Week 13: Will the terrible streak continue?

Honestly.

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt
CLE	@ MIA	+4.5	7.56%	$5.61
ATL	@ TB	-3	7.49%	$5.56
PIT	@ BAL	+3	7.44%	$5.52
ARI	v. STL	+3	7.37%	$5.47
BUF	@ MIN	+6	7.30%	$5.42
HOU	@ PHI	+8.5	7.23%	$5.37
WAS	@ NYG	+7	7.18%	$5.33
SEA	v. CAR	-6	7.11%	$5.28
NYJ	@ NE	+3.5	7.04%	$5.23
KC	v. DEN	-9	6.98%	$5.18
IND	v. DAL	-5.5	6.92%	$5.14
CIN	v. NO	+7	6.86%	$5.09
OAK	@ SD	+13	6.79%	$5.04
GB	v. SF	-10	6.73%	$5.00
Totals:		Bets:		$74.24

PIT	@ BAL	+130	7.14%	$5.00
ARI	v. STL	+145	7.14%	$5.00
CLE	@ MIA	+180	7.14%	$5.00
NYJ	@ NE	+160	7.14%	$5.00
BUF	@ MIN	+220	7.14%	$5.00
SD	v. OAK	-600	7.14%	$5.00
GB	v. SF	-470	7.14%	$5.00
KC	v. DEN	-460	7.14%	$5.00
PHI	v. HOU	-390	7.14%	$5.00
NO	@ CIN	-300	7.14%	$5.00
NYG	v. WAS	-320	7.14%	$5.00
SEA	v. CAR	-250	7.14%	$5.00
IND	v. DAL	-240	7.14%	$5.00
ATL	@ TB	-145	7.14%	$5.00
Totals:		Bets:		$70.00

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		6 - 3 - 1	56.04%
2	BAL	▲1	5 - 5 - 1
3	PIT	▼1	7 - 4 - 0
4	NE	▲3	5 - 3 - 2
5	CLE	▼1	4 - 5 - 1
6	NYJ	▼1	7 - 4 - 0
7	MIA	▼1	5 - 4 - 0
8	NYG	▲1	5 - 6 - 0
9	SF	▼1	5 - 6 - 0	53.43%
10	HOU	▲2	3 - 6 - 1
11	ATL	▲2	7 - 4 - 0
12	JAC	▲3	6 - 3 - 0
13	SEA	▼3	5 - 6 - 0
14	DEN		3 - 7 - 0
15	PHI	▼4	6 - 5 - 0
16	SD		6 - 5 - 0
17	STL	▲1	8 - 2 - 1
18	IND	▼1	5 - 4 - 2
19	CIN		3 - 8 - 0
20	TEN		5 - 4 - 0
21	CHI		4 - 4 - 1
22	TB	▲3	6 - 3 - 1
23	BUF	▲4	5 - 5 - 1
24	DET		8 - 2 - 0
25	OAK	▼3	3 - 5 - 1	37.89%
26	NO	▲2	3 - 7 - 0
27	MIN	▲2	4 - 6 - 0
28	GB	▼5	5 - 4 - 0
29	WAS	▼3	5 - 4 - 2
30	DAL		4 - 7 - 0
31	ARI		2 - 8 - 1
32	CAR		2 - 6 - 0

Week 12: I am terrible

Forget units. You can just watch me lose.

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
PHI	@ CHI	-3	9.79%	$8.74	L	$0.00
SEA	v. KC	+1	9.44%	$8.43	L	$0.00
IND	v. SD	-3	9.09%	$8.12	L	$0.00
PIT	@ BUF	-6.5	8.74%	$7.80	L	$0.00
DET	v. NE	+7	8.39%	$7.49	L	$0.00
MIN	@ WAS	+2.5	8.04%	$7.18	W	$13.71
JAC	@ NYG	+7.5	7.69%	$6.87	W	$12.60
CIN	@ NYJ	+9	7.34%	$6.55	L	$0.00
ARI	v. SF	+1	6.99%	$6.24	L	$0.00
NO	@ DAL	-3.5	6.64%	$5.93	L	$0.00
DEN	v. STL	-4	6.29%	$5.62	L	$0.00
GB	@ ATL	+2	5.95%	$5.31	L	$0.00
BAL	v. TB	-7.5	5.60%	$5.00	L	$0.00
Totals:		Bets:		$89.28	Payout:	$26.30
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
6		7		W	L	P
46.15%		53.85%		2	11	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
6		7		15.38%
46.15%		53.85%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
3		3		-70.54%
23.08%		23.08%

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
GB	@ ATL	+110	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
MIN	@ WAS	+120	9.09%	$5.00	W	$11.00
DET	v. NE	+250	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
JAC	@ NYG	+270	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NYJ	v. CIN	-400	9.09%	$5.00	W	$6.25
BAL	v. TB	-330	9.09%	$5.00	W	$6.52
PIT	@ BUF	-270	9.09%	$5.00	W	$6.85
PHI	@ CHI	-175	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NO	@ DAL	-190	9.09%	$5.00	W	$7.63
DEN	v. STL	-210	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
IND	v. SD	-165	9.09%	$5.00	L	$0.00
Totals:		Bets:		$55.00	Payout:	$38.25
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
7		4		W	L	P
63.64%		36.36%		5	6	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
5		6		45.45%
45.45%		54.55%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		3		-30.46%
9.09%		27.27%

Summary
Week 11 2010	$318.03
Week 12 2010	$238.30
Return:	-25.07%
2010 Season Start:	$288.05
Week 12 2010	$238.30
Return:	-17.27%
2010 Record:	78 - 80 - 8
2010 Win %:	50.62%

Week 12: Falling Behind

But seriously, be glad. My mean regression continues. Up only 10% on the year now, down from nearly 80%.

I'll spare you the bets, we'll just move to week 12, shall me? Gonna need some luck this week, maybe I can get a bounce (yes, the miracle in JAC did not help me... and yes, the Chansi Stuckey fumble in OT followed by about 30 missed tackles did not help me... and yes, every bounce in the last two weeks have gone against me... but at least the Pats are winning!).

1	PHI	@ CHI	-3	1.75
2	SEA	v. KC	+1	1.69
3	IND	v. SD	-3	1.62
4	PIT	@ BUF	-6.5	1.56
5	DET	v. NE	+7	1.50
6	MIN	@ WAS	+2.5	1.44
7	JAC	@ NYG	+7.5	1.37
8	CIN	@ NYJ	+9	1.31
9	ARI	v. SF	+1	1.25
10	NO	@ DAL	-3.5	1.19
11	DEN	v. STL	-4	1.12
12	GB	@ ATL	+2	1.06
13	BAL	v. TB	-7.5	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	17.86	Payout:	0.00

1	GB	@ ATL	+110	1.00
2	MIN	@ WAS	+120	1.00
3	DET	v. NE	+250	1.00
4	JAC	@ NYG	+270	1.00
5	NYJ	v. CIN	-400	1.00
6	BAL	v. TB	-330	1.00
7	PIT	@ BUF	-270	1.00
8	PHI	@ CHI	-175	1.00
9	NO	@ DAL	-190	1.00
10	DEN	v. STL	-210	1.00
11	IND	v. SD	-165	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	11.00	Payout:	0.00

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		5 - 3 - 1	56.77%
2	PIT		7 - 3 - 0
3	BAL		5 - 4 - 1
4	CLE		4 - 4 - 1
5	NYJ	▲2	6 - 4 - 0
6	MIA		5 - 3 - 0
7	NE	▲4	4 - 3 - 2
8	SF	▼3	4 - 6 - 0
9	NYG		5 - 5 - 0	53.41%
10	SEA		5 - 5 - 0
11	PHI	▲4	6 - 4 - 0
12	HOU	▲1	2 - 6 - 1
13	ATL	▲1	6 - 4 - 0
14	DEN	▼6	3 - 6 - 0
15	JAC	▼3	6 - 3 - 0
16	SD		5 - 5 - 0
17	IND	▲1	5 - 3 - 2
18	STL	▲1	7 - 2 - 1
19	CIN	▼2	3 - 7 - 0
20	TEN		5 - 4 - 0
21	CHI	▲3	4 - 4 - 1
22	OAK	▲1	3 - 4 - 1
23	GB	▲5	5 - 3 - 0
24	DET	▼3	8 - 2 - 0
25	TB		5 - 3 - 1	39.54%
26	WAS	▼4	5 - 3 - 2
27	BUF	▲3	4 - 5 - 1
28	NO	▼1	3 - 6 - 0
29	MIN		3 - 6 - 0
30	DAL	▼4	3 - 7 - 0
31	ARI		2 - 7 - 1
32	CAR		2 - 5 - 0

Week 10: Line moves

HOME	LINE	Delt	Toward	TUES	LINE
ARI	-3			ARI	-3
BUF	-1.5	1.5	DET	ATL	-1
CHI	1.5	-0.5	MIN	BUF	-3
CLE	3			CHI	1
DEN	1			CLE	3
IND	-7			DEN	1
JAC	-1	0.5	HOU	IND	-7
MIA	1			JAC	-1.5
NYG	-13.5	0.5	DAL	MIA	1
PIT	-4.5			NYG	-14
SF	-5.5	0.5	STL	PIT	-4.5
TB	-7	-0.5	TB	SF	-6
WAS	3			TB	-6.5
				WAS	3

Week 10: The Thursday games already?

I like and hate this week. A lot of trap game feels.

KC	@ DEN	-1	2.16
HOU	@ JAC	+1.5	2.07
TEN	@ MIA	-2	1.98
DET	@ BUF	+3	1.89
ATL	v. BAL	-1	1.80
CLE	v. NYJ	+3	1.71
PHI	@ WAS	-3	1.62
NE	@ PIT	+4.5	1.54
MIN	@ CHI	-1.5	1.45
DAL	@ NYG	+14	1.36
SF	v. STL	-6	1.27
CAR	@ TB	+6.5	1.18
IND	v. CIN	-7	1.09
SEA	@ ARI	+3	1.00
Totals:		Bets:	22.12	Payout:	0.00

DET	@ BUF	+120	1.00
NE	@ PIT	+190	1.00
CLE	v. NYJ	+155	1.00
SEA	@ ARI	+155	1.00
NYG	v. DAL	-700	1.00
IND	v. CIN	-340	1.00
TB	v. CAR	-270	1.00
SF	v. STL	-260	1.00
PHI	@ WAS	-170	1.00
TEN	@ MIA	-130	1.00
Totals:		Bets:	10.00	Payout:	0.00

HOU has the feeling of a trap game.

So does TEN. MIA as a home dog is tough to bet against. Big money already came in on TEN, too - opened at TEN -1.

KC feels like a trap, DEN needs a win.

And then the NYJ looks like the anti trap - CLE is getting less for shelling my Pats last week, but that was more an anomaly than a new reality I think. NE has a weak D, if CLE can move the ball with Hillis more than 25 yds the whole game I'll be impressed.

And the rankings - tons of motion, still worthless.

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		4 - 2 - 1	57.37%
2	PIT	▲1	6 - 2 - 0
3	BAL	▼1	4 - 3 - 1
4	NYG	▲2	5 - 3 - 0
5	NYJ	▲4	5 - 3 - 0
6	MIA	▲2	4 - 3 - 0
7	SF		4 - 4 - 0
8	HOU	▲3	2 - 5 - 1
9	CLE	▲5	4 - 3 - 1	53.29%
10	ATL	▲5	4 - 4 - 0
11	SEA	▼7	4 - 4 - 0
12	NE	▼7	3 - 3 - 1
13	DEN	▲6	2 - 5 - 0
14	PHI	▼2	4 - 4 - 0
15	SD	▼2	3 - 5 - 0
16	TEN	▲5	5 - 3 - 0
17	CIN	▼1	2 - 6 - 0
18	STL	▼8	6 - 1 - 1
19	IND	▼1	5 - 2 - 1
20	JAC	▲2	4 - 3 - 0
21	DET	▲5	7 - 1 - 0
22	OAK	▼2	3 - 4 - 0
23	MIN	▼6	3 - 4 - 0
24	WAS	▼1	4 - 2 - 2
25	BUF	▲5	3 - 4 - 1	33.85%
26	NO	▲1	1 - 6 - 0
27	GB	▲1	3 - 3 - 0
28	CHI	▼4	2 - 4 - 1
29	TB		3 - 3 - 1
30	DAL	▼5	1 - 7 - 0
31	CAR		2 - 4 - 0
32	ARI		2 - 5 - 1

Week 09: Results

This week was what we call a "regression to the mean".

Balls.

1	KC	@ OAK	+3	2.62	P	2.62
2	SEA	v. NYG	+6	2.47	L	0.00
3	DET	v. NYJ	+4	2.32	W	4.43
4	PIT	@ CIN	-4.5	2.17	W	4.15
5	MIA	@ BAL	+5	2.03	L	0.00
6	CHI	@ BUF	-3	1.88	P	1.88
7	HOU	v. SD	+2.5	1.73	L	0.00
8	NE	@ CLE	-5	1.59	L	0.00
9	ATL	v. TB	-8	1.44	L	0.00
10	PHI	v. IND	-3	1.29	L	0.00
11	MIN	v. ARI	-9	1.15	L	0.00
12	DAL	@ GB	+8	1.00	L	0.00
	Totals:		Bets:	21.68	Payout:	13.08
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				2	8	2
	Week Win Percent:
	16.67%
	Bet Win Percent:
	-39.69%

1	HOU	v. SD	+120	1.00	L	0.00
2	KC	@ OAK	+125	1.00	L	0.00
3	DET	v. NYJ	+180	1.00	L	0.00
4	MIA	@ BAL	+190	1.00	L	0.00
5	SEA	v. NYG	+230	1.00	L	0.00
6	ATL	v. TB	-400	1.00	W	1.25
7	MIN	v. ARI	-450	1.00	W	1.22
8	GB	v. DAL	-400	1.00	W	1.25
9	NE	@ CLE	-230	1.00	L	0.00
10	CHI	@ BUF	-150	1.00	W	1.67
11	PHI	v. IND	-150	1.00	W	1.67
	Totals:		Bets:	11.00	Payout:	7.06
				Record This Week:
				W	L	P
				5	6	0
	Week Win Percent:
	45.45%
	Bet Win Percent:
	-35.86%

GRAND TOTAL:							-38.40%			20.13
										32.68
										-12.55

Week 09: Mossless, but still favored...

I didn't like a lot last week, but still did fine. This week, I like the 4 home dogs. But...

1	KC	@ OAK	+3	2.62
2	SEA	v. NYG	+6	2.47
3	DET	v. NYJ	+4	2.32
4	PIT	@ CIN	-4.5	2.17
5	MIA	@ BAL	+5	2.03
6	CHI	@ BUF	-3	1.88
7	HOU	v. SD	+2.5	1.73
8	NE	@ CLE	-5	1.59
9	ATL	v. TB	-8	1.44
10	PHI	v. IND	-3	1.29
11	MIN	v. ARI	-9	1.15
12	DAL	@ GB	+8	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	21.68	Payout:	0.00

1	HOU	v. SD	+120	1.00
2	KC	@ OAK	+125	1.00
3	DET	v. NYJ	+180	1.00
4	MIA	@ BAL	+190	1.00
5	SEA	v. NYG	+230	1.00
6	ATL	v. TB	-400	1.00
7	MIN	v. ARI	-450	1.00
8	GB	v. DAL	-400	1.00
9	NE	@ CLE	-230	1.00
10	CHI	@ BUF	-150	1.00
11	PHI	v. IND	-150	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	11.00	Payout:	0.00

... PHI over IND? Hard to bet against Peyton, even without Clark.

DET as a home dog in Bill Simmons' "vegas zone"... not bad, but makes me nervous. Rex will have his team bounce back hard.

KC getting 3 is epic to me, even if it's at OAK. Why? Because by the time this posts, I bet KC has Moss.

Worst pick of the week? MIN -9. This team is imploding. Unless AP gets 45 carries and TJ replaces old man winter, I think this game is actually a W for ARI.

And the "power" rankings... as IF they had power.

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		4 - 2 - 0	58.78%
2	BAL	▲1	3 - 3 - 1
3	PIT	▲1	5 - 2 - 0
4	SEA	▼2	4 - 3 - 0
5	NE	▲1	3 - 2 - 1
6	NYG	▲1	4 - 3 - 0
7	SF	▲2	3 - 4 - 0
8	MIA		4 - 2 - 0
9	NYJ	▼4	5 - 2 - 0	52.05%
10	STL	▲6	5 - 1 - 1
11	HOU	▲6	2 - 4 - 1
12	PHI	▼2	4 - 3 - 0
13	SD		3 - 5 - 0
14	CLE	▼2	3 - 3 - 1
15	ATL	▼4	4 - 3 - 0
16	CIN	▼1	2 - 5 - 0
17	MIN	▼3	3 - 3 - 0
18	IND	▲1	4 - 2 - 1
19	DEN	▲2	2 - 4 - 0
20	OAK	▲10	3 - 4 - 0
21	TEN	▼1	5 - 2 - 0
22	JAC	▲3	3 - 3 - 0
23	WAS		4 - 1 - 2
24	CHI	▼2	2 - 4 - 0
25	DAL	▼7	1 - 6 - 0	38.78%
26	DET	▼2	6 - 1 - 0
27	NO	▲2	1 - 6 - 0
28	GB	▼1	3 - 3 - 0
29	TB	▼1	2 - 3 - 1
30	BUF	▼4	3 - 4 - 0
31	CAR		2 - 3 - 0
32	ARI		1 - 5 - 1