Week 17 - The Gambling Power Rankings

These rankings match a team's performance to their statistically expected performance. They weight Sharpe and Alpha to come up with these power rankings:

The Gamblers'
Power Rankings
1	NE
2	IND
3	DAL
4	SD
5	PIT
6	NO	▲1
7	SEA	▲1
8	CHI	▼2
9	JAC
10	NYG
11	GB	▲2
12	PHI
13	CIN	▼2
14	DEN
15	TEN
16	ARI	▲3
17	MIN
18	DET	▲2
19	WAS	▼3
20	TB	▲4
21	HOU	▲2
22	CAR	▼4
23	STL	▼1
24	BAL	▼3
25	CLE
26	SF
27	BUF	▲1
28	OAK	▼1
29	NYJ
30	KC
31	ATL
32	MIA

Here is the financial breakdown:

	Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Team	Rank	Rank	Rank
ARI	16	14	9
ATL	31	27	20
BAL	24	21	7
BUF	28	25	32
CAR	18	30	12
CHI	8	7	1
CIN	14	9	11
CLE	26	15	24
DAL	3	3	6
DEN	13	23	29
DET	19	19	27
GB	11	10	17
HOU	22	18	22
IND	2	4	14
JAC	9	6	31
KC	30	28	4
MIA	32	29	2
MIN	20	16	19
NE	1	1	3
NO	7	5	15
NYG	10	11	18
NYJ	29	24	10
OAK	27	32	26
PHI	12	12	8
PIT	4	8	21
SD	5	2	16
SEA	6	13	30
SF	25	31	13
STL	23	22	25
TB	17	26	28
TEN	15	17	5
WAS	21	20	23

If you want to know how a specific game breaks down, email me at matt dot moscardi at gmail dot com. Here's a sample of this week's marquee games, the Giants/NE and Dallas/Was (the favorite is the bottom team):

Sharpe + Alpha		Financial Pick
NYG	7.34%	Diff:	7.89%
NE	15.22%	Adv:	NE

Sharpe + Alpha		Financial Pick
DAL	12.04%	Diff:	-6.83%
WAS	5.20%	Adv:	DAL

Now, I take issue with my own power rankings. There is no way San Diego is a better or more consistent team than Jacksonville this year, in my opinion. Nor do I agree that a scrappy Buffalo team and a good-but-not-great Cleveland team are 27th and 25th respectively. But if I go over the numbers, it would make sense based on the way I've figured these statistics.

They way they calculate now, it's showing the ranking as teams that consistently crush the spread down to teams that consistently get crushed. Despite Buffalo being 9-6 ATS this year, when they lose, they lose big. Take the 56-10 drubbing they took against New England earlier this year. Combine that with a few more big losses to the Steelers, NE earlier in the season, and Jacksonville, and no matter how much they eek by the rest of the season, their consistency is pure shite.

Cleveland, on the other hand, is a bit of an odd duck. They are helped by Alpha, ranking in the top half of the league, but it's still not enough to prop them up in terms of Sharpe. My problem is I can't quite explain why yet. They had a fairly bumpy start with that ridiculous loss to Pittsburgh in week 1, and a helluva win in week 4 against the Ravens, but other than those two blips, they have been a middling team in terms of spread performances. They win more than they lose, but they never win big. So why the crummy Sharpe?

Well, my only explanation is in how they perform against how the are supposed to perform as predicted by the statistics at Football Outsiders and the Box. Cleveland has both fallen short of expectations and outplayed themselves. To the point where the Box basically says, "screw you guys" and throws them deep into the "middle basement" reserved for only the most schizophrenic of teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Washington, Houston, Denver, Tennessee... who are you guys really?

I don't know and I don't care, as long as I make the big bucks. Check back again tomorrow, because the best bets are in, and this week I got ridiculous and had fun. Why not? It's the last week of the season!!

Week 17 - Moneyline Seems to Be Money

I bet some uncharacteristic moneyline bets last week - only teams that paid out positive dollars. Did it work? Well, my $5 bet on Chicago to upset Green Bay paid me a solid $15 or so, negating any other moneyline losses I took. Worth it?

I'm not sure.

This week, the picks are in, and I may do some of the same maneuvering:

THE PICKS

* considers lay in pick order

1. CHI +130 v. NO @Home

2. TB +145 v. CAR @Home

3. SEA +145 v. ATL Away

4. CIN -145 v. MIA @Home

5. IND +280 v. TEN @Home

6. DEN +190 v. MIN @Home

7. PIT -200 v. BAL @Home

8. GB -210 v. DET Away

9. JAC +280 v. HOU Away

10. NYJ -270 v. KC Away

11. SD -370 v. OAK @Home

12. PHI -340 v. BUF Away

13. DAL +430 v. WAS Away

14. ARI -260 v. STL Away

My top 3 picks are all in the money picks. I like betting the upset, but this week is pretty unpredictable. I'm not sure what I'm doing yet, but I do know I'm not risking big dollars in the last week - I'll try to keep it a respectable showing and not lose big on a choppy week 17.

Week 17 - Wacky Week 17 Best Bets

Vegas has gone nuts. Abso-frikkin-nuts. Indy +6.5 at home against Tennessee? Just because the Titans need the win? Really? I think Tom Moore could suit up and receive passes from Sorgi and they could STILL beat the Titans this week. Don't forget, while the marquee players only play for a quarter or two, the real money players on the front lines almost never sit. That means even when they run with Kenton Keith, Indy will be running behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, no matter what Albert Haynesworth is doing.

Jacksonville +6? Seattle +2.5? And, on the flip side, Cleveland -9???? Giving nine points? Since Week 8, all but one of their games have been settled by less than 9. The one "blowout" win? They beat Houston by 10 in week 12. How likely is it that they win by 9 at this point? I would say pretty freaking unlikely. And so would the box.

Here are the early picks:

THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. TB +2.5 v. CAR @Home	40.5
2. SEA +2.5 v. ATL Away	40.5
3. CIN -2.5 v. MIA Away	38.5
4. GB -3.5 v. DET @Home	40.5
5. OAK +8 v. SD @Home	41.5
6. PIT +3.5 v. BAL Away	40.0
7. JAC +6 v. HOU Away - Bet Soon	42.5
8. SF +9 v. CLE Away - Bet Soon	40.5
9. NO -2 v. CHI Away	43.0
10. IND +6.5 v. TEN @Home	43.5
11. DEN +3 v. MIN @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
12. NYG +14 v. NE @Home - Bet Soon	45.0
13. BUF +7.5 v. PHI Away	43.5
14. DAL +9 v. WAS Away - Bet Soon	43.0
15. STL +6 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon	37.5
16. KC +6 v. NYJ Away - Bet Soon	39.0

I like that one-two punch in Seattle and TB - TB coming off an embarrassing loss (that won me some $s last week) and Seattle coming off an even more embarrassing loss, despite not needing the W at all.

I know the Colts and Cowboys are lower conviction picks, but I can't help be drawn to those games that clearly feel like they were handicapped to reflect public sentiment more than team performance. Week 17 is an excellent week for arbitrage I think, as the "who will play" frenzy that factors into the spreads is often overwrought. In fact, if the Box were Vegas and ignored the statistics, here's how it would have handicapped this week:

	Vegas	Vegas
Fav	Guess	Actual	Dog
NE	-14	-14	NYG
PHI	-3.5	-7.5	BUF
GB	-5	-3.5	DET
NO	-4	-2	CHI
HOU	3	-6	JAC
CAR	4	-2.5	TB
CLE	-13	-9	SF
CIN	-6.5	-2.5	MIA
ATL	9.5	-2.5	SEA
WAS	9.5	-9	DAL
PIT	-8	3.5	BAL
ARI	-7	-6	STL
SD	-7	-8	OAK
MIN	-4	-3	DEN
NYJ	-3	-6	KC
TEN	10	-6.5	IND

There are some giant shifts there - owing entirely to public sentiment. If the spread was like the stock market, this is a nice bear market chance to make some money on quality teams that are undervalued because of mob mentality.

Week 16 - Box's Results

Here are the results for Week 16. I'm rushing through the week to get on to this week which appears to be a crazy week to me.

Results for Week 16

Moneyline: BUF (120) v. NYG - $5.00 wins $0.00

Moneyline: KC (180) v. DET - $5.00 wins $0.00

Moneyline: CHI (310) v. GB - $5.00 wins $20.50

Spread: SF +6 (-115) v. TB - $20.00 wins $37.39

Parlay: STL +13.5 (-110) v. PIT, SF +12 (-115) v. TB, CIN +9 (-125) v. CLE, DEN +14.5 (-110) v. SD - $5.00 wins $0.00

Results for Week 16
Bet Totals:	$40.00
Potential Winnings:	$62.89
Payouts:	$57.89
Actual Profit:	$17.89
%s: Week 16	44.73%

I would say, all in all, I can't complain with my results. It was an odd betting week, but I still did pretty well. Had I stuck to my odds method, I would have been closer to a 62.79% win week (Box suggested I double the SF bet, and place some different parlays) winning $154.58 on bets of $94.96. I'll give up the 20% to have a little fun with the bets this late in the game. My goal is a breakeven year, which as a dog picker, would be a massive undertaking. My win percentages after Week 16 improved a bit, too, as I went 9-7 overall with my picks:

	Parlay	Tease	Ind
1 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	61.76%
2 Team Bet	41.18%	70.59%	61.03%
3 Team Bet	17.65%	47.06%	53.92%
4 Team Bet	8.82%	38.24%	50.37%
5 Team Bet	2.94%	26.47%	50.29%
6 Team Bet	0.00%	17.65%	50.49%
7 Team Bet	0.00%	14.71%	51.68%
8 Team Bet	0.00%	14.71%	51.84%
9 Team Bet	0.00%	14.71%	51.31%
10 Team Bet	0.00%	5.88%	51.62%
11 Team Bet	0.00%	2.94%	52.54%
12 Team Bet	0.00%	2.94%	52.70%
13 Team Bet	0.00%	2.94%	52.83%
14 Team Bet	0.00%	3.33%	52.62%
15 Team Bet	0.00%	5.00%	52.33%

Honestly, if I can bet like this going forward, I could have an unstoppable machine. A MACHINE I tell you!

Week 16 - Box's Final Bets

I have a LOT of catching up to do. The holidays are pure craziness, so bear with me, some of these posts are coming very late. Here are the final bets I placed for Week 16 - it could have been a better week had I bet my one-two as the box suggested, but as it's late in the season, I'm happy just to get by at this point. Here are the bets:

Bets for Week 16

Moneyline: BUF (120) v. NYG - $5.00 to win $6.00

Moneyline: KC (180) v. DET - $5.00 to win $9.00

Moneyline: CHI (310) v. GB - $5.00 to win $15.50

Spread: SF +6 (-115) v. TB - $20.00 to win $17.39

Parlay: STL +13.5 (-110) v. PIT, SF +12 (-115) v. TB, CIN +9 (-125) v. CLE, DEN +14.5 (-110) v. SD - $5.00 to win $15.00

I love playing these positive moneylines on what clearly look like mismatches. Buffalo is the superior team (though, sadly, it doesn't pay out), and KC and Chicago are nice longshot bets. The single spread bet felt like a longshot to me, but the Box says and I do. The Parlay is purely for ego's sake.

Week 16 - Basket of Eggs - Capper's Final Picks

I am leaning heavily on TB and MIN this week. In fact, I doubled my wager amount this week 2, so basically if they go down, my season is over. Only one week left, though, so might as well, right?

3-team Parlay:

1. [CLE -3 v CIN -- TB -6 v SF -- BUF +3 v NYG]

4-team Teaser:
2. [TB 0 v SF -- TN -2.5 v NYJ -- GB -2.5 v CHI -- MIN -0.5 v WAS]
3. [TB 0 v SF -- CLE +3 v CIN -- SD -2.5 vs DEN -- MIN -0.5 v WAS]

Single-Game:
4. TB -6 v SF
5. MIN -6.5 v WAS

So there you have it.... TB x 4 bets and MIN x 3 bets. Both against the box. I hope this is one of my weeks.

TMC

Week 16 - True Win Percentages, Sighs Abound

So as I mentioned in my last post, I found a major flaw in my programming. A major flaw. What was it you ask? Let me tell you and rant about my moron-acy.

On a weekly basis, I enter the scores into the Box to update my performance. I went to enter the scores from Week 15 and update my performance when I noticed something odd happened -- my picks changed. Magic? I think not. So I deleted the scores and checked my picks, and they were back to the picks I posted here. "Hmmm..." I thought. That's odd. So I went back through my math, picking around, thinking maybe I just entered something wrong. Lo and behold, my stupidocity went far beyond a wrong entry.

Part of my pick algorithm figures in historical pick win percentages. For instance, if my number 6 pick historically is winning 60% and my number 5 pick is winning 50%, the Box is trained to say, "that's weird, we should switch them". As more data comes in, the Box should get more accurate as the best picks float to the top. It's a simple way to train the box using wins and losses, but it's been working effectively. This week, I noticed that the Box is not using historical win percentages (as in, based on overall win percentages on Week 14, the Box is trained for Week 15), it was using live win percentages (as in, as scores come in, the Box changes current picks to look like it wins more). That explains my win percentage of a ridiculously astounding 87% for my number one pick - the Box keeps CHANGING the number one picks going backwards to make them look like winners.

Oops.

So, I have fixed the error. And I have cried and lied in the fetal position. I need a binky. Is all lost? Not even close.

Here are my true win percentages (note: these are before modification using the financials - actual win percentage should be slightly higher), and they are far more realistic:

	Parlay	Tease	Ind
1 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	60.61%
2 Team Bet	39.39%	69.70%	59.85%
3 Team Bet	18.18%	48.48%	53.54%
4 Team Bet	9.09%	39.39%	50.38%
5 Team Bet	3.03%	27.27%	50.61%
6 Team Bet	0.00%	18.18%	50.76%
7 Team Bet	0.00%	15.15%	52.16%
8 Team Bet	0.00%	15.15%	52.08%
9 Team Bet	0.00%	15.15%	51.35%
10 Team Bet	0.00%	6.06%	51.82%
11 Team Bet	0.00%	3.03%	52.89%
12 Team Bet	0.00%	3.03%	52.90%
13 Team Bet	0.00%	3.03%	52.91%
14 Team Bet	0.00%	3.45%	52.59%
15 Team Bet	0.00%	5.26%	52.11%

If the glass was half empty, I just lost 27% of my number one pick win rate. If the glass is half full, 60% is INCREDIBLY PROFITABLE if you bet real money. So it's really bitter sweet. The teaser bets are a little misleading - I hit a 15 team teaser once last season, and it's skewed the results slightly. If you remove my 2006 numbers, my numbers get much uglier for 2007:

	Parlay	Tease	Ind
1 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	50.00%
2 Team Bet	31.25%	62.50%	51.56%
3 Team Bet	12.50%	31.25%	45.83%
4 Team Bet	6.25%	31.25%	46.09%
5 Team Bet	6.25%	12.50%	46.88%
6 Team Bet	0.00%	6.25%	47.40%
7 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	47.77%
8 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	48.05%
9 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	46.18%
10 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	45.94%
11 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	45.74%
12 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	45.31%
13 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	45.91%
14 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	47.19%
15 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	44.81%

The favorite trend is killing the Box (and Vegas, for that matter - I read that handicappers can't figure out how high to set spreads, since this year the faves are just killing everything). But despite losing, the teasers win. And win with a buffer underneath them. Which tells me that the Box is roughly 6 points away from a killer win percentage this year. Sigh.

The real underlying issue now is confidence. My self confidence is mildly shattered. Well, that's a lie. I'm a cocky bastard. It might be sprained a bit, but nothing some HGH can't fix.

So the question now is, what to bet? Based on these win percentages, this is what I should do:

1.) 2 Individual Spread bets
2.) 2 Team Parlay (cheap if I can get it)
3.) 4 Team Teaser

That's right, the teaser. The teaser I so ardently mocked turns out to be my most profitable bet. Expect to see it this week in my bets, as I swallow my pride and go for the bucks.

Stay tuned for later today, and don't forget if the Steelers/Rams are in your line up, BET TODAY, it's crappy football Thursday on NFL Network!

Week 16 - DELTA FORCE 2007 - Vegas vs. the Capper

Brutal Week 15, reminds me of week 5. Maybe I avoid weeks ending in 5 next season? Anyway, here's the breakdown for Week 16:

VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER............... DIFF.
PIT (-7.5) at STL.....PIT(-7) ..................... 0.5
DAL (-11)at CAR...... DAL(-14) .................... 3.0
CLE(-3.0) at CIN..... CLE (-6) .................... 3.0
GB(-9.0) at CHI...... GB(-14) ..................... 5.0
HOU (+7.0) at IND.... HOU (+6)..................... 1.0
KC (+5.0) at DET..... KC (+6)...................... 1.0
NYG(-3) at BUF....... NYG (+2)..................... 5.0
OAK (+13) at JAX..... JAX (-9)..................... 4.0
PHI (+3) at NO....... PHI (+3)..................... 0.0
ATL (-10) at ARI..... ATL (+9)..................... 1.0
TB (-7) at SF........ TB(-11)...................... 4.0
MIA (+22) at NE...... MIA (+12).................... 10.0
BAL (+8) at SEA...... BAL (+6)..................... 2.0
NYJ (+8.5) at TEN.... NYJ (+7)..................... 1.5
WAS (+6.5) at MIN.... WAS(+5)...................... 1.5
DEN (+8) at SD ...... DEN (+11).................... 3.0

Not as much red as I've had in the past, but still plenty to talk about. As usual, I love the favorites, while The Box loves the underdogs. Vegas is hitting just shy of 50% on the year, so it really doesn't matter which way you play, as long as you know which games to play. Here are my favorites:

1. CLE -3 vs. CIN: CLE has been a stalwart this year. They are consistently underrated, and this week continues the trend. CIN has shown zero this year, and they are out of the playoff picture. CLE is racing to hold onto the #6 seed, plus they can catch PIT should they falter down the stretch. Talent + motivation = CLE wins. So the only question is what is the spread? It's only a field goal, baby. Bet it straight up, in parlays and in teasers.

2. TB -7 vs SF: SF beat CIN last week. whoopty doo. TB, like cleveland has been a mad capper darling this year, and I don't see any reason SF keeps up. Garcia is back healthy, the running game stays strong, and SF's debut of Shaun something or other last week don't mean squat here. Like it. Love it.

3. MIN -6.5 vs WAS: WAS upset the Giants last week. But MIN is a bad matchup for them. Todd Collins had a brilliant 1st game stepping into the lineup, but he was TERRIBLE last week, which is more in line with what is expected from a 35 yr old backup. WAS won't be able to run against MIN's #1 run defense, and Collins isn't gonna win the game for them. SO! how much will MIN win by? Spread is less than a TD, so I love it.

4. BUF +3 vs NYG: We all see the Giants free-falling. Can they salvage the season by winning this game? Maybe. BUF just got knocked out of the playoffs, so their will may be lowered... But if you look at the season, BUF doesn't lose games by much, plus they are the hotter team right now. Plus they are at home. Plus they have a bunch of young players trying to prove they should start next season. Did I mention Shockey is out for the year, Burres can barely walk and Eli doesn't have anyone else to throw to? I'm taking the dog, here. Byf +9 in a teaser looks like a winner, too.

5. GB -9 vs CHI: You know I love GB, the only question is how close can CHI get? I think we all saw why Kyle Orton is the 3rd stringer last week, and GB has done well covering large spreads this year. The talent and emotion both side with GB, so I'm trusting them to win this game by two scores. GB -3 in a teaser is awesome, also, no way the win this game by less than a field goal.

6. SD -8 vs DEN: Sort of a last minute insert, here, but SD is rolling, Tomlinson is kicking arse and DEN is falling rapidly. Game is in SD and I don't see DEN stopping SD's running game and play-action. SD -2 in a teaser is also a sweet deal, bypassing the critical 7, 4 and 3 point critical points (most likely point differentials).

7. HOU +7 vs IND: I'm so-so on this one, but IND hasn't been blowing out teams, and HOU remains another favorite of mine. I am bothered by IND being at home, so I may drop this pick. The Box likes it, though, so I may have to stick it out. The teaser doesn't give me any more comfort, so I would stay away unless you love IND -1 to win it.

8. TN -2.5 vs NYJ: This is the teaser-spread. The Titans won't get upset, they need this game too badly and young actually looks good. Teasing the spread to under a field goal is huge, here.

9. PIT -1.5 vs STL: Another teaser-only bet. PIT needs this game to stay ahead of CLE, and STL just hasn't played this year. Their run defense is terrible, so Willie Parker should have a field day. Not to mention PIT has lost two in a row, so I fully expect them to come up with vengeance.

Final picks coming up tomorrow...

Week 16 - The Rankings - Big Jumps, Small Brains

So the rankings are in for Week 16 (overall, beta, alpha, Sharpe). The story? Small minds are making big jumps. Here are the overall rankings:

The Gamblers'
Power Rankings
1	NE
2	IND
3	DAL
4	GB
5	PIT
6	SD	▲4
7	SEA	▼1
8	JAC	▲1
9	MIN	▼2
10	CLE	▲1
11	TB	▲4
12	HOU	▲2
13	NYG	▼5
14	PHI	▲2
15	NO	▲2
16	CIN	▼3
17	DET	▼5
18	WAS	▲2
19	ARI	▼1
20	OAK	▼1
21	TEN	▲2
22	CAR	▼1
23	DEN	▼1
24	NYJ
25	BUF	▲1
26	CHI	▼1
27	STL
28	SF	▲2
29	BAL	▼1
30	KC	▼1
31	MIA	▲1
32	ATL	▼1

The movement outside of the top 5 is ridiculous. The San Diego Chargers have finally made a leap up the ranks, since they've started playing some consistent ball over the last few weeks. Has Norv "What's a Football?" Turner finally figured out how to win?

Hardly.

The Chargers have a 4 game win streak going against some of the toughest competition in the NFL: Baltimore, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Detroit. Powerhouses all. Detroit, the highest ranking of those 4, ranks in the bottom half of the league this week. Tennessee, who early in the season was a nice spreadbuster, seems to have lost steam as teams figure out how to fool Vince Young and Albert Haynesworth was on and off with injuries. KC and Baltimore? Herm Edwards and Brian Billick. 'Nuff said.

The other biggest jumpers were losers: the aforementioned Detroit team, let by a schizophrenic ego maniacal Mike Martz on offense, and a truly terrible New York Giants. Tom Coughlin is just terrible. Last week against Washington, Coughlin's coaching staff called 28 runs and 53 PASSES. 53 PASSES!!! What, are you nuts? Granted, playing from behind often means you are forced to pass more than usual. But the Giants were getting 5.0 ypp on the ground, and 3.1 ypp through the air. Do the math, Tom. I hope the Giants don't make the playoffs, they will be easy pickings for whoever they would face first.

Here are this week's performance rankings:

	Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Team	Rank	Rank	Rank
ARI	17	13	6
ATL	31	32	27
BAL	30	18	10
BUF	22	30	16
CAR	25	12	21
CHI	23	28	30
CIN	19	4	18
CLE	14	7	25
DAL	4	1	32
DEN	24	25	12
DET	20	5	24
GB	3	11	13
HOU	12	10	2
IND	2	3	23
JAC	5	27	29
KC	29	31	26
MIA	32	16	9
MIN	9	14	3
NE	1	2	1
NO	13	23	31
NYG	15	6	20
NYJ	26	17	15
OAK	21	9	5
PHI	11	22	19
PIT	6	8	22
SD	7	19	28
SEA	8	15	4
SF	28	24	14
STL	27	29	8
TB	10	26	17
TEN	18	21	11
WAS	16	20	7

There have been some major adjustments in the Box this week. In large part because of a massive flaw in one of the major programming aspects. Needless to say, I have been deeply ensconced in the fixing of the issue, hence the slowdown in posts. I will be posting an updated Win % of the Box's Pure Picks, picks that based solely on the base statistics, before any financial mods. Look for it in a few, along with an updated this week's best bets after the early line moves.

Week 16 - Box's Broken But Still Beautiful

Here are this week's picks, I'll have commentary in the next day or so:

THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. SF +7 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon	40.0
2. CIN +3 v. CLE @Home - Bet Soon	42.5
3. BAL +8 v. SEA Away	41.5
4. HOU +7 v. IND Away x2! - Bet Soon	42.5
5. CAR +11 v. DAL @Home	40.0
6. DEN +8 v. SD Away	43.5
7. STL +7.5 v. PIT @Home	40.0
8. BUF +3 v. NYG @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
9. OAK +13 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon	42.0
10. MIA +22 v. NE Away - Bet Soon	41.0
11. CHI +9 v. GB @Home - Bet Soon	43.5
12. WAS +6.5 v. MIN Away	42.0
13. KC +5 v. DET Away	38.5
14. ATL +10 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon	37.5
15. PHI +3 v. NO Away - Bet Soon	43.0
16. NYJ +8.5 v. TEN Away	40.5

It's an ALL DOG week, which could easily blow up in my face. Last week I went 10-6 overall, so I'm hoping for another solid outing. That said, Baltimore v Seattle? SF v. TB? Denver v. SD at San Diego? Terrible.

Week 15 - Box's Results

I am WAY behind on my posts this week. In part because of travel. But more importantly, I discovered what could amount to a major glitch in the Box's programming. Suffice to say, I have been running ragged looking for a way to fix it. My confidence is fairly low right now, but the picks still haven't let me down, so something is going right. Just not as right as I hoped.

Here are the results from last week:

Results for Week 15

Spread: HOU +1 (-110) v. DEN - $20.19 wins $38.54

Spread: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB - $23.42 wins $0.00

Spread: JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT - $16.75 wins $31.98

Spread: OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND - $17.14 wins $32.72

Parlay: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN - $20.00 wins $0.00

Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $7.50 wins $0.00

Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, NO -3.5 (-110) v. ARI, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, BUF +5.5 (-110) v. CLE, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $5.00 wins $0.00

Results for Week 15
Bet Totals:	$110.00
Potential Winnings:	$2,438.17
Payouts:	$103.24
Actual Profit:	-$6.76
%s: Week 15	-6.15%

Overall, I'm still only moderately down, and the primary reason for it is an overzealous betting style and inconsistency. I've tried teasers, parlays, moneyline, and progressive parlays this year, all without having done the proper math and figuring what I should be doing. Now, I made a module to correct my failures. So we shall see going forward. I will post the Box's picks right after this.

Week 15 - Bad feelings justified - Weekly Roundup

This is one of those weeks I just shouldn't have bet. I had no confidence in my picks going in, and it turns out for good reason. One thing I should know by now, is that parlays are hard to win anyways, let alone when you don't trust the teams you've included.

Note to self: On iffy weeks, stick to single-game bets.

Onto the analysis...

The Good:

1. JAX +3 vs PIT- Well, well. JAX actually went into PIT and won. I had a good feeling about this game initially, but then faltered until I saw the box agreed with me. Glad I stuck with it, unfortuantely they were in parlays with crap. Moving forward I love this team to keep winning. Who's left on their schedule?

2. NO -3.5 vs ARI- This game scared the crap out of me, but NO pulled it out. Seems like they have rediscovered their 2006 form, and should be a good bet the last couple of weeks. ARI continues to disappoint, and should be a good team to bet against the rest of the way.

3. GB - 8.5 vs STL- GB has been such a good bet this year. This game was close for a little while, but STL's true colors showed up and GB pulled away. I like GB to win out and STL to keep losing to good teams.

The Bad:

1. ATL +13.5 vs TB- I got this one wrong big time. Much like the WAS/Sean Taylor emotional fallout, this game could have gone either way. I guessed that ATL would play hard for pride and keep it close, maybe even upset. The Box had it as the #1 pick... and Ka-Put. They got blown out 37-3. Putting this risky game in a teaser and a parlay was poor gambling too. TB is one of my favorite teams to bet with, I shoulda known better.

2. SEA -7 vs CAR- This was the shocker of the week. CAR has been terrible this year, all year. Zero flashes of potential, and down to their 3rd string QB. SEA has been off/on most of the year, but finally seemed to put it together for a nice winning streak. This game killed me as I had SEA in two parlays and a teaser, so 3 out of my 4 bets blew up based on this game. I don't think anyone saw this coming, and it was just one of those games that made for one of these weeks.

3. BAL -3.5 vs MIA- What... is... going on in BAL? I think this is 8 losses in a row, this time to the winless dolphins. Going into this game I did have a feeling this could be MIA's game to win this year, but logically it didn't make sense. See what logic gets you?

4. IND -10 vs OAK- Didn't see this game, but OAK kept it within 7 points. OAK has been pretty terrible this year, and I took a shot that IND would win big. I definitely wasn't going with OAK after last week's failure. I'd pick this way every week. And I'd be broke.

Week 15 - Parlays for All My Men (Final Picks)!

So it's a parlay kind of week. Kudos to Matty for throwing caution to the wind and betting your entire chip stack. Takes some extra large underwear to do that. Also, congrats on being one for one, I saw HOU kicked butt last night.

This week I'm doing 3 parlays and a teaser, none of them big. I have little conviction this week in the picks, so it's not the week for long-shots.

3-team parlay, pays 6 to 1:

1. [SEA -7.5 vs CAR -- NO -4 vs ARI -- IND -10 vs OAK];
   
2. [BAL -3 vs MIA -- ATL -13.5 vs TB -- MIN -10 vs CHI];
3. [JAX +3 vs PIT -- GB -8.5 vs STL -- SEA -7.5 vs CAR];

4-team teaser, pays 3 to 1:

1. [GB -2.5 vs STL -- SEA -4 vs CAR -- MIN -4 vs CHI -- ATL -19.5 vs TB]

I'm putting a lot of faith in my #1 pick, SEA and the Box's #1 pick, ATL.

Week 15 - The "Who Cares" Moneyline Best Bets

Just FYI, here are the top moneyline picks this week. Not that I'll bet them, but here they are:

THE PICKS

* considers lay in pick order

1. NO -190 v. ARI Away

2. TEN -200 v. KC @Home

3. JAC +190 v. PIT Away

4. CLE -245 v. BUF Away

5. BAL -180 v. MIA @Home

6. NYG -210 v. WAS Away

7. MIN -550 v. CHI Away

8. GB -460 v. STL @Home

9. SEA -330 v. CAR @Home

10. SD -460 v. DET Away

11. CIN -400 v. SF @Home

12. DAL -500 v. PHI Away

13. IND -600 v. OAK @Home

Great chance to make some bucks on the Jacksonville game - the Box predicts the rare underdog win. Almost double your money!

Week 15 - Box's Final Bets - Bet Your House

So this week, I'm taking some risks. Some big risks. Calculated, but big. I'm betting almost 100% of my bankroll. My bets total $110 of my $136 bankroll.

My reasoning is based on the following statistics: cost per bet (which I fixed), and win percentage. While these are inexorably linked mathematically, I'm risk averse, so I don't quite trust my own winnings. I wanted to give myself a weekly shot at the big ticket win without risking much percentage-wise.

My theoretically best bet combination, which I'm sure will change as I get more data points, looks like this (with "asset allocations"):
1.) 4 Individual Spread Bets - 70.5%
2.) "Top 2" Team Parlay (with "Wacky Friday" vig if I can get it) - 18%
3.) "Top 7" Team Parlay - 7%
4.) "Top 9" Team Parlay - 4.5%

I'm well diversified, though there is a lot of duplication in the parlays. I've given some serious thought to switching out the 7 team parlay with a 7 team 6 point teaser (you'll see why in the win percentages below), but the payouts are just not compelling. I may change my tune in a big down week, but for now, I should stick to my guns. Here are the Box's win percentages since Week 1 of 2006 ("Tease" is 6 point teasers):

	Parlay	Tease	Ind
1 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	87.10%
2 Team Bet	67.74%	83.87%	81.45%
3 Team Bet	45.16%	67.74%	75.81%
4 Team Bet	35.48%	51.61%	76.21%
5 Team Bet	25.81%	41.94%	70.65%
6 Team Bet	22.58%	32.26%	70.43%
7 Team Bet	19.35%	22.58%	71.43%
8 Team Bet	9.68%	12.90%	69.76%
9 Team Bet	6.45%	12.90%	66.31%
10 Team Bet	3.23%	9.68%	64.52%
11 Team Bet	0.00%	6.45%	62.61%
12 Team Bet	0.00%	6.45%	60.88%
13 Team Bet	0.00%	6.45%	59.77%
14 Team Bet	0.00%	3.23%	58.07%
15 Team Bet	0.00%	3.23%	57.65%

Not so bad, I would say. Those results are through Week 14 of 2007. It clearly delineates what you would expect: it's easier to pick single teams (since you're chance of victory is hypothetically 50/50), teasers add a nice edge to straight parlays, and parlays are longshots but high payouts. With this sort of win percentages, the "cost per bet" as outlined previously should have looked like the below chart - I found a few errors in parenthesis and actually I was pointing to the wrong odds in some places:

	Prog	6 Pt Tease	6.5 Pt Tease	7 Pt Tease	Chp Parl	Reg Parl	Ind Bets
1 Team Bet							$0.66
2 Team Bet		$0.60	$0.54	$0.48	$1.57	$1.44	$0.55
3 Team Bet		$0.90	$0.76	$0.63	$2.34	$2.16	$0.45
4 Team Bet	$1.24	$1.06	$0.81	$0.55	$4.15	$2.90	$0.45
5 Team Bet	$2.04	$1.31	$1.10	$0.89	$6.23	$5.71	$0.35
6 Team Bet	$3.41	$1.26	$1.10	$0.94	$11.42	$8.26	$0.34
7 Team Bet	$7.52	$1.48	$1.26	$1.03	$19.90	$13.71	$0.36
8 Team Bet	$5.83	$1.06	$0.68	$0.42	$19.42	$13.61	$0.33
9 Team Bet	$8.21	$1.71	$1.06	$0.68	$25.58	$18.42	$0.27
10 Team Bet	$7.88	$1.52	$1.03	$0.55	$24.97	$21.61	$0.23
11 Team Bet	-$2.04	$1.32	$0.68	$0.35	-$1.00	-$1.00	$0.20
12 Team Bet	-$0.88	$2.29	$1.32	$0.68	-$1.00	-$1.00	$0.16
13 Team Bet		$3.90	$2.29	$1.32			$0.14
14 Team Bet		$2.26	$1.45	$0.65			$0.11
15 Team Bet		$3.87	$2.26	$1.45			$0.10

The light green highlight a.) straight parlays with 20% or better win percentage, b.) teasers with 50% or better win percentages, and c.) individual bets with 75% or better win percentages. That to me was the money spot, where the payouts were high but the risk was low(er). Again, I decided to stay away from teasers, as it's just obvious how much less they payout. With the payouts as they are and the win percentages I have, if I hit a 15 team 6 point teaser, I'd be compensated the same as if I hit a 4 team regular parlay because of the payout structure. So don't fool yourself: you PAY for those points. And you pay big.

Hypothetically, I'd be best off putting big dollars on the number one individual pick and bet like so:

Best Bets
Progressive	9 Team Bet
6 Pt Teaser	13 Team Bet
6.5 Pt Teaser	13 Team Bet
7 Pt Teaser	15 Team Bet
Cheap Parlay	9 Team Bet
Regular Parlay	10 Team Bet
Individual Bets	1 Team Bet

And yes, if I did that, my winnings would be very very nice. But when I lose, not only do I lose - I lose 100% of my bet. It's hard to swallow, despite the winning trend. Maybe when I grow a pair next year, this is exactly how I'll bet. For now, I'm content with a more diversified approach. That said, going into this week, this is how my picks look:

Bets for Week 15

Spread: HOU +1 (-110) v. DEN - $20.19 to win $18.35

Spread: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB - $23.42 to win $21.29

Spread: JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT - $16.75 to win $15.23

Spread: OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND - $17.14 to win $15.58

Parlay: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN - $20.00 to win $52.00

Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $7.50 to win $671.33

Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, NO -3.5 (-110) v. ARI, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, BUF +5.5 (-110) v. CLE, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $5.00 to win $1644.39

Bet Totals:	$110.00
Potential Winnings:	$2,438.17

Redundant? Yes. Ridiculous? Absolutely. A winner? Of course... not? I don't know, but the bets are in, and we shall see. Don't let me down now, Box!