Week 16 - Box's Results

Here are the results for Week 16. I'm rushing through the week to get on to this week which appears to be a crazy week to me.

Results for Week 16

Moneyline: BUF (120) v. NYG - $5.00 wins $0.00

Moneyline: KC (180) v. DET - $5.00 wins $0.00

Moneyline: CHI (310) v. GB - $5.00 wins $20.50

Spread: SF +6 (-115) v. TB - $20.00 wins $37.39

Parlay: STL +13.5 (-110) v. PIT, SF +12 (-115) v. TB, CIN +9 (-125) v. CLE, DEN +14.5 (-110) v. SD - $5.00 wins $0.00

Results for Week 16
Bet Totals:	$40.00
Potential Winnings:	$62.89
Payouts:	$57.89
Actual Profit:	$17.89
%s: Week 16	44.73%

I would say, all in all, I can't complain with my results. It was an odd betting week, but I still did pretty well. Had I stuck to my odds method, I would have been closer to a 62.79% win week (Box suggested I double the SF bet, and place some different parlays) winning $154.58 on bets of $94.96. I'll give up the 20% to have a little fun with the bets this late in the game. My goal is a breakeven year, which as a dog picker, would be a massive undertaking. My win percentages after Week 16 improved a bit, too, as I went 9-7 overall with my picks:

	Parlay	Tease	Ind
1 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	61.76%
2 Team Bet	41.18%	70.59%	61.03%
3 Team Bet	17.65%	47.06%	53.92%
4 Team Bet	8.82%	38.24%	50.37%
5 Team Bet	2.94%	26.47%	50.29%
6 Team Bet	0.00%	17.65%	50.49%
7 Team Bet	0.00%	14.71%	51.68%
8 Team Bet	0.00%	14.71%	51.84%
9 Team Bet	0.00%	14.71%	51.31%
10 Team Bet	0.00%	5.88%	51.62%
11 Team Bet	0.00%	2.94%	52.54%
12 Team Bet	0.00%	2.94%	52.70%
13 Team Bet	0.00%	2.94%	52.83%
14 Team Bet	0.00%	3.33%	52.62%
15 Team Bet	0.00%	5.00%	52.33%

Honestly, if I can bet like this going forward, I could have an unstoppable machine. A MACHINE I tell you!

Week 16 - Box's Final Bets

I have a LOT of catching up to do. The holidays are pure craziness, so bear with me, some of these posts are coming very late. Here are the final bets I placed for Week 16 - it could have been a better week had I bet my one-two as the box suggested, but as it's late in the season, I'm happy just to get by at this point. Here are the bets:

Bets for Week 16

Moneyline: BUF (120) v. NYG - $5.00 to win $6.00

Moneyline: KC (180) v. DET - $5.00 to win $9.00

Moneyline: CHI (310) v. GB - $5.00 to win $15.50

Spread: SF +6 (-115) v. TB - $20.00 to win $17.39

Parlay: STL +13.5 (-110) v. PIT, SF +12 (-115) v. TB, CIN +9 (-125) v. CLE, DEN +14.5 (-110) v. SD - $5.00 to win $15.00

I love playing these positive moneylines on what clearly look like mismatches. Buffalo is the superior team (though, sadly, it doesn't pay out), and KC and Chicago are nice longshot bets. The single spread bet felt like a longshot to me, but the Box says and I do. The Parlay is purely for ego's sake.

Week 16 - Basket of Eggs - Capper's Final Picks

I am leaning heavily on TB and MIN this week. In fact, I doubled my wager amount this week 2, so basically if they go down, my season is over. Only one week left, though, so might as well, right?

3-team Parlay:

1. [CLE -3 v CIN -- TB -6 v SF -- BUF +3 v NYG]

4-team Teaser:
2. [TB 0 v SF -- TN -2.5 v NYJ -- GB -2.5 v CHI -- MIN -0.5 v WAS]
3. [TB 0 v SF -- CLE +3 v CIN -- SD -2.5 vs DEN -- MIN -0.5 v WAS]

Single-Game:
4. TB -6 v SF
5. MIN -6.5 v WAS

So there you have it.... TB x 4 bets and MIN x 3 bets. Both against the box. I hope this is one of my weeks.

TMC

Week 16 - True Win Percentages, Sighs Abound

So as I mentioned in my last post, I found a major flaw in my programming. A major flaw. What was it you ask? Let me tell you and rant about my moron-acy.

On a weekly basis, I enter the scores into the Box to update my performance. I went to enter the scores from Week 15 and update my performance when I noticed something odd happened -- my picks changed. Magic? I think not. So I deleted the scores and checked my picks, and they were back to the picks I posted here. "Hmmm..." I thought. That's odd. So I went back through my math, picking around, thinking maybe I just entered something wrong. Lo and behold, my stupidocity went far beyond a wrong entry.

Part of my pick algorithm figures in historical pick win percentages. For instance, if my number 6 pick historically is winning 60% and my number 5 pick is winning 50%, the Box is trained to say, "that's weird, we should switch them". As more data comes in, the Box should get more accurate as the best picks float to the top. It's a simple way to train the box using wins and losses, but it's been working effectively. This week, I noticed that the Box is not using historical win percentages (as in, based on overall win percentages on Week 14, the Box is trained for Week 15), it was using live win percentages (as in, as scores come in, the Box changes current picks to look like it wins more). That explains my win percentage of a ridiculously astounding 87% for my number one pick - the Box keeps CHANGING the number one picks going backwards to make them look like winners.

Oops.

So, I have fixed the error. And I have cried and lied in the fetal position. I need a binky. Is all lost? Not even close.

Here are my true win percentages (note: these are before modification using the financials - actual win percentage should be slightly higher), and they are far more realistic:

	Parlay	Tease	Ind
1 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	60.61%
2 Team Bet	39.39%	69.70%	59.85%
3 Team Bet	18.18%	48.48%	53.54%
4 Team Bet	9.09%	39.39%	50.38%
5 Team Bet	3.03%	27.27%	50.61%
6 Team Bet	0.00%	18.18%	50.76%
7 Team Bet	0.00%	15.15%	52.16%
8 Team Bet	0.00%	15.15%	52.08%
9 Team Bet	0.00%	15.15%	51.35%
10 Team Bet	0.00%	6.06%	51.82%
11 Team Bet	0.00%	3.03%	52.89%
12 Team Bet	0.00%	3.03%	52.90%
13 Team Bet	0.00%	3.03%	52.91%
14 Team Bet	0.00%	3.45%	52.59%
15 Team Bet	0.00%	5.26%	52.11%

If the glass was half empty, I just lost 27% of my number one pick win rate. If the glass is half full, 60% is INCREDIBLY PROFITABLE if you bet real money. So it's really bitter sweet. The teaser bets are a little misleading - I hit a 15 team teaser once last season, and it's skewed the results slightly. If you remove my 2006 numbers, my numbers get much uglier for 2007:

	Parlay	Tease	Ind
1 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	50.00%
2 Team Bet	31.25%	62.50%	51.56%
3 Team Bet	12.50%	31.25%	45.83%
4 Team Bet	6.25%	31.25%	46.09%
5 Team Bet	6.25%	12.50%	46.88%
6 Team Bet	0.00%	6.25%	47.40%
7 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	47.77%
8 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	48.05%
9 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	46.18%
10 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	45.94%
11 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	45.74%
12 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	45.31%
13 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	45.91%
14 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	47.19%
15 Team Bet	0.00%	0.00%	44.81%

The favorite trend is killing the Box (and Vegas, for that matter - I read that handicappers can't figure out how high to set spreads, since this year the faves are just killing everything). But despite losing, the teasers win. And win with a buffer underneath them. Which tells me that the Box is roughly 6 points away from a killer win percentage this year. Sigh.

The real underlying issue now is confidence. My self confidence is mildly shattered. Well, that's a lie. I'm a cocky bastard. It might be sprained a bit, but nothing some HGH can't fix.

So the question now is, what to bet? Based on these win percentages, this is what I should do:

1.) 2 Individual Spread bets
2.) 2 Team Parlay (cheap if I can get it)
3.) 4 Team Teaser

That's right, the teaser. The teaser I so ardently mocked turns out to be my most profitable bet. Expect to see it this week in my bets, as I swallow my pride and go for the bucks.

Stay tuned for later today, and don't forget if the Steelers/Rams are in your line up, BET TODAY, it's crappy football Thursday on NFL Network!

Week 16 - DELTA FORCE 2007 - Vegas vs. the Capper

Brutal Week 15, reminds me of week 5. Maybe I avoid weeks ending in 5 next season? Anyway, here's the breakdown for Week 16:

VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER............... DIFF.
PIT (-7.5) at STL.....PIT(-7) ..................... 0.5
DAL (-11)at CAR...... DAL(-14) .................... 3.0
CLE(-3.0) at CIN..... CLE (-6) .................... 3.0
GB(-9.0) at CHI...... GB(-14) ..................... 5.0
HOU (+7.0) at IND.... HOU (+6)..................... 1.0
KC (+5.0) at DET..... KC (+6)...................... 1.0
NYG(-3) at BUF....... NYG (+2)..................... 5.0
OAK (+13) at JAX..... JAX (-9)..................... 4.0
PHI (+3) at NO....... PHI (+3)..................... 0.0
ATL (-10) at ARI..... ATL (+9)..................... 1.0
TB (-7) at SF........ TB(-11)...................... 4.0
MIA (+22) at NE...... MIA (+12).................... 10.0
BAL (+8) at SEA...... BAL (+6)..................... 2.0
NYJ (+8.5) at TEN.... NYJ (+7)..................... 1.5
WAS (+6.5) at MIN.... WAS(+5)...................... 1.5
DEN (+8) at SD ...... DEN (+11).................... 3.0

Not as much red as I've had in the past, but still plenty to talk about. As usual, I love the favorites, while The Box loves the underdogs. Vegas is hitting just shy of 50% on the year, so it really doesn't matter which way you play, as long as you know which games to play. Here are my favorites:

1. CLE -3 vs. CIN: CLE has been a stalwart this year. They are consistently underrated, and this week continues the trend. CIN has shown zero this year, and they are out of the playoff picture. CLE is racing to hold onto the #6 seed, plus they can catch PIT should they falter down the stretch. Talent + motivation = CLE wins. So the only question is what is the spread? It's only a field goal, baby. Bet it straight up, in parlays and in teasers.

2. TB -7 vs SF: SF beat CIN last week. whoopty doo. TB, like cleveland has been a mad capper darling this year, and I don't see any reason SF keeps up. Garcia is back healthy, the running game stays strong, and SF's debut of Shaun something or other last week don't mean squat here. Like it. Love it.

3. MIN -6.5 vs WAS: WAS upset the Giants last week. But MIN is a bad matchup for them. Todd Collins had a brilliant 1st game stepping into the lineup, but he was TERRIBLE last week, which is more in line with what is expected from a 35 yr old backup. WAS won't be able to run against MIN's #1 run defense, and Collins isn't gonna win the game for them. SO! how much will MIN win by? Spread is less than a TD, so I love it.

4. BUF +3 vs NYG: We all see the Giants free-falling. Can they salvage the season by winning this game? Maybe. BUF just got knocked out of the playoffs, so their will may be lowered... But if you look at the season, BUF doesn't lose games by much, plus they are the hotter team right now. Plus they are at home. Plus they have a bunch of young players trying to prove they should start next season. Did I mention Shockey is out for the year, Burres can barely walk and Eli doesn't have anyone else to throw to? I'm taking the dog, here. Byf +9 in a teaser looks like a winner, too.

5. GB -9 vs CHI: You know I love GB, the only question is how close can CHI get? I think we all saw why Kyle Orton is the 3rd stringer last week, and GB has done well covering large spreads this year. The talent and emotion both side with GB, so I'm trusting them to win this game by two scores. GB -3 in a teaser is awesome, also, no way the win this game by less than a field goal.

6. SD -8 vs DEN: Sort of a last minute insert, here, but SD is rolling, Tomlinson is kicking arse and DEN is falling rapidly. Game is in SD and I don't see DEN stopping SD's running game and play-action. SD -2 in a teaser is also a sweet deal, bypassing the critical 7, 4 and 3 point critical points (most likely point differentials).

7. HOU +7 vs IND: I'm so-so on this one, but IND hasn't been blowing out teams, and HOU remains another favorite of mine. I am bothered by IND being at home, so I may drop this pick. The Box likes it, though, so I may have to stick it out. The teaser doesn't give me any more comfort, so I would stay away unless you love IND -1 to win it.

8. TN -2.5 vs NYJ: This is the teaser-spread. The Titans won't get upset, they need this game too badly and young actually looks good. Teasing the spread to under a field goal is huge, here.

9. PIT -1.5 vs STL: Another teaser-only bet. PIT needs this game to stay ahead of CLE, and STL just hasn't played this year. Their run defense is terrible, so Willie Parker should have a field day. Not to mention PIT has lost two in a row, so I fully expect them to come up with vengeance.

Final picks coming up tomorrow...

Week 16 - The Rankings - Big Jumps, Small Brains

So the rankings are in for Week 16 (overall, beta, alpha, Sharpe). The story? Small minds are making big jumps. Here are the overall rankings:

The Gamblers'
Power Rankings
1	NE
2	IND
3	DAL
4	GB
5	PIT
6	SD	▲4
7	SEA	▼1
8	JAC	▲1
9	MIN	▼2
10	CLE	▲1
11	TB	▲4
12	HOU	▲2
13	NYG	▼5
14	PHI	▲2
15	NO	▲2
16	CIN	▼3
17	DET	▼5
18	WAS	▲2
19	ARI	▼1
20	OAK	▼1
21	TEN	▲2
22	CAR	▼1
23	DEN	▼1
24	NYJ
25	BUF	▲1
26	CHI	▼1
27	STL
28	SF	▲2
29	BAL	▼1
30	KC	▼1
31	MIA	▲1
32	ATL	▼1

The movement outside of the top 5 is ridiculous. The San Diego Chargers have finally made a leap up the ranks, since they've started playing some consistent ball over the last few weeks. Has Norv "What's a Football?" Turner finally figured out how to win?

Hardly.

The Chargers have a 4 game win streak going against some of the toughest competition in the NFL: Baltimore, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Detroit. Powerhouses all. Detroit, the highest ranking of those 4, ranks in the bottom half of the league this week. Tennessee, who early in the season was a nice spreadbuster, seems to have lost steam as teams figure out how to fool Vince Young and Albert Haynesworth was on and off with injuries. KC and Baltimore? Herm Edwards and Brian Billick. 'Nuff said.

The other biggest jumpers were losers: the aforementioned Detroit team, let by a schizophrenic ego maniacal Mike Martz on offense, and a truly terrible New York Giants. Tom Coughlin is just terrible. Last week against Washington, Coughlin's coaching staff called 28 runs and 53 PASSES. 53 PASSES!!! What, are you nuts? Granted, playing from behind often means you are forced to pass more than usual. But the Giants were getting 5.0 ypp on the ground, and 3.1 ypp through the air. Do the math, Tom. I hope the Giants don't make the playoffs, they will be easy pickings for whoever they would face first.

Here are this week's performance rankings:

	Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Team	Rank	Rank	Rank
ARI	17	13	6
ATL	31	32	27
BAL	30	18	10
BUF	22	30	16
CAR	25	12	21
CHI	23	28	30
CIN	19	4	18
CLE	14	7	25
DAL	4	1	32
DEN	24	25	12
DET	20	5	24
GB	3	11	13
HOU	12	10	2
IND	2	3	23
JAC	5	27	29
KC	29	31	26
MIA	32	16	9
MIN	9	14	3
NE	1	2	1
NO	13	23	31
NYG	15	6	20
NYJ	26	17	15
OAK	21	9	5
PHI	11	22	19
PIT	6	8	22
SD	7	19	28
SEA	8	15	4
SF	28	24	14
STL	27	29	8
TB	10	26	17
TEN	18	21	11
WAS	16	20	7

There have been some major adjustments in the Box this week. In large part because of a massive flaw in one of the major programming aspects. Needless to say, I have been deeply ensconced in the fixing of the issue, hence the slowdown in posts. I will be posting an updated Win % of the Box's Pure Picks, picks that based solely on the base statistics, before any financial mods. Look for it in a few, along with an updated this week's best bets after the early line moves.

Week 16 - Box's Broken But Still Beautiful

Here are this week's picks, I'll have commentary in the next day or so:

THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. SF +7 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon	40.0
2. CIN +3 v. CLE @Home - Bet Soon	42.5
3. BAL +8 v. SEA Away	41.5
4. HOU +7 v. IND Away x2! - Bet Soon	42.5
5. CAR +11 v. DAL @Home	40.0
6. DEN +8 v. SD Away	43.5
7. STL +7.5 v. PIT @Home	40.0
8. BUF +3 v. NYG @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
9. OAK +13 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon	42.0
10. MIA +22 v. NE Away - Bet Soon	41.0
11. CHI +9 v. GB @Home - Bet Soon	43.5
12. WAS +6.5 v. MIN Away	42.0
13. KC +5 v. DET Away	38.5
14. ATL +10 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon	37.5
15. PHI +3 v. NO Away - Bet Soon	43.0
16. NYJ +8.5 v. TEN Away	40.5

It's an ALL DOG week, which could easily blow up in my face. Last week I went 10-6 overall, so I'm hoping for another solid outing. That said, Baltimore v Seattle? SF v. TB? Denver v. SD at San Diego? Terrible.