Week 10 - Dreaming of Upsets

The spreads are very interesting this week... potentials for moneyline, straight-wagers, teasers, and parlays. Here's what I'm seeing:

1. Den (-3.5) @ WAS, +160/-180: Whhaa? Denver loses to a very good PIT and suddenly is only 3.5 favorites against the imploding Redskins? All the way in on this one. Denver has no injury problems, no drama, and no reason not to win this game comfortably. This game could provoke my first parlay of the year, and I'll definitely find a teaser to use.

Recommendation: Den -180, Den -3.5, Den +2.5 (Teaser)

2. CIN (+7) @ PIT, +260/-320: OK, so PIT looked really good Monday Night, and they are on a roll. I can't help but notice they live on turnovers, though, and rely offensively on the passing game. CIN is quietly playing excellent D, and they've drafted #1 corners twice in the past 5 years who are both starting and playing lights-out. Carson looks great, Ochocinco is back to old form, and they suddenly have a running game with C. Benson... My point? Huuuuge opportunity for upset here, if you have the stones. Cincy is getting a touchdown, and on the moneyline, you get more than double your money. Plus, make this a teaser and suddenly you're at CIN +13!

Recommendation: CIN +260, CIN +7, CIN +13 (Teaser)

3. NO (-13.5) @ STL: I don't remember exactly, but I think in 2007 NE was getting spreads over 20. This is where this game should be. You can bet this straight, or even better - tie it in with a teaser. You think STL stays within 7.5 points? Me either.

Recommendation: NO - 7.5 (Teaser)

4. NE (+3) @ IND, +125/-145: You NEVER see NE as the 'dog, it's almost freaky. I know the Colts are 8-0, but I don't see them beating tough opponents, and their injuries keep coming. Bob Sanders is out (as usual), and both corners are gone. Pretty much all that's left is to double-up Freeney and it could be bombs away for Brady. The Pats lost their two games early on when Brady seemed to have mechanic issues and timing problems, but the last 3 weeks he's looked back to form. The deep ball has been there (see one-handed grab by Moss last week), Welker's healthy and they're using Watson as the 3rd option effectively. Defensively, the Pats looked vulnerable when Mayo was out, but he's back The secondary has been questionable because of the youth - but they've improved and the highly touted rookies have been playing their way into significant roles. Basically I see a great game, but I think New England has the edge here. Throw them in a teaser and you've got a 9 point cushion.

Recommendation: NE +125, NE +3, NE +9 (Teaser)

5. Bal (-10.5) @ CLE: This is a classic teaser game for me. Nobody doubts Baltimore is gonna win this game, but a 10.5 point spread is kinda big and feels risky. Knock 6 points off and you're down to -4.5, and feel peachy about it.

Recommendation: Bal -4.5 (Teaser)

I'm the Mongoose to your Cobra: Madcapping Week 7!

I must admit, my ego is severely bruised right now. I'm way down on the year, and need to get on a winning streak. Further complicating things were the Week 6 results. So many upsets... Anyway, here's how I see Week 7 shaking out....

tn (-9) @ KC: TN's coming off their bye week, they are 5-0 with no major injuries. KC is suspending Larry Johnson for the week. Is it possible KC is throwing the season? Screw Arrowhead, TN pounds them.

Madcapping: TN 24 - KC 6
Confidence: 80%


sd (PICK) @ BUF: After SD's drubbing ov NE (sooooo glad i resisted the urge to pick the upset) last week, this now looks like the game of the week. BUF is coming off their bye, and has the early game at home vs. a West Coat team. All signs point to Buffalo, but I was at the SD game last week, my friends. SD showed off its deep passing game and I'm not so sure BUF has anyone in their secondary to stop it.

Madcapping: SD 27 - BUF 21
Confidence: 50%


pit (-9.5) @ CIN: I still am not over how well B Roth played two SundayNights ago. Phenomenal effort to beat that tough JAX team. CIN played Dallas tough, but I keep hearing Carson is hurt, and I even heard his WRs are asking him to sit out. I don't know if you've watched Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it ain't pretty, and neither will this game.

Madcapping: PIT 21 - CIN 9
Confidence: 70%


bal (+3) @ MIA: Dolphins were dogs last week against Houston... and lost. Now they are favorites against Baltimore? Maybe if I keep losing my bookie will just pay me anyway? Weird thing is... I totally agree. I like MIA to win at home. J Porter is having a ferocious year, nobody's solved 'the wildcat' yet, and I like Pennington a lot more than Flacco.

Madcapping: BAL 17 - MIA 21
Confidence: 65%


min (+3) @ CHI: CHI should have lost that game before they should have won it, but they lost anyway. Make sense? Watch the highlights on NFL.com, it was an insane game. So what about MIN... You got me.... Berrian Sucks, Frerrotte is ok, Peterson is good, but won't CHI just stack the box?

Madcapping: MIN 13 - CHI 16
Confidence: 50%


no (+3) @ CAR: As I explained last week, CAR is my abusive boyfriend. I played it smart last week and stayed away from them (They promptly got their asses handed to them by Gaycia, I mean Geighcia). So basically that means they get rocked this week by NO, who seem unstoppable on offense, right? This is a frickin tease game, I want to put it on the line for the Saints, but CAR is equally capable of showing up and winning, so what do i know...

Madcapping: NO 33 - CAR 28
Confidence: 50%


sf (-10.5) @ NYG: The Giants fell asleep at the wheel last week. Do not forget this team is bad-ass. They have a West Coast team coming to visit, all signs point to an annihilation. The spreads a little hefty, but still could be worth it.

Madcapping: SF 10 - NYG 30
Confidence: 75%


det (+9) @ HOU: DET is so bad they are 9 point dogs to 1 Win Houston! Aye aye. I didn't see it but i heard the new QB stepped out of bounds for a safety at one point last week. Houston gets its second win this week, but can they do more than 9? uh oh... smells like a teaser.

Madcapping: DET 9 - HOU 20
Confidence: 75%


NYJ (-3) @ OAK: The J-E-T-S have been playing well enough to beat weak teams, and OAK is definitely that. With only a field goal spread, i really like the Favres this week.

Madcapping: NYJ 24 - OAK 17
Confidence: 80%


cle (+7.5) @ WAS: Hey, wouldn't it be cool if CLE was suddenly back and took down the Skins one week after shocking the Giants? Only problem is that the Giants had a sloppy away game after cruising to victories game after game. WAS is at home, and they are coming off a loss of their own (to STL, pew). I'd like to see CLE win, but won't bet on it.

Madcapping: CLE 17 - WAS 19
Confidence: 50%


ind (-1) @ GB: I was wrong, this is the game of the week. Both good teams with too many losses already. GB has not been performing well lately though, so I'm giving this one to Indy.

Madcapping: IND 24 - GB 21
Confidence: 60%


sea (+10.5) @ TB: Suddenly Tampa's a rockstar team, eh? 10.5 is a big spread, but SEA's done all of nothing to warrant betting with them.

Madcapping: SEA 15 - TB 20
Confidence: 60%


den (+3) @ NE: So apparently all NE had to do to be favored was get creamed but a 2-3 team. Sometimes I don't get this whole thing. Here's my concern... SD went long ball over and over... and yes, over again last week. DEN has one of the top passing attacks in the league. Eddie Royal is out and I can't name the Broncos starting RB....

Madcapping: DEN 30 - NE 28
Confidence: 60%

Final picks tomorrow!

Back on the Horse - Week 4 Madcapping

Sorry I've been AWOL this week, the job that actually pays had me pretty tied up. So after last week's rotten performance, it's back on the horse this week. I'm very tempted to find two or three bets I like most and screw diversification. With the unpredictability of the NFL, this may actually work out better. Let's take a look at the matchups:

	GB	(+1) @ TB

...So let me get this straight: GB loses to DAllas like everyone else and they are 'dogs against the Bucs? Al Harris is out for a while, and TB beat CHI in OT last week, bu t I just don't see it. GB was a force in Weeks 1-3, and they still are.

Madcapping: GB 23 - TB 19
Confidence: 80%

ARI	(+1.5) @ NYJ

...I need to resist the urge to outsmart myself here. Reality is both these teams are unreliable, and anything could happen. Personally I like the Jets. They need the win more, and they are home against a team from the West. An often overlooked fact is that teams that travel cross country have a terrible record. Travel time and jet lag matter.

Madcapping: ARI 20 - NYJ 23
Confidence: 60%

ATL (+7)	@ CAR

...CAR lost its first game last week at MIN, and I am betting they are out for blood this week. ATL is 2-1, but their wins are against KC and DET. I love CAR to win this game, but the spread is high enough to raise concerns. The Moneyline and Teaser Bets should make this game more worthwhile.

Madcapping: ATL 9 - CAR 19
Confidence: 70%

SF	(+5.5) @ NO

...Very very interesting matchup. Normally I would say NO is going to blow out SF due to their offensive power, but #1 receiver Colston is out injured, as is TE Shockey. McCallister hasn't played yet due to injuries either. I've been touting the new SF QB O'Sullivan, for a couple weeks now, so it may just be time to put my money where my mouth is.

Madcapping: SF 20 - NO 19
Confidence: 70%

TEN	(-3) v. MIN

...Well MIN beat CAR last week and completely screwed me, so the question is will they beat arguably the AFC's toughest team on their turf? I think not. TN's Defense has proven itself to be stout, and I don't see MIN having enough firepower to score many points. TEN's ground game has been very effective, so I see this as a ball-control low scoring game. The TEN-3 spread makes this a difficult bet, though. I recommend staying away.

Madcapping: TN 14 - MIN 13
Confidence: NONE.

BUF	(-8) @ STL

...BUF is getting some serious credibility now, and against a terrible STL team this spread is certainly justifiable, but I just don't like betting on spreads this high. BUF in a teaser makes a lot of sense, so that's my call.

Madcapping: BUF 24 - STL 10
Confidence: 90% (6 point Teaser)

DEN	(-10) @ KC

...DEN's offense has been damn impressive, and KC has looked awful. KC is going back to Huard, which should keep this game closer than it otherwise would be, they are home in Arrowhead, and DEN hasn't shown much defensively. I like Denver to cover, but it's risky. Could be a good Teaser option, though.

Madcapping: DEN 30 - KC 20
Confidence: 80% (6 point Teaser)

WAS	(+11) @ DAL

...Betting against DAL this year is like betting against NE. They are gonna get huge spreads, but they are absolutely capable of blowing them up. Other than a Teaser, I'd stay away.

Madcapping: WAS 17 - DAL 27
Confidence: 80% (6 point Teaser)

CLE	(+3.5) @ CIN

...I think this game is a huge overreaction to CLE's losses to 3 tough teams and Cincy's playing NYG tough last week. The browns have cost me 3 weeks in a row, but I am tupid enough to stick with them one more week. I'd take the moneyline bet here and run.

Madcapping: CLE 24 - CIN 20
Confidence: 70%

OAK	(+9) v. SD

...So is Kiffin fired or not? It doesn't matter. This game is a matter of how badly will SD win. I like them to cover and I like them in a Teaser.

Madcapping: SD 30 - OAK 9
Confidence: 80%

JAC (-7.5)	v. HOU

...JAC got off to a rocky start with a banged up interior O-Line, but beat IND last week. HOU has not looked good offensively, so I think Vegas has set a very reasonable spread here. Could be another good Teaser Bet.

Madcapping: JAC 22 - HOU 14
Confidence: 80%

Like a Grizzly Duels a Silverback: Capper vs. Vegas Week 3!

Vegas threw some heavy punches with their spreads this week. I have to say I am impressed, they make it very difficult to bet on the top teams, and make it risky to bet on the underdogs. Well done, chaps, well done...

Chiefs(KansasCity)	+190		+5
Falcons(Atlanta)	-230		-5
- I capped this game at ATL -1, so in theory I should go with KC, but how confident am I that KC stays within 2 field goals? Not at all. By the way Thigpen something or other is the new QB for KC. I'm absolutely staying away from this game. MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Raiders(Oakland)	+380		+9.5
Bills(Buffalo)	-480		-9.5
- I capped this game at Buf -7, so once again if I were to stick to my guns I'd have to pick the underdog. This is absolutely what I warned about yesterday - Vegas is over-reacting with big spreads to BUF's new-found success. I am confident BUF wins this game, so I would take them in a teaser, but not not straight-up giving up 9.5 points: MadCapper's Pick: BUF +3.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Texans(Houston)	+180		+5
Titans(Tennessee)	-220		-5
- I was giving TN 4 points, so I am pretty much in agreement with Vegas here. HOU is still sort of an unknown since Ike forced a bye last week, but TN has really shown it is tough on defense and can run the ball effectively. I like them to win at home, once again I say Teaser: MadCapper's Pick: TN +1 (6-point Teaser)) Confidence Level: 90%
Bengals(Cincinnati)	+625		+13.5
Giants(NewYork)	-850		-13.5
- Everyone is counting on this being a blowout, and the spread reflects this. Will NYG will by 13? 14? 10? 20? Predicting margins like this is unhealthy, so I say stay away. MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Cardinals(Arizona)	+150		+3 (-105)
Redskins(Washington)	-170		-3 (-115)
- I hit the nail on the head here with WAS -3. This is a risky game to me, despite ARI's "consistency" beating very weak teams to go 2-0. I'd say go with a Moneyline +150 wager and try to catch the bonus money, or swing a Teaser to make it ARI +9: MadCapper's Pick: ARI +9 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 60%
Dolphins(Miami)	+600		+12.5
Patriots(NewEngland)	-800		-12.5
- Wow! What difference a week makes, eh? NE wins a game against lowly KC, and MIA gets blown out by a high-powered offense and suddenly NE is a huge favorite? I absolutely think NE wins this game, but continues with their circa 2001 field position and ball control game plan. Can they win by 13? Sure! Is it a safe bet? Hell no... The Moneyline at -800 is worthless, and a Teaser only gets you down to -6.5: MadCapper's Pick: NE -6.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 60%
Buccaneers(TampaBay)	+130		+3
Bears(Chicago)	-150		-3
- Again Vegas and I slap five and give it at CHI -3. The box seems to love TB as an upset pick here, but I don't think so. TB lost to a suspect NO, beat a weak ATL and their starting QB is out injured. CHI upset Indy and hung tight with CAR to the end. I like CHI as a Moneyline pick, here, trading 3 points for a 2:3 payout: MadCapper's Pick: CHI -150 Confidence Level: 70%
Panthers(Carolina)	+170		+3.5
Vikings(Minnesota)	-200		-3.5
- Why is MIN still favored after going 0-2 and benching their starting QB you ask? NO CLUE! This is one of my picks of the week, I cap this at CAR -2, so I feel like I'm getting bonus money on the Moneyline, plus 5.5 more points than I need. Hell, I might even do a teaser to make it CAR +9.5, too! Do you really think MIN blows CAR out? MadCapper's Pick: CAR +3.5, CAR +170, CAR +9.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Rams(StLouis)	+380		+9.5
Seahawks(Seattle)	-480		-9.5
- eck. In other news, I tried a Bulgarian wine last night ("No Man's Land"). Apparently the vines grew into maturity along the Iron Curtain during the Cold War. Definitely drinkable, but tasted as cheap as it was ($4.99). MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Lions(Detroit)	+170		+4
49ers(SanFrancisco)	-200		-4
- Whoa ho ho.... Apparently someone else WAS watching JT O'Sullivan last week. As I mentioned yesterday, I am now a fan of Martz's new student, but I really didn't expect to see SF favored, let alone by so many. What jumps out at me is a Teaser gives DET +10. If SF wins this game, they are going to have to outgun Kitna, C. Johnson, and R. Williams. I don't see them winning by that many, if at all: MadCapper's Pick: DET +10 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Saints(NewOrleans)	+190		+5.5
Broncos(Denver)	-230		-5.5
- I really like DEN at home this week. I may even be willing to pay the terrible DEN -230 Moneyline. A teaser makes it basically straight up: MadCapper's Pick: DEN -230, DEN +0.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 80%
Steelers(Pittsburgh)	+165		+3 (+105)
Eagles(Philadelphia)	-190		-3 (-125)
- I like Philly by 6, so I like them in all sorts of bets this week: MadCapper's Pick: PHI -3, PHI -190, PHI+3 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 70%
Jaguars(Jacksonville)	+190		+5.5
Colts(Indianapolis)	-230		-5.5
- JAX traditionally matches up well with IND, so it's tempting to go with them and the points... but nah, too risky: MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Browns(Cleveland)	+120		+2
Ravens(Baltimore)	-140		-2
- This is my 2nd upside-down game of the week. I MadCap this game at CLE -2, so I'm looking at the Moneyline bonus payouts, the Teaser, and maybe in a parlay with the 2 points: MadCapper's Pick: CLE +120, CLE +2, CLE +8 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 70%
Cowboys(Dallas)	-165		-3 (-120)
Packers(GreenBay)	+145		+3 (even)
- GB finally got some respect this week. This is exactly like last week's game vs. PHI.... only DAL is not at home, but at Lambeau. Predicting the score of this game is nearly impossible, so I'd say if you're gonna bet it, nail the Moneyline with GB and hope for the bonus payout: MadCapper's Pick: GB+145 Confidence Level: 60% New York Jets +335 +9 San Diego Chargers -430 -9 - Wow I am having some technical difficulties with the formatting, but the point is SD definitely wins this game. The SD-3 Teaser is also a nice option here.
MadCapper's Pick: SD -3 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 80%

MADCAPPING WEEK 2

The lines are in, so it's time for my weekly recommendations... I love the beginning of the season, there's so much uknown, leading to lots of opportunities for betting the 'dogs. The other thing to look for is an overreaction to Week 1 results. Let's get this thing started:

	191	Oakland Raiders	+3½
	192	Kansas City Chiefs	-3½

... Two main thoughts here: (1) KC's offense actually moved the ball fairly well against NE. Tony Gonzalez remains a beast, as does Larry Johnson. I like Damon Huard more than Brodie Croyle so I think they get an upgrade by injury at the QB position. Oakland's defense was shredded Monday Night, and their offense looked inept. Both are week teams, so it could go either way, but I like the Chiefs at home by 4.

Pick = KC Chiefs
Mad Capping = KC 14 - oak 10
Confidence Level = 60%

	193	Tennessee Titans	+1
	194	Cincinnati Bengals	-1

... The Bengals scare me a little bit. Their organization is still a mess, but they have the firepower to just explode at any moment. TN beat a very good JAX team last week, while CIN got manhandled by BAL. This is another game that I think the backup might be an improvement at the QB position. I never liked Vince Young, so I'm not worried about him on the bench. The spread is razor-thin, but I like the Titans on the road.

Pick = TN Titans
Mad Capping = tn 19 - CIN 17
Confidence Level = 60%

	195	Indianapolis Colts	-2½
	196	Minnesota Vikings	+2½

... Both teams lost week 1 unexpectedly, so how to cap this game? I'm calling this the first over-reaction spread of our list. Indy goes into MIN and creams this over-rated team, and with such a low spread I'm confident Indy covers.

Pick = IND Colts
Mad Capping = ind 40 - MIN 13
Confidence Level = 70%

	197	New Orleans Saints	-1 (-115)
	198	Washington Redskins	+1 (-105)

... I'm definitely down on WAS. I hate organizations that change offensive coordinators every year, especially with unproven young QBs. On the other hand, NO is completely unreliable, Marques Colton is injured, and this is a home 'dog situation.

Pick = NO Saints
Mad Capping = no 23 - WAS 17
Confidence Level = 70%

	199	Green Bay Packers	-3 (-115)
	200	Detroit Lions	+3 (-105)

... Did Vegas SEE how bad DET looked? What the hell is going on here? This seems like such a gimme it makes me nervous, but I'm sticking to my guns for now. Packers by 10.

Pick = GB Packers
Mad Capping = gb 20 - DET10
Confidence Level = 90%

	201	Chicago Bears +3
	202	Carolina Panthers -3

... Ahhhh a game that requires a crystal ball! Both teams were terrible last year, and both teams came up with upsets last week. I have to admit the Bears was more impressive (against the Colts), but CAR winning in SD is also an accomplishment. It's very tempting to go with the Bears and take the points, here... but I'm not gonna do do it. Give me the Panthers at home by 6.

Pick = CAR Panthers
Mad Capping = CAR 16 - chi 10
Confidence Level = 60%

	203	New York Giants	-9 (-105)
	204	St. Louis Rams	+9 (-115)

... This reminds me of betting on NE last year. There's no doubt about the outcome, it's just a matter of how badly will they beat their opponent. STL looked awful vs. PHI last week, and I just don't see them keeping up with the Giants either. I'm staying away from this bet due to the large spread, but I'd take the Giants by 14.

Pick = NY Giants
Mad Capping = nyg 24 - STL 10
Confidence Level = 70%

	205	Buffalo Bills	+5½
	206	Jacksonville Jaguars	-5½

... I like a big upset for Buf this week. JAX has lost 3 starting offensive linemen and 1 of their backups. This means they are going to struggle offensively, and I like BUF's young O to score some points. Even if JAX pulls out a win, no way it's more than a field goal.

Pick = BUF Bills
Mad Capping = buf 21 - JAX 20
Confidence Level = 80%

	207	Atlanta Falcons		+7
	208	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		-7

... This is definitely NOT an over-reaction to last week. ATL looked dangerous last week in crushing DET, and TB lost to a decent NO team. Garcia is injured, and TB still has a 7 point spread. The question is whether ATL's running attack can duplicate last week's performance, and keep the game within 7, or even upset. I think they do.

Pick = ATL Falcons
Mad Capping = TB 21 - atl 16
Confidence Level = 50%

	209	San Francisco 49ers	+7
	210	Seattle Seahawks	-7

... SEA is a team with injury issues at WR (read: top 4 WRs are injured), and SF is just really bad. I hate this game, I refuse to bet it.

Pick = SEA Seahawks
Mad Capping = SEA 24 - sf 7
Confidence Level = 20%

	211	Miami Dolphins	+7 (-120)
	212	Arizona Cardinals	-7 (EVEN)

... So is MIA better than we thought, barely losing to NYJ? Or are the Jets not as good as we think? Either way, is it ever a good idea to bet ARI giving 7 points? Probably not. Also notice that there is zero juice on the ARI bet, so the house only takes money if they can't cover. When the bookies want you to bet one way, you gotta go the other.

Pick = MIA Dolphins
Mad Capping = ARI 16 - mia 13
Confidence Level = 70%

	213	New England Patriots	+1½
	214	New York Jets	-1½

... Seeing this spread makes me feel like a genious. Earler this week I called for betting NE whenever they are dogs, because they are going to win a lot of close games. The line shifted 1/2 point, which is unfortunate, but I still love NE to upset this week.

Pick = NE Patriots
Mad Capping = ne 17 - NYJ 16
Confidence Level = 90%

	215	Baltimore Ravens	+4½
	216	Houston Texans	-4½

... So BAL beats Cincy and HOU gets slammed by PIT, and they HOU is the favorite here? Shaub is getting Carr'ed and he's going up againt the always impressive BAL defense this week. On the other hand, BAL's offense has basically nothing. Troy Smith makes his first start, McGahee is hurt and I can't name one WR or TE on their team. Yeah I hate this game. I'm not betting it.

	217	San Diego Chargers	-1½
	218	Denver Broncos	+1½

... Should be a great game. Cutler-to-Royale looked like Steve Young and Jerry Rice last week, and SD remains a powerhouse. I'd love to give this to Denver as a home 'dog, but with such a low spread, I'm sticking with the Chargers. I'm guessing it stays relatively close until Tomlinson puts it away late in the 4th quarter.

Pick = SD Chargers
Mad Capping = sd 28 - DEN16
Confidence Level = 80%

	219	Pittsburgh Steelers	-6
	220	Cleveland Browns	+6

... I definitely agree that PIT wins this game big. In fact way bigger than two field goals. I'm calling out the Browns as over-rated early on, PIT smokes them.

Pick = PIT Steelers
Mad Capping = pit 30 - CLE 10
Confidence Level = 90%

Philadelphia Eagles	+7 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys	-7 (-105)

... Probably the game fo the week, I'm psyched it's the Monday Nighter. Seven points is a big spread in gambling terms, but really only 1 score in actuality. Both teams looked impressive, but I like the points in a game that could go either way.

Pick = PHI Eagles
Mad Capping = DAL 30 - phi 24
Confidence Level = 50%