I decided on:
- cin (-6) over CLE
- dal (-145) over DEN,
- dal (-3) over DEN (zero juice!);
I wanted to stay pretty safe by picking against the Browns, who are just in turmoil. As for Denver... I just don't think they are a real 3-0 team, and I think Dallas' running game is going to expose them. Watching the highlights of the Dallas v Giants game shows you how good the Cowboys can be, and I don't see anything like that in the Broncos.
Jerry Jones, I still hate you.
Edit: After reading up some more, I couldn't resist my first teaser of the year...
HOU (-2.5) over oak -- nyg (-3) over KC -- NO (-1) over nyj -- sd (+12.5) over PIT
Houston should have no problem beating Oakland by 3, same goes for the Giants over KC. I've given SD a 12 point cushion against an ailing Steelers team. That leaves the Saints, who are at home against the Jets. The Jets haven't had to keep up with a good offense yet, and I think the Saints are going to force their hand. Sanchez has looked good so far because he hasn't had to score a lot of points yet. This week we'll see some interceptions leading to a Saints victory.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Week 4 - Talkin' Football
Since I haven't really had a chance to look at the games this week, I'm going to do some stream of consciousness analysis here to come to my picks of the week:
1. oak(+9) @ HOU: I was wrong about Houston last week, good thing I avoided betting on them. Despite giving 9 points, this might be a great bet, though. Oakland has shown zero potential to do anything but get their butt kicked, and since they let Garcia go, they are stuck with JaMarcus for the season. Definite blowout potential.
2. TN (-3) @ JAX - JAX has the better record, but have been hard to read. TN should be better... but haven't. Do they turn it around this week? Hell if I know. Pressed I would take TN to win, but I don't like giving points on this game.
3. bal (+1.5) @ NE: Baltimore's #1 in the power rankings and they're still the 'dogs. I'm as confused as Vegas, though. The Ravens have looked damn impressive... against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Browns. The Chargers win seems impressive, but this is the Chargers without LT, and without nose tackle Jamaal Williams. Flacco should have been intercepted a couple times but got lucky. Rivers shouldn't have been intercepted and got unlucky. Lastly, the game was decided by some O-Linemen forgetting to block Ray Lewis on 4th down... Meanwhile, the Pats dig deep and beat Buffalo in the closing seconds, lose to 3-0 NYJ, then beat NFC favorites ATL. I won't actually bet on this game, but I really think NE pulls this off.
4. nyg (-9) @ KC: This is similar to the Hou vs Oak game to me, only better 'cause the Giants are consistently good. KC is clearly rebuilding and will not be able to keep up with the Giants. I see several turnovers and Ahmad Bradshaw in our future. Giants in a blowout.
5. TB (+7.5) @ WAS: WAS by 7.5? Really? It's such a shame Tampa is too bad to take a chance on. Who is their QB anyways?
6. sea (+10.5) @ IND: Looks like we get another week of Seneca Wallace. I think Indy pulls this off and covers their large spread, but I'm not feeling gutsy enough to bet on this one.
7. cin (-6) @ CLE: This one is interesting and definitely has potential as my pick of the week. CIN has quietly beaten the Packers and Steelers, and would be 3-0 if not for a fluke tipped ball in Week 1 against 3-0 Denver. Oh, and pay attention to Cedric Benson. Though he washed out in Chicago, he looks good in Orange & Black. CLE has been notably horrible, and they just switched QBs again. CLE basically has zero at the skill positions, I don't see them keeping up.
8. det (+10) @ CHI: I'd really like to pick DET with their 10-point cushion, but I just can't. This is a Moneyline lock, but the payout is so low it's probably not worth it (-475).
9. NYJ (+7) @ NO: Any other 3-0 teams getting a touchdown this week? This game is loaded with unpredictability. The Jets D has looked very good, and they could cause enough havoc to win this game. Then again, if it becomes a shootout no way Sanchez keeps pace with Brees.
10. Buf (-1.5) @ MIA: I am very tempted to go with Buffalo here. I don't think we can trust Chad Henne, and Buffalo has played some tough games. Still... the injuy bug has hit Buffalo pretty hard (again), so I'm not that confident.
11. STL (+9.5) @ SF: What happened to the Rams? I don't know what to think of this game, definitely staying away.
12. Dal (-3) @ DEN: Denver is 3-0, but they haven't beaten anyone of consequence yet. I like Dallas to give them their first loss, and to cover the 3 points. Did you see the Cowboy running game against the Giants? Denver is going to get pushed around.
13. SD (+6.5) @ PIT: upset watch! The Steelers seem to be suffering from a little Superbowl hangover, Poloamu is out and the Chargers have looked pretty explosive. I'll take SD with the points, and maybe to win outright, even.
14. GB (+3.5) @ MIN: I am so glad I don't have televison so I won't be able to watch every pre- game show talk about "Favre-Bowl" endlessly. MIN is clearly the better team so far this year, though. Peterson is really something, and I don't think GB has an answer.
1. oak(+9) @ HOU: I was wrong about Houston last week, good thing I avoided betting on them. Despite giving 9 points, this might be a great bet, though. Oakland has shown zero potential to do anything but get their butt kicked, and since they let Garcia go, they are stuck with JaMarcus for the season. Definite blowout potential.
2. TN (-3) @ JAX - JAX has the better record, but have been hard to read. TN should be better... but haven't. Do they turn it around this week? Hell if I know. Pressed I would take TN to win, but I don't like giving points on this game.
3. bal (+1.5) @ NE: Baltimore's #1 in the power rankings and they're still the 'dogs. I'm as confused as Vegas, though. The Ravens have looked damn impressive... against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Browns. The Chargers win seems impressive, but this is the Chargers without LT, and without nose tackle Jamaal Williams. Flacco should have been intercepted a couple times but got lucky. Rivers shouldn't have been intercepted and got unlucky. Lastly, the game was decided by some O-Linemen forgetting to block Ray Lewis on 4th down... Meanwhile, the Pats dig deep and beat Buffalo in the closing seconds, lose to 3-0 NYJ, then beat NFC favorites ATL. I won't actually bet on this game, but I really think NE pulls this off.
4. nyg (-9) @ KC: This is similar to the Hou vs Oak game to me, only better 'cause the Giants are consistently good. KC is clearly rebuilding and will not be able to keep up with the Giants. I see several turnovers and Ahmad Bradshaw in our future. Giants in a blowout.
5. TB (+7.5) @ WAS: WAS by 7.5? Really? It's such a shame Tampa is too bad to take a chance on. Who is their QB anyways?
6. sea (+10.5) @ IND: Looks like we get another week of Seneca Wallace. I think Indy pulls this off and covers their large spread, but I'm not feeling gutsy enough to bet on this one.
7. cin (-6) @ CLE: This one is interesting and definitely has potential as my pick of the week. CIN has quietly beaten the Packers and Steelers, and would be 3-0 if not for a fluke tipped ball in Week 1 against 3-0 Denver. Oh, and pay attention to Cedric Benson. Though he washed out in Chicago, he looks good in Orange & Black. CLE has been notably horrible, and they just switched QBs again. CLE basically has zero at the skill positions, I don't see them keeping up.
8. det (+10) @ CHI: I'd really like to pick DET with their 10-point cushion, but I just can't. This is a Moneyline lock, but the payout is so low it's probably not worth it (-475).
9. NYJ (+7) @ NO: Any other 3-0 teams getting a touchdown this week? This game is loaded with unpredictability. The Jets D has looked very good, and they could cause enough havoc to win this game. Then again, if it becomes a shootout no way Sanchez keeps pace with Brees.
10. Buf (-1.5) @ MIA: I am very tempted to go with Buffalo here. I don't think we can trust Chad Henne, and Buffalo has played some tough games. Still... the injuy bug has hit Buffalo pretty hard (again), so I'm not that confident.
11. STL (+9.5) @ SF: What happened to the Rams? I don't know what to think of this game, definitely staying away.
12. Dal (-3) @ DEN: Denver is 3-0, but they haven't beaten anyone of consequence yet. I like Dallas to give them their first loss, and to cover the 3 points. Did you see the Cowboy running game against the Giants? Denver is going to get pushed around.
13. SD (+6.5) @ PIT: upset watch! The Steelers seem to be suffering from a little Superbowl hangover, Poloamu is out and the Chargers have looked pretty explosive. I'll take SD with the points, and maybe to win outright, even.
14. GB (+3.5) @ MIN: I am so glad I don't have televison so I won't be able to watch every pre- game show talk about "Favre-Bowl" endlessly. MIN is clearly the better team so far this year, though. Peterson is really something, and I don't think GB has an answer.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Week 04: Rankings showing some love at last
The rankings are coming in line as the weeks go by - by week 5, I should be enjoying rankings that mean something.
A new feature:
JAC, SEA, and WAS are mysteries to me. JAC is not top 5 in my mind, though they have tangled with IND, ARI, and HOU - all quality teams. SEA has been hit by CHI and SF, teams on the rise, and they beat up STL as they should have. But WAS? What the fuck? WAS was beat by DET, played STL close, and got beat up by NYG... they're not even contenders, but they're still in the top 12. Sounds suspect. We shall see.
| Power Ranks | ▲▼ | %FromTop | W/L/T | ATS | |
| 1 | NYG | 0% | 3 - 0 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 | |
| 2 | MIN | 16% | 3 - 0 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 | |
| 3 | BAL | ▲5 | 25% | 3 - 0 - 0 | 3 - 0 - 0 |
| 4 | JAC | ▲3 | 28% | 1 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 5 | NO | ▲4 | 33% | 3 - 0 - 0 | 3 - 0 - 0 |
| 6 | DAL | ▼3 | 40% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 7 | DEN | ▲15 | 42% | 3 - 0 - 0 | 3 - 0 - 0 |
| 8 | IND | ▼4 | 43% | OFF | OFF |
| 9 | GB | ▲8 | 45% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 10 | NYJ | ▲11 | 53% | 3 - 0 - 0 | 3 - 0 - 0 |
| 11 | SEA | ▼1 | 54% | OFF | OFF |
| 12 | WAS | ▼6 | 57% | 1 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 13 | PIT | ▼8 | 57% | 1 - 2 - 0 | 0 - 3 - 0 |
| 14 | ATL | ▼1 | 58% | OFF | OFF |
| 15 | NE | ▲13 | 58% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 16 | CAR | ▲3 | 60% | OFF | OFF |
| 17 | CIN | ▲1 | 60% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 18 | HOU | ▲11 | 61% | 1 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 19 | BUF | ▲12 | 61% | 1 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 20 | ARI | ▲3 | 62% | OFF | OFF |
| 21 | SD | ▼10 | 64% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 22 | CHI | ▼7 | 64% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 23 | KC | ▲9 | 64% | 0 - 2 - 0 | 0 - 2 - 0 |
| 24 | TEN | ▲1 | 64% | 0 - 3 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 25 | SF | ▲1 | 64% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 3 - 0 - 0 |
| 26 | MIA | ▲1 | 66% | 0 - 3 - 0 | 0 - 3 - 0 |
| 27 | OAK | ▼3 | 67% | 1 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 28 | TB | ▼8 | 68% | 0 - 3 - 0 | 0 - 3 - 0 |
| 29 | PHI | ▲1 | 70% | OFF | OFF |
| 30 | STL | ▼16 | 71% | 0 - 3 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 31 | DET | ▼15 | 74% | 1 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 32 | CLE | ▼20 | 77% | 0 - 3 - 0 | 0 - 3 - 0 |
| * Excludes BYE week teams! | |||||
A new feature:
| Rank | Top Movers | Move & Dir |
| 1 | CLE | D20 |
| 2 | STL | D16 |
| 3 | DEN | U15 |
| 4 | DET | D15 |
| 5 | NE | U13 |
JAC, SEA, and WAS are mysteries to me. JAC is not top 5 in my mind, though they have tangled with IND, ARI, and HOU - all quality teams. SEA has been hit by CHI and SF, teams on the rise, and they beat up STL as they should have. But WAS? What the fuck? WAS was beat by DET, played STL close, and got beat up by NYG... they're not even contenders, but they're still in the top 12. Sounds suspect. We shall see.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Week 04: Capper counts his chickens
Week 3.
I'll wait for my gloating when the sample size is larger like a true stat geek.
Cap, your comeuppance will (might? hopefully?) come.
I'll wait for my gloating when the sample size is larger like a true stat geek.
Cap, your comeuppance will (might? hopefully?) come.
Week 03: Ouch
I mean ouch.
I got killed. Still in the game, it's a long season. But got killed.
Never thought I'd say it, but I'm genuflecting on the Moneyline:
The overall damage:
Could have been worse. I could have been stabbed.
I got killed. Still in the game, it's a long season. But got killed.
| Rank | Pick | Vs | Spd | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | OAK | v. DEN | +1.5 | 24% | $32.75 | L | $0.00 |
| 2 | SEA | v. CHI | +2 | 19% | $27.47 | L | $0.00 |
| 3 | JAC | @ HOU | +3.5 | 8% | $14.63 | W | $28.56 |
| 4 | BUF | v. NO | +6 | 7% | $13.15 | L | $0.00 |
| 5 | MIN | v. SF | -6.5 | 7% | $13.08 | L | $0.00 |
| 6 | STL | v. GB | +6.5 | 7% | $13.00 | L | $0.00 |
| 7 | IND | @ ARI | +2.5 | 7% | $12.83 | W | $25.04 |
| 8 | TB | v. NYG | +6.5 | 7% | $12.58 | L | $0.00 |
| 9 | DET | v. WAS | +6.5 | 6% | $12.14 | W | $23.70 |
| 10 | CAR | @ DAL | +8.5 | 4% | $10.07 | L | $0.00 |
| 11 | CLE | @ BAL | +13 | 4% | $9.22 | L | $0.00 |
| 12 | SD | v. MIA | -5.5 | W | |||
| 13 | NE | v. ATL | -4 | W | |||
| 14 | PIT | @ CIN | -4 | L | |||
| 15 | TEN | @ NYJ | +3 | L | |||
| Totals: | Bets: | $170.91 | Payout: | $77.30 | |||
| Week Return: | -54.77% | ||||||
Never thought I'd say it, but I'm genuflecting on the Moneyline:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | ML | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | IND | @ ARI | +125 | 46% | $9.58 | W | $21.56 |
| 2 | JAC | @ HOU | +165 | 31% | $8.13 | W | $21.56 |
| 3 | TEN | @ NYJ | +130 | 20% | $7.05 | L | $0.00 |
| 4 | SEA | v. CHI | +110 | 2% | $5.24 | L | $0.00 |
| 5 | BAL | v. CLE | -700 | W | |||
| 6 | MIN | v. SF | -280 | W | |||
| 7 | SD | v. MIA | -270 | W | |||
| 8 | NYG | @ TB | -290 | W | |||
| 9 | NO | @ BUF | -270 | W | |||
| 10 | WAS | @ DET | -270 | L | |||
| 11 | NE | v. ATL | -210 | W | |||
| 12 | DAL | v. CAR | -380 | W | |||
| 13 | PIT | @ CIN | -200 | L | |||
| 14 | GB | @ STL | -275 | W | |||
| 15 | |||||||
| Totals: | Bets: | $30.00 | Payout: | $43.11 | |||
| Week Return: | 43.71% | ||||||
The overall damage:
| Start Value | |
| $341.83 | |
| $s Added | $s Withdrawn |
| $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Bets Placed | |
| $200.91 | |
| Bet Income | |
| -$80.50 | |
| Ending Value | |
| $261.32 | |
| Total Return | |
| -23.55% | |
Could have been worse. I could have been stabbed.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Week 3 - Results just plain peachy
I'm not sure why they had to give me a heart attack, but Da Bears pulled it out at the end like I predicted, netting me another $20 this weekend on $24 wagered.
Just because this has happened so rarely over the past 3 seasons, I'm going to gloat... Mattyboy, I kicked the box's ass this weekend. Went 3 for 4 on my games of the week, all against the box.
Take that.
Just because this has happened so rarely over the past 3 seasons, I'm going to gloat... Mattyboy, I kicked the box's ass this weekend. Went 3 for 4 on my games of the week, all against the box.
Take that.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Week 3 2009 - Final Bets
So I'm putting my money where my keyboard is... all-in with CHI over SEA. I split the bet in half again.... 1/2 on the moneyline (-130) and 1/2 on the spread (-2).
Quickie confession: I didn't really go all-in... I am betting 1/2 my bank so I'll have something left in the tank should the unthinkable happen.
Da Bears.
Quickie confession: I didn't really go all-in... I am betting 1/2 my bank so I'll have something left in the tank should the unthinkable happen.
Da Bears.
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