Week 02 - Done and done

Mild victories all the way around this week. Hopefully I can keep up the consistency, but here are the results:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	NE	@ NYJ	+1	21%	$17.37	W	$33.91
2	GB	@ DET	-3	20%	$17.05	W	$31.87
3	TEN	@ CIN	+1	20%	$16.74	W	$32.68
4	SD	@ DEN	+1	19%	$16.02	L	$0.00

and...

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	GB	@ DET	-165	35%	$12.96	W	$20.82
2	PHI	@ DAL	+245	33%	$12.20	L	$0.00

for a solid payout of...

Bet Income
$26.94
Ending Bank
$248.73
Total Return
10.83%

By way of analysis, the PHI/DAL game was a great game (even with DeSean's ridiculous "fumble"), and easily could have gone either way. PHI had the game in the bag if not for a few very lame fumbles during McNabb/Westbrook handoffs. The SD game was just terrible to watch, since Ed Hoculi is one of the best. That call cost me $16.02, Eddy, should I expect a check in the mail?

Had PHI and SD panned out, it would have been a perfect weekend.

I'm running this week's preliminary picks tonight, I'll have power ranks tomorrow and initial picks. Woot!

Week 02 - And the Picks Are In

I waited for cheap juice day to place the bets, but here's the recap:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt
1	NE	@ NYJ	+1	21%	$17.37
2	GB	@ DET	-3	20%	$17.05
3	TEN	@ CIN	+1	20%	$16.74
4	SD	@ DEN	-1	19%	$16.02
5	BAL	@ HOU	+4.5	19%	$16.00

and...

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt
1	GB	@ DET	-165	35%	$12.96
2	PHI	@ DAL	+245	33%	$12.20
3	BAL	@ HOU	+175	31%	$11.43

Lots of duplication this week, but if either BAL or PHI hits for upset wins, the payouts more than make up for the duplication. So says the box, anyway.

As the week progresses, I'm more and more nervous about the potential of a devastating NE loss. I'm crossing my fingers that Moss and the O Line make it easy for Cassel to transition into a starter.

Let it Ride: Capper's Week 2 Final Bets

My final bets are in. I liked so many of the moneyline picks, it was hard for me to keep my bet count down, so I didn't do my usual parlay system (4 3-team parlays using my top 9 bets), and instead did 3 parlays using my top 5 picks, 1 4-team teaser and 4 moneyline bets. The main problem i see is a lack of diversification, all my parlays overlap so if a couple go bad, the whole thing falls apart. Reminds me a lot of my favorite casino game, craps. Just praying that 7 doesn't show up and wipe me out....

Parlays:

1. GB (-3) over DET -- NE (+1) over NYJ -- PIT (-6.5) over CLE
2. GB (-3) over DET -- SD (+1) over DEN -- PIT (-6.5) over CLE
3. SD (+1) over DEN -- NE (+1) over NYJ -- NO (-1) over WAS

Teaser:

1. NYG (-2.5) over STL -- GB (+3) over DET -- NE (+7) over NYJ -- PIT (-1/2) over CLE

Moneyline:

1. IND (-130) over MIN
2. GB (-165) over DET
3. BUF (+175) over JAX
4. PHI (+245) over DAL

I love my underdog moneyline picks. In my mind these games could go either way, so i'll take my chances with the 'dogs and hopefully collect the bonus money. I will be looking for these types of picks all year.

Week 02 - Bet 'Em High, Bet 'Em Hard

So here are the best of the best this week, with Moneylines in and spreads gone wild:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %
1	NE	@ NYJ	+1.5	21%
2	GB	@ DET	-3	21%
3	TEN	@ CIN	+1	20%
4	BAL	@ HOU	+4.5	19%
5	NO	@ WAS	-1	19%
6	PHI	@ DAL	+7
7	MIN	v. IND	+2
8	SD	@ DEN	-1.5
9	CHI	@ CAR	+3
10	BUF	@ JAC	+5.5
11	OAK	@ KC	+3.5
12	TB	v. ATL	-7
13	MIA	@ ARI	+6.5
14	SF	@ SEA	+7
15	CLE	v. PIT	+6.5
16	STL	v. NYG	+9

And the Moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %
1	GB	@ DET	-165	35%
2	PHI	@ DAL	+260	33%
3	BAL	@ HOU	+175	31%
4	MIN	v. IND	+110
5	TB	v. ATL	-320
6	PIT	@ CLE	-270
7	SEA	v. SF	-300
8	KC	v. OAK	-180
9	NYG	@ STL	-460
10	CAR	v. CHI	-175
11	ARI	v. MIA	-265
12	JAC	v. BUF	-220
13
14
15
16

Lots of off games in the ML's, including NE, which was a bummer. NE to me was easy money. But I'm having a hard time believing MIN is the pick over IND - I think Peyton will be out for blood after a bold loss last week. Fortunately, it's off the betting radar for the box.

I LOVE the NE pick, I'd take it all week. A.) They hate the Jets. B.) Favre barely beat last year's weakest team with a host of worthless receivers and a weakened defense. C.) The Pats love rallying cries - I expect Moss to have Tom's face tattooed on his ass for the rest of his season as a show of solidarity. D.) All Cassel has to do is NOT SUCK, and the Pats can win. Not sucking is harder than it looks, but still doable.

TEN and BAL are likely to win with big D, both of which I can get behind. And GB may actually be as good as they seemed on Monday night.

As to NO... they're playing WAS. 'Nuff said.

Picking PHI as a win over DAL is definitely a risk worth taking, given the huge payout and the definte possibility that the real McNabb shows up. In a shootout, DAL has the edge, but Asante will follow TO, so hopefully it can come down to the last possession. A little luck here worth big bucks.

I'll place bets tomorrow on cheap Fridays. Woot!

MADCAPPING WEEK 2

The lines are in, so it's time for my weekly recommendations... I love the beginning of the season, there's so much uknown, leading to lots of opportunities for betting the 'dogs. The other thing to look for is an overreaction to Week 1 results. Let's get this thing started:

	191	Oakland Raiders	+3½
	192	Kansas City Chiefs	-3½

... Two main thoughts here: (1) KC's offense actually moved the ball fairly well against NE. Tony Gonzalez remains a beast, as does Larry Johnson. I like Damon Huard more than Brodie Croyle so I think they get an upgrade by injury at the QB position. Oakland's defense was shredded Monday Night, and their offense looked inept. Both are week teams, so it could go either way, but I like the Chiefs at home by 4.

Pick = KC Chiefs
Mad Capping = KC 14 - oak 10
Confidence Level = 60%

	193	Tennessee Titans	+1
	194	Cincinnati Bengals	-1

... The Bengals scare me a little bit. Their organization is still a mess, but they have the firepower to just explode at any moment. TN beat a very good JAX team last week, while CIN got manhandled by BAL. This is another game that I think the backup might be an improvement at the QB position. I never liked Vince Young, so I'm not worried about him on the bench. The spread is razor-thin, but I like the Titans on the road.

Pick = TN Titans
Mad Capping = tn 19 - CIN 17
Confidence Level = 60%

	195	Indianapolis Colts	-2½
	196	Minnesota Vikings	+2½

... Both teams lost week 1 unexpectedly, so how to cap this game? I'm calling this the first over-reaction spread of our list. Indy goes into MIN and creams this over-rated team, and with such a low spread I'm confident Indy covers.

Pick = IND Colts
Mad Capping = ind 40 - MIN 13
Confidence Level = 70%

	197	New Orleans Saints	-1 (-115)
	198	Washington Redskins	+1 (-105)

... I'm definitely down on WAS. I hate organizations that change offensive coordinators every year, especially with unproven young QBs. On the other hand, NO is completely unreliable, Marques Colton is injured, and this is a home 'dog situation.

Pick = NO Saints
Mad Capping = no 23 - WAS 17
Confidence Level = 70%

	199	Green Bay Packers	-3 (-115)
	200	Detroit Lions	+3 (-105)

... Did Vegas SEE how bad DET looked? What the hell is going on here? This seems like such a gimme it makes me nervous, but I'm sticking to my guns for now. Packers by 10.

Pick = GB Packers
Mad Capping = gb 20 - DET10
Confidence Level = 90%

	201	Chicago Bears +3
	202	Carolina Panthers -3

... Ahhhh a game that requires a crystal ball! Both teams were terrible last year, and both teams came up with upsets last week. I have to admit the Bears was more impressive (against the Colts), but CAR winning in SD is also an accomplishment. It's very tempting to go with the Bears and take the points, here... but I'm not gonna do do it. Give me the Panthers at home by 6.

Pick = CAR Panthers
Mad Capping = CAR 16 - chi 10
Confidence Level = 60%

	203	New York Giants	-9 (-105)
	204	St. Louis Rams	+9 (-115)

... This reminds me of betting on NE last year. There's no doubt about the outcome, it's just a matter of how badly will they beat their opponent. STL looked awful vs. PHI last week, and I just don't see them keeping up with the Giants either. I'm staying away from this bet due to the large spread, but I'd take the Giants by 14.

Pick = NY Giants
Mad Capping = nyg 24 - STL 10
Confidence Level = 70%

	205	Buffalo Bills	+5½
	206	Jacksonville Jaguars	-5½

... I like a big upset for Buf this week. JAX has lost 3 starting offensive linemen and 1 of their backups. This means they are going to struggle offensively, and I like BUF's young O to score some points. Even if JAX pulls out a win, no way it's more than a field goal.

Pick = BUF Bills
Mad Capping = buf 21 - JAX 20
Confidence Level = 80%

	207	Atlanta Falcons		+7
	208	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		-7

... This is definitely NOT an over-reaction to last week. ATL looked dangerous last week in crushing DET, and TB lost to a decent NO team. Garcia is injured, and TB still has a 7 point spread. The question is whether ATL's running attack can duplicate last week's performance, and keep the game within 7, or even upset. I think they do.

Pick = ATL Falcons
Mad Capping = TB 21 - atl 16
Confidence Level = 50%

	209	San Francisco 49ers	+7
	210	Seattle Seahawks	-7

... SEA is a team with injury issues at WR (read: top 4 WRs are injured), and SF is just really bad. I hate this game, I refuse to bet it.

Pick = SEA Seahawks
Mad Capping = SEA 24 - sf 7
Confidence Level = 20%

	211	Miami Dolphins	+7 (-120)
	212	Arizona Cardinals	-7 (EVEN)

... So is MIA better than we thought, barely losing to NYJ? Or are the Jets not as good as we think? Either way, is it ever a good idea to bet ARI giving 7 points? Probably not. Also notice that there is zero juice on the ARI bet, so the house only takes money if they can't cover. When the bookies want you to bet one way, you gotta go the other.

Pick = MIA Dolphins
Mad Capping = ARI 16 - mia 13
Confidence Level = 70%

	213	New England Patriots	+1½
	214	New York Jets	-1½

... Seeing this spread makes me feel like a genious. Earler this week I called for betting NE whenever they are dogs, because they are going to win a lot of close games. The line shifted 1/2 point, which is unfortunate, but I still love NE to upset this week.

Pick = NE Patriots
Mad Capping = ne 17 - NYJ 16
Confidence Level = 90%

	215	Baltimore Ravens	+4½
	216	Houston Texans	-4½

... So BAL beats Cincy and HOU gets slammed by PIT, and they HOU is the favorite here? Shaub is getting Carr'ed and he's going up againt the always impressive BAL defense this week. On the other hand, BAL's offense has basically nothing. Troy Smith makes his first start, McGahee is hurt and I can't name one WR or TE on their team. Yeah I hate this game. I'm not betting it.

	217	San Diego Chargers	-1½
	218	Denver Broncos	+1½

... Should be a great game. Cutler-to-Royale looked like Steve Young and Jerry Rice last week, and SD remains a powerhouse. I'd love to give this to Denver as a home 'dog, but with such a low spread, I'm sticking with the Chargers. I'm guessing it stays relatively close until Tomlinson puts it away late in the 4th quarter.

Pick = SD Chargers
Mad Capping = sd 28 - DEN16
Confidence Level = 80%

	219	Pittsburgh Steelers	-6
	220	Cleveland Browns	+6

... I definitely agree that PIT wins this game big. In fact way bigger than two field goals. I'm calling out the Browns as over-rated early on, PIT smokes them.

Pick = PIT Steelers
Mad Capping = pit 30 - CLE 10
Confidence Level = 90%

Philadelphia Eagles	+7 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys	-7 (-105)

... Probably the game fo the week, I'm psyched it's the Monday Nighter. Seven points is a big spread in gambling terms, but really only 1 score in actuality. Both teams looked impressive, but I like the points in a game that could go either way.

Pick = PHI Eagles
Mad Capping = DAL 30 - phi 24
Confidence Level = 50%

Week 02 - Let the Spread Moves Begin

Here are some early spread moves (at my book):

Fav	Dog	Loc	Current	Delt
KC	OAK	KC	-4	0.0
CIN	TEN	CIN	-1	0.0
IND	MIN	MIN	-2	0.0
NO	WAS	WAS	-1	-1.0
GB	DET	DET	-3	0.0
CAR	CHI	CAR	-3	0.0
NYG	STL	STL	-9	0.0
JAC	BUF	JAC	-5.5	0.5
TB	ATL	TB	-7.5	0.5
SEA	SF	SEA	-7	1.0
ARI	MIA	ARI	-6.5	0.5
NYJ	NE	NYJ	-1.5	0.5
HOU	BAL	HOU	-4.5	0.0
SD	DEN	DEN	-1.5	0.5
PIT	CLE	CLE	-6.5	-0.5
DAL	PHI	DAL	-7	0.0

I know really early money (on Sunday) came in big on PHI, but now the money's been moving to SF (or more accurately, against SEA without Burleson) and onto NO after WAS's pathetic outing. No significant moves yet (like off of a 3 or a 7), but it's still early.

Week 02 - Box's Premature Ejac... Handicaps

Just a quick run down, here are the initial spread numbers - won't have final bets until later this week:

1	NE	@ NYJ	+2
2	GB	@ DET	-3
3	NO	@ WAS	0
4	TEN	@ CIN	+1
5	BAL	@ HOU	+4.5
6	PHI	@ DAL	+7
7	MIN	v. IND	+2
8	CHI	@ CAR	+3
9	BUF	@ JAC	+6
10	OAK	@ KC	+4
11	SD	@ DEN	-2
12	MIA	@ ARI	+7
13	SF	@ SEA	+8
14	TB	v. ATL	-8
15	STL	v. NYG	+9
16	PIT	@ CLE	-6

Early impressions - love the BAL pick, Matt Schaub did his best David Carr last week, getting sacked, throwing picks, and fumbling like it was his job. All Flacco has to do is not suck. Like NO pick too, WAS and Jason Campbell are, in my estimation, ridiculously terrible. I'm not loving the TEN pick, since Kerry Collins is cro magnon man, and Palmer will have revenge on his mind. I can see how Haynesworth, Vandenbosch, and Bullock could give the Bengals problems though. And DEN? Well, I think they looked amazing against the pee wee Raiders, but LT should cut them like butter, and Rivers can actually complete a pass. I don't like that one bit.

Early Lines are in.... and their Mad

The early lines came in today and after taking a quick look there are some crazy ones.... here's what i've seen so far:

	193	Tennessee Titans	+1	-	-
	194	Cincinnati Bengals	-1	-	-

	197	New Orleans Saints	-1 (-105)	-	-
	198	Washington Redskins	+1 (-115)	-	-

	201	Chicago Bears	+3 (+105)	-	-
	202	Carolina Panthers	-3 (-125)	-	-

	203	New York Giants	-9 (-105)	-	-
	204	St. Louis Rams	+9 (-115)	-	-

	205	Buffalo Bills	+6	-	-
	206	Jacksonville Jaguars	-6	-	-

	209	San Francisco 49ers	+7½	-	-
	210	Seattle Seahawks	-7½	-	-

	211	Miami Dolphins	+7 (-115)	-	-
	212	Arizona Cardinals	-7 (-105)	-	-

	213	New England Patriots	+2½ (-115)	-	-
	214	New York Jets	-2½ (-105)	-	-

	215	Baltimore Ravens	+4½	-	-
	216	Houston Texans	-4½	-	-

	219	Pittsburgh Steelers	-6½	-	-
	220	Cleveland Browns	+6½	-	-

	221	Philadelphia Eagles	+7 (-115)	-	-
	222	Dallas Cowboys	-7 (-105)

NO is only giving 1 point against WAS, the Pats are dogs, HOU favored over BAL, and PHI getting 7 points vs DAL...

What does the box think?