Week 04 - The Box's Best Bets

Here they are, placed with cheap juice:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt
1	GB	@ TB	+1	18%	$17.38
2	ARI	@ NYJ	+1.5	18%	$17.29
3	BAL	@ PIT	+5	17%	$16.63
4	ATL	@ CAR	+6.5	17%	$16.39
5	SF	@ NO	+5	16%	$15.95
6	TEN	v. MIN	-3	15%	$14.59

and...

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt
1	BUF	@ STL	-360	39%	$13.94
2	ATL	@ CAR	+240	31%	$11.17
3	BAL	@ PIT	+190	29%	$10.39

for totals of:

Start Value
$247.66
Net of +/-
$0.00
Total Bank
$247.66
Bets Placed
$133.74

Very sexy. I'm glad I waited to get those extra games in, even if it cost me a couple of points on the spread. I'm going to run some teaser tests again, see if I can't break the teaser code and make it worth the bet. For now, hoping for a decent week to make up for last week.

"The Sports Guy" Hilarious Moment of the Week

Week 4's gem from Bill Simmons, referring to the TN v MIN game:

..."They (TN) have the league's best defense, and if you don't believe me, you will believe me this Sunday after they do everything short of actually having sex with Gus Frerotte."

It's gold Jerry, gold!

Back on the Horse - Week 4 Madcapping

Sorry I've been AWOL this week, the job that actually pays had me pretty tied up. So after last week's rotten performance, it's back on the horse this week. I'm very tempted to find two or three bets I like most and screw diversification. With the unpredictability of the NFL, this may actually work out better. Let's take a look at the matchups:

	GB	(+1) @ TB

...So let me get this straight: GB loses to DAllas like everyone else and they are 'dogs against the Bucs? Al Harris is out for a while, and TB beat CHI in OT last week, bu t I just don't see it. GB was a force in Weeks 1-3, and they still are.

Madcapping: GB 23 - TB 19
Confidence: 80%

ARI	(+1.5) @ NYJ

...I need to resist the urge to outsmart myself here. Reality is both these teams are unreliable, and anything could happen. Personally I like the Jets. They need the win more, and they are home against a team from the West. An often overlooked fact is that teams that travel cross country have a terrible record. Travel time and jet lag matter.

Madcapping: ARI 20 - NYJ 23
Confidence: 60%

ATL (+7)	@ CAR

...CAR lost its first game last week at MIN, and I am betting they are out for blood this week. ATL is 2-1, but their wins are against KC and DET. I love CAR to win this game, but the spread is high enough to raise concerns. The Moneyline and Teaser Bets should make this game more worthwhile.

Madcapping: ATL 9 - CAR 19
Confidence: 70%

SF	(+5.5) @ NO

...Very very interesting matchup. Normally I would say NO is going to blow out SF due to their offensive power, but #1 receiver Colston is out injured, as is TE Shockey. McCallister hasn't played yet due to injuries either. I've been touting the new SF QB O'Sullivan, for a couple weeks now, so it may just be time to put my money where my mouth is.

Madcapping: SF 20 - NO 19
Confidence: 70%

TEN	(-3) v. MIN

...Well MIN beat CAR last week and completely screwed me, so the question is will they beat arguably the AFC's toughest team on their turf? I think not. TN's Defense has proven itself to be stout, and I don't see MIN having enough firepower to score many points. TEN's ground game has been very effective, so I see this as a ball-control low scoring game. The TEN-3 spread makes this a difficult bet, though. I recommend staying away.

Madcapping: TN 14 - MIN 13
Confidence: NONE.

BUF	(-8) @ STL

...BUF is getting some serious credibility now, and against a terrible STL team this spread is certainly justifiable, but I just don't like betting on spreads this high. BUF in a teaser makes a lot of sense, so that's my call.

Madcapping: BUF 24 - STL 10
Confidence: 90% (6 point Teaser)

DEN	(-10) @ KC

...DEN's offense has been damn impressive, and KC has looked awful. KC is going back to Huard, which should keep this game closer than it otherwise would be, they are home in Arrowhead, and DEN hasn't shown much defensively. I like Denver to cover, but it's risky. Could be a good Teaser option, though.

Madcapping: DEN 30 - KC 20
Confidence: 80% (6 point Teaser)

WAS	(+11) @ DAL

...Betting against DAL this year is like betting against NE. They are gonna get huge spreads, but they are absolutely capable of blowing them up. Other than a Teaser, I'd stay away.

Madcapping: WAS 17 - DAL 27
Confidence: 80% (6 point Teaser)

CLE	(+3.5) @ CIN

...I think this game is a huge overreaction to CLE's losses to 3 tough teams and Cincy's playing NYG tough last week. The browns have cost me 3 weeks in a row, but I am tupid enough to stick with them one more week. I'd take the moneyline bet here and run.

Madcapping: CLE 24 - CIN 20
Confidence: 70%

OAK	(+9) v. SD

...So is Kiffin fired or not? It doesn't matter. This game is a matter of how badly will SD win. I like them to cover and I like them in a Teaser.

Madcapping: SD 30 - OAK 9
Confidence: 80%

JAC (-7.5)	v. HOU

...JAC got off to a rocky start with a banged up interior O-Line, but beat IND last week. HOU has not looked good offensively, so I think Vegas has set a very reasonable spread here. Could be another good Teaser Bet.

Madcapping: JAC 22 - HOU 14
Confidence: 80%

Week 04 - Preliminary Picks

The moneylines are in, a bunch of games are waiting on injury reports, but here are preliminary picks:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %
1	GB	@ TB	+1	21%
2	ARI	@ NYJ	+1.5	21%
3	ATL	@ CAR	+7	20%
4	SF	@ NO	+5.5	19%
5	TEN	v. MIN	-3	18%
6	BUF	@ STL	-8
7	DEN	@ KC	-10
8	WAS	@ DAL	+11
9	CLE	@ CIN	+3.5
10	OAK	v. SD	+9
11	JAC	v. HOU	-7.5

and ML:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %
1	BUF	@ STL	-360	40%
2	ATL	@ CAR	+260	31%
3	SF	@ NO	+200	29%
4	TEN	v. MIN	-160
5	DEN	@ KC	-460
6	CIN	v. CLE	-190
7	JAC	v. HOU	-350
8	SD	@ OAK	-350
9	DAL	v. WAS	-500

Bets I Love:
I love taking SF of NO surprisingly. I think NO secondary is suspect, they'll stack the line against Gore, and it'll be a much closer game than it seems. The GB pick seems like a trap to me, especially now that Al Harris is done for the season. But I do like the ARI pick over the Jets - Favre finally showed his true colors last week. He's like a lost child with the Jets, and the wear and tear of NYC will hit him harder and harder if they keep losing.

Bets I Hate:
ATL over CAR is just not something I can get into. I think ATL has a shot here, but they're so volatile. Also, I hate taking BUF over STL, no matter how sure a thing it seems. Last week, NE/MIA was just a total waste, considering my payout on the $12 bet was $1.80. Cost benefit = terrible.

Bets I Wish The Box Took:
CLE over CIN. I think Derek Andersen needs to fear for his job. Every game. I bet he plays twice as well. Last season he was constantly concerned that Quinn was a possiblity, no matter how well he played. I think CLE will run rampant, and people are overreacting to CIN's performance against the Giants last week.

Week 04 - This Could Be Awesome

I love some of the opportunities this week, I'm expecting a week rife with upsets and sweet moneyline love. There are a few OFF games, and Sportsbook has no lines for the PIT game (Willie Parker's out) and the PHI game (Westbrook/McNabb are questionable or out).

So for today, I'm going to give you power ranks. The power ranks are designed to include ONLY NON BYE WEEK TEAMS. It gives you the ranks of teams available for betting only, so no OFF teams either. What with them being the gambling power ranks, that makes sense. Tomorrow hopefully will settle some of the OFF ridiculosity (yeah, new word - I'm a linguist).

Power Ranks		▲▼
1	TEN	▲9
2	DAL	▲2
3	BUF	▲8
4	DEN	▲1
5	ATL	▲16
6	GB	▼3
7	SD	▼1
8	TB	▼6
9	MIN	▼8
10	ARI	▼2
11	SF	▲9
12	OAK	▲6
13	WAS	▲6
14	NO	▼5
15	CAR	▼8
16	NYJ	▼4
17	JAC
18	CLE	▼4
19	CIN	▼4
20	HOU	▼7
21	KC	▼5
22	STL

And the volatility/game value ranks are here:

Rank	GV	Vol
1	ARI	MIN
2	ATL	CLE
3	CAR	DEN
4	DEN	NO
5	GB	TB
6	SD	NYJ
7	SF	DAL
8	TB	TEN
9	WAS	KC
10	BUF	ARI
11	DAL	OAK
12	TEN	CAR
13	HOU	SD
14	JAC	HOU
15	MIN	BUF
16	NO	GB
17	NYJ	SF
18	OAK	ATL
19	CIN	CIN
20	CLE	JAC
21	KC	WAS
22	STL	STL

Surprise surprise, STL is the bottom of every rank. More importantly, look at BUF's volatility. BUF makes me nervous - everyone is very high on them, the box included, but they have yet to truly prove themselves.

More to come tomorrow...

Week 03 - Losses All Around

So, for some reason (I spent half the day trying to figure it out), my numbers were wrong. Not the win/loss, but the cash tracking. It turns out I got no action on a bet I thought there was action on, making my system very confused. Which means my system last week just looked wrong - I was actually up way more than I thought I was. And it also means this week was much worse than I thought, too. But it pretty much evened out, still up for the year, so here are the lovely results from Week 3's bets:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	TB	@ CHI	+3	26%	$24.80	W	$48.42
2	BAL	v. CLE	-2	25%	$23.75	W	$46.37
3	GB	v. DAL	+3	24%	$23.02	L	$0.00
4	ARI	@ WAS	+3	24%	$22.66	L	$0.00

and...

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	NE	v. MIA	-800	30%	$12.01	L	$0.00
2	ARI	@ WAS	+150	27%	$10.56	L	$0.00
3	TB	@ CHI	+135	24%	$9.28	W	$21.80
4	KC	@ ATL	+210	19%	$7.61	L	$0.00

For totals of...

Start Value
$264.75
Net of +/-
$0.00
Total Bank
$264.75
Bets Placed
$133.69
Bet Income
-$17.10
Ending Bank
$247.66
Total Return
-6.46%

Where the moneyline kept me afloat in week 1, it kicked my ass in week 3. NE blew up (could be a long year, but I like seeing lots of NE dogs coming up, which means lots of lopsided opportunity), ARI just got beat, and KC... well, they're KC. The spreads were close, especially considering ARI and GB could have almost gone either way (sort of). But I was up about 55 cents on spread bets this week.

The box is doing a nice job so far this year picking some of the least volatile games overall. And now that we're getting to week 4, we'll start to see game value play a bigger role (how a game's win or loss has eventual playoff implications, and how important it is to win that game). All in all, I can't complain, despite the mixed week.

Hopefully I'll have a bit more time this week to post, I just got a new job (woot!) so I'll take a while to settle into my rhythm. Suffice to say, betting will still play a big part.

Round up the Losses - Week 3

This week was Coyote Ugly, I'd chew my arm off to escape this week's results unnoticed. Even my last-second change to drop NE-6.5 in my 4th Teaser in favor of ATL+1 did nothing to save me. Only my low-stakes Den-230 bet won this week, here's how it went:

1st, what I did right:

1. TN+1 over HOU - TN is continuing to show they are a force in the AFC this year. I liked the Kerry Collins move, and they rolled over HOU as expected.

*Looking Forward: TN is 3-0 and probably will get bumped up by Vegas this week. Look out for unrealistic spreads.


2. PHI -3 over PIT - This game went as planned, with PHI just being better than PIT. I still like both these teams, but keep an eye on Rothlisberger's shoulder injury. I'm not even sure who their backup is...

*Looking Forward: Westbrook is out for a while, a big loss for PHI, but this team is very good. I'm not sure how Vegas will treat them since they are 2-1 but remember that loss came away at 3-0 Dallas.


3. DEN -230 - over NO - Turns out the spread was too high so my decision to stick with the MOneyline and use them as a +0.5 Teaser pick was well done. Both teams feature dynamic offenses with zero D.

*Looking Forward - NO dropped to 1-2 so look for them to be undervalued this week. They are goiong to win some games against teams that cannot keep up with their scoring ability. DEN is now 3-0 and is going to start getting high spreads that are going to be tough to justify.


4. ATL+1 over KC - This was a last-second entry to one of my Teasers based on KC's decision to start Tyler Thigpen at QB. ATL destroyed KC, who are looking very very bad.

*Looking Forward - I think I see the recipe here.... ATL has young talent that can outmatch weak opponents. This leads to them covering spreads in such games. Against stronger opponents their inexperience is a huge liabilty and they will get beaten badly.


4 good bets seems like a solid week, right? Well not when they're rolled up with these losers:

1. CAR +3.5 over MIN - This game looked so good to me last week, I am still in shock. Adrian Peterson has an injured hamstring, they are forced to bring in 37 yr old Frerotte due to poor QB play and CAR is healthy and on the rise, plus they get 3.5 points. MIN wins by 10, destroying not only the Moneyline bet (+170) and parlay, but the teaser with them at +9.5. This one killed me. I need to watch the highlights to see what happend here.

*Looking Forward: So is MIN the team everyone was droooling over in Preseason? I think it's safe to say we have no idea at this point. Their 0-2 start might have been an stumble, but I don't think we really know at this point. CAR is still a solid team worth taking a shot on.


2. CLE+2 over BAL - This was another death blow. I bet that they would snap out of their funk and return to last year's winning ways against a BAL team that on paper has very little to offer. Well I got punished for this wishful thinking in both my Moneyline (CLE +120) and Teaser (CLE+8) bets. It's amazing that low-scoring BAL was able to beat supposedly high-scoring CLE by more than 8 points, just amazing. I'm so depressed.

*Looking Forward: I think it's time to admit CLE is a loser this year. However, everyone else is thinking the same thing, so look for them to beat some spreads. BAL... I still know nothing about this team. They're 2-0, but with Flacco and Harbaugh in their frst year, will they keep it up? I'm guessing not, and hoping they get overrated by Vegas against some tougher teams.


3. DET+10 over SF - Yes, I praised JT O'Sullivan and than promptly bet against him... twice. My theory was that even if SF pulls out the victory, that DET's high-scoring offense would keep the game closer than 10 points. That was a great idea until they got rocked. How bad are the Lions exactly?

*Looking Forward: I was really hoping nobody but me would notice that the 49ers have looked very good so far. I'm guessing that the cat isn't in that bag anymore, so follow the spreads very carefuly. DET is a wildcard that will bust some spreads and never reward you. Only bet against them.


4. Buf +3.5 over OAK - I'm not sure what to do with Oakland. They busted up this spread, and really should have won this game.

*Looking Forward: I have a sneaking suspicion that this team is being held together with silly string by Kiffin.... and I just read he'll be fired today. Buf is 3-0, but cost me by not covering their spread against an apparently weak opponent. Bet them whenever they are 'dogs, but when is that going to happen exactly?

The SD -3 bet will be decided tonight, but my Teasers and Parlays are already busted, so it won't matter. Going 4-4 (so far) this week doesn't seem awful, but it hurts when those loses are divided up equally when you are parlay betting like me.

I have to stay the course, though. The only way to get back on top is to continue to bet big.

Weekly Bets = $40
Weekly Profit = (-$32)

Total Bets = $80
Total Profits = (-$22)
Total Return = -27.5%

"The Sports Guy" Hilarious Moment of the Week

This may become a weekly entry because Bill Simmons "Sports Guy" of ESPN.com's Page 2 cracks me up constantly, but I definitely needed to share this one.

Keep in mind that he is from the Boston area so naturally thinks Peyton Manning is a whiny bitch:

"You better sit down -- I'm about to say something nice about Peyton Manning. I sat in the Martha's Vineyard airport watching him steal that Minnesota game with a bum knee and a ravaged offensive line -- after unleashing a Hall of Fame Manning Face in the first half, no less -- and the thing that stood out was how, after a certain point, when Minny kept blowing chances to blow that game wide open, it became patently clear that Manning was going to make the Vikings pay, no matter how grim things looked. Now that, my friends, is a great player. I now will wash my eyes out with paprika."

... I haven't laughed so hard since Homer Simpson's "Yes Marge I will be nice to them, and then I will hug some snakes. Yes - I will hug and kiss some poisonous snakes!"

EDIT: OK, I should have finished the article, 'cause here's another one:

"...I worked in a restaurant once upon a time -- you can't tell me you "don't know where the remote is" when we both know you are just more interested in texting your friends. By the way, that was me who went into the bathroom and peed all over the toilet seat."

Fightin' Words - Capper vs. Box

Ah Matty, finally we are back to the good ol' days when we actually disagree! Last week we both had about a 25% return, and not surprisingly we picked a lot of the same victors. This week the box has a lot of wtf picks, methinks.

1. TB +3 vs CHI isn't a terrible pick, but this game could easily go CHI's way. I'm pretty shocked this is the number 1 confidence pick.

2. BAL -2 vs CLE... I know CLE hasn't shown much this year, but it's only been two games and they lost to two superpowers, PIT and DAL. This team is slightly banged up, but still has all the key components in place that led to their surprising success last year. BAL was god-awful last year, and I don't see where their improvents are. I have CLE in a number of bets this week, so prepare to duel my friend.

3. GB +3 vs DAL... Much like your #1 pick, I have no problem picking GB, but this could easily go to DAL also. Like I commented yesterday, are those 3 points really gonna make a difference? If DAL wins they could just as easily win by 4, 7, or 10, so why not pick the Moneyline and take the bonus payout?

4. ARI +3 @ WAS... Another 'yeah it could happen' pick. But how much do we really know about either of these two teams? Very surprised the box likes this game so much, and I'm worried it is based on ARI's stomping of weak teams. Even if you wanted to throw your money away on this game, I'd say take the Moneyline and hope for the bonus payout, 'cause those 3 points seem pretty irrelevant to me.

As you may know... I love the Teaser bet. I find that I lose many parlays and straight-up bets by just a few points, not because I was way off, and historically i tend to hit a lot of my Teaser bets. Case and point for me is last week where i landed a 4-team teaser. All this is leading up to something... I give you my Week 3 bets:

Parlays:

CAR +3.5 @ MIN -- PHI -3 vs. PIT -- CLE +2 @ BAL

Teasers:

1. SD -3 vs. NYJ -- TN +1 vs. HOU -- DET +10 @ SF
2. SD-3 vs. NYJ -- CAR +9.5 @ MIN -- BUF -3.5 vs. OAK
3. DEN +0.5 vs. NO -- TN +1 vs. HOU -- CLE +8 @ BAL
4. ATL +1 vs. KC -- PHI +3 vs. PIT -- DET +10 @ SF

Moneyline:

1. DEN -230 vs NO
2. CAR +170 @ MIN
3. CLE +120 @ BAL

Suck it.

Week 03 - Box's Prelim Picks

Without further ado, here are the box's early picks. I'll be placing bets tomorrow with cheap juice:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %
1	TB	@ CHI	+3	26%
2	BAL	v. CLE	-2	25%
3	GB	v. DAL	+3	24%
4	ARI	@ WAS	+3	24%
5	KC	@ ATL	+5.5
6	NO	@ DEN	+5.5
7	OAK	@ BUF	+9.5
8	JAC	@ IND	+5.5
9	DET	@ SF	+4
10	HOU	@ TEN	+5
11	PHI	v. PIT	-3
12	CIN	@ NYG	+13.5
13	NYJ	@ SD	+9
14	CAR	@ MIN	+3.5
15	MIA	@ NE	+12.5
16	SEA	v. STL	-9.5

and ML:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %
1	NE	v. MIA	-800	30%
2	ARI	@ WAS	+150	27%
3	TB	@ CHI	+130	25%
4	KC	@ ATL	+190	18%
5	GB	v. DAL	+145
6	SEA	v. STL	-480
7	BAL	v. CLE	-140
8	PHI	v. PIT	-190
9	MIN	v. CAR	-200
10	TEN	v. HOU	-220
11	SF	v. DET	-200
12	DEN	v. NO	-230
13	IND	v. JAC	-230
14	SD	v. NYJ	-430
15	NYG	v. CIN	-850
16	BUF	v. OAK	-480

That's right, the box is so compelled by New England, it's willing to take a totally worthless payout. And the box highly evaluates payouts - not most other worthless payouts are at the bottom. I'm unclear as to why this is so convicted, but meh - who am I to argue.

I know I have abandoned the parlay for the most part, but I've decided to include a suggested Teaser every week based on the box's historical win percentages. Here's the first one:

TB +9, BAL +4, ARI +9, and KC +11.5. My number 1, 2, 4, and 5 picks have historically done really well. Have yet to figure out what the deal is with that number 3 pick, but it's worth running the numbers to see how I do with these picks. Teasers tend to be so bad in the payouts that you're better off betting each game individually, but when in Rome...

Like a Grizzly Duels a Silverback: Capper vs. Vegas Week 3!

Vegas threw some heavy punches with their spreads this week. I have to say I am impressed, they make it very difficult to bet on the top teams, and make it risky to bet on the underdogs. Well done, chaps, well done...

Chiefs(KansasCity)	+190		+5
Falcons(Atlanta)	-230		-5
- I capped this game at ATL -1, so in theory I should go with KC, but how confident am I that KC stays within 2 field goals? Not at all. By the way Thigpen something or other is the new QB for KC. I'm absolutely staying away from this game. MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Raiders(Oakland)	+380		+9.5
Bills(Buffalo)	-480		-9.5
- I capped this game at Buf -7, so once again if I were to stick to my guns I'd have to pick the underdog. This is absolutely what I warned about yesterday - Vegas is over-reacting with big spreads to BUF's new-found success. I am confident BUF wins this game, so I would take them in a teaser, but not not straight-up giving up 9.5 points: MadCapper's Pick: BUF +3.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Texans(Houston)	+180		+5
Titans(Tennessee)	-220		-5
- I was giving TN 4 points, so I am pretty much in agreement with Vegas here. HOU is still sort of an unknown since Ike forced a bye last week, but TN has really shown it is tough on defense and can run the ball effectively. I like them to win at home, once again I say Teaser: MadCapper's Pick: TN +1 (6-point Teaser)) Confidence Level: 90%
Bengals(Cincinnati)	+625		+13.5
Giants(NewYork)	-850		-13.5
- Everyone is counting on this being a blowout, and the spread reflects this. Will NYG will by 13? 14? 10? 20? Predicting margins like this is unhealthy, so I say stay away. MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Cardinals(Arizona)	+150		+3 (-105)
Redskins(Washington)	-170		-3 (-115)
- I hit the nail on the head here with WAS -3. This is a risky game to me, despite ARI's "consistency" beating very weak teams to go 2-0. I'd say go with a Moneyline +150 wager and try to catch the bonus money, or swing a Teaser to make it ARI +9: MadCapper's Pick: ARI +9 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 60%
Dolphins(Miami)	+600		+12.5
Patriots(NewEngland)	-800		-12.5
- Wow! What difference a week makes, eh? NE wins a game against lowly KC, and MIA gets blown out by a high-powered offense and suddenly NE is a huge favorite? I absolutely think NE wins this game, but continues with their circa 2001 field position and ball control game plan. Can they win by 13? Sure! Is it a safe bet? Hell no... The Moneyline at -800 is worthless, and a Teaser only gets you down to -6.5: MadCapper's Pick: NE -6.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 60%
Buccaneers(TampaBay)	+130		+3
Bears(Chicago)	-150		-3
- Again Vegas and I slap five and give it at CHI -3. The box seems to love TB as an upset pick here, but I don't think so. TB lost to a suspect NO, beat a weak ATL and their starting QB is out injured. CHI upset Indy and hung tight with CAR to the end. I like CHI as a Moneyline pick, here, trading 3 points for a 2:3 payout: MadCapper's Pick: CHI -150 Confidence Level: 70%
Panthers(Carolina)	+170		+3.5
Vikings(Minnesota)	-200		-3.5
- Why is MIN still favored after going 0-2 and benching their starting QB you ask? NO CLUE! This is one of my picks of the week, I cap this at CAR -2, so I feel like I'm getting bonus money on the Moneyline, plus 5.5 more points than I need. Hell, I might even do a teaser to make it CAR +9.5, too! Do you really think MIN blows CAR out? MadCapper's Pick: CAR +3.5, CAR +170, CAR +9.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Rams(StLouis)	+380		+9.5
Seahawks(Seattle)	-480		-9.5
- eck. In other news, I tried a Bulgarian wine last night ("No Man's Land"). Apparently the vines grew into maturity along the Iron Curtain during the Cold War. Definitely drinkable, but tasted as cheap as it was ($4.99). MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Lions(Detroit)	+170		+4
49ers(SanFrancisco)	-200		-4
- Whoa ho ho.... Apparently someone else WAS watching JT O'Sullivan last week. As I mentioned yesterday, I am now a fan of Martz's new student, but I really didn't expect to see SF favored, let alone by so many. What jumps out at me is a Teaser gives DET +10. If SF wins this game, they are going to have to outgun Kitna, C. Johnson, and R. Williams. I don't see them winning by that many, if at all: MadCapper's Pick: DET +10 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Saints(NewOrleans)	+190		+5.5
Broncos(Denver)	-230		-5.5
- I really like DEN at home this week. I may even be willing to pay the terrible DEN -230 Moneyline. A teaser makes it basically straight up: MadCapper's Pick: DEN -230, DEN +0.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 80%
Steelers(Pittsburgh)	+165		+3 (+105)
Eagles(Philadelphia)	-190		-3 (-125)
- I like Philly by 6, so I like them in all sorts of bets this week: MadCapper's Pick: PHI -3, PHI -190, PHI+3 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 70%
Jaguars(Jacksonville)	+190		+5.5
Colts(Indianapolis)	-230		-5.5
- JAX traditionally matches up well with IND, so it's tempting to go with them and the points... but nah, too risky: MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Browns(Cleveland)	+120		+2
Ravens(Baltimore)	-140		-2
- This is my 2nd upside-down game of the week. I MadCap this game at CLE -2, so I'm looking at the Moneyline bonus payouts, the Teaser, and maybe in a parlay with the 2 points: MadCapper's Pick: CLE +120, CLE +2, CLE +8 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 70%
Cowboys(Dallas)	-165		-3 (-120)
Packers(GreenBay)	+145		+3 (even)
- GB finally got some respect this week. This is exactly like last week's game vs. PHI.... only DAL is not at home, but at Lambeau. Predicting the score of this game is nearly impossible, so I'd say if you're gonna bet it, nail the Moneyline with GB and hope for the bonus payout: MadCapper's Pick: GB+145 Confidence Level: 60% New York Jets +335 +9 San Diego Chargers -430 -9 - Wow I am having some technical difficulties with the formatting, but the point is SD definitely wins this game. The SD-3 Teaser is also a nice option here.
MadCapper's Pick: SD -3 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 80%