Week 08: Half the Season, gone already???

I hate every pick this week but one: GB +6. Here are the picks and a bit of commentary:

1	SF	v. DEN	-1	2.65
2	SEA	@ OAK	+2.5	2.50
3	DET	v. WAS	-2.5	2.35
4	MIA	@ CIN	+1.5	2.20
5	TEN	@ SD	+3.5	2.05
6	STL	v. CAR	-3	1.90
7	KC	v. BUF	-7.5	1.75
8	TB	@ ARI	+3	1.60
9	JAC	@ DAL	+6.5	1.45
10	GB	@ NYJ	+6	1.30
11	HOU	@ IND	+5.5	1.15
12	PIT	@ NO	0	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	21.90

1	SEA	@ OAK	+110	1.00
2	TB	@ ARI	+140	1.00
3	TEN	@ SD	+165	1.00
4	JAC	@ DAL	+230	1.00
5	KC	v. BUF	-330	1.00
6	NYJ	v. GB	-240	1.00
7	IND	v. HOU	-240	1.00
8	STL	v. CAR	-145	1.00
9	DET	v. WAS	-135	1.00
	Totals:		Bets:	9.00

Here's what I think:

DEN bounces back this week. SF is terrible on the road, and London is waaaaay on the road.

SEA pick isn't bad, but OAK at home will keep it tight.

How is DET even a favorite over WAS in the first place? Is McNabb still playing?

Like the MIA pick.

This is the point in the season where SD realizes it has to win to make the playoffs, go 7-2 for the rest of the season, and Norv figures out a way to blow the wildcard. Something like 4th and 2 on the opp 38 yard line and he punts, even though he's behind by 4 with 4 min to go. You know - dumb. Long way of saying watch SD lay 50 on TEN this week.

BUF is switching back to a 4-3. That means a more confident defense to compliment an already scrappy offense (who is Steve Johnson anyway? which jerk in your fantasy league has him on their bench?). KC is a paper tiger - this year's CIN. BUF wins this outright. Hate this pick.

TB pick is ok.

JAC pick is ok.

Love the GB pick. Clay Matthews might have 4 sacks of Sanchez. I'm not just saying that because I hate the Jets and hope it happens.

IND should be giving 10 and it still wouldn't be enough. They'll stack 10 in the box with a single free safety to cover the entire receiving core (Andre Johnson = fantasy bust so far), Arian Foster will run for 3 yards in 45 attempts, and Peyton will throw for 825 yards with 6 TDs as the ultimate, "you had your one victory, now go fuck yourselves" game.

NO will get up for this game, and PIT just lost Aaron Smith, the anchor of their defensive front line. The wildcard is the NO secondary - Big Ben is pasting teams, it's strength against weakness. PIT looks good in this if the D holds sans Smith.

And we'll wrap with the lame and useless power rankings:

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		4 - 1 - 0	64.38%
2	SEA		4 - 2 - 0
3	BAL		3 - 2 - 1
4	PIT		4 - 2 - 0
5	NYJ		5 - 1 - 0
6	NE	▲1	2 - 2 - 1
7	NYG	▼1	3 - 3 - 0
8	MIA		3 - 2 - 0
9	SF	▲1	3 - 4 - 0	51.12%
10	PHI	▲8	4 - 2 - 0
11	ATL	▼2	3 - 3 - 0
12	CLE	▲2	2 - 3 - 1
13	SD		2 - 5 - 0
14	MIN	▲5	3 - 2 - 0
15	CIN	▲1	2 - 4 - 0
16	STL	▼1	5 - 1 - 1
17	HOU	▼6	2 - 3 - 1
18	DAL	▼1	1 - 5 - 0
19	IND	▼7	3 - 2 - 1
20	TEN		5 - 2 - 0
21	DEN		2 - 4 - 0
22	CHI	▲1	2 - 3 - 0
23	WAS	▲3	4 - 1 - 2
24	DET	▲4	5 - 1 - 0
25	JAC	▼3	3 - 3 - 0	33.24%
26	BUF	▼2	2 - 4 - 0
27	GB	▲2	2 - 3 - 0
28	TB	▼1	1 - 3 - 1
29	NO	▼4	1 - 6 - 0
30	OAK		2 - 4 - 0
31	CAR		2 - 3 - 0
32	ARI		1 - 4 - 1

Small Change - Week 7 Roundup

Sorry I didn't get my picks posted before the weekend, but I'll go through them below. Just a quick thought, though... Is it time to start picking rediculous upsets on the Moneyline? If you picked the Rams to upset Dallas this week, the payout would have been something like 8:1. Every week there is a huge upset. Miami did it to NE and SD, STL did it to WAS and DAL. If you correctly picked a big upset half the time, you'd be getting 4:1 payouts on average.

1. 3-Team Parlay: [Mia -3, NYG -9.5, NO +3] - LOST $5

- I bought into Mia after they beat SD last week. Dammit. BAL stopped the Wildcat, which wasn't totally shocking but what did surprise is how well they played offensively. Flacco had his best game so far and *poof* went my parlay bet.

- The Giants covered vs. SF, which I thought was predictable. West Coast teams travelling to the East are getting killed this year. Add that to the fact the Giants have looked like the strongest team in the NFL and you get a solid bet.

- NO totally blew this game. My abusive boyfriend (CAR) strikes again. I'd be more pissed, but MIA lost too, so really this was a bad bet all around.

2. 4-team Teaser: [NYJ+3, TN -4.5, HOU -3, NYG -4.5] - WON $9

- The Jets pushed, by losing to OAK in overtime by 3. This sucked, my friends. How the hell did that happen? This cost me payout dollas. Mangenious my ass.

- TN just rolled KC. Much like the NYG game, you just knew this was gonna happen.

3. NYJ -3: LOST $5

4. TN -8.5: WON $$4.76

5. NO +130: LOST $5

Overall a slightly down week, lost less than $2. That Jets game was the turning point for me. I would have had $10 flip my way on the single-game bet, and an additional $6 payout on my teaser. I couldn't resist going back to the Multi-game bets this week, and it cost me again. Had I stuck to my top picks I probably would have gone 2 for 2 with TN and NYG... but possibly may have been teased enough by an underdog Saints team and lost anyways.

Week 8 Analysis tomorrow!

Round up the Losses - Week 3

This week was Coyote Ugly, I'd chew my arm off to escape this week's results unnoticed. Even my last-second change to drop NE-6.5 in my 4th Teaser in favor of ATL+1 did nothing to save me. Only my low-stakes Den-230 bet won this week, here's how it went:

1st, what I did right:

1. TN+1 over HOU - TN is continuing to show they are a force in the AFC this year. I liked the Kerry Collins move, and they rolled over HOU as expected.

*Looking Forward: TN is 3-0 and probably will get bumped up by Vegas this week. Look out for unrealistic spreads.


2. PHI -3 over PIT - This game went as planned, with PHI just being better than PIT. I still like both these teams, but keep an eye on Rothlisberger's shoulder injury. I'm not even sure who their backup is...

*Looking Forward: Westbrook is out for a while, a big loss for PHI, but this team is very good. I'm not sure how Vegas will treat them since they are 2-1 but remember that loss came away at 3-0 Dallas.


3. DEN -230 - over NO - Turns out the spread was too high so my decision to stick with the MOneyline and use them as a +0.5 Teaser pick was well done. Both teams feature dynamic offenses with zero D.

*Looking Forward - NO dropped to 1-2 so look for them to be undervalued this week. They are goiong to win some games against teams that cannot keep up with their scoring ability. DEN is now 3-0 and is going to start getting high spreads that are going to be tough to justify.


4. ATL+1 over KC - This was a last-second entry to one of my Teasers based on KC's decision to start Tyler Thigpen at QB. ATL destroyed KC, who are looking very very bad.

*Looking Forward - I think I see the recipe here.... ATL has young talent that can outmatch weak opponents. This leads to them covering spreads in such games. Against stronger opponents their inexperience is a huge liabilty and they will get beaten badly.


4 good bets seems like a solid week, right? Well not when they're rolled up with these losers:

1. CAR +3.5 over MIN - This game looked so good to me last week, I am still in shock. Adrian Peterson has an injured hamstring, they are forced to bring in 37 yr old Frerotte due to poor QB play and CAR is healthy and on the rise, plus they get 3.5 points. MIN wins by 10, destroying not only the Moneyline bet (+170) and parlay, but the teaser with them at +9.5. This one killed me. I need to watch the highlights to see what happend here.

*Looking Forward: So is MIN the team everyone was droooling over in Preseason? I think it's safe to say we have no idea at this point. Their 0-2 start might have been an stumble, but I don't think we really know at this point. CAR is still a solid team worth taking a shot on.


2. CLE+2 over BAL - This was another death blow. I bet that they would snap out of their funk and return to last year's winning ways against a BAL team that on paper has very little to offer. Well I got punished for this wishful thinking in both my Moneyline (CLE +120) and Teaser (CLE+8) bets. It's amazing that low-scoring BAL was able to beat supposedly high-scoring CLE by more than 8 points, just amazing. I'm so depressed.

*Looking Forward: I think it's time to admit CLE is a loser this year. However, everyone else is thinking the same thing, so look for them to beat some spreads. BAL... I still know nothing about this team. They're 2-0, but with Flacco and Harbaugh in their frst year, will they keep it up? I'm guessing not, and hoping they get overrated by Vegas against some tougher teams.


3. DET+10 over SF - Yes, I praised JT O'Sullivan and than promptly bet against him... twice. My theory was that even if SF pulls out the victory, that DET's high-scoring offense would keep the game closer than 10 points. That was a great idea until they got rocked. How bad are the Lions exactly?

*Looking Forward: I was really hoping nobody but me would notice that the 49ers have looked very good so far. I'm guessing that the cat isn't in that bag anymore, so follow the spreads very carefuly. DET is a wildcard that will bust some spreads and never reward you. Only bet against them.


4. Buf +3.5 over OAK - I'm not sure what to do with Oakland. They busted up this spread, and really should have won this game.

*Looking Forward: I have a sneaking suspicion that this team is being held together with silly string by Kiffin.... and I just read he'll be fired today. Buf is 3-0, but cost me by not covering their spread against an apparently weak opponent. Bet them whenever they are 'dogs, but when is that going to happen exactly?

The SD -3 bet will be decided tonight, but my Teasers and Parlays are already busted, so it won't matter. Going 4-4 (so far) this week doesn't seem awful, but it hurts when those loses are divided up equally when you are parlay betting like me.

I have to stay the course, though. The only way to get back on top is to continue to bet big.

Weekly Bets = $40
Weekly Profit = (-$32)

Total Bets = $80
Total Profits = (-$22)
Total Return = -27.5%

Week 19 - Matty Lives!

Whew!

Matty boy! I thought you might have hit a snow bank or something, I haven't heard from you since before the holidays....

Anyway, I am most definitely pissed I didn't actually post my bets for the wild card weekend, I intended to spend my last $10 all in on a 4-team parlay which went 3-0-1 and would have paid off $60. Sadly I remain with only $10, and figure I should repeat the process this week. The spreads are huge so it's a tough call. But right now I like all the dogs to cover, possibly with the exception of GB and NE, who will probably destroy SEA and JAX, respectively.

It's been an awesome year 1 for us here at Mental Handicap, and this post-season and offseason should be fun. My goal is to research my win % on the various styles of betting, perfect the Wave Theory and determine the optimum betting system and stick with it in year 2. In addition, Matty and I will have to figure out a way to rank the teams in the offseason to get the 2008 season ready to go in Week 1. I have a feeling the box will struggle in the beginning so look for The Mad Capper to jump out to an early lead.

Happy New Year everyone!

Week 15 - Bad feelings justified - Weekly Roundup

This is one of those weeks I just shouldn't have bet. I had no confidence in my picks going in, and it turns out for good reason. One thing I should know by now, is that parlays are hard to win anyways, let alone when you don't trust the teams you've included.

Note to self: On iffy weeks, stick to single-game bets.

Onto the analysis...

The Good:

1. JAX +3 vs PIT- Well, well. JAX actually went into PIT and won. I had a good feeling about this game initially, but then faltered until I saw the box agreed with me. Glad I stuck with it, unfortuantely they were in parlays with crap. Moving forward I love this team to keep winning. Who's left on their schedule?

2. NO -3.5 vs ARI- This game scared the crap out of me, but NO pulled it out. Seems like they have rediscovered their 2006 form, and should be a good bet the last couple of weeks. ARI continues to disappoint, and should be a good team to bet against the rest of the way.

3. GB - 8.5 vs STL- GB has been such a good bet this year. This game was close for a little while, but STL's true colors showed up and GB pulled away. I like GB to win out and STL to keep losing to good teams.

The Bad:

1. ATL +13.5 vs TB- I got this one wrong big time. Much like the WAS/Sean Taylor emotional fallout, this game could have gone either way. I guessed that ATL would play hard for pride and keep it close, maybe even upset. The Box had it as the #1 pick... and Ka-Put. They got blown out 37-3. Putting this risky game in a teaser and a parlay was poor gambling too. TB is one of my favorite teams to bet with, I shoulda known better.

2. SEA -7 vs CAR- This was the shocker of the week. CAR has been terrible this year, all year. Zero flashes of potential, and down to their 3rd string QB. SEA has been off/on most of the year, but finally seemed to put it together for a nice winning streak. This game killed me as I had SEA in two parlays and a teaser, so 3 out of my 4 bets blew up based on this game. I don't think anyone saw this coming, and it was just one of those games that made for one of these weeks.

3. BAL -3.5 vs MIA- What... is... going on in BAL? I think this is 8 losses in a row, this time to the winless dolphins. Going into this game I did have a feeling this could be MIA's game to win this year, but logically it didn't make sense. See what logic gets you?

4. IND -10 vs OAK- Didn't see this game, but OAK kept it within 7 points. OAK has been pretty terrible this year, and I took a shot that IND would win big. I definitely wasn't going with OAK after last week's failure. I'd pick this way every week. And I'd be broke.

Week 14 - Teasers Pay Off Again - Weekly Roundup

I seem to have found my niche. The teasers have paid off big-time the past month, and I see no reason to stop going forward with them. This was actually an overall good week for me, I would have had a sweep had DAL performed up to par.

The good:

CLE -3.5 - my only single game bet, and once again CLE continued to be a solid bet. This was my favorite game, as they were hardly favored against a terrible NYJ team. Turns out a garbage time field goal nearly cost me this one, but CLE put one of their own up at closing to cover. I had them in a teaser +2.5 (love to flip favorites to dogs) C'mon Vegas, keep underestimating the Brownies!

IND -3 - I don't know why this game's spread actually moved down as the week went on, but it didn't matter. As I figured, Baltimore was exhausted after their tough loss to NE and just couldn't keep up. I may take a similar strategy with PIT next week, as they have a tough game vs. JAX and just got smacked around by the Patsies.

MIN -3 - aaah... This one felt good. Had them in two teasers and they rewarded my bandwagon jumping. This is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and should continue steamrolling weak opponents. It's December football, and that means battling out on the ground. The Vikes can run over anyone, and stop the run as well. Watch out for this team and reasonable spreads.

NO +2 - this one also felt good. I flipped them on a teaser to get them with points, figuring there was no way the lost to the Falcons. Turns out I didn't need to put them in the teaser, since they destroyed ATL, but winning is winning.

The Bad:

Dal -4.5 - They took a nap in the first half, and couldn't get going to put any distance between them and DET, who are a weak-ass team who should have been beaten badly. Using them in a teaser to reduce the spread to -4.5 should have been a lock, but I guess you can't win them all.

OAK +10.5 - had them in my crazy-whack 10 team parlay and this was just a bad call on my part. I figured incorrectly that Favre being hurt, and just coming off an emotional loss to DAL would give the pesky Raiders the edge to get within the large spread. Nope.

The Box - I had four box teams in my crazy-whack 10 team, and three lost. The box has been ice cold the past 3 weeks, and I'm picking a bad time to jump on blindly. Surely the incredible math Matty has shown means the next few weeks should be dead-on...

Teasers - Yeah, two of my three teasers won... but they would have won as parlays, too! Had I stuck to the parlay theory I discussed earlier in the week, I would have been paid out 6:1 instead of 2.2:1. Triple the profits lost to having no sack. To put it in real #s... I would have cleared $110 this week, putting me in the positive for the first time since week 3 on the year. Once again, I repeat... it is bad gambling to bet big when you are losing, and bet small when you are winning.

Progressive Parlay: Lost big time, but it was to be expected. It was a fun long shot, and I maintain my earlier opinion that bang for buck fun-wise... it's amazing. I cared about 10 games this week, and even when a couple lost, I still was following the other 8 really closely.

All in all I'm very curious to see how the spreads lay out this week. I am reinvigorated in the parlay bets I was in love with at the beginning of the season, but I think the spreads have to make sense in order to do it, since I rely on intuition and conviction, not on mathematics.

Total Bets = $25
Total Payouts = $39
Total Profit = $14
% Return = ~40%

Week 14 - More Betting Strategy and Monday Updates

Lots of theory being tossed around this week. I think Matty and I will be doing some serious investigation and debate in the offseason on how to improve our results for next year. I do find it interesting that we may have come full circle and the box may be forced to join me in parlay betting, seeing as it seems to be statistically the safest bet.

The results this week on my normal (non-whacky 10-team progressive parlay) bets have been good so far. Dallas squeaking out a win by one point blew up one of my teasers (I had them at -4.5), but CLE won nicely, as did Indy and MIN, leaving it all up to NO. I've got them in my remaining teasers at NO+2, so if they can avoid losing to lowly ATL, I will finish up this week, with something like a 40% return. Yours truly has been winning the past month, and I continue to kick myself for lowering my wagers from when I was losing regularly earlier in the year.

3 cheers for NO, and we can look at the good, bad and ugly tomorrow.

Oh and before I forget I have to chuckle and congratulate Matty on the worst parlay of the year: 0-5 is a sad site, my friend.

Week 13 - Half Point Revenge! (Recap)

Week 13 started with a box-Capper lovefest, and it has ended the same. Lots of winners this week, and would have swept if CLE hadn't been screwed by the refs (check out the last second pass to Winslow where they did not call him pushed out of bounds, despite TWO defenders preventing him from landing in bounds). My only regret? I didn't go all in like i was planning on, before I wussed out. Anyways, here's how it panned out:

The Good:
1. NYG -1.5 vs CHI: This was the first game I thought was going to screw me. Manning had yet another terrible day, and it seemed like Good Rex showed up. In the final minutes, the G-Men were down by 2, and driving down the field. A big completion gets them within field goal range, and past the 2 minute warning. Your humble narrator is stewing at his girlfriends apartment, trying not to let on that I've blown more money on gambling instead of on xmas presents. I'm cursing the damn half-point spread when WHAT? They throw a quick slant down to the 2 yd line... Could they be going for the Touchdown? 1st and goal and Droughs run it in untouched! The Giants go up by 6, hold on and cover the spread. Unbelievable. First time that's happened all year. +$4.35 profit.

2. JAX +6.5 vs IND: I kept watching the score flash across the screen and it seemed like Indy was up by 14 the whole time. This of course meant that JAX was going to have to try to out-gun Indy, which I figured would lead to an even bigger Indy victory. Very distressing. Plus, I'm once again cursing the half-point as a 14 point deficit is terrible if your betting on a +6.5 spread, since the Jags are gonna have to score two TDs to tie, and field goals are useless... so the game might as well be a pick-em. I didn't see the end of the game, but somehow the final score was 28-25! Did JAX actually kick a useless field goal to go down by 11, then score a TD and convert the 2-point conversion? All to beat the half-point spread? Yes! +4.55 profit.

3. 4-Team Teaser!
a) CLE +7 vs. ARI: As I mentioned above, CLE got hosed by the final call of the game. Winslow was clearly pushed out of the endzone. Didn't affect my teaser, though, since the final margin was 6 points. I think this is a mulligan game for CLE... They are still a tough team, but yesterday they turned the ball over stupidly 3 times.
b) TB +9 vs NO: Ever since week 2, I've been on the Tampa bandwagon, and they came through against unreliable NO this week, even without Garcia (which made me nervous). Was that Luke McCown leading them to almost 30 points? unreal.
c) NYJ +7 vs MIA: I still can't believe MIA was favored in this game. It confused me so much I started to believe it was some Vegas trick, a trap game to lure people into betting for the Jets... some trick, the final score was 40-13. I don't think I'd bet the Jets against anyone except MIA, so I'm pretty psyched to walk away with this one.
d) HOU +9.5 vs TN: Is it me or does Shaub get injured on every play? The guy needs to take the rest of the year off and get healed. The season is done anyways. I thought this game would be a lot closer, but thankfully TN was favored by 3.5, bumping my teaser spread to 9.5, just enough to cover the 8 point differential.
+$15.00 profit.

The Bad: Only CLE didn't win this week. Stupid Refs...

Weekly Total: +$18.90

Week 12 - Sunday Blues - Weekly Roundup

Well it started off so well with Thursday football. My last second changes to include indy and GB into the mix hit on Thankgiving, giving me a huge leg up on Sunday. Then it all went to crap.

First, the good:
IND vs ATL - I correctly added indy into the mix wednesday night, figuring they were a deep enough team to beat up lowly ATL. They are, and they did. I look forward to betting with IND and against ATL the rest of the way.

GB vs DET- It all came true.... DET was overrated and not given enough points, and GB went in there and spanked 'em. I added GB to my parlay and was looking forward to cashing in on Sunday.... Look for GB to keep winning, and keep an eye on any game they are not laying more than a field goal.

JAX vs BUF- I got this one right, too. JAX is the real deal, built for cold-weather power football. BUF is scrappy, but not ready to handle a team like this. BUF is still a good pick against the middle teams, though.

The Bad:
TN vs CIN- wow. 35-6. it wasn't even a game. My comment last week was that TN should just run over the Cincy defense. They didn't. The TN defense either misses Albert Haynesworth that much, or CIN just remembered how to play. Either way this pick blew up my parlay and half of my single-game picks.

KC vs OAK- I wisely moved them out of my parlay, but then stuck with them in two teasers, figuring that with a +0.5 at home against 2-win Oakland, it was a lock. It wasn't. I'm not sure what happened in this game, but it coast me two teasers.

ARI vs SF- The cards got beat by SF. Pathetic. Pathetic. Pathetic.

DEN vs CHI- Devin frickin Hester. Good for my fantasy team, bad for my single-game bet.

Eeesh...

net losses = $25.00

Week 11 - Put a Cap in yo' Weekly Roundup!

Well I've been waiting over a month to have a week like this. Meat and Meade for all my men! I don't know if this was a fluke week, or finally turning past the learning curve but yours truly successfully capped almost every game this week. The only one I know I missed was the Raiders game, which unfortunately I had in my parlay. Using a 4-team teaser as a backup worked brilliantly however, as OAK covered their +10.5, even though they lost vs. their base spread of +4.5.

I am particularly proud of the games I elected to avoid (see last post). Getting out of the way of SD away at JAX with Garrard back, MIA (who pushed) with Beck in his first start, and Buffalo trying to keep the game within 16 points made my week. Sticking to the games I had the least concern about was definitely a winning strategy this week.

The Good:
1. WAS +11 vs DAL paid $5.71 profit
2. STL -3 vs SF paid $5.71 profit
3. [KC +20.5 vs IND -- NE -10 vs BUF -- WAS +17 vs DAL -- OAK +10.5 vs MIN] paid $18.00 profit.

The Bad:
OAK +4.5 vs MIN lost $6.00

Total Bets = $24.00
Total Profit = $23.42
Return = 98%

If I had the stones, I would hit the moneyline on the underdog Titans tonight in Denver, but I'm walking away from the table up for this week.

Week 11 - Cap In Yo'... Basset Hound

It's another dog filled week for the Box! I gotta say, on some of your caps there Cappy, you are getting pretty close. I think you even picked the trap game (I'm thinking ARI v. CIN is the trap this week, though it MAY be NO v. HOU). Some notes on the Box picks - where it says "x2!" after a pick, it indicates a Box suggested double down based on a low volatility game. Where it says "Bet Soon", it's indicating that the spread is currently pushable (ie, 3, 7, 10, 14...). It means any spread move is significant, since it requires an additional score or one less score to cover. Also, I've added, just for fun, the Box's suggested Over/Under this week. It may not become a regular thing, but I'm adding it for kicks this week. My fun pick this week may be a single game Spread/Moneyline/Over-Under parlay. Wheeee!

Here's what the Box has to say:

THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. NO -0.01 v. HOU Away	40.0
2. WAS +10.5 v. DAL Away x2!	44.0
3. MIA +10 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon	40.0
4. NYJ +9.5 v. PIT @Home	41.5
5. CAR +9.5 v. GB Away	41.0
6. OAK +5.5 v. MIN Away	38.0
7. SF +2 v. STL @Home	33.0
8. SD +3 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon	43.5
9. CHI +5.5 v. SEA Away	40.0
10. DET +2.5 v. NYG @Home	41.0
11. BAL +2.5 v. CLE @Home	40.5
12. ARI +3 v. CIN Away - Bet Soon	40.5
13. BUF +15.5 v. NE @Home	46.5
14. TEN +2 v. DEN Away	41.0
15. KC +14 v. IND Away - Bet Soon	43.0
16. ATL +3 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon	41.5

Now, the NO game is currently a pick 'em, but the Box doesn't get that, so I have to make it some number less than .5. I went with .01, since making it less than that (I tried all the way to .) didn't make a difference in the Box convictions.

My favorites for the Box this week are NO, NYJ, and CAR, all in the top 5. NO will be hell bent this week to punish someone for that embarrassing loss. I wouldn't be surprised if Drew comes out deep and doesn't stop. It'll be a shootout, but with a rusty Schaub, my money's on NO. NYJ is a.) not as bad as they seem, and b.) not good at all. I think that's the perfect combo, plus an Eric Mangini who's familiar with Big Ben, for a 3 point loss and a beatdown of the spread. CAR is similar to me, despite the QB problems. I think if the D plays anywhere near the way they played in the 1st quarter of the IND game, it's a game that ends with a 3 point loss and a beatdown of this massive spread.

My least favorites, BUF, SD, BAL, and SF. Firstly, betting against NE is like mailing a check to the North Pole. Somebody's getting rich, and it ain't me. I'm glad the pick is a distant 13th. For the SD game, it's not hard to figure out how to win: stack the box, laugh at Philip Rivers. Honestly, he's a step away from wearing a bonnet instead of a helmet. I would have loved a JAC pick out of the Box here, but it was not to be. BAL is another one - BAL?? It may end up being a good pick if Boller gets the ball. Wait, wait... did I just say that starting Boller is a GOOD thing? Ridiculous. I agree with you on the STL v. SF game, too - Alex Smith DOES wear a bonnet when he plays. Did you see him launch almost every ball about 5 yards above his receiver's head on Monday night? How did anyone think SF could play on Monday night? Or is that where they put the game that's over early enough to get to bed for work?

In other news, here are the Box's overall W/L record on the year, and then over the Box's lifetime (2 years). Room for improvement, but respectable (and even profitable) if I were betting every game:

OVERALL RESULTS: 2007

Through Week 10

Win: 75

Loss: 63

Push: 6

Overall Win %: 54.17%

OVERALL RESULTS

Through Week 10

Win: 224

Loss: 167

Push: 9

Overall Win %: 57.13%

Week 10 - Box's First Impression - Wag the Dog(s)

The picks are in, and they are flea laden:

The PICKS

1. CIN +4.5 v. BAL Away

2. NYG +1.5 v. DAL @Home

3. SD +3.5 v. IND @Home

4. OAK +3 v. CHI @Home

5. JAC +4.5 v. TEN Away

6. MIA +2.5 v. BUF @Home

7. MIN +6 v. GB Away

8. CLE +9 v. PIT Away

9. STL +12 v. NO Away

10. DET +1.5 v. ARI Away

11. SF +10 v. SEA Away

12. DEN +3.5 v. KC Away

13. ATL +4 v. CAR Away

14. PHI +2.5 v. WAS Away

Initial commentary to come tomorrow, too busy at the moment. But read em and weep. A losing week coming? Perhaps!

Week 9 - Box's First Impressions - Simon Says Bet the Browns

And the box has spoken:

1. CLE -1 v. SEA @Home

2. MIN +7 v. SD @Home

3. TB -3.5 v. ARI@Home

4. ATL -3 v. SF @Home

5. DEN +3 v. DET Away

6. HOU +2 v. OAK Away

7. GB +2 v. KC Away

8. JAC +3.5 v. NO Away

9. PHI +3 v. DAL@Home

10. TEN -4 v. CAR @Home

11. NYJ +3.5 v. WAS @Home

12. BUF +1 v. CIN @Home

13. BAL +9 v. PIT Away

14. IND +5.5 v. NE @Home

Things to note: IND v. NE, the most hyped game of the last 10 years, is DEAD LAST in my averager (when averaging conviction, win percentage, and risk). Which is funny, since I thought it would be one of the TOP picks. Basically, the Box is saying this game will be SO CLOSE, that it's not even worth the risk of betting it.

That leaves me with a wacky top 5 of mediocre teams. The Box seems to love MIN, it picks them every week, and it loses every week. It also loves TB, and wins every week on TB. Or at least that's how it feels.

The Box has spoken. Kneel before it.

Week 8 - Capper's First Impressions - To Agree, or Not To Agree

OK, since I didn't get my pick in last week I am in the same predicament. Must pick my favorite winner, and go all in. I actually agreed with most of your picks this week, including WAS v NE (although I'm not crazy enough to bet this one):

MIA +9.5 v. nyg - I disagree with the box here. NYG are steamrolling teams right now and MIA looks like it wants to hide under a rock. They lost their starting QB, starting RB, and traded their #1 Wideout and TE. Zach Thomas is quoted as saying 'our defense stinks this year', Jason Taylor is quoted saying 'we are rebuilding, why is everyone afraid to say it?'. I'm considering making this my all-in pick, but the 9.5 spread is scaring me a little.

MIN +1 v. phi - You love this pick? I handicapped this game MIN +3, so I'm actually getting 2 less points than I wanted. Plus, I have a policy against betting games that involve multiple-personality teams. You just don't know which PHI team is gonna show up. It's not like they don't have the players, they are the same as last year. So why do they keep getting beat? I'm staying away.

det +5 at CHI - Agreement, but not with conviction. I handicapped this game at det +4, so I'm actually getting an extra point here, and the more I think about it there is every reason DET can win this game. I don't get the feeling CHI is ready to start rolling, they really haven't fixed any of their problems - can't run, can't stop the run, defensive injuries - BUT BUT BUT! Look what we have here! Another multiple personality team! DET regularly kills me by getting beat when they are supposed to win, and winning when they are supposed to lose. Yes, i like the big spread and think Chi is overrated but man DET scares me.

oak +7.5 at TEN - I'm agreeing with you and the box here. I handicapped the game at OAK +5, so Vegas is giving me 2.5 more points to play with. However, like you I am nervous about Young's return. TEN is home, and they seem to be a sleeper team. I don't know that they crush OAK, but I don't give the raiders a chance to pull this out. I think I'm too iffy to go all-in with this pick.

CAR +6.5 v. ind - This is the second game that I am considering for my all-in pick that goes against the box. I wouldn't bet on CAR with less than a 15 point spread - and Vegas put it at only 6.5! The Testaverde incident last week was a fluke in my opinion. Indy wins big.

cle -3 at STL - This seems to be the obvious game of the week... which makes me very very nervous. Why would the spread be so low? Surely the oddsmakers know that cleveland's offense has been putting up big points, and STL can't tie their shoelaces? What do they know that I don't? At first glance this is my #1 pick, the box agrees, you agree.... but there's something fishy going on. Every week there's one or two 'locks' that don't pan out - and for some reason Vegas knows it. Dr. Z fom SI calls this game 'the trap game' - his theory is that the oddsmakers know a lot more than anyone else, and since their goal is not to predict winners, but to get people to bet on the wrong team, every week they set a 'trap game' - by making a spread too good to be true. Dr. Z refuses to bet on these games. Similarly, Bill Simmons of espn.com page 2 says each week their is one 'obvious game' which he always bets against his gut. He doesn't blame Vegas
oddsmakers, but rather those evil gods Caprice and Whimsy. It is, of course, possible that I just need to sack up and make the bet.

CIN +3.5 v. pit - Disagreement here. CIN beating the Jets is only an indication of how low NYJ have fallen. CIN still has too many injuries, team disunity and let's not forget the steelers are gonna be pissed after losing to DEN last week. I handicapped this game at CIN +6.

buf +3 at NYJ - This also reeks of a Trap Game. Buffalo is 2-1 under their roookie QB, with the one loss being a great game vs DAL. The Jets keep finding ways to lose, and BUF already beat them once this year! You smell that? Do ya? TRAP! I'm staying far far far away from this game. My guess is with the Jets at home, Pennington playing to keep Clemens off the bench, and Mangini coaching for his life, NYJ pull an upset here.

jac +4 at TB - This is #3 that I am considering for my all-in pick despite what the box says. I hadicapped this one on the nose, but when I think about the game a bit more... Did you watch the MNF game? JAX's backup is a-w-f-u-l. I am pretty sure I saw him throw 4 incomplete passes in a row to WRs who ran hook patterns, and missed the target by 10 feet! The wideouts were standing still! I could have atleast thrown it near the guy's feet. As we noticed in week 2, TB is a real team, and even though they lost last week, Garcia's numbers are still great and they got beat by 4-2 DET. No shame in that.

hou +9 at SD - I agree with you here, but I'm not betting this game. SD doesn't even know what stadium they are playing in, but they are a hot team right now and definitely fit into the multiple personality category. FYI I handicapped it at HOU +6.

no -2.5 at SF - I handicapped this game at NO -5, so i agree with you and the box, here. NO seems to have gotten their act together, and SF looks plain awful. I am considering this game for my all-in pick. I am having trouble shaking off that foul smell from the beginning of the season though. Man, NO looked bad.

was +16 at NE - EESH. I put WAS +10 for this game, so unfortunately I am in total agreement with you. WAS has the best defense NE has faced so far, and here's a little tidbit... the last 2 games opposing running backs are AVERAGING 6 yards a carry. Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, how ya doing? Vegas is sick of NE beating spreads so they set it stupid high knowing that people would still bet on NE. Those bastards. You have to pick WAS to cover here. That is, if you are daring enough to bet this game. I am not.

gb +3 at DEN - GB had a bye week, so they've been gameplanning for two weeks. DEN is coming off a huge win vs PIT, so are they playing like they should have all along? Or was that a fluke and now they come back to earth against the 5-1 Packers? Tough to call - but I actually put GB -2 as my spread. In theory this should be an easy pick, then. However, I can't figure out these teams. DEN has a talented young QB, a strong TE, good running, decent wideouts, Dre Bly and Champ Bailey. Their weakness appears to be run defense. But wait, PIT has an awesome ground game and lost to DEN last week. And wait! GB has the 32nd ranked running game. So it's weakness vs. weakness. GBs defense is stout, so I am tempted to hang my hat on the fact that they will stop DEN's offense. BUT then again... PIT's defense is stout too! I'm gonna go look at game highlights and stats before making a call on this one...

Week 8 - Box's First Impressions - A Tidbit of Genius

This week's run down (pre ML lines):

MIA +9.5 v. NYG @Home
MIN +1 v. PHI @Home
DET +5 v. CHI Away
OAK +7.5 v. TEN Away
CAR +6.5 v. IND @Home
CLE -3 v. STL @Home
CIN +3.5 v. PIT @Home
BUF +3 v. NYJ Away
JAC +4 v. TB Away
HOU +9 v. SD Away
NO -2.5 v. SF Away
WAS +16 v. NE Away
GB +3 v. DEN Away

Initial reactions: hate the MIA pick, love the MIN pick, love the DET
pick. Unhappy with OAK, but it's possible I guess. Unlikely with
Young back in the saddle. Hate the CAR and WAS picks, IND and NE are just
unstoppable. CLE is a genius pick, the spread should be much higher
than -3 in my opinion. Though it is the return of Steven Jackson, so
that may account for the lower spread. CIN is a home dog pick, same
with CAR. The BUF v. NYJ won me money a few weeks ago, but now BUF is
at NYJ, so I don't like the pick as much. Vegas is saying it's a -6 if

BUF was at home, which is ludicrous to me. JAC is a great pick, and in

my opinion, it's the lock of the week assuming Gerrard is back (which
he's supposed to be). The IND/JAC game would have been totally
different with Gerrard in there. NO is a good pick as they seem to be
picking up steam, and GB is a great pick in my opinion, since I don't
think DEN should have beaten PIT (even though the box picked DEN last
week).

That's my quick rundown. I'm gonna lock in some bets now, including
(yes, I'm listening to the system) the WAS pick. Sigh. Goodbye
dollars.

Week 7 - Box to Try a New Strategy; Win

Ha! I would say the all in strategy could be genius, except that if I
did that on my top picks in the last two weeks, I'd be all broke.

So I went back in the system, and rather than trying to rewrite the
magic, I decided the best thing to do was simplify my betting and
concentrate on which games won BETS rather than PICKS. It seemed like
an oxymoron to me, since if I pick right, I should win the bets, but
turns out I'm picking all the wrong games and all the wrong bets (bad
lays, bad picks, high volatility, and bad parlays).

I've also decided to bet $37.75 (arbitrary number) max or 75.5% of
anything less than $50. So even if my bankroll is $200, I'm only
betting $37.75 until I'm satisfied I can win consistently. Actually,
if
I'm at $200, I'll probably just break even. Sigh.

As for this week's picks, the system took ONE favorite this week. Just

one. So it's another dog day afternoon. Now it's a matter of taking
the cream of the picks. Here's the rotation (asterisks on bets I took):
(Manny up, 2 on, 2 out - sox are killing em 7-1 right now)

They Box Picks (spread):
TEN -1 Away **
BUF 3 Home
MIA 16.5 Home
ATL 9 Away
TB 2.5 Away **
SF 9 Away
ARI 9 Away **
KC 3 Away
NYJ 6 Away
MIN 9.5 Away
STL 8.5 Away
CHI 5 Away
DEN 3.5 Home
JAC 3 Home

Money Line:
TEN
BAL
NE
NO
TB
NYG **
WAS
KC
CIN
DAL
SEA
PHI
PIT
IND

My Parlays:
ARI +9, CHI +5, ATL +9
NYG, TB, NO
ARI +9, NYG, TB, NO

Now, granted there is some duplication in my parlays. But I did a
historical parlay study now, and the payouts have been good - 6
negative
weeks in a 30 week span (so about 80% profitable), and when I win, I
usually win big (a few 200+% weeks in there). But my next step is to
work into the system some sort of algorithm to bet the "underbet" games

- basically avoid marquee matchups and play low volume bets with nicer
payouts and lower volatility. But I have no idea how to do that yet.

My confidence equals zero right now, so we'll see how this turns out.

Week 7 - First Impressions - Break the Bank

1. So what did you mean by choosing games that won bets instead of picks? I didn't really follow the difference.

2. Wow, there are a few spread box games that make me nervous:

TEN (-1) @ HOU: VY is injured. HOU has a top ten rush defense. Shaub is real.

BUF (+3) vs BAL: I actually like Trent Edwards, but their offense scores no touchdowns. BAL, i think, is reguarly overrated, but I actually think their chances go up without McNair, who sadly is just not good anymore. I handicapped this game at BUF +6 prior to looking at the Vegas spreads.

MIA (+16.5) vs NE: Betting against NE = throwing away money.

SF (+9) @ NYG: I know this is a lot of points to lay, but these teams are going in opposite directions right now and I can definitely see NYG blow out SF at home.

ARI (+9) @ WAS: Similar situation as with sf vs nyg. backup quarterback, in this case it's Tim Rattay, and teams going in opposite directions. I can see WAS blowing them out at home.

DEN (+3) vs PIT: PIT has a top rushing attack, DEN has the #31 run defense. PIT looks like a top 3 team in all phases, DEN is tripping over itself. The only thing DEN has going is that the game is at Mile High. However, Indy went there and blew them out a couple weeks ago.

3. Spread box picks that I like:

TB (+2) @ DET: DET scares me, since you never know when they are going to put up 50 points. However, I agree with you here. I handicapped this game at TB -2, so I would have actually laid two points to bet TB in this game. Seeing them as the dog makes me happy.

KC (+3) @ OAK: KC has cost me a lot of money this year, playing spoiler. I bet against them in the SD game and the MIN game. They can definitely put a game together, and although I think OAK is on the rise, that means they'll beat bad teams, not good teams. I handicapped this game at KC -2, so once again I was pretty psyched to see KC as the dog.

4. All in! So if I stick with my all-in plan, i'm gonna pick between my top 3 favorites:

PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
TB (+2) @ DET
KC (+3) @ OAK

Week 6 - Vegas Missed

Vegas really missed their spreads this week. I should have gotten back on the horse early, several of my favorites are getting hit. I can't believe you got in the NE game at -5. Wait, you bet against them? well i hate to tell you they have been sliding and after opening at -4.5 they are at -6 right now. You should check out the 'trends' section of sportsbook. tells ya what percentage of bets is being placed where.

so far i like:

1. (-3) nyg over atl
2. (-6) ne over dal
3. (-5.5) chi over min
4. (+3) was over GB
5. (+9.5) stl over bal

I think my bets are gonna be a hodge-podge this week

Week 6 - Box's First Impressions - Depression

This just in: Week 5 = terrible.

I decided to go the simple way: top 5 games against the spread. I
already placed the bets, keeping it simple. Last week, my top 5 were
2-3. The rest of my games were 1-8. Ridiculous.

So, I bet on the following:

1. OAK +9.5 @ SD
2. NO +6.5 @ SEA
3. HOU +6.5 @ JAC
4. DAL +5 v. NE
5. MIA +4.5 @ CLE

All dogs, most on the road. I expect to go a solid 0-5, but I'm
sticking with simple bets from here out. If nothing else, at least I
won't feel like I beat myself. My parlays (I did 3 last week) lost me
$15, plus the moneyline payouts aren't very good. So I'm sticking with
the spread picks that are the highest win %s.

MTB

Week 5 - Look Out World, We Agree!

Ok so we actually agreed on 8 of the 14 games this week, and my goal was to make sure I got most of them into my top 9, so they make it into my parlays. I kept my top 3 games in their slots, since you agreed with a fairly high win %. In case your curious, the games in caps are those we agreed on, those in lower case are ones i substituted my pick over the box, and those with an *asterick are ones I went with the box over my initial pick.

1 GB -3 v. CHI (5)

2 TB +10 v. IND (4)

3 ARI -3 @ STL (6)

4 DET +3.5 @ WAS (2)

5 SEA +6 @ PIT (8)

6 dal -10 over buf (9)

7 nyg -3 over nyj (12)

8 *NO -3 over CAR (3)

9 ATL +8 over TEN (1)

10 *KC +2 over JAX (7)

11 MIA +5.5 @ HOU (11)

12 sd over den (13)

13 ne over cle (10)

14 *BAL -3 @ SF

So of the games we disagree on, here are my comments:


6 dal -10 over buf (9): I think you should reconsider this one, although it's your #9, so you probably won't bet it. You like buffalo because dallas has unexposed flaws, and because buf is a home dog. I say Dallas has no flaws that Buffalo is going to exploit. This reminds me of the NE vs BUF game last week, where the big spread is a little alarming, but in the end you need to keep in mind that the top teams are destroying the little teams, not barely squeaking by. Buf still has no defense, so it's weakness vs strength there.


7 nyg -3 over nyj (12) : The Jets, the Chargers, and the Saints are the three teams this year who, like you said, I keep waiting to suddenly "show up". Hence I am not that cofident about this game. However, the Jets haven't proven anything yet, and are coming off a terrible loss vs. buffalo. On the other hand the Giants are hot right now, coming off two big wins vs. WAS and PHI.


8 *NO -3 over CAR (3): So you think the Saints are gonna "show up" this week, eh? I'm switching my pick for you buddy. I like CAR because of what I said Monday - strong running game, and big play threat from S. Smith is a Strength against NO's lack of run defense and propensity to get beat with the long ball. DelHomme being out definitely plays into NO's hand, so I can see that. Plus the 2 weeks of gameplanning, reflection and time to get on track. Plus their home. It's go time for Reggie Bush. He can't be the clever trick play guy anymore since Deuce "2nd round fantasy bust" McAllister is gone for the year.


10 *KC +2 over JAX (7): I can see this game going either way. I am not even sure why I picked JAX the first time... mainly because KC hasn't beaten anyone that hasn't hurt themselves yet I suppose. Anyway, this is your #7, KC's at home, they are on a winning streak... I'm with you, buddy.


12 sd over den (13): Yeah this is my version of the "show up" game. You know what I'm gonna say, so I'll just leave it be.


13 ne over cle (10): You said it - bettng against NE is throwing money away.


14 *BAL -3 @ SF: I anti-heart this game and am staying miles away. You like Baltimore? fine you talked me into it.

...coming soon! the new betting strategy...

TMC