Week 4 - Box's Results

Week 4 Box results:

Results for Week 4

Spread: MIN +2 (-105) v. GB - $7.44 wins $0.00

Moneyline: GB (-130) v. MIN - $7.62 wins $13.48

Spread: BUF +3.5 (-105) v. NYJ - $9.87 wins $19.27

Moneyline: NYJ (-190) v. BUF - $5.20 wins $0.00

Spread: CIN +7.5 (-105) v. NE - $7.18 wins $0.00

Moneyline: NE (-330) v. CIN - $7.89 wins $10.28

Parlay: MIN +2 (-105) v. GB, PHI -3 (105) v. NYG, TB +3 (-120) v. CAR - $5.00 wins $0.00

Parlay: PIT (-260) v. ARI, NE (-330) v. CIN, TB (140) v. CAR, DET (130) v. CHI - $5.00 wins $0.00

Spread: OAK +4.5 (-105) v. MIA - $5.00 wins $9.76

Results for Week 4
Bet Totals:	$60.20
Potential Winnings:	$115.57
Potential Payouts:	$52.79
Actual Profit:	-$7.41
%s: Week 4	-12.31%

Week 4 - Your Box Might Be Right, But I Am Righterer

First, some musings:

I. Seattle scares the snot out of me. We were both nervous last week,
I picked them anyway, and they didn't cover. Once again, I'm nervous
about the SF game, yet here we are both picking Seattle to cover. I
even specifically said the following: "I will pick against Seattle
from now on if they are favored, and with them if they are 'dogs". I
may need a substitute here.

II. The box went 2-1-1 last week
with the top 4, and the WAS game I want to call a fluke. So I think I
need to suck it and promote some of the box's picks into my top area.
Especially considering your advice that I am heavy on the big
favorites. I'm thinking the oakland game, since we both agree on that
one, plus I'm hedged with my moneyline mia pick.

III.
My gut substitutions with favorites did well. NE covered at -17, Car
covered at -4, Indy pushed at -6, NYJ pushed at -3. This tempers my II
above, gotta have faith in real-time information and a reality check
outside the numbers.

IV. Baltimore is a dangerous team to bet
with. I was so sure ARI wouldn't come close last week, but sure enough
Bal had to come from behind and win, but not cover the spread. Here we
go again with my being positive CLE can't get close. I think I need to
demote this game.

V. Buffalo is worse than anyone thinks. And
that's saying a lot because most think they suck. I'm sticking to my
guns here and leaving NYJ over Buf at #2.


1. gb over min -1.5
2. nyj over buf -3.5
3. oak over mia +4 --> promotion to get one of the box's favorites in my top 3, plus add an underdog; see observation II
4. phi over nyg -3 --> promotion - the box loves this pick. see observation II.
5.
bal over cle -4.5 --> demotion based on observation IV above. Plus
the box picks CLE to cover, which it has done successfully two weeks in
a row.
6. ne over cin -7
7. sd over kc -11.5
8. det over chi +3
9.
tb over car +3 --> substitution for sea over sf -2. not only did we
say last week that it was time to take tb seriously, but we get a
chance to pick them as an underdog, and the box loves them too. Plus I
can follow observation I above.

TMC

Week 4 - Box's Final Bets

Box's final locked in bets for Week 4:

Bets for Week 4

Spread: MIN +2 (-105) v. GB - $7.44 to win $7.09

Moneyline: GB (-130) v. MIN - $7.62 to win $5.86

Spread: BUF +3.5 (-105) v. NYJ - $9.87 to win $9.40

Moneyline: NYJ (-190) v. BUF - $5.20 to win $2.74

Spread: CIN +7.5 (-105) v. NE - $7.18 to win $6.84

Moneyline: NE (-330) v. CIN - $7.89 to win $2.39

Parlay: MIN +2 (-105) v. GB, PHI -3 (105) v. NYG, TB +3 (-120) v. CAR - $5.00 to win $31.69

Parlay: PIT (-260) v. ARI, NE (-330) v. CIN, TB (140) v. CAR, DET (130) v. CHI - $5.00 to win $44.80

Spread: OAK +4.5 (-105) v. MIA - $5.00 to win $4.76

Bet Totals:	$60.20
Potential Winnings:	$115.57

Week 4 - Hedging Sounds Like Balls

HEDGING: so basically in order to come up on top you need the favorite to win, but not cover the spread. If they win and cover, your losses probably are cut in half, right? Figure a $10 bet on each... Moneyline bet wins $5, spread loses $10, for a net of -$5.
ok, so here's where i'm thinking it's not such a good idea.... Had you just bet the moneyline, you would have not lost the $10 on the spread, for a net gain of $5. Now assume the opposite happens and the moneyline bet loses, so you win your spread pick. You win maybe $9 on your spread, and lose $10 on the moneyline for a net of -$1. Now assume you actually hit the middle ground and win both for a net of +$14. OK so now let's assume each scenario is equally likely to happen, you're expected winnings are:

1/3(-$-5) + 1/3($-1) + 1/3($14) = +$2.67.... holy shit. it came out positive... ok, surely someone who's been doing this longer than us has figured this out already, right? Are you plugging in the potential losses/winnings into your formula? in theory you could predict your expected winnings assuming that each scenario is just as likely as the others... then again, maybe this is the flaw. Is it really just as likely that you hit the blessed middle ground as it is that the winner cover, losing your spread bid? Consider this... the spread is designed to make it 50-50 chance that the dog will cover. If 1/2 the time they don't cover, that means that in the above scenario the odds of netting -$5 is 1/2, not 1/3, shifting expectations to:

1/2(-$5) + 1/4($-1) + 1/4($14) = -10/4-1/4+14/4 = +$0.75

ok, this is still interesting to me since it stayed positive, but since it is so close to zero, the actual payouts are critical here. I bet it can end up negative with larger lays. Plus there is one last bit of analysis i've left out... If the 'dog does cover half the time, what percentage of those games does the 'dog actually upset the favorite? This would shift expectations again. I would think you could look up this information... either use the historical percentage for head-ups upsets, or take it a step further to weigh that figure based on specific teams playing. This seems like a job for the BOX!

Having said all that... even assuming the above formula holds, a long term return of .75% return is pretty crappy, and to see any payoffs that were exciting (say... winning $50 on a weekend), you're bankroll has to be kinda high. In fact, it would take over $500 in gambling to win $50 in this scenario.

Unless you come up with some unbeatable system, I think the fun factor (i.e. potential big payoff) keeps my interest in the parlays.

-TMC-

Week 4 - The Averager, a Gambling Superhero?

Ok, so I did something pretty cool I think. I cross averaged the boxes
best winning percentage picks over the last year and a half for the
moneyline and spread. Meaning, I found out I win 90% (that's right,
NINETY) of my 11th ranked spread pick, but I only win 42% of my 11th
ranked moneyline pick - so I've started averaging the two picks to get
the highest percentage combos I can get. This way I either get a decent
hedge in a win/lose scenario, a great week on a win/win, and a tough one
on lose/lose.

So here is my list:

Top 4 Spread/Moneyline Combos (spreads first, then moneylines):

BUF+3.5 (90% pick historically!), NYJ -190
STL+12.5, DAL (which is currently OFF, so I might not be able to bet
this one)
CIN +7, NE -330 (terrible payout on NE win, but it's almost a lock)
ATL +2.5, HOU -150

First impressions: I obviously haven't figured in the lay properly yet,
but it's a start. Plus I like the picks - all but the Atlanta pick, but
frankly, that one's not so bad either. I just no very little about
either teams' playing style. Typically, AFC over NFC (which bears out
in that pick), but home dog on the spread. Either way, I'm fairly hedged.

Top parlay combos:

PHI, MIN, SF (with Plaxico possibly injured, could be a lock on Philly -
this is the 1/2/3 conviction picks)
BUF, ATL, SF (this is the 1/2/3 win percentage picks)

Frankly, I like this new system picks. I avoid the terrible games
(KC/SD weirdness, ARI/PIT weirdness, CLE covering any spread weirdness).

--------------------------------- crappy disclaimer: I just looked up
the spreads, and CAR is -3 rather than OFF. This changed all my picks
and convictions. Here are the NEW picks after entering the spread so
you can see how the Box readjusts.

Top 4 Spread/Moneyline Combos (spreads first, then moneylines):

OAK+4 (90% pick historically!), MIA -230
TB +3, TB (apparently, the Box hearts TB)
STL+12.5, DAL
ARI +6, PIT -260 (damn, I do NOT heart this game)

Top parlay combos:

TB, PHI, MIN (this is the 1/2/3 conviction picks)
OAK, STL, SD (this is the 1/2/3 win percentage picks)

So, all my previous commentary is pointless. The Box switches
conviction as spreads change, it's part of the danger of moving
averages. I actually don't hate these picks, and I liked TB to win
before the spread was announced anyway.

My thought on yours is it's very very favorite heavy on the top
spreads... historically, this does not pan out as the season goes on.
That said, this season has been a favorite heavy season, so who knows.
As to the moneyline, the whole key will be the lay I think. The payout
on NE is 330 wins 100. That's TERRIBLE. Basically, you get 30% return
for your money. So that's the real game - there's no money in easy
favorites. Which means I have to teach the system to base it's
convictions on lays as well - maximum payouts for minimum risk. For
instance, I think PHI is basically a lock this week, and it's paying out
140/100. That's more than DOUBLE the NE payout, and should therefore be
ranked higher. I'll have to program it... so much to do.

Week 4 - The Mad Capper's Game Rankings

ok, I've cross-checked the lists and come up with my preliminary rankings and parlays.

Moneyline:

1. ne over cin
2. gb over min
3. dal over stl
4. sd over kc
5. bal over cle
6. nyj over buf
7. ind over den
8. pit over ari
9. mia over oak

So you may have noticed I stuck to my guns on this one. we agreed on most of them, but i had to stick with NE, DAL, and SD. The one switch I made was to drop the Hou vs Atl game in favor of mia vs oak. This is my experiment with picking the favorite in the moneyline, and picking the 'dog in the spread. So according to these rankings, my parlays will be:

[ne-gb-dal] [ne-sd-bal] [gb-nyj-ind] [dal-pit-mia] [ne-gb-dal-sd-bal-nyj]

Spread:

(depending on what the TB v CAR spread comes in at, they could be included here)
1. gb over min -1.5
2. nyj over buf -3.5
3. bal over cle -4.5
4. ne over cin -7
5. oak over mia +4
6. sea over sf -2
7. sd over kc -11.5
8. phi over nyg -3
9. det over chi +3

I really wanted to factor the spread box in here, but had a really tough time with your top picks. So actually my top 4 thumb their noses at the box, betting completely the opposite direction, plus i avoided your top rated games. So I decided that I would stick with the box the rest of the way to try to make amends. Note that one of the riskier TMC-picks is ne over cin. i decided not to do the genius-maneuver here (like with oak v mia), and just bet the pats when i saw that the spread had come down half a point to 7. Now that the pats can win by a touchdown and tie, i just can't bet against them. I honestly had no clue what to do with bets 5-9, so i'm really counting on the box to pull through here. Anyway, this is how the parlays will shake out:

[gb-nyj-bal] [gb-ne-oak] [nyj-sea-sd] [bal-phi-det] [gb-nyj-bal-ne-oak-sea]

Whew. That's a lot of work for one day.

-TMC-

Week 4 - The Capper Commentary - Part Deuce

Wow.

You've got some craaaaazy stuff going on here with your money line bets. I love your idea of spreading risk by picking a 'dog to cover the spread, and the favorite to win the moneyline. when i read that, i thought "this is the smartest thing i've ever heard"... stroke of genius, buddy. really.

i'm going to do twice as many parlays using half-bets, so i am going to have a 5-parlay set devoted to moneylining. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. OK, so my comments on your moneyline picks:

1. NYJ - I like this one, it is my #6.

2. SEA - This didn't make my top 9, but i agree with you. I won't be betting this one, though.

3. GB - love this one, it's my #2.

4. KC - you are crazy. your #4 confidence is that KC beats SD??? i think you need to recheck this one, since you have SD covering the spread on your other box.
--->6th grade sense of humor alert: we should refer to the two systems as the "spread box" and the "money box" - get it? it's like vagina. eh heh heh, heh heh... shut up, beavis... oh man, i need more sleep.

5. HOU - squeaked in at my #9, we are in agreement here.

6. BAL - I like this one also, at #4.

7. MIA - this is one where you like oakland to cover the spread, but mia to win (see 'smartest thing..ever' comment above). This didn't make my top 9, though.

8. PHI - doesn't make my top 9. I don't like this game at all, both teams have multiple personality syndrome.

9. IND - I have this game slightly higher at #7.

10. TB - Didn't make my top 9, but i agree TB should win.

11. DET - Also didn't make my top 9. I think i'm gonna stay away.

12. PIT - I like PIT to win here, and they made it in for me at #8.

13. NE - This is where you start to get silly - This is my #1 game of the week. no WAY CIN's defense stops NE this week. no way. In other news, by including this game in the betting, you can pick CIN to cover the spread in a separate bet.

14. DAL - Again... c'mon, what are you doing here? last? the spread is like 12! I love dallas in this game at my #3 spot. Also an opportunity to pick DAL here and STL to cover the huge spread later.

Double check your money box, i think you've got some holes. particularly #4, 13-14. In any case I'm going to try to reconcile my own favorites with yours here and put together a final top 9.

-TMC-

Week 4 - The Capper Commentary - Part Un

Comments on the spread box...

1. PHI -3 @ NYG - This is a risky game to me (see above), but i have no problem with your pick.

2. MIN +1.5 @ GB - I have to disagree with you here... this is my #1 pick of the week. Did you see MIN suck it last week vs KC? Oh man it was sad. Kelly Holcomb just got to town like 15 days ago, and he isn't that good to start off with. Huard to Bowe (who? yeah, exactly) looked like montana to rice out there. Contract that with GBs solid win vs SD last week and few injuries, and only giving 1.5 points... i think this is a gimme so much i already locked in the pick in fear that the spread might change as the week goes on.

3. SEA -2 @ SF - Another risky game i think. I like SEA here, too. But probably not as a #3.

4. DET +3 v CHI - This one kinda scares me too... at first i thought det based on the records, then thought chi, since det hasn't beaten a good team yet, plus rex is benched. then i remembered that lance briggs, mike brown and a couple other defensive starters are injured. so maybe i go back to detroit... i dunno, man, so i'll rely on the box. but again, not this high.

5. ARI +6 v PIT - This is deja vu - very similar to last week's dilemma on how to handle ARI vs BAL. Last week ARI covered, despite what i thought, so i am tempted to bet with the box this week, even though my gut told me go with PIT, who have the #2 defense, and are scoring on the ground and in the air. Not sure what to do here.

6. CIN +7.5 v NE - I gotta tell you, I think NE is gonna cover this spread. howver, I love the idea of picking with you here, and then picking NE to win the moneyline. Damn your genius ideas. This was my #4 pick, that's how much i like NE to cover.... damn damn damn.

7. STL +11.5 @ DAL- oh these big spreads drive me crazy. steven jackson is out, bulger is in but playing with 2 broken ribs, 2 of their starting OL are out, and they have been pounded by every team they've played. Yet you want to pick them to cover against DAL, who is just blowing people out? at Dallas? Me and the spread box are clearly having issues this week.

8. ATL +2.5 v HOU- another disagreement. HOU is playing great ball, and even without A. Johnson, they got within a touchdown of Indy. The spread is so small I think I go with HOU here, unless you think ATL is going to upset?

9. CLE +4.5 v BAL - I am 100% against you here. This is my #2 pick, and no way CLE upsets BAL like it did to CIN. CIN had no defense. Terell Suggs and Bart Scott are going to get 4 combined sacks, Derek Anderson throws 3 picks.

10. OAK +4 @ MIA- hey! we agree! i don't like mia, and oakland seems to be playing tough. I like the 4 points, too.

11. BUF +3.5 v NYJ - Dammit man, this is my #3. How is it possible that we disagree completely on my top 4? Buffalo just lost losman, and is forced to start their rookie, plus their hotshot rookie linebacker paul polyzcudkslksdfmsky. NYJ are better than their record. Playoff team last year and losses to NE and BAL are not something to get upset about.

12. DEN +9.5 @ IND - again, i hate these big spreads. my gut says indy covers, but i'll follow you on this one.

13. SD -11.5 v KC- amazing. the box picked a huge favorite. and i agree. SD explodes this week after being embarrassed two weeks in a row.

14. TB OFF @ CAR - I like TB to win, i'm very curious what the spread is here. If CAR is favored this could become a big pick.

-TMC-

Week 4 - First Impressions - Hedging Risk Like a Sally

On to the Money Line

The ML is interesting in that, no matter how I narrow the parameters,
the results are mixed. I have good weeks and bad, but I average 58%
over the last two seasons if I pick teams that are predicted to win that
are playing at home. If I do a pure "who will win" over the entire
league, I'm at 55%. Mediocre, but still profitable. When I saw this, I
needed to know which picks were historically stronger picks. This is
where it gets interesting.

For some reason, picks 10-16 (depending on Bye weeks) average a whopping
67%. Picks 12-16 are at 70%, and picks 15-16 are at a ridiculous 75%
correct. The most convicted picks are not so good. Which makes me
think the way I am measuring conviction is wrong, but I'll change that
up later. For now, here are the list of picks:

1. NYJ
2. SEA
3. GB
4. KC
5. HOU
6. BAL
7. MIA
8. PHI
9. IND
10. TB
11. DET
12. PIT
13. NE
14. DAL

Already, I can see it makes sense to combine this with spreads and limit
my risk. GB is the only one in my top 5, but if I combine some of the
other spreads, I can take NYJ to win and BUF to cover, NE to win and CIN
to cover... etc.

-MTB-

Week 4 - Box's First Impressions - Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.

Trust me, you won't like the box this week. I don't like the box this
week, either. So much so that I'm running TWO boxes concurrently right
now to see which one performs better. I like the methods of my newer
system (the thinking makes more sense), but I like the picks of the
original system (you'll see what I mean). I also added a Money Line
component, which is sweet - I might start picking the top 4 spreads and
their coinciding Money Lines to either a.) double up, or b.) offset any
losses. I'll give you some ML picks after the spreads.

Box 1 (the new and improved) says (in order of conviction):
1. PHI -3 @ NYG
2. MIN +1.5 @ GB
3. SEA -2 @ SF
4. DET +3 v CHI
5. ARI +6 v PIT
6. CIN +7.5 v NE
7. STL +11.5 @ DAL
8. ATL +2.5 v HOU
9. CLE +4.5 v BAL
10. OAK +4 @ MIA
11. BUF +3.5 v NYJ
12. DEN +9.5 @ IND
13. SD -11.5 v KC
14. TB OFF @ CAR

Now, before I start in with the "what the hell???" on some of these
picks, there are some good explanations. PHI is the lock of the week by
the system, though it will be closer than the system thinks. MIN is a
close second, and I think there's a good reason GB isn't a lock. First,
historically, Favre sucks balls at MIN. Second, MIN's D is much better
(surprisingly) than SD, and MIN running game has been much better. This
game will be a pretty grueling game I think. The system predicts GB
winning by 1 on the ML side, so cross my fingers the stats know what
they're talking about.

The 3rd pick makes me more nervous than the first two. SEA
traditionally has a hard time in SF, and their games are always very
very close. I'm comforted by how badly Alex Smith is playing, but it'll
be a game of defense I think. And I like SF's D better. Especially at
home. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised to lose this bet.

Now we get to crazy. DET? The system, in fact, says that DET should be
FAVORED by 3, not getting 3. That seems to be ridiculous. I think
Griese will be better than Grossman for sure, but I just can't imagine
DET able to stop a baby in a stroller after last weeks blowout. The ARI
pick is OK by me, I have few convictions either way, though PIT is
playing amazing football, tough not to see it being a 7 point game. CIN
is your classic "Home Dog" pick. I'm just hoping it's a garbage TD that
covers for CIN. CIN is the pick on both systems, so it's a pretty
strong pick.

STL, another dog pick, mostly because the spread is high. I can't
imagine DAL not winning by at least 10, so another cross my fingers.
The rest of the picks are all totally conceivable, despite picking SD.
The SD pick is a mean regression pick more than the system thinking SD
will cover - in fact, the system predicts KC WINNING by 1, but SD has
fallen so far below it's range, the system is trained to assume they can
get back into their range until the range changes.

-MTB-

Week 4 - Lock in GB

I already locked in my first parlay... [bal - gb - nyj]..... GB's spread over MIN is only 1.5, i wanted to get it in before everyone bet on GB and the spread moved. This has to be the biggest gimme of the week.

I like my top four picks:

1. GB over MIN (-1.5)
2. BAL over CLE (-4.5)
3. NYJ over MIA (-3.5)
4. NE over CIN (-7.5)

...But the rest is a toss up. I need the box! gotta round off my 5-9 picks! or maybe this is the week to stick with only 6 teams? hmm... i'll wait to see what you come up with.

PPS I think i've made up my mind... I'm going 1/2 bets and doing two different sets of 5 parlays. One set will be the same as last week, and the second set will be money line bets. Here are my top nine for moneyline:

1. pats over cin
2. gb over min
3. dal over stl
4. bal over cle
5. sd over kc
6. nyj over buf
7. ind over den
8. pit over ari
9. hou over atl

Overall I am way more comfortable with my moneyline bets.

-TMC-

Week 4 - Brewing New Parlay Systems

ok, so i had to babysit these surveyors at one of our jobsites today... so basically i sat in my car all day and brainstormed different parlay systems.... fantastic use of company time.

so last week i used my top 9 and put together 4 3-team parlays in descending confidence, plus a 6 team parlay using my top 6:

(a) [1-3] [1,4,5] [2,6,7] [3,8,9], [1-6]

Then i thought.. why not make 1/2 bets (in mycase $5 instead of $10), and make twice as many bets - just rearranging the order so that if my combinations don't work, i'll have another whole set that could work out. basically still use the parlays above, plus:

(b) [1,2,4] [1,6,8] [2,4,9] [3,5,7], [4-9]

i think statistics go against me with this theory, though. I now need to win twice as many parlays to meet the same payoff, plus the second set of parlays is less likely to occur (according to my preference list). so on second thought i think this is not a good idea. i'm curious on your thoughts, though.

Another idea i had was to use the original set, only instead of my 6-team parlay, use two 6-team parlays with half bets. these are the long shots anyway, so why not mix up the team combinations and have two shots at the big payoff? maybe something like this:

(c) [1-6]; [4-9] or [1-3,7-9] or [my six favorite 'gut feeling picks']

Lastly i thought about reducing the pool of teams i'm betting on from 9 to 6. This way i'm only dealing with my 6 favorites:

(d) [1-3] [1,4,5] [2,3,6] [4,5,6] [1-6]

This one has some promise, i think. This yields the same results as (a) if one of my top 3 loses. but it costs me two parlays instead of one parlay if 4-6 lose. So on the one hand, i'm not risking any parlays with 7-9 picks, but if 4-6 lose, each one costs me two parlays. and there are deadly combos that kill the whole thing such as 2,5 losing or 1,4 losing.... man the more i think about this the more i dislike it.... anyway...

On to moneyline betting....
I think i love this. I am badass at predicting straight up winners. last week i was 11-5, and nailed 8 out of my top 9. If the payouts are similar to point spread parlays, i think i'm gonna try it out this week. Interesting that the box is good at picking spreads, and i am better at picking straight-up winners.... there has to be a way to use this to our advantage...

-TMC-

Week 3 - Box's Bets

*backdated ranking based on 11/12/97 models
The Rankings - Spread
THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. NYJ +10 v. BAL Away - Bet Soon	35.0
2. GB +1 v. NYG Away	36.5
3. WAS +7 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon	41.5
4. OAK +10 v. DEN Away - Bet Soon	40.0
5. NO -4 v. TB @Home	33.5
6. ATL +10.5 v. JAC @Home	37.5
7. CLE +7 v. CIN @Home - Bet Soon	37.0
8. MIA +4 v. DAL @Home	45.0
9. HOU +7 v. CAR Away - Bet Soon	45.5
10. TEN +7.5 v. IND @Home	46.0
11. BUF +10 v. PIT Away - Bet Soon	43.5
12. MIN +3.5 v. DET Away	46.5
13. NE -4 v. SD @Home	49.0
14. KC +13 v. CHI Away - Bet Soon	35.5
15. SEA -3 v. ARI @Home - Bet Soon	44.0
16. SF +3 v. STL @Home - Bet Soon	38.5

Week 4 - Box and Moneyline are Not Making Sweet Love

I thought about moneyline, thinking it would be much easier to nail with
the system. So in one of my furious idea sketches, I removed the spread
equations and picked just winners and losers: since the 2006 season, I
hit on 44% of the time. Terrible. It at least makes me feel good about
my spread analysis, it must be adding value since I can't pick a winner
at all. I'd do better if I flipped a fucking coin!

Maybe if I limit it to just underdogs... or just favorites... or just
home or away teams... maybe I'd get better results. I'll try it, but it
looks pretty balls.

-MTB-

Week 3 - Postgame Analaysis

Well I'm fairly satisfied with the results this week. I did win one parlay, my 1, 2, 3 (Dal, GB, Car). This win covered my other bets, plus netted me $20.

The big help the Black Box gave me was solidifying my top 3. We agreed on Dallas and GB, but I wouldn't have had them so high without cross-referencing them with your list. My huge decision this week was to move MIN down out of the top 3, despite the fact that we both had them covering, when I read that T. Jackson was injured. I slid my personal #1 choice into the #3 spot (CAR), even though the box didn't have them covering. So the combination of using my personal calls and crossing them with the box seems to have worked out well.

As for the big losers this week:

(1) MIN doesn't cover vs. KC- I definitely need to do more analysis besides "KC just sucks". This one looked like it was going my way most of the game, but KC pulled it out at the end. I should have backed out of this game when I heard the starting QB was out.

(2) WAS loses to NYG- This seems to be one of those upsets that will happen every week. We both felt WAS would cover the spread, so I think this one I just have to live with.

(3) DET doesn't cover vs PHI- man this game was insane. I think I'd make the same bet next time. Once again we agreed, but just got beat. I don't know who would have seen PHI put up 56 points this week after their first two showings.

(4) STL loses to TB- I think it's time to take TB seriously. This is one of those games I just didn't trust STL's prior poor play or TB's prior good play. TB lost to WAS (a good team), beat NO and STL, so they are gonna be a part of my betting system now, if Vegas still has them as underdogs for a while. As for STL, I think I'm staying away from them. They can win any day of the week, but are just as likely to lay and egg like they have the first 3 weeks.

(5) SEA doesn't cover vs CIN- I am getting the feeling SEA isn't going to blow out many teams this year, so with tight spreads I'm going to pick against them if they are favored, and with them if they are the 'dog. I don't think you had them covering, either.

A couple games pushed this week, which is a little weird. Mia vs NYJ, IND vs HOU come to mind. Both of which we disagreed on.

Anyway, my $55 won me me $75, so there's a %36 return on investment this week. Not great, but with a couple tweeks in my parlay system I think I can up it in the next couple weeks.

-TMC-

Week 3 - The Mad Capper's Bets Locked-In

ok, so i mixed it up just a little:

1. DAL over CHI (+3) - Agreement;
2. GB over SD (+6) - Agreement;
3. (upgraded from 6) CAR over ATL (-4) - The Box disagrees, but I don't think ATL can cover;
4. MIN over KC (+3) - Agreement;
5. SEA over CIN (-3.5) - Not in your top 9, but we agree will cover;
6. (upgraded from 7) WAS over NYG (-3.5) - High on your list, low on mine, but we agree so it's in.
7. IND over HOU (-6) - Gut feeling pick here. I just think Indy is too good not to cover.
8. DET over PHI (+6) - Not in your top 9, but we agree will cover;
9. STL over TB (+3.5) - Not in your top 9, but we agree will cover.

Parlay Bets:
[DAL - GB - CAR] X $10.00 to win $64.42
[DAL - MIN - SEA] X $10.00 to win $63.80
[GB - WAS - IND] X $10.00 to win $58.24
[CAR - DET - STL] X $10.00 to win $58.24
[SEA - IND - WAS - DET - STL - MIN] X $10.00 to win $451.80
[NE - OAK - BAL - NYJ - JAX - TN] X $5.00 to win $233.49

I think i like betting on as many of the games as possible. Gotta figure out a way to maximize comfort/payout and minimize overlapping....

-TMC-

Week 3 - Box Results

This is the first week of the Box being online, and the results are in! Drumroll.... mediocrity!!

Results for Week 3

Spread: DAL +3 (-115) v. CHI - $14.48 wins $27.07

Spread: WAS -3.5 (-115) v. NYG - $13.00 wins $0.00

Spread: MIA +3 (-105) v. NYJ - $11.38 wins $11.38

Spread: TEN +4.5 (-105) v. NO - $11.14 wins $21.75

Parlay: TEN +4.5 (-105) v. NO, WAS -3.5 (-115) v. NYG, DAL +3 (-115) v. CHI - $5.00 wins $0.00

Results for Week 3
Bet Totals:	$55.00
Potential Winnings:	$75.00
Potential Payouts:	$60.20
Actual Profit:	$5.20
%s: Week 3	9.45%

Week 3 - Box's Final Bets

Week 3, the first week the Box is online. Bets are LOCKED and READY TO ROLL!

Bets for Week 3

Spread: DAL +3 (-115) v. CHI - $14.48 to win $12.59

Spread: WAS -3.5 (-115) v. NYG - $13.00 to win $11.30

Spread: MIA +3 (-105) v. NYJ - $11.38 to win $11.38

Spread: TEN +4.5 (-105) v. NO - $11.14 to win $10.61

Parlay: TEN +4.5 (-105) v. NO, WAS -3.5 (-115) v. NYG, DAL +3 (-115) v. CHI - $5.00 to win $29.12

Bet Totals:	$55.00
Potential Winnings:	$75.00

Week 3 - Postgame Analysis, Piece of Crap?

The results are in: I almost suck, but not quite.

My parlay bet (thank you WAS) went balls up, but I nailed DAL and TEN,
so I was up $10 on my $50 (a 20% return). MIA had the Jets for a minute
there, but the box can't predict Pennington's return - I should figure
out some sort of minimal override for major injuries, because I got hurt
twice on them (see MIN below). Pure box on all 16 games (had I bet them
all) would have broken even. I haven't come close to perfecting a
parlay predictor, I think that's a long ways off. As to the losers:

1. Well, I'm with you on MIN. And I went beyond "KC sucks asshats". I
went pure stats, and MIN still came up short. I way underestimated the
impact of Tavaris - I figure sub a mediocre rookie for a mediocre old
guy and it's relatively the same difference. But KC got the benefit of
it, despite only having LJ manage 1.8 yd per carry. I think this one
was a pure statistical miss - an any given sunday loss.

2. WAS is a real bummer. That was just poor coaching. Chance to tie
the game, 1st and goal, and Clinton Portis is SITTING ON THE SIDELINE.
You run Ladell Betts twice??? What are you thinking???? When the game
is on the line, play the best players. Santana Moss and Campbell have
zero chemistry this year, either, and Randle El is not a sufficient
number 1 to step up. WAS is a better team than this, but they are the
NFC's Jacksonville: always play up or down to the competition. NYG are
just woeful - any AFC team would thomp them. Terrible loss, the stats
will reflect the poor play and playcalling next week.

3. DET. What? I mean... what? You got beat by a team dressed as
professional ice skaters? Worst. Throwbacks. Ever.

4. I agree, TB will need to be taken more seriously. It will be
reflected in the stats. Though, to be fair, STL has been overrated
since day one. Bulger is getting older, and getting sacked 30+ times a
year can't help the decision making. TB is younger (except for Garcia),
and they're playing weaker teams. They may be a playoff sleeper if they
keep this up.

5. This was a good pick to take SEA, I think, and just a close game
that didn't pan (spreadwise, anyway). AFC usually has an edge versus
the NFC, and CIN made a cross country trip, so it was a good to pick
against them. Next week, CIN will be 18 pt dogs versus NE, so it'll be
hard not to take them as such big dogs.

Actually, that brings me to a worrisome point on the system - it clearly
favors the dog. This season, favorites with big spreads seem to be
covering, which is unusual. I'm hoping the stats catch up to the trends
or the teams regress to the mean, but if it keeps up, I could be in for
a hurting season.

I'm adding the 2005 season stats this week, so I'll have another huge
data source to draw from. I'll give you a call around Wed/Thurs to do
another comparison.

I f*ing love football.

-MTB-

Week 3 - The Box and the "9 Team Parlay"

Ok, so first things first: I opened my **** account, paid my
$50, and am running my money this week on my top 4. My top 4 on the box
over the last 2 years have averaged between 66-70% winning vs the
spread, the best of all my picks. So I just bet the spreads on my top 4
(DAL, WAS, MIA, and TEN), and I did a $5 parlay on my top three.

That was before I did a parlay study tonight. I probably should have
done the study first.

Last year, the system picked over 70% correct for my number one and two
ranked choice. Number three was a 64% win rate. After that, it got
ugly. For whatever reason, picks 4-7 are TERRIBLE. My fifth rank pick
rocked last year with a 23% win rate. I have to figure out why, suffice
to say it was ugly. Then, arbitrarily it seems, my 11th and 13th ranked
picks won over 70% as well. So next parlay I do will be the 1, 2, 11,
and 13 (this week, it would have been DAL, WAS, PIT, and CLE).

In terms of your picks, I can't fault you for some of your switches. I
agree with you on CAR, and I think you may be right on HOU too, despite
the home dog rule. Based on the 9 you chose, the system says the top 3
parlays are:

1. DAL - WAS - DET (1, 2, 11)
2. DAL - MIN - GB (1, 6, 7)
3. WAS - GB - DET (2, 7, 11)
4. SEA - STL - WAS (12, 14, 2)
5. This one can be a medley of your favorites.

That's based on the 9 you chose. This way, you have a 1or 2 in each
(high percentage), a middle, and a lower percentage. Spread your risk
out I say.

That's what I would suggest. Or that's what the system suggests. Or
that's what the overlords that control my brain suggest.

Hmmm... indeed.

-MTB-

Week 3 - Non Box Wager Rankings and Parlays

OK so i've got my first draft ready. I basically made my own preference list, took the 6 games we agreed on, then threw in 3 from my list that I am more confident in than the Box's predictions to round out a top 9. I wanted to mix up my 6-team parlay a little bit so that it wasn't completely comprised of teams from the 3-team parlays (and avoid one or two games screwing up all the parlays), so I I'm taking NE to cover the 17 point spread with buffalo.

1. DAL over CHI (+3) - Agreement;
2. GB over SD (+6) - Agreement;
3. MIN over KC (+3) - Agreement;
4. SEA over CIN (-3.5) - Not in your top 9, but we agree will cover;
5. IND over HOU (-6) - Gut feeling pick here. I just think Indy is too good not to cover.
6. CAR over ATL (-4) - The Box disagrees, but I don't think ATL can cover;
7. WAS over NYG (-3.5) - High on your list, low on mine, but we agree so it's in.
8. DET over PHI (+6) - Not in your top 9, but we agree will cover;
9. STL over TB (+3.5) - Not in your top 9, but we agree will cover.

Parlays:

1. DAL - GB - MIN
2. DAL - SEA - IND
3. GB - CAR - WAS
4. MIN - DET - STL
5. DAL - NE - MIN - SEA - IND - CAR (replaced GB with NE, in case the 2006 Chargers show up and blow out the packers, plus it's fun to root, root, root for the home team).

-TMC-

Week 3 - 9 Team Parlay Experiment Redux

I'm gonna take the 7 we agreed on, and then pick two favorites out of the remainders. From your list, that looks like MIA and TN, two games that I hate. Let's see what are your next two.. DEN and PIT... that's a little better.


-TMC-

Week 3 - How Does the Box Handle Injuries?

The box doesn't take into account real time injuries (ie, if we find out
this week that A. Johnson is out, or C. Pennington will be playing now),
but it does take them into account if they happen in a game and are
clear that a player will be out. It will take into account cutting
Charlie Frye for the next week's stats. So that's definitely a flaw in
the system, but it's not really possible to alter the data that quickly,
especially without knowing if who's filling in can do as good a job.

-MTB-

Week 3 - PIT Will Cover, Mark My Words

Comments on some of the pick differences - PIT, statistically, is the
second best team in the league. Granted, they played the Browns and
Buffalo, but SF is waaay overrated by their 2 wins. They are a bit
confused with the new system, and Alex Smith has no sense of the field
whatsoever. He's so amped up, all his passes are flying over reciever's
heads. They have all the pieces to be good, but when SF is flying
across the country to play a powerhouse AFC team with a young
quarterback, I think PIT can cover.

I agree on your CAR assessment, I'm gonna stay away from that game. ATL
really has no team to speak of, with or without Vick, and Carolina seems
to be getting it back together. The running game is suspect, though.

I'll run the parlay stuff tonight if I can, maybe tomorrow.

-MTB-

Week 3 - Your 9 Team Parlay Is Questionable

I like your parlay concept a lot, actually, mostly from a fun
standpoint. Statistically, there's a reason vegas pays out more on
parlays - they have low odds. First, let me give you the top 9 by the box:

1. DAL
2. WAS
3. MIA
4. TEN
5. DEN
6. MIN
7. GB
8. PIT
9. BUF

My spreads were slightly different than yours, so I'd have to enter them
again before I placed bets to be sure those picks stand. I actually
agree with most of them, though the MIA pick makes me nervous and I
definitely feel your pain on the NE pick. My solace with such a big
spread is that by the 4th quarter, NE could be up 23 points and Buf
could score on a meaningless drive and cover.

I'm going to run a test on the parlays, see how many of those combos
paid out last year according to the boxes picks. I'm going to guess you lose money and that your ideas are weak and pathetic. We shall see. Mwah ha ha ha!

-MTB-

Week 3 - 9 Team Parlay System

We agreed on 7 of the games (den vs jax pending). This is interesting to me because it's almost enough to do some really fun things with parlays. After ranking the games in terms of confidence, I'm thinking of organizing a parlay system something along these lines:

[team 1, 2, 3]
[team 1, 4, 5]
[team 2, 6, 7]
[team 3, 8, 9]
[team 1- team 6]

So basically we've got 5 parlay bets at $10/ea = $50/week betting money.

Last week: 3-team parlays were paying out 5 to 1;
and 6-team parlays were paying out 38:1.

So basically if 1 of the 4 3-team parlays hits, you are covered. Everything else is gravy, plus you got the big kahuna 6-team parlay for the big bucks. I tried to minimize overlap so that one or two games won't blow the whole shebang. The key is to nail your top 3 picks.

-TMC-

Week 3 - Box My A**

(1) NYJ vs MIA (-3): Small spread, so I can see going either way, but I just have zero faith in Miami.

(2) PIT vs SF (-9): My problem here is that PIT hasn't beaten anyone of value yet, so a 9 point spread is a reach IMO.

(3) ARI vs BAL (+8): You may be right about this one. Definitely one I'm staying away from.

(4) CLE vs OAK (+3): BEWARE! the brownies will not score enough points against the raiders. OAK has a killer D, and they are actually scoring points this year on offense. I have to stick with my Oakland pick here.

(5) ATL vs CAR (+4): Man I have to question the Box on this one. Carolina is only giving four points against Atlanta, a team with serious quarterback issues, off-field controversy, and a new coach. CAR is a legit NFC threat, with running, QB, defense and Steve Smith.

(6) TN vs NO (+4): You've made excellent points here. I'm staying clear of this game too.

(7) HOU vs IND (+6.5): I do like the home 'dog theory, I'm gonna use that from now on. However, Houston has been able to score mainly bcause of A. Johnson. Trust me, he's on my fantasy team and he's been unstoppable. He is injured, and now there's no way Indy doesn't thump them. Does the Box take injuries into account?

(8) BUF vs NE (+17): Do you really think the bills get within 2 touchdowns? I see what you are saying about betting against the big spreads, but i can see this one being 30-6. I guess that means I'll stay away.

-TMC-

Week 3 - Box's First Impressions - Why the Mad Capper is Wrong

i'm using spreads from a few days ago, but you'll get the gist. and the winners are:

hou +6 v indy
general rule #1 of the system (or what it seems to prefer) - always take the home dog.

gb +4.5 v sd
see general rule #1. i agree with you, i think gb can put up some pts in this game. the wild card will be the D - can they contain LT, or more importantly, gates.

min +2.5 v kc
i agree with you here, too, and so does the system. it's also an exception to rule #1, but kc is just that bad. also, the system adjusts for afc's clear advantage over nfc teams in the last 5 years, and STILL kc can't make the cut.

det +6.5 v phi
another agreement, taking the heavy dog here. usually spreads this big, a good bet to take the dog, but with philly's performance, this should be a 4 or 5 spread, not 6+. they have no wrs!

buf +14.5 v ne
yes, you HAVE to pick against it. 15+ point spreads??? ri-cock-ulous. and buf is the WORST of the teams they faced. but if the system says it, i do it.

stl +3.5 v tb
the system agrees - st louis always loses to sf (or plays close), and tb is more a fluke it would seem. but it's still early, this could prove to be a bad pick.

mia +3 v nyj
this is when the system and i have problems. i'm giving up a win here, but i have to go with the system. maybe... ted ginn... will have 3 returns for tds? maybe?

pit -8.5 v sf
the system LOVES pit. the top three teams according to it are NE, PIT, and DAL (suprisingly). this is the second week in a row it said to take pit giving big points. it didn't let me down last week, i'll go with it.

ari +8 v bal
arizona is a better team than they play, and the system seems to realize that. and bal isn't as good as they seem, especially with boller in there. he did look good, but don't be fooled - he's balls.

sea -3.5 v cin
full agreement. i think i just saw neen score a touchdown against the bengals...

cle +3 v oak
here's another "early season victim" i think. the stats favor cleveland slightly, mostly due to last week's throttling against a previously well ranked team. the odds suggest on a neutral field, it'd be a virtual pick 'em. the system pick cle.

atl +4 v car
i think car will win, but i like the home dog again. again, could be an early season disaster, but we shall see.

dal +3 v chi
chicago is not that good. dallas is good. dal should win this game.

ten +4.5 no
i think (and the system thinks) no is not that good. tn has a great defense this year, and they seem to be clicking - they really should have won last week. this will be close either way, i'm guessing a 3 point game. the system is guessing ten should be favored by 6. the system is silly.

so far, my top 3 picks every week are winning almost 70%. booyah.

-MTB-

Week 3 - Capper's First Impressions - IND Romps, CHI Flops

OK, i used ****'s lines... I'm gonna check www.****.com to see if they are any different but based on **** (home team in CAPS)...

ind over HOU (-6.5)
-Houston had a win over shitty KC and a surprise win over CAR, mostly because A. Johnson is nearly unstoppable. He's hurt this week, Indy is gonna romp.

GB over sd (+5.5)
-I think this is a great underdog bet, since GB is better than common wisdom and SD is worse than most think. I think this will be a close game, so I'll take the points.

min over KC (+3)
-Honestly, KC is the worst team in the league to me. I just think they plain suck. The Vikes have a good D, good running, and after last week's 4 INT game, I think they will take less chances with Tavaris and win in a ball control offense. Plus I get 3 points.

det over PHI (+7)
-PHI seems to be in trouble, but I would have picked them if the spread was closer. With Kitna throwing over 70% in Marz's offense, PHI unable to stop the redskins, and McNabb not healthy, I'll take the 7 points.

NE over buf (-17)
-Most rediculous spread...ever. But can you really pick against it?

NYJ over mia (-3)
-Jets have lost to NE and BAL. Two top teams in the NFL so I'm not faulting them. MIA blows, and they're away.

sf over PIT (+9)
-What's with the huge spreads? PIT beat crappy CLE and BUF. They are not 9 points better than SF, who are 2-0 after two division games.

BAL over ari (-8)
-i'm not betting this game because of the large spread, but forced to pick I'll take Baltimore's D getting pressure to Leinart before he can throw to his badass WRs. Boller actually looked good last week, did anyone notice?

stl over TB (+4)
-This one's a toughy. I have picked STL two weeks in a row and gotten screwed. It felt so nice, i'm going back for thirds! I'll take the 4 points because I think Vegas is over-impressed with TB's win over NO. NO has played terribly, so I'm not convinced TB is any good.

DEN over jax (-3.5)
-tough call, since DEN has squeaked by a couple of questionable teams (OAK and BUF), and jax has underperformed against TEN and ATL. Denver's home, though.. Shit I just changed my mind. This game comes down to a last second field goal, which means i need to take the 'dog. REVISED: jax over DEN (+3.5)

SEA over cin (-3.5)
-I'm pretty sure that the ten of us with my little sister at nose tackle could play better defense than CIN.

OAK over cle (-3)
-What? I picked the raiders? yeah, they're playing the browns.
If you think CLE scores 50 points again this week, I want some of what you're having.

car over ATL (-4)
-Atlanta is in trouble. Harrington isn't helping and the spread is only 4 points. I'm betting this one for sure.

WAS over nyg (-4)
-WAS beat PHI, PHI is better than NYG, therefore the transitive property tells me WAS will beat NYG. I new geometry proofs would come in handy some day.

dal over CHI (+3)
-good frickin game. I think Rex throws a couple picks, and since Benson sucks Dallas wins by default. Plus it's an underdog kind of week.

NO over tn (-4.5)
-I know i said NO isn't impressive, but they're home, Deuce is averaging 5 yards a carry, and everyone is saying the same thing - give him the damn ball. I think they do. The passing game opens up, and TNs offense isn't good enough to keep pace, even though I hear my sister is playing nose tackle for the Saints, too.


-TMC-

Week 2 - I'm In

i'm in. i've got the black box running, i went 5-0 week 1, and 3-1 (waiting for tonight) this week. i'm making money, baby.


-MTB-

Week 2 - Time To Bet

So I decided that since I am such a football genius, I should start making some extra money betting on the NFL.....

or not.

Apparently...

- CLE can outgun CIN,
- NO can't score against TB,
- SEA makes the bonehead turnover instead of ARI,
- STL can't keep up with SF,
- HOU has an offensive line good enough to hold off CAR.

Week 2 - Box's Bets

*backdated, box rankings based on 11/12/07 models.

The Rankings - Spread
THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. NYJ +10 v. BAL Away - Bet Soon	35.0
2. GB +1 v. NYG Away	36.5
3. WAS +7 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon	41.5
4. OAK +10 v. DEN Away - Bet Soon	40.0
5. NO -4 v. TB @Home	33.5
6. ATL +10.5 v. JAC @Home	37.5
7. CLE +7 v. CIN @Home - Bet Soon	37.0
8. MIA +4 v. DAL @Home	45.0
9. HOU +7 v. CAR Away - Bet Soon	45.5
10. TEN +7.5 v. IND @Home	46.0
11. BUF +10 v. PIT Away - Bet Soon	43.5
12. MIN +3.5 v. DET Away	46.5
13. NE -4 v. SD @Home	49.0
14. KC +13 v. CHI Away - Bet Soon	35.5
15. SEA -3 v. ARI @Home - Bet Soon	44.0
16. SF +3 v. STL @Home - Bet Soon	38.5

Week 1 - Box's Bets

*backdated, box rankings based on 11/12/07 models.

The Rankings - Spread
THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. BUF +3 v. DEN @Home - Bet Soon	40.5
2. CAR +1.5 v. STL Away	40.0
3. CHI +6.5 v. SD Away	42.5
4. PIT -5.5 v. CLE Away	41.0
5. NE -6.5 v. NYJ Away	44.0
6. NO +6.5 v. IND Away	42.0
7. MIA +3 v. WAS Away - Bet Soon	41.5
8. SEA -6 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
9. ARI +3 v. SF @Home - Bet Soon	39.5
10. ATL +3 v. MIN Away - Bet Soon	40.5
11. NYG +6 v. DAL Away - Bet Soon	40.0
12. GB +3 v. PHI @Home - Bet Soon	44.0
13. BAL +3 v. CIN Away - Bet Soon	42.0
14. TEN +6.5 v. JAC Away	42.5
15. OAK -1.5 v. DET @Home	40.0
16. KC +3 v. HOU Away - Bet Soon	38.0

MEET THE BOX

So as a reader of this ongoing conversation, you may need some background on the analysis. Here is a taste.

In 2005, I started developing a simple system to track my office pool bets in a less "manual" way. Over the course of the year, I started adding tidbits and statistics to help me improve my picks. It was pretty straightforward picks against the spread (ATS), and I was using the statistics at FootballOutsiders.com, the MASTERS of football statistics, as my base.

After I while, I decided to stop wading and take the plunge. Using a combination of analysis from Football Outsiders, historical NFL statistics, and historical spread information, I started the overall analysis. The basic premise is very easy: measure teams against a moving average (week to week, the "average" team changes), find the average score for any given team on any given Sunday, combine the two to determine a spread. That was the starting premise - since then, I've realized the real art is in measuring HOW to bet ATS, not WHO to bet ATS. The "Who", over the long run, ends up being more or less a coin flip. Understanding the How and When is where the money is.

This gets us to the type of bets, how to pick the right bets, and developing a system of "Conviction". The system now ranks in the following ways:

ATS
Spread Conviction
Win Percentage (as in, which number ranked picks win the most)
Low Risk Conviction
Conviction and Win Percentage Averager
"The Juicer" (takes into account the lay and whether a bet is worth the money)

MONEYLINE
Moneyline Conviction
Win Percentage
"The Juicer"

... and then I have subroutines that aggregate the results and average out the ranks.

More to come at a later date, but that's a start.

Introductory Post

Welcome to the football ramblings of two childhood friends: the charismatic LA gambler, and the hermit-like statistics lover. We're not even sure how they're friends, but they sure did love playing Tecmo Bowl. Yeah NES!

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