Mental Handicap

Week 13: Will the terrible streak continue?

2010-12-01T09:59:00.001-05:00

Honestly.

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt
CLE	@ MIA	+4.5	7.56%	$5.61
ATL	@ TB	-3	7.49%	$5.56
PIT	@ BAL	+3	7.44%	$5.52
ARI	v. STL	+3	7.37%	$5.47
BUF	@ MIN	+6	7.30%	$5.42
HOU	@ PHI	+8.5	7.23%	$5.37
WAS	@ NYG	+7	7.18%	$5.33
SEA	v. CAR	-6	7.11%	$5.28
NYJ	@ NE	+3.5	7.04%	$5.23
KC	v. DEN	-9	6.98%	$5.18
IND	v. DAL	-5.5	6.92%	$5.14
CIN	v. NO	+7	6.86%	$5.09
OAK	@ SD	+13	6.79%	$5.04
GB	v. SF	-10	6.73%	$5.00


Totals:		Bets:		$74.24
Totals:

PIT	@ BAL	+130	7.14%	$5.00
ARI	v. STL	+145	7.14%	$5.00
CLE	@ MIA	+180	7.14%	$5.00
NYJ	@ NE	+160	7.14%	$5.00
BUF	@ MIN	+220	7.14%	$5.00
SD	v. OAK	-600	7.14%	$5.00
GB	v. SF	-470	7.14%	$5.00
KC	v. DEN	-460	7.14%	$5.00
PHI	v. HOU	-390	7.14%	$5.00
NO	@ CIN	-300	7.14%	$5.00
NYG	v. WAS	-320	7.14%	$5.00
SEA	v. CAR	-250	7.14%	$5.00
IND	v. DAL	-240	7.14%	$5.00
ATL	@ TB	-145	7.14%	$5.00


Totals:		Bets:		$70.00
Totals:

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		6 - 3 - 1	56.04%
2	BAL	▲1	5 - 5 - 1
3	PIT	▼1	7 - 4 - 0
4	NE	▲3	5 - 3 - 2
5	CLE	▼1	4 - 5 - 1
6	NYJ	▼1	7 - 4 - 0
7	MIA	▼1	5 - 4 - 0
8	NYG	▲1	5 - 6 - 0
9	SF	▼1	5 - 6 - 0	53.43%
10	HOU	▲2	3 - 6 - 1
11	ATL	▲2	7 - 4 - 0
12	JAC	▲3	6 - 3 - 0
13	SEA	▼3	5 - 6 - 0
14	DEN		3 - 7 - 0
15	PHI	▼4	6 - 5 - 0
16	SD		6 - 5 - 0
17	STL	▲1	8 - 2 - 1
18	IND	▼1	5 - 4 - 2
19	CIN		3 - 8 - 0
20	TEN		5 - 4 - 0
21	CHI		4 - 4 - 1
22	TB	▲3	6 - 3 - 1
23	BUF	▲4	5 - 5 - 1
24	DET		8 - 2 - 0
25	OAK	▼3	3 - 5 - 1	37.89%
26	NO	▲2	3 - 7 - 0
27	MIN	▲2	4 - 6 - 0
28	GB	▼5	5 - 4 - 0
29	WAS	▼3	5 - 4 - 2
30	DAL		4 - 7 - 0
31	ARI		2 - 8 - 1
32	CAR		2 - 6 - 0

Week 12: I am terrible

2010-11-30T21:58:00.001-05:00

Forget units. You can just watch me lose.

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
PHI	@ CHI	-3	9.79%	$8.74	L	$0.00
SEA	v. KC	+1	9.44%	$8.43	L	$0.00
IND	v. SD	-3	9.09%	$8.12	L	$0.00
PIT	@ BUF	-6.5	8.74%	$7.80	L	$0.00
DET	v. NE	+7	8.39%	$7.49	L	$0.00
MIN	@ WAS	+2.5	8.04%	$7.18	W	$13.71
JAC	@ NYG	+7.5	7.69%	$6.87	W	$12.60
CIN	@ NYJ	+9	7.34%	$6.55	L	$0.00
ARI	v. SF	+1	6.99%	$6.24	L	$0.00
NO	@ DAL	-3.5	6.64%	$5.93	L	$0.00
DEN	v. STL	-4	6.29%	$5.62	L	$0.00
GB	@ ATL	+2	5.95%	$5.31	L	$0.00
BAL	v. TB	-7.5	5.60%	$5.00	L	$0.00



Totals:		Bets:		$89.28	Payout:	$26.30
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
6		7		W	L	P
46.15%		53.85%		2	11	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
6		7		15.38%
46.15%		53.85%		15.38%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
3		3		-70.54%
23.08%		23.08%		-70.54%

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
GB	@ ATL	+110	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
MIN	@ WAS	+120	9.09%	$5.00	W	$11.00
DET	v. NE	+250	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
JAC	@ NYG	+270	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NYJ	v. CIN	-400	9.09%	$5.00	W	$6.25
BAL	v. TB	-330	9.09%	$5.00	W	$6.52
PIT	@ BUF	-270	9.09%	$5.00	W	$6.85
PHI	@ CHI	-175	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NO	@ DAL	-190	9.09%	$5.00	W	$7.63
DEN	v. STL	-210	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
IND	v. SD	-165	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00





Totals:		Bets:		$55.00	Payout:	$38.25
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
7		4		W	L	P
63.64%		36.36%		5	6	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
5		6		45.45%
45.45%		54.55%		45.45%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		3		-30.46%
9.09%		27.27%		-30.46%

Summary
Week 11 2010	$318.03
Week 12 2010	$238.30
Return:	-25.07%
2010 Season Start:	$288.05
Week 12 2010	$238.30
Return:	-17.27%
2010 Record:	78 - 80 - 8
2010 Win %:	50.62%

Week 12: Falling Behind

2010-11-23T23:05:00.003-05:00

But seriously, be glad. My mean regression continues. Up only 10% on the year now, down from nearly 80%.

I'll spare you the bets, we'll just move to week 12, shall me? Gonna need some luck this week, maybe I can get a bounce (yes, the miracle in JAC did not help me... and yes, the Chansi Stuckey fumble in OT followed by about 30 missed tackles did not help me... and yes, every bounce in the last two weeks have gone against me... but at least the Pats are winning!).

1	PHI	@ CHI	-3	1.75
2	SEA	v. KC	+1	1.69
3	IND	v. SD	-3	1.62
4	PIT	@ BUF	-6.5	1.56
5	DET	v. NE	+7	1.50
6	MIN	@ WAS	+2.5	1.44
7	JAC	@ NYG	+7.5	1.37
8	CIN	@ NYJ	+9	1.31
9	ARI	v. SF	+1	1.25
10	NO	@ DAL	-3.5	1.19
11	DEN	v. STL	-4	1.12
12	GB	@ ATL	+2	1.06
13	BAL	v. TB	-7.5	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	17.86	Payout:	0.00

1	GB	@ ATL	+110	1.00
2	MIN	@ WAS	+120	1.00
3	DET	v. NE	+250	1.00
4	JAC	@ NYG	+270	1.00
5	NYJ	v. CIN	-400	1.00
6	BAL	v. TB	-330	1.00
7	PIT	@ BUF	-270	1.00
8	PHI	@ CHI	-175	1.00
9	NO	@ DAL	-190	1.00
10	DEN	v. STL	-210	1.00
11	IND	v. SD	-165	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	11.00	Payout:	0.00

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		5 - 3 - 1	56.77%
2	PIT		7 - 3 - 0
3	BAL		5 - 4 - 1
4	CLE		4 - 4 - 1
5	NYJ	▲2	6 - 4 - 0
6	MIA		5 - 3 - 0
7	NE	▲4	4 - 3 - 2
8	SF	▼3	4 - 6 - 0
9	NYG		5 - 5 - 0	53.41%
10	SEA		5 - 5 - 0
11	PHI	▲4	6 - 4 - 0
12	HOU	▲1	2 - 6 - 1
13	ATL	▲1	6 - 4 - 0
14	DEN	▼6	3 - 6 - 0
15	JAC	▼3	6 - 3 - 0
16	SD		5 - 5 - 0
17	IND	▲1	5 - 3 - 2
18	STL	▲1	7 - 2 - 1
19	CIN	▼2	3 - 7 - 0
20	TEN		5 - 4 - 0
21	CHI	▲3	4 - 4 - 1
22	OAK	▲1	3 - 4 - 1
23	GB	▲5	5 - 3 - 0
24	DET	▼3	8 - 2 - 0
25	TB		5 - 3 - 1	39.54%
26	WAS	▼4	5 - 3 - 2
27	BUF	▲3	4 - 5 - 1
28	NO	▼1	3 - 6 - 0
29	MIN		3 - 6 - 0
30	DAL	▼4	3 - 7 - 0
31	ARI		2 - 7 - 1
32	CAR		2 - 5 - 0

Week 10: Line moves

2010-11-13T18:05:00.001-05:00

HOME	LINE	Delt	Toward	TUES	LINE
ARI	-3			ARI	-3
BUF	-1.5	1.5	DET	ATL	-1
CHI	1.5	-0.5	MIN	BUF	-3
CLE	3			CHI	1
DEN	1			CLE	3
IND	-7			DEN	1
JAC	-1	0.5	HOU	IND	-7
MIA	1			JAC	-1.5
NYG	-13.5	0.5	DAL	MIA	1
PIT	-4.5			NYG	-14
SF	-5.5	0.5	STL	PIT	-4.5
TB	-7	-0.5	TB	SF	-6
WAS	3			TB	-6.5
				WAS	3

Week 10: The Thursday games already?

2010-11-11T14:08:00.000-05:00

I like and hate this week. A lot of trap game feels.

KC	@ DEN	-1	2.16
HOU	@ JAC	+1.5	2.07
TEN	@ MIA	-2	1.98
DET	@ BUF	+3	1.89
ATL	v. BAL	-1	1.80
CLE	v. NYJ	+3	1.71
PHI	@ WAS	-3	1.62
NE	@ PIT	+4.5	1.54
MIN	@ CHI	-1.5	1.45
DAL	@ NYG	+14	1.36
SF	v. STL	-6	1.27
CAR	@ TB	+6.5	1.18
IND	v. CIN	-7	1.09
SEA	@ ARI	+3	1.00
Totals:		Bets:	22.12	Payout:	0.00

DET	@ BUF	+120	1.00
NE	@ PIT	+190	1.00
CLE	v. NYJ	+155	1.00
SEA	@ ARI	+155	1.00
NYG	v. DAL	-700	1.00
IND	v. CIN	-340	1.00
TB	v. CAR	-270	1.00
SF	v. STL	-260	1.00
PHI	@ WAS	-170	1.00
TEN	@ MIA	-130	1.00
Totals:		Bets:	10.00	Payout:	0.00

HOU has the feeling of a trap game.

So does TEN. MIA as a home dog is tough to bet against. Big money already came in on TEN, too - opened at TEN -1.

KC feels like a trap, DEN needs a win.

And then the NYJ looks like the anti trap - CLE is getting less for shelling my Pats last week, but that was more an anomaly than a new reality I think. NE has a weak D, if CLE can move the ball with Hillis more than 25 yds the whole game I'll be impressed.

And the rankings - tons of motion, still worthless.

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		4 - 2 - 1	57.37%
2	PIT	▲1	6 - 2 - 0
3	BAL	▼1	4 - 3 - 1
4	NYG	▲2	5 - 3 - 0
5	NYJ	▲4	5 - 3 - 0
6	MIA	▲2	4 - 3 - 0
7	SF		4 - 4 - 0
8	HOU	▲3	2 - 5 - 1
9	CLE	▲5	4 - 3 - 1	53.29%
10	ATL	▲5	4 - 4 - 0
11	SEA	▼7	4 - 4 - 0
12	NE	▼7	3 - 3 - 1
13	DEN	▲6	2 - 5 - 0
14	PHI	▼2	4 - 4 - 0
15	SD	▼2	3 - 5 - 0
16	TEN	▲5	5 - 3 - 0
17	CIN	▼1	2 - 6 - 0
18	STL	▼8	6 - 1 - 1
19	IND	▼1	5 - 2 - 1
20	JAC	▲2	4 - 3 - 0
21	DET	▲5	7 - 1 - 0
22	OAK	▼2	3 - 4 - 0
23	MIN	▼6	3 - 4 - 0
24	WAS	▼1	4 - 2 - 2
25	BUF	▲5	3 - 4 - 1	33.85%
26	NO	▲1	1 - 6 - 0
27	GB	▲1	3 - 3 - 0
28	CHI	▼4	2 - 4 - 1
29	TB		3 - 3 - 1
30	DAL	▼5	1 - 7 - 0
31	CAR		2 - 4 - 0
32	ARI		2 - 5 - 1

Week 09: Results

2010-11-10T21:06:00.001-05:00

This week was what we call a "regression to the mean".

Balls.

1	KC	@ OAK	+3	2.62	P	2.62
2	SEA	v. NYG	+6	2.47	L	0.00
3	DET	v. NYJ	+4	2.32	W	4.43
4	PIT	@ CIN	-4.5	2.17	W	4.15
5	MIA	@ BAL	+5	2.03	L	0.00
6	CHI	@ BUF	-3	1.88	P	1.88
7	HOU	v. SD	+2.5	1.73	L	0.00
8	NE	@ CLE	-5	1.59	L	0.00
9	ATL	v. TB	-8	1.44	L	0.00
10	PHI	v. IND	-3	1.29	L	0.00
11	MIN	v. ARI	-9	1.15	L	0.00
12	DAL	@ GB	+8	1.00	L	0.00




	Totals:		Bets:	21.68	Payout:	13.08
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				2	8	2
	Week Win Percent:
	16.67%
	16.67%
	Bet Win Percent:
	-39.69%
	-39.69%

1	HOU	v. SD	+120	1.00	L	0.00
2	KC	@ OAK	+125	1.00	L	0.00
3	DET	v. NYJ	+180	1.00	L	0.00
4	MIA	@ BAL	+190	1.00	L	0.00
5	SEA	v. NYG	+230	1.00	L	0.00
6	ATL	v. TB	-400	1.00	W	1.25
7	MIN	v. ARI	-450	1.00	W	1.22
8	GB	v. DAL	-400	1.00	W	1.25
9	NE	@ CLE	-230	1.00	L	0.00
10	CHI	@ BUF	-150	1.00	W	1.67
11	PHI	v. IND	-150	1.00	W	1.67





	Totals:		Bets:	11.00	Payout:	7.06
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				5	6	0
	Week Win Percent:
	45.45%
	45.45%
	Bet Win Percent:
	-35.86%
	-35.86%

GRAND TOTAL:	-38.40%	20.13
		32.68
		-12.55

Week 09: Mossless, but still favored...

2010-11-02T12:29:00.000-04:00

I didn't like a lot last week, but still did fine. This week, I like the 4 home dogs. But...

1	KC	@ OAK	+3	2.62
2	SEA	v. NYG	+6	2.47
3	DET	v. NYJ	+4	2.32
4	PIT	@ CIN	-4.5	2.17
5	MIA	@ BAL	+5	2.03
6	CHI	@ BUF	-3	1.88
7	HOU	v. SD	+2.5	1.73
8	NE	@ CLE	-5	1.59
9	ATL	v. TB	-8	1.44
10	PHI	v. IND	-3	1.29
11	MIN	v. ARI	-9	1.15
12	DAL	@ GB	+8	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	21.68	Payout:	0.00

1	HOU	v. SD	+120	1.00
2	KC	@ OAK	+125	1.00
3	DET	v. NYJ	+180	1.00
4	MIA	@ BAL	+190	1.00
5	SEA	v. NYG	+230	1.00
6	ATL	v. TB	-400	1.00
7	MIN	v. ARI	-450	1.00
8	GB	v. DAL	-400	1.00
9	NE	@ CLE	-230	1.00
10	CHI	@ BUF	-150	1.00
11	PHI	v. IND	-150	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	11.00	Payout:	0.00

... PHI over IND? Hard to bet against Peyton, even without Clark.

DET as a home dog in Bill Simmons' "vegas zone"... not bad, but makes me nervous. Rex will have his team bounce back hard.

KC getting 3 is epic to me, even if it's at OAK. Why? Because by the time this posts, I bet KC has Moss.

Worst pick of the week? MIN -9. This team is imploding. Unless AP gets 45 carries and TJ replaces old man winter, I think this game is actually a W for ARI.

And the "power" rankings... as IF they had power.

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		4 - 2 - 0	58.78%
2	BAL	▲1	3 - 3 - 1
3	PIT	▲1	5 - 2 - 0
4	SEA	▼2	4 - 3 - 0
5	NE	▲1	3 - 2 - 1
6	NYG	▲1	4 - 3 - 0
7	SF	▲2	3 - 4 - 0
8	MIA		4 - 2 - 0
9	NYJ	▼4	5 - 2 - 0	52.05%
10	STL	▲6	5 - 1 - 1
11	HOU	▲6	2 - 4 - 1
12	PHI	▼2	4 - 3 - 0
13	SD		3 - 5 - 0
14	CLE	▼2	3 - 3 - 1
15	ATL	▼4	4 - 3 - 0
16	CIN	▼1	2 - 5 - 0
17	MIN	▼3	3 - 3 - 0
18	IND	▲1	4 - 2 - 1
19	DEN	▲2	2 - 4 - 0
20	OAK	▲10	3 - 4 - 0
21	TEN	▼1	5 - 2 - 0
22	JAC	▲3	3 - 3 - 0
23	WAS		4 - 1 - 2
24	CHI	▼2	2 - 4 - 0
25	DAL	▼7	1 - 6 - 0	38.78%
26	DET	▼2	6 - 1 - 0
27	NO	▲2	1 - 6 - 0
28	GB	▼1	3 - 3 - 0
29	TB	▼1	2 - 3 - 1
30	BUF	▼4	3 - 4 - 0
31	CAR		2 - 3 - 0
32	ARI		1 - 5 - 1

Week 08: Results

2010-11-01T20:25:00.000-04:00

1	SF	v. DEN	-1	2.65	W	5.06
2	SEA	@ OAK	+2.5	2.50	L	0.00
3	DET	v. WAS	-2.5	2.35	W	4.49
4	MIA	@ CIN	+1.5	2.20	W	4.20
5	TEN	@ SD	+3.5	2.05	L	0.00
6	STL	v. CAR	-3	1.90	W	3.71
7	KC	v. BUF	-7.5	1.75	L	0.00
8	TB	@ ARI	+3	1.60	W	3.12
9	JAC	@ DAL	+6.5	1.45	W	2.77
10	GB	@ NYJ	+6	1.30	W	2.48
11	HOU	@ IND	+5.5	1.15	L	0.00
12	PIT	@ NO	0	1.00	W	0.00




	Totals:		Bets:	21.90	Payout:	25.83
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				8	4	0
	Week Win Percent:
	66.67%
	66.67%
	Bet Win Percent:
	17.94%
	17.94%

1	SEA	@ OAK	+110	1.00	L	0.00
2	TB	@ ARI	+140	1.00	W	2.40
3	TEN	@ SD	+165	1.00	L	0.00
4	JAC	@ DAL	+230	1.00	W	3.30
5	KC	v. BUF	-330	1.00	W	1.30
6	NYJ	v. GB	-240	1.00	L	0.00
7	IND	v. HOU	-240	1.00	W	1.42
8	STL	v. CAR	-145	1.00	W	1.69
9	DET	v. WAS	-135	1.00	W	1.74







	Totals:		Bets:	9.00	Payout:	11.85
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				6	3	0
	Week Win Percent:
	66.67%
	66.67%
	Bet Win Percent:
	31.67%
	31.67%

GRAND TOTAL:	21.94%	37.68
		30.90
		6.78

Week 08: Half the Season, gone already???

2010-10-28T12:34:00.000-04:00

I hate every pick this week but one: GB +6. Here are the picks and a bit of commentary:

1	SF	v. DEN	-1	2.65
2	SEA	@ OAK	+2.5	2.50
3	DET	v. WAS	-2.5	2.35
4	MIA	@ CIN	+1.5	2.20
5	TEN	@ SD	+3.5	2.05
6	STL	v. CAR	-3	1.90
7	KC	v. BUF	-7.5	1.75
8	TB	@ ARI	+3	1.60
9	JAC	@ DAL	+6.5	1.45
10	GB	@ NYJ	+6	1.30
11	HOU	@ IND	+5.5	1.15
12	PIT	@ NO	0	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	21.90

1	SEA	@ OAK	+110	1.00
2	TB	@ ARI	+140	1.00
3	TEN	@ SD	+165	1.00
4	JAC	@ DAL	+230	1.00
5	KC	v. BUF	-330	1.00
6	NYJ	v. GB	-240	1.00
7	IND	v. HOU	-240	1.00
8	STL	v. CAR	-145	1.00
9	DET	v. WAS	-135	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	9.00

Here's what I think:

DEN bounces back this week. SF is terrible on the road, and London is waaaaay on the road.

SEA pick isn't bad, but OAK at home will keep it tight.

How is DET even a favorite over WAS in the first place? Is McNabb still playing?

Like the MIA pick.

This is the point in the season where SD realizes it has to win to make the playoffs, go 7-2 for the rest of the season, and Norv figures out a way to blow the wildcard. Something like 4th and 2 on the opp 38 yard line and he punts, even though he's behind by 4 with 4 min to go. You know - dumb. Long way of saying watch SD lay 50 on TEN this week.

BUF is switching back to a 4-3. That means a more confident defense to compliment an already scrappy offense (who is Steve Johnson anyway? which jerk in your fantasy league has him on their bench?). KC is a paper tiger - this year's CIN. BUF wins this outright. Hate this pick.

TB pick is ok.

JAC pick is ok.

Love the GB pick. Clay Matthews might have 4 sacks of Sanchez. I'm not just saying that because I hate the Jets and hope it happens.

IND should be giving 10 and it still wouldn't be enough. They'll stack 10 in the box with a single free safety to cover the entire receiving core (Andre Johnson = fantasy bust so far), Arian Foster will run for 3 yards in 45 attempts, and Peyton will throw for 825 yards with 6 TDs as the ultimate, "you had your one victory, now go fuck yourselves" game.

NO will get up for this game, and PIT just lost Aaron Smith, the anchor of their defensive front line. The wildcard is the NO secondary - Big Ben is pasting teams, it's strength against weakness. PIT looks good in this if the D holds sans Smith.

And we'll wrap with the lame and useless power rankings:

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		4 - 1 - 0	64.38%
2	SEA		4 - 2 - 0
3	BAL		3 - 2 - 1
4	PIT		4 - 2 - 0
5	NYJ		5 - 1 - 0
6	NE	▲1	2 - 2 - 1
7	NYG	▼1	3 - 3 - 0
8	MIA		3 - 2 - 0
9	SF	▲1	3 - 4 - 0	51.12%
10	PHI	▲8	4 - 2 - 0
11	ATL	▼2	3 - 3 - 0
12	CLE	▲2	2 - 3 - 1
13	SD		2 - 5 - 0
14	MIN	▲5	3 - 2 - 0
15	CIN	▲1	2 - 4 - 0
16	STL	▼1	5 - 1 - 1
17	HOU	▼6	2 - 3 - 1
18	DAL	▼1	1 - 5 - 0
19	IND	▼7	3 - 2 - 1
20	TEN		5 - 2 - 0
21	DEN		2 - 4 - 0
22	CHI	▲1	2 - 3 - 0
23	WAS	▲3	4 - 1 - 2
24	DET	▲4	5 - 1 - 0
25	JAC	▼3	3 - 3 - 0	33.24%
26	BUF	▼2	2 - 4 - 0
27	GB	▲2	2 - 3 - 0
28	TB	▼1	1 - 3 - 1
29	NO	▼4	1 - 6 - 0
30	OAK		2 - 4 - 0
31	CAR		2 - 3 - 0
32	ARI		1 - 4 - 1

Week 07: Results

2010-10-27T22:33:00.000-04:00

A good week.

1	NYG	@ DAL	+3	2.07	W	4.13
2	PIT	@ MIA	-3	1.97	L	0.00
3	SEA	v. ARI	-5.5	1.87	W	3.58
4	SF	@ CAR	-3	1.78	L	0.00
5	NE	@ SD	+3	1.68	W	2.97
6	STL	@ TB	+3	1.58	W	2.96
7	PHI	@ TEN	+3	1.48	L	0.00
8	WAS	@ CHI	+3	1.39	W	2.54
9	ATL	v. CIN	-3.5	1.29	W	2.46
10	GB	v. MIN	-3	1.19	W	2.45
11	CLE	@ NO	+13	1.10	W	2.09
12	BUF	@ BAL	+13	1.00	W	1.91




	Totals:		Bets:	18.40	Payout:	25.09
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				9	3	0
	Week Win Percent:
	75.00%
	75.00%
	Bet Win Percent:
	36.38%
	36.38%

1	NE	@ SD	+120	1.00	W	2.20
2	STL	@ TB	+130	1.00	L	0.00
3	WAS	@ CHI	+130	1.00	W	2.30
4	PHI	@ TEN	+140	1.00	L	0.00
5	NYG	@ DAL	+155	1.00	W	2.55
6	NO	v. CLE	-700	1.00	L	0.00
7	BAL	v. BUF	-700	1.00	W	1.14
8	SEA	v. ARI	-270	1.00	W	1.37
9	ATL	v. CIN	-180	1.00	W	1.56
10	PIT	@ MIA	-150	1.00	W	1.67
11	SF	@ CAR	-150	1.00	L	0.00
12	GB	v. MIN	-140	1.00	W	1.71




	Totals:		Bets:	12.00	Payout:	14.50
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				8	4	0
	Week Win Percent:
	66.67%
	66.67%
	Bet Win Percent:
	20.83%
	20.83%

GRAND TOTAL:	30.24%	39.59
		30.40
		9.19

Week 07: Almost forgot...

2010-10-24T12:21:00.002-04:00

1	NYG	@ DAL	+3	2.07
2	PIT	@ MIA	-3	1.97
3	SEA	v. ARI	-5.5	1.87
4	SF	@ CAR	-3	1.78
5	NE	@ SD	+3	1.68
6	STL	@ TB	+3	1.58
7	PHI	@ TEN	+3	1.48
8	WAS	@ CHI	+3	1.39
9	ATL	v. CIN	-3.5	1.29
10	GB	v. MIN	-3	1.19
11	CLE	@ NO	+13	1.10
12	BUF	@ BAL	+13	1.00




	Totals:		Bets:	18.40

1	NE	@ SD	+120	1.00
2	STL	@ TB	+130	1.00
3	WAS	@ CHI	+130	1.00
4	PHI	@ TEN	+140	1.00
5	NYG	@ DAL	+155	1.00
6	NO	v. CLE	-700	1.00
7	BAL	v. BUF	-700	1.00
8	SEA	v. ARI	-270	1.00
9	ATL	v. CIN	-180	1.00
10	PIT	@ MIA	-150	1.00
11	SF	@ CAR	-150	1.00
12	GB	v. MIN	-140	1.00




	Totals:		Bets:	12.00

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		3 - 1 - 0	62.92%
2	SEA		3 - 2 - 0
3	BAL	▲1	3 - 2 - 1
4	PIT	▲1	4 - 1 - 0
5	NYJ	▼2	4 - 1 - 0
6	NYG	▲2	3 - 3 - 0
7	NE	▼1	2 - 2 - 1
8	MIA	▲4	2 - 2 - 0
9	ATL	▼2	3 - 3 - 0	48.33%
10	SF	▲7	3 - 3 - 0
11	HOU	▼2	2 - 2 - 1
12	IND	▲2	3 - 2 - 0
13	SD	▼3	2 - 4 - 0
14	CLE	▼1	2 - 3 - 1
15	STL		4 - 1 - 1
16	CIN	▼5	2 - 3 - 0
17	DAL	▲1	1 - 4 - 0
18	PHI	▲1	4 - 2 - 0
19	MIN	▼3	3 - 2 - 0
20	TEN	▲5	4 - 2 - 0
21	DEN	▲1	2 - 3 - 0
22	JAC	▼2	3 - 2 - 0
23	CHI	▲1	2 - 3 - 0
24	BUF	▼3	1 - 4 - 0
25	NO	▲2	1 - 5 - 0	40.10%
26	WAS		3 - 1 - 2
27	TB	▼4	1 - 2 - 1
28	DET	▲1	4 - 1 - 0
29	GB	▼1	1 - 3 - 0
30	OAK		2 - 3 - 0
31	CAR		1 - 3 - 0
32	ARI		1 - 3 - 1

Week 06: Results

2010-10-24T12:13:00.000-04:00

1	KC	@ HOU	+4.5	1.77	W	3.38
2	NYJ	@ DEN	-3	1.71	W	3.19
3	SEA	@ CHI	+6.5	1.64	W	3.14
4	ATL	@ PHI	+3	1.58	L	0.00
5	DAL	@ MIN	+1.5	1.51	L	0.00
6	NE	v. BAL	-3	1.45	P	1.45
7	TEN	@ JAC	-3	1.39	W	2.77
8	STL	v. SD	+8.5	1.32	W	2.52
9	DET	@ NYG	+10	1.26	W	2.40
10	CLE	@ PIT	+14	1.19	L	0.00
11	WAS	v. IND	+3	1.13	P	1.13
12	OAK	@ SF	+6.5	1.06	L	0.00
13	TB	v. NO	+4.5	1.00	L	0.00



	Totals:		Bets:	18.02	Payout:	19.99

1	ATL	@ PHI	+125	1.00	L	0.00
2	KC	@ HOU	+175	1.00	L	0.00
3	WAS	v. IND	+150	1.00	L	0.00
4	SEA	@ CHI	+245	1.00	W	3.45
5	STL	v. SD	+340	1.00	W	4.40
6	PIT	v. CLE	-800	1.00	W	1.13
7	NYG	v. DET	-500	1.00	W	1.20
8	SF	v. OAK	-250	1.00	W	1.40
9	NYJ	@ DEN	-170	1.00	W	1.59
10	NO	@ TB	-210	1.00	W	1.48
11	NE	v. BAL	-140	1.00	W	1.71
12	TEN	@ JAC	-140	1.00	W	1.71




	Totals:		Bets:	12.00	Payout:	18.07

Week 06: Power Rank Me

2010-10-15T12:59:00.000-04:00

This still doesn't actually work predictively as I hoped it would, but... here they are until I figure it out.

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		3 - 1 - 0	63.75%
2	SEA		2 - 2 - 0
3	NYJ		4 - 1 - 0
4	BAL		3 - 2 - 0
5	PIT		3 - 1 - 0
6	NE		2 - 2 - 0
7	ATL	▲4	3 - 2 - 0
8	NYG	▲2	3 - 2 - 0
9	HOU	▲6	2 - 2 - 1	49.17%
10	SD	▼1	2 - 3 - 0
11	CIN	▲1	2 - 2 - 0
12	MIA	▲1	2 - 1 - 0
13	CLE	▼5	2 - 2 - 1
14	IND		3 - 2 - 0
15	STL	▼8	3 - 1 - 1
16	MIN	▲5	2 - 2 - 0
17	SF		2 - 3 - 0
18	DAL		1 - 3 - 0
19	PHI		3 - 2 - 0
20	JAC		3 - 2 - 0
21	BUF	▲7	1 - 3 - 0
22	DEN	▲2	2 - 3 - 0
23	TB	▼7	1 - 1 - 1
24	CHI	▲3	2 - 2 - 0
25	TEN	▲1	3 - 2 - 0	41.15%
26	WAS	▼3	3 - 1 - 1
27	NO	▼2	0 - 5 - 0
28	GB	▼6	1 - 2 - 0
29	DET	▲3	4 - 1 - 0
30	OAK	▼1	2 - 3 - 0
31	CAR	▼1	1 - 2 - 0
32	ARI	▼1	0 - 3 - 1

Week 06: Reporting in Units

2010-10-15T10:57:00.000-04:00

To make things easier, rather than dollar amounts, everything will be in "units" from now on. 1 unit is whatever your minimum is.

Pick	Vs	Spd	Units	W/L	Payout
KC	@ HOU	+4.5	1.77
NYJ	@ DEN	-3	1.71
SEA	@ CHI	+6.5	1.64
ATL	@ PHI	+3	1.58
DAL	@ MIN	+1.5	1.51
NE	v. BAL	-3	1.45
TEN	@ JAC	-3	1.39
STL	v. SD	+8.5	1.32
DET	@ NYG	+10	1.26
CLE	@ PIT	+14	1.19
WAS	v. IND	+3	1.13
OAK	@ SF	+6.5	1.06
TB	v. NO	+4.5	1.00



Totals:		Bets:	18.02	Payout:	0.00

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
ATL	@ PHI	+125	1.00
KC	@ HOU	+175	1.00
WAS	v. IND	+150	1.00
SEA	@ CHI	+245	1.00
STL	v. SD	+340	1.00
PIT	v. CLE	-800	1.00
NYG	v. DET	-500	1.00
SF	v. OAK	-250	1.00
NYJ	@ DEN	-170	1.00
NO	@ TB	-210	1.00
NE	v. BAL	-140	1.00
TEN	@ JAC	-140	1.00




Totals:		Bets:	12.00	Payout:	0.00

Week 05: Results

2010-10-14T22:54:00.001-04:00

	Pick	Vs	Spd	Units	W/L	Payout
1	PHI	@ SF	+3.5	1.47	W	2.69
2	JAC	@ BUF	-1	1.43	W	2.74
3	KC	@ IND	+8.5	1.40	L	0.00
4	NYJ	v. MIN	-4	1.36	W	2.60
5	GB	@ WAS	-2.5	1.32	L	0.00
6	NYG	@ HOU	+3	1.29	W	2.41
7	TB	@ CIN	+6.5	1.25	W	2.39
8	STL	@ DET	+3	1.22	L	0.00
9	TEN	@ DAL	+6.5	1.18	W	2.25
10	SD	@ OAK	-6.5	1.14	L	0.00
11	ATL	@ CLE	-3	1.11	W	2.22
12	NO	@ ARI	-7	1.07	L	0.00
13	DEN	@ BAL	+7	1.04	L	0.00
14	CHI	@ CAR	-3	1.00	W	2.05


	Totals:		Bets:	17.28	Payout:	19.35
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				8	6	0
	Week Win Percent:
	57.14%
	57.14%
	Bet Win Percent:
	11.95%
	11.95%

	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	NYG	@ HOU	+130	1.00	W	2.30
2	STL	@ DET	+140	1.00	L	0.00
3	PHI	@ SF	+155	1.00	W	2.55
4	TB	@ CIN	+245	1.00	W	3.45
5	TEN	@ DAL	+245	1.00	W	3.45
6	KC	@ IND	+320	1.00	L	0.00
7	NO	@ ARI	-290	1.00	L	0.00
8	SD	@ OAK	-270	1.00	L	0.00
9	BAL	v. DEN	-320	1.00	W	1.31
10	NYJ	v. MIN	-190	1.00	W	1.53
11	ATL	@ CLE	-150	1.00	W	1.67
12	CHI	@ CAR	-140	1.00	W	1.71
13	GB	@ WAS	-135	1.00	L	0.00



	Totals:		Bets:	13.00	Payout:	17.97
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				8	5	0
	Week Win Percent:
	61.54%
	61.54%
	Bet Win Percent:
	38.23%
	38.23%

Week 05: Randy Moss Means Nothing

2010-10-07T11:23:00.000-04:00

Well, not literally. But it didn't shake the line or the expectations.

PHI	@ SF	+3.5	9%
JAC	@ BUF	-1	8%
KC	@ IND	+8.5	8%
NYJ	v. MIN	-4	8%
GB	@ WAS	-2.5	8%
NYG	@ HOU	+3	7%
TB	@ CIN	+6.5	7%
STL	@ DET	+3	7%
TEN	@ DAL	+6.5	7%
SD	@ OAK	-6.5	7%
ATL	@ CLE	-3	6%
NO	@ ARI	-7	6%
DEN	@ BAL	+7	6%
CHI	@ CAR	-3	6%

Money:

NYG	@ HOU	+130	8%
STL	@ DET	+140	8%
PHI	@ SF	+155	8%
TB	@ CIN	+245	8%
TEN	@ DAL	+245	8%
KC	@ IND	+320	8%
NO	@ ARI	-290	8%
SD	@ OAK	-270	8%
BAL	v. DEN	-320	8%
NYJ	v. MIN	-190	8%
ATL	@ CLE	-150	8%
CHI	@ CAR	-140	8%
GB	@ WAS	-135	8%

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		3 - 0 - 0	73.96%
2	SEA		2 - 1 - 0
3	NYJ	▲2	3 - 1 - 0
4	BAL	▼1	2 - 2 - 0
5	PIT	▼1	3 - 0 - 0
6	NE	▲2	1 - 2 - 0
7	STL		3 - 0 - 1
8	CLE	▼2	2 - 1 - 1
9	SD	▲4	2 - 2 - 0	48.96%
10	NYG	▲5	2 - 2 - 0
11	ATL	▼1	2 - 2 - 0
12	CIN	▼3	2 - 2 - 0
13	MIA	▼2	2 - 1 - 0
14	IND	▼2	2 - 2 - 0
15	HOU	▲5	2 - 1 - 1
16	TB	▼2	0 - 1 - 1
17	SF	▲9	2 - 2 - 0
18	DAL		1 - 2 - 0
19	PHI	▲4	2 - 2 - 0
20	JAC	▲10	2 - 2 - 0
21	MIN		2 - 1 - 0
22	GB		1 - 2 - 0
23	WAS	▲2	2 - 1 - 1
24	DEN	▼5	2 - 2 - 0
25	NO	▼9	0 - 4 - 0	30.21%
26	TEN	▼2	2 - 2 - 0
27	CHI	▼10	1 - 2 - 0
28	BUF	▲4	1 - 3 - 0
29	OAK		1 - 3 - 0
30	CAR	▲1	1 - 2 - 0
31	ARI	▼3	0 - 3 - 1
32	DET	▼5	3 - 1 - 0

Week 04: Results

2010-10-06T21:22:00.000-04:00

Tepid.

SEA	@ STL	-1	9%	$8.85	L	$0.00
PIT	v. BAL	-1.5	9%	$8.55	L	$0.00
NE	@ MIA	-1	9%	$8.26	W	$15.76
CHI	@ NYG	+4	8%	$7.96	L	$0.00
NYJ	@ BUF	-5	8%	$7.66	W	$14.63
HOU	@ OAK	-3	8%	$7.37	W	$13.26
ATL	v. SF	-6.5	7%	$7.07	L	$0.00
ARI	@ SD	+8	7%	$6.77	L	$0.00
PHI	v. WAS	-6	7%	$6.48	L	$0.00
IND	@ JAC	-7.5	6%	$6.18	L	$0.00
DEN	@ TEN	+6.5	6%	$5.89	W	$11.24
DET	@ GB	+14.5	6%	$5.59	W	$10.67
CAR	@ NO	+13.5	5%	$5.29	W	$10.10
CLE	v. CIN	+3	5%	$5.00	W	$10.00


Totals:		Bets:		$96.92	Payout:	$85.66
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
8		6		W	L	P
57.14%		42.86%		7	7	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
4		10		50.00%
28.57%		71.43%		50.00%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		5		-11.62%
7.14%		35.71%		-11.62%

CLE	v. CIN	+145	10%	$5.00	W	$12.25
CHI	@ NYG	+175	10%	$5.00	L	$0.00
ARI	@ SD	+320	10%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NO	v. CAR	-680	10%	$5.00	W	$5.74
IND	@ JAC	-360	10%	$5.00	L	$0.00
ATL	v. SF	-270	10%	$5.00	W	$6.85
PHI	v. WAS	-250	10%	$5.00	L	$0.00
TEN	v. DEN	-250	10%	$5.00	L	$0.00
HOU	@ OAK	-175	10%	$5.00	W	$7.86
NYJ	@ BUF	-220	10%	$5.00	W	$7.27






Totals:		Bets:		$50.00	Payout:	$39.97
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
7		3		W	L	P
70.00%		30.00%		5	5	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
5		5		50.00%
50.00%		50.00%		50.00%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		3		-20.07%
10.00%		30.00%		-20.07%

Week 04: Bets and Power Ranks

2010-09-29T21:12:00.000-04:00

Spread:

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
SEA	@ STL	-1	9%	$8.85
PIT	v. BAL	-1.5	9%	$8.55
NE	@ MIA	-1	9%	$8.26
CHI	@ NYG	+4	8%	$7.96
NYJ	@ BUF	-5	8%	$7.66
HOU	@ OAK	-3	8%	$7.37
ATL	v. SF	-6.5	7%	$7.07
ARI	@ SD	+8	7%	$6.77
PHI	v. WAS	-6	7%	$6.48
IND	@ JAC	-7.5	6%	$6.18
DEN	@ TEN	+6.5	6%	$5.89
DET	@ GB	+14.5	6%	$5.59
CAR	@ NO	+13.5	5%	$5.29
CLE	v. CIN	+3	5%	$5.00


Totals:		Bets:		$96.92	Payout:	$0.00
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
8		6		W	L	P
57.14%		42.86%		0	0	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
4		10		0.00%
28.57%		71.43%		0.00%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		5		-100.00%
7.14%		35.71%		-100.00%

And moneyline:

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
CLE	v. CIN	+145	10%	$5.00
CHI	@ NYG	+175	10%	$5.00
ARI	@ SD	+320	10%	$5.00
NO	v. CAR	-680	10%	$5.00
IND	@ JAC	-360	10%	$5.00
ATL	v. SF	-270	10%	$5.00
PHI	v. WAS	-250	10%	$5.00
TEN	v. DEN	-250	10%	$5.00
HOU	@ OAK	-175	10%	$5.00
NYJ	@ BUF	-220	10%	$5.00






Totals:		Bets:		$50.00	Payout:	$0.00
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
7		3		W	L	P
70.00%		30.00%		0	0	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
5		5		0.00%
50.00%		50.00%		0.00%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		3		-100.00%
10.00%		30.00%		-100.00%

I'll just go on record: I hate this week's picks. Lots of favorites (which I'm not a fan of), almost no home dogs, lots of away teams... the worst of the worst of the worst. I'm expecting a huge down week. But I go where the stats take me. Sigh.

The power ranks seem to be working though. StL shoots up this week. Still have to test it's validity, but... fun?

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		2 - 0 - 0	68.75%
2	SEA	▲3	2 - 1 - 0
3	BAL	▼1	1 - 2 - 0
4	PIT	▲6	3 - 0 - 0
5	NYJ	▼2	2 - 1 - 0
6	CLE	▼2	1 - 1 - 1
7	STL	▲18	2 - 0 - 1
8	NE	▲8	1 - 2 - 0
9	CIN	▼3	2 - 1 - 0	43.75%
10	ATL	▼2	2 - 1 - 0
11	MIA	▼4	2 - 1 - 0
12	IND	▼3	2 - 1 - 0
13	SD	▼2	1 - 2 - 0
14	TB	▲16	0 - 0 - 1
15	NYG	▼3	1 - 2 - 0
16	NO	▼1	0 - 3 - 0
17	CHI	▲2	1 - 1 - 0
18	DAL	▲3	0 - 2 - 0
19	DEN	▼6	1 - 2 - 0
20	HOU		1 - 1 - 1
21	MIN	▼3	1 - 1 - 0
22	GB	▲1	1 - 1 - 0
23	PHI	▲6	2 - 1 - 0
24	TEN		2 - 1 - 0
25	WAS	▼8	1 - 1 - 1	31.25%
26	SF	▼12	1 - 2 - 0
27	DET	▲5	2 - 1 - 0
28	ARI	▼2	0 - 2 - 1
29	OAK	▼2	1 - 2 - 0
30	JAC	▼8	1 - 2 - 0
31	CAR		0 - 2 - 0
32	BUF	▼4	1 - 2 - 0

Week 03: Results

2010-09-28T21:08:00.001-04:00

Rock'n roll.

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
KC	v. SF	+2.5	7%	$5.78	W	$11.03
ATL	@ NO	+4	7%	$5.72	W	$10.92
NYJ	@ MIA	+1.5	7%	$5.67	W	$10.82
SEA	v. SD	+5.5	7%	$5.61	W	$10.71
TB	v. PIT	+2.5	7%	$5.56	L	$0.00
CIN	@ CAR	-3	7%	$5.50	W	$9.73
OAK	@ ARI	+4	7%	$5.44	W	$10.39
TEN	@ NYG	+3	7%	$5.39	W	$10.29
DET	@ MIN	+10.5	7%	$5.33	L	$0.00
STL	v. WAS	+3.5	7%	$5.28	W	$10.08
CLE	@ BAL	+10.5	6%	$5.22	W	$9.97
DEN	v. IND	+6	6%	$5.17	L	$0.00
DAL	@ HOU	+3	6%	$5.11	W	$9.37
PHI	@ JAC	-3	6%	$5.06	W	$10.11
NE	v. BUF	-14	6%	$5.00	L	$0.00

Totals:		Bets:		$80.83	Payout:	$113.42
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
3		12		W	L	P
20.00%		80.00%		11	4	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
6		9		73.33%
40.00%		60.00%		73.33%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
5		2		40.32%
33.33%		13.33%		40.32%

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
KC	v. SF	+120	7%	$5.00	W	$11.00
TB	v. PIT	+120	7%	$5.00	L	$0.00
DAL	@ HOU	+120	7%	$5.00	W	$11.00
TEN	@ NYG	+140	7%	$5.00	W	$12.00
ATL	@ NO	+175	7%	$5.00	W	$13.75
OAK	@ ARI	+175	7%	$5.00	L	$0.00
STL	v. WAS	+170	7%	$5.00	W	$13.50
SEA	v. SD	+210	7%	$5.00	W	$15.50
DET	@ MIN	+425	7%	$5.00	L	$0.00
CLE	@ BAL	+425	7%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NE	v. BUF	-900	7%	$5.00	W	$5.56
IND	@ DEN	-260	7%	$5.00	W	$6.92
CIN	@ CAR	-190	7%	$5.00	W	$7.63
PHI	@ JAC	-145	7%	$5.00	W	$8.45


Totals:		Bets:		$70.00	Payout:	$105.31
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
4		10		W	L	P
28.57%		71.43%		10	4	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
5		9		71.43%
35.71%		64.29%		71.43%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
4		3		50.44%
28.57%		21.43%		50.44%

Week 03: Historical retrospective

2010-09-24T11:51:00.002-04:00

Historical win percentages by pick rank back to 2006 under the current model for spread and moneyline bets - not the moneyline win percentages are misleading, since the model favors lower probability wins to high payout ratios rather than "straight up" winners. When gambling, the straight up favorites are usually the sucker's bet - who wants to lay a fiver to win 76 cents on a -650 high probability winner? In fact, the exact probability (according to Vegas) of a -650 covering is 81.59%. That's a whopping 19% chance that you WON'T win that 76 cents - you keep that bet up over time, and you're out 6 cents on every dollar you bet - not a lot, but enough to make it not worth it. (If you're interested, the math for this is simple - 80% of the time, you win 76 cents, and 20% of the time, you lose 5 dollars - so [.8 x .76] + [.2 x -5] = -.39 cents divided by 5 dollars = ~-7 cents per dollar).

Bearing that in mind, here you go - spread than money:

	SP Win %
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	ALL
1	50.00%	58.82%	52.94%	38.24%	50.00%	50.00%
2	79.41%	44.12%	67.65%	64.71%	50.00%	63.57%
3	35.29%	73.53%	73.53%	70.59%	50.00%	62.86%
4	64.71%	44.12%	79.41%	47.06%	100.00%	60.00%
5	64.71%	70.59%	61.76%	47.06%	50.00%	60.71%
6	47.06%	58.82%	52.94%	61.76%	50.00%	55.00%
7	58.82%	52.94%	55.88%	47.06%	75.00%	54.29%
8	70.59%	50.00%	70.59%	41.18%	0.00%	56.43%
9	47.06%	55.88%	55.88%	47.06%	100.00%	52.86%
10	58.82%	64.71%	47.06%	64.71%	25.00%	57.86%
11	44.12%	58.82%	52.94%	50.00%	50.00%	51.43%
12	35.29%	61.76%	41.18%	52.94%	0.00%	46.43%
13	82.35%	35.29%	61.76%	62.50%	50.00%	60.14%
14	46.67%	40.00%	75.00%	33.33%	100.00%	50.00%
15	50.00%	55.00%	44.44%	63.64%	0.00%	51.19%
16	30.00%	80.00%	16.67%	66.67%	50.00%	48.33%

and money:

	ML Win %
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	ALL
1		38.46%	35.29%	41.18%	50.00%	38.78%
2		53.85%	52.94%	41.18%	50.00%	48.98%
3		46.15%	41.18%	35.29%	0.00%	38.78%
4		38.46%	58.82%	58.82%	50.00%	53.06%
5		69.23%	58.82%	76.47%	50.00%	67.35%
6		69.23%	65.63%	82.35%	50.00%	71.88%
7		53.85%	62.50%	70.59%	50.00%	62.50%
8		84.62%	68.75%	76.47%	100.00%	77.08%
9		61.54%	81.25%	58.82%	50.00%	66.67%
10		84.62%	68.75%	94.12%	100.00%	83.33%
11		83.33%	73.33%	75.00%	50.00%	75.56%
12		54.55%	75.00%	76.92%	50.00%	68.42%
13		83.33%	57.14%	40.00%	100.00%	60.00%
14		100.00%	100.00%	44.44%	100.00%	68.75%
15		100.00%	50.00%	100.00%	100.00%	83.33%
16			50.00%	0.00%	0.00%	25.00%

Week 03: Altered power ranks, liking the bets this week

2010-09-22T11:22:00.000-04:00

First, the bets. Here are the spread picks:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	KC	v. SF	+2.5	7%	$5.78
2	ATL	@ NO	+4	7%	$5.72
3	NYJ	@ MIA	+1.5	7%	$5.67
4	SEA	v. SD	+5.5	7%	$5.61
5	TB	v. PIT	+2.5	7%	$5.56
6	CIN	@ CAR	-3	7%	$5.50
7	OAK	@ ARI	+4	7%	$5.44
8	TEN	@ NYG	+3	7%	$5.39
9	DET	@ MIN	+10.5	7%	$5.33
10	STL	v. WAS	+3.5	7%	$5.28
11	CLE	@ BAL	+10.5	6%	$5.22
12	DEN	v. IND	+6	6%	$5.17
13	DAL	@ HOU	+3	6%	$5.11
14	PHI	@ JAC	-3	6%	$5.06
15	NE	v. BUF	-14	6%	$5.00

And the moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	KC	v. SF	+120	7%	$5.00
2	TB	v. PIT	+120	7%	$5.00
3	DAL	@ HOU	+120	7%	$5.00
4	TEN	@ NYG	+140	7%	$5.00
5	ATL	@ NO	+175	7%	$5.00
6	OAK	@ ARI	+175	7%	$5.00
7	STL	v. WAS	+170	7%	$5.00
8	SEA	v. SD	+210	7%	$5.00
9	DET	@ MIN	+425	7%	$5.00
10	CLE	@ BAL	+425	7%	$5.00
11	NE	v. BUF	-900	7%	$5.00
12	IND	@ DEN	-260	7%	$5.00
13	CIN	@ CAR	-190	7%	$5.00
14	PHI	@ JAC	-145	7%	$5.00

Notice the new trend in the moneyline bets - I changed the formula, I'm now calculating it based on probabilities. It places more emphasis on high win potential games based on payout and probability. It's a tricky formula, maybe I'll go into it in a later post.

For now, I've altered the power rankings back to their original design of estimating team performance against the spread (rather than "who's the best team"). It now deviates substantially from my inspirational source of data, Football Outsiders. And it appears to work - over the last 4 years, the top quartile teams by week 17 had substantially improved ATS records over the rest of the teams. The motion in the teams is NOT effected by whether or not they covered in the previous week (or even whether they cover at all!), it's instead based on spread conviction and expected performance in games week to week. So it's a true predictive ranking rather than descriptive of past ATS records. Very cool.

Here it is:

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC	▲1	2 - 0 - 0	56.25%
2	BAL	▼1	1 - 1 - 0
3	NYJ	▲4	1 - 1 - 0
4	CLE	▲2	0 - 1 - 1
5	SEA		1 - 1 - 0
6	CIN	▼2	1 - 1 - 0
7	MIA	▲14	2 - 0 - 0
8	ATL	▲12	1 - 1 - 0
9	IND	▼6	1 - 1 - 0	46.88%
10	PIT	▲8	2 - 0 - 0
11	SD	▲2	1 - 1 - 0
12	NYG	▼1	1 - 1 - 0
13	DEN	▼5	1 - 1 - 0
14	SF	▲8	1 - 1 - 0
15	NO		0 - 2 - 0
16	NE	▼2	1 - 1 - 0
17	WAS	▼8	1 - 0 - 1
18	MIN	▼1	1 - 1 - 0
19	CHI	▲6	0 - 1 - 0
20	HOU	▼10	1 - 0 - 1
21	DAL	▲2	0 - 2 - 0
22	JAC	▼10	1 - 1 - 0
23	GB	▲3	0 - 1 - 0
24	TEN	▲3	1 - 1 - 0
25	STL	▼9	1 - 0 - 1	31.25%
26	ARI	▲3	0 - 1 - 1
27	OAK	▼8	0 - 2 - 0
28	BUF	▲4	0 - 2 - 0
29	PHI	▼5	1 - 1 - 0
30	TB	▼2	0 - 0 - 1
31	CAR		0 - 1 - 0
32	DET	▼2	2 - 0 - 0

Week 02: Results - Early losses, but not terrible

2010-09-21T23:18:00.002-04:00

This new strategy of betting every game is definitely decreasing volatility - this would have been a a harsh week. Here are the results. Directly to follow are the Week 03 bets - in very early!

Spread results:

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
KC	@ CLE	+1.5	8%	$6.79	W	$12.96
BAL	@ CIN	-1.5	8%	$6.66	L	$0.00
SEA	@ DEN	+3.5	7%	$6.53	L	$0.00
STL	@ OAK	+3.5	7%	$6.40	W	$12.23
NYG	@ IND	+5	7%	$6.28	L	$0.00
JAC	@ SD	+7	7%	$6.15	L	$0.00
HOU	@ WAS	-3	7%	$6.02	P	$6.02
NE	@ NYJ	-3	7%	$5.89	L	$0.00
MIA	@ MIN	+5.5	7%	$5.77	W	$11.01
NO	@ SF	-5.5	6%	$5.64	L	$0.00
CHI	@ DAL	+7.5	6%	$5.51	W	$10.52
TEN	v. PIT	-5	6%	$5.38	L	$0.00
ARI	@ ATL	+6.5	6%	$5.25	L	$0.00
DET	v. PHI	+6	6%	$5.13	W	$9.79
BUF	@ GB	+13.5	6%	$5.00	L	$0.00

Totals:		Bets:		$88.41	Payout:	$62.53
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
5		10		W	L	P
33.33%		66.67%		5	9	1
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
2		13		33.33%
13.33%		86.67%		33.33%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		4		-29.28%
6.67%		26.67%		-29.28%

And the moneyline:

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
SEA	@ DEN	+165	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
STL	@ OAK	+165	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NYG	@ IND	+200	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
MIA	@ MIN	+210	8%	$5.00	W	$15.50
DET	v. PHI	+220	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
JAC	@ SD	+260	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
ARI	@ ATL	+250	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
CHI	@ DAL	+300	8%	$5.00	W	$20.00
GB	v. BUF	-650	8%	$5.00	W	$5.77
NO	@ SF	-250	8%	$5.00	W	$7.00
TEN	v. PIT	-230	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NE	@ NYJ	-150	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
HOU	@ WAS	-145	8%	$5.00	W	$8.45



Totals:		Bets:		$65.00	Payout:	$56.72
Totals:
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
5		8		W	L	P
38.46%		61.54%		5	8	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
3		10		38.46%
23.08%		76.92%		38.46%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		3		-12.74%
7.69%		23.08%		-12.74%

Week 02: Banged out the bets early

2010-09-16T00:45:00.002-04:00

Week 2 and the fun begins. Early this year. I'm now betting every game, low amounts. Removed volatility, increased returns. I prefer low volatility (I fear change).

Here are the week 2 best bets and rankings:

Spread:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	KC	@ CLE	+1.5	8%	$6.79	W	$0.00
2	BAL	@ CIN	-1.5	8%	$6.66	L	$0.00
3	SEA	@ DEN	+3.5	7%	$6.53	W	$0.00
4	STL	@ OAK	+3.5	7%	$6.40	W	$0.00
5	NYG	@ IND	+5	7%	$6.28	W	$0.00
6	JAC	@ SD	+7	7%	$6.15	W	$0.00
7	HOU	@ WAS	-3	7%	$6.02	L	$0.00
8	NE	@ NYJ	-3	7%	$5.89	L	$0.00
9	MIA	@ MIN	+5.5	7%	$5.77	W	$0.00
10	NO	@ SF	-5.5	6%	$5.64	L	$0.00
11	CHI	@ DAL	+7.5	6%	$5.51	W	$0.00
12	TEN	v. PIT	-5	6%	$5.38	L	$0.00
13	ARI	@ ATL	+6.5	6%	$5.25	W	$0.00
14	DET	v. PHI	+6	6%	$5.13	W	$0.00
15	BUF	@ GB	+13.5	6%	$5.00	W	$0.00

	Totals:		Bets:		$88.41	Payout:	$0.00
	Totals:
	Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
	5		10		W	L	P
	33.33%		66.67%		10	5	0
	Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
	2		13		66.67%
	13.33%		86.67%		66.67%
	Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
	1		4		-100.00%
	6.67%		26.67%		-100.00%

Moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	SEA	@ DEN	+165	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
2	STL	@ OAK	+165	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
3	NYG	@ IND	+200	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
4	MIA	@ MIN	+210	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
5	DET	v. PHI	+220	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
6	JAC	@ SD	+260	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
7	ARI	@ ATL	+250	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
8	CHI	@ DAL	+300	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
9	GB	v. BUF	-650	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
10	NO	@ SF	-250	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
11	TEN	v. PIT	-230	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
12	NE	@ NYJ	-150	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
13	HOU	@ WAS	-145	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00



	Totals:		Bets:		$65.00	Payout:	$0.00
	Totals:
	Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
	5		8		W	L	P
	38.46%		61.54%		0	0	13
	Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
	3		10		0.00%
	23.08%		76.92%		0.00%
	Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
	1		3		-100.00%
	7.69%		23.08%		-100.00%

And the rankings (courtesy of Football Outsiders until next week's numbers kick in - week 3 is the first week with any sort of modicum of sample size):

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS
1	BAL		1 - 0 - 0
2	PIT		1 - 0 - 0
3	NE		1 - 0 - 0
4	GB	▲2	0 - 1 - 0
5	ATL		0 - 1 - 0
6	CHI	▲2	0 - 1 - 0
7	IND	▼3	0 - 1 - 0
8	MIA	▲2	1 - 0 - 0
9	NYG	▲5	1 - 0 - 0
10	PHI	▼3	1 - 0 - 0
11	NO	▲2	0 - 1 - 0
12	NYJ	▼1	0 - 1 - 0
13	MIN	▼4	1 - 0 - 0
14	WAS	▼2	1 - 0 - 0
15	DAL		0 - 1 - 0
16	KC		1 - 0 - 0
17	SEA	▲4	1 - 0 - 0
18	TEN	▲4	1 - 0 - 0
19	ARI	▼1	0 - 0 - 1
20	JAC	▲5	1 - 0 - 0
21	CIN	▼4	0 - 1 - 0
22	DEN	▼2	0 - 1 - 0
23	SD	▼4	0 - 1 - 0
24	TB	▲2
25	BUF	▼1	0 - 1 - 0
26	CAR	▼3
27	HOU		1 - 0 - 0
28	CLE	▲1	0 - 0 - 1
29	STL	▲1	0 - 0 - 1
30	SF	▼2	0 - 1 - 0
31	DET	▲1	1 - 0 - 0
32	OAK	▼1	0 - 1 - 0