So it's been a while, and after placing some ludicrous but fun bets on Week 17 (and getting my ass handed to me in the process), I've abstained from all post season betting. Why? Because a.) I have zero historical data on which to base my guesses, and b.) anything can happen. I can pretty much guess that the Box would pick almost every underdog, too, but I still have no way to no. I have created no postseason module. That may be something to start for next season.
Overall, I would have to say it was a successful trial year. I lost a marginal amount of cash in what amounted to an oddly disproportionate favorite-covering year, so assuming over time things revert to the mean (where underdogs have a very slight advantage), I feel like I'm on the right track. The Box is now able to pick based on "cost per bet", a feature added very late in the season and perfected in Week 15 or 16, so my expectations will be high next year for some serious cash flow.
I will post results here in the morning, but for now, I wanted to bid a farewell to anyone who read this regularly - I assume me and the Capper, and maybe occasionally my wife - and I look forward to next season. Keep us on the RSS feeds, we may post a bit over the post season and off season just as updates happen and the betting styles are honed. With a few seasons data under my belt, it will be easier to run back tests and improve my stats hopefully. So check back for a full end of season review soon, for now, ta ta!
Showing posts with label week 17. Show all posts
Showing posts with label week 17. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Friday, December 28, 2007
Week 17 - The Gambling Power Rankings
These rankings match a team's performance to their statistically expected performance. They weight Sharpe and Alpha to come up with these power rankings:
Here is the financial breakdown:
If you want to know how a specific game breaks down, email me at matt dot moscardi at gmail dot com. Here's a sample of this week's marquee games, the Giants/NE and Dallas/Was (the favorite is the bottom team):
Now, I take issue with my own power rankings. There is no way San Diego is a better or more consistent team than Jacksonville this year, in my opinion. Nor do I agree that a scrappy Buffalo team and a good-but-not-great Cleveland team are 27th and 25th respectively. But if I go over the numbers, it would make sense based on the way I've figured these statistics.
They way they calculate now, it's showing the ranking as teams that consistently crush the spread down to teams that consistently get crushed. Despite Buffalo being 9-6 ATS this year, when they lose, they lose big. Take the 56-10 drubbing they took against New England earlier this year. Combine that with a few more big losses to the Steelers, NE earlier in the season, and Jacksonville, and no matter how much they eek by the rest of the season, their consistency is pure shite.
Cleveland, on the other hand, is a bit of an odd duck. They are helped by Alpha, ranking in the top half of the league, but it's still not enough to prop them up in terms of Sharpe. My problem is I can't quite explain why yet. They had a fairly bumpy start with that ridiculous loss to Pittsburgh in week 1, and a helluva win in week 4 against the Ravens, but other than those two blips, they have been a middling team in terms of spread performances. They win more than they lose, but they never win big. So why the crummy Sharpe?
Well, my only explanation is in how they perform against how the are supposed to perform as predicted by the statistics at Football Outsiders and the Box. Cleveland has both fallen short of expectations and outplayed themselves. To the point where the Box basically says, "screw you guys" and throws them deep into the "middle basement" reserved for only the most schizophrenic of teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Washington, Houston, Denver, Tennessee... who are you guys really?
I don't know and I don't care, as long as I make the big bucks. Check back again tomorrow, because the best bets are in, and this week I got ridiculous and had fun. Why not? It's the last week of the season!!
| The Gamblers' | ||
| Power Rankings | ||
| 1 | NE | |
| 2 | IND | |
| 3 | DAL | |
| 4 | SD | |
| 5 | PIT | |
| 6 | NO | ▲1 |
| 7 | SEA | ▲1 |
| 8 | CHI | ▼2 |
| 9 | JAC | |
| 10 | NYG | |
| 11 | GB | ▲2 |
| 12 | PHI | |
| 13 | CIN | ▼2 |
| 14 | DEN | |
| 15 | TEN | |
| 16 | ARI | ▲3 |
| 17 | MIN | |
| 18 | DET | ▲2 |
| 19 | WAS | ▼3 |
| 20 | TB | ▲4 |
| 21 | HOU | ▲2 |
| 22 | CAR | ▼4 |
| 23 | STL | ▼1 |
| 24 | BAL | ▼3 |
| 25 | CLE | |
| 26 | SF | |
| 27 | BUF | ▲1 |
| 28 | OAK | ▼1 |
| 29 | NYJ | |
| 30 | KC | |
| 31 | ATL | |
| 32 | MIA | |
Here is the financial breakdown:
| Sharpe | Alpha | Beta | |
| Team | Rank | Rank | Rank |
| ARI | 16 | 14 | 9 |
| ATL | 31 | 27 | 20 |
| BAL | 24 | 21 | 7 |
| BUF | 28 | 25 | 32 |
| CAR | 18 | 30 | 12 |
| CHI | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| CIN | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| CLE | 26 | 15 | 24 |
| DAL | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| DEN | 13 | 23 | 29 |
| DET | 19 | 19 | 27 |
| GB | 11 | 10 | 17 |
| HOU | 22 | 18 | 22 |
| IND | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| JAC | 9 | 6 | 31 |
| KC | 30 | 28 | 4 |
| MIA | 32 | 29 | 2 |
| MIN | 20 | 16 | 19 |
| NE | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| NO | 7 | 5 | 15 |
| NYG | 10 | 11 | 18 |
| NYJ | 29 | 24 | 10 |
| OAK | 27 | 32 | 26 |
| PHI | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| PIT | 4 | 8 | 21 |
| SD | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| SEA | 6 | 13 | 30 |
| SF | 25 | 31 | 13 |
| STL | 23 | 22 | 25 |
| TB | 17 | 26 | 28 |
| TEN | 15 | 17 | 5 |
| WAS | 21 | 20 | 23 |
If you want to know how a specific game breaks down, email me at matt dot moscardi at gmail dot com. Here's a sample of this week's marquee games, the Giants/NE and Dallas/Was (the favorite is the bottom team):
| Sharpe + Alpha | Financial Pick | ||
| NYG | 7.34% | Diff: | 7.89% |
| NE | 15.22% | Adv: | NE |
| Sharpe + Alpha | Financial Pick | ||
| DAL | 12.04% | Diff: | -6.83% |
| WAS | 5.20% | Adv: | DAL |
Now, I take issue with my own power rankings. There is no way San Diego is a better or more consistent team than Jacksonville this year, in my opinion. Nor do I agree that a scrappy Buffalo team and a good-but-not-great Cleveland team are 27th and 25th respectively. But if I go over the numbers, it would make sense based on the way I've figured these statistics.
They way they calculate now, it's showing the ranking as teams that consistently crush the spread down to teams that consistently get crushed. Despite Buffalo being 9-6 ATS this year, when they lose, they lose big. Take the 56-10 drubbing they took against New England earlier this year. Combine that with a few more big losses to the Steelers, NE earlier in the season, and Jacksonville, and no matter how much they eek by the rest of the season, their consistency is pure shite.
Cleveland, on the other hand, is a bit of an odd duck. They are helped by Alpha, ranking in the top half of the league, but it's still not enough to prop them up in terms of Sharpe. My problem is I can't quite explain why yet. They had a fairly bumpy start with that ridiculous loss to Pittsburgh in week 1, and a helluva win in week 4 against the Ravens, but other than those two blips, they have been a middling team in terms of spread performances. They win more than they lose, but they never win big. So why the crummy Sharpe?
Well, my only explanation is in how they perform against how the are supposed to perform as predicted by the statistics at Football Outsiders and the Box. Cleveland has both fallen short of expectations and outplayed themselves. To the point where the Box basically says, "screw you guys" and throws them deep into the "middle basement" reserved for only the most schizophrenic of teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Washington, Houston, Denver, Tennessee... who are you guys really?
I don't know and I don't care, as long as I make the big bucks. Check back again tomorrow, because the best bets are in, and this week I got ridiculous and had fun. Why not? It's the last week of the season!!
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Week 17 - Moneyline Seems to Be Money
I bet some uncharacteristic moneyline bets last week - only teams that paid out positive dollars. Did it work? Well, my $5 bet on Chicago to upset Green Bay paid me a solid $15 or so, negating any other moneyline losses I took. Worth it?
I'm not sure.
This week, the picks are in, and I may do some of the same maneuvering:
My top 3 picks are all in the money picks. I like betting the upset, but this week is pretty unpredictable. I'm not sure what I'm doing yet, but I do know I'm not risking big dollars in the last week - I'll try to keep it a respectable showing and not lose big on a choppy week 17.
I'm not sure.
This week, the picks are in, and I may do some of the same maneuvering:
| THE PICKS |
| * considers lay in pick order |
| 1. CHI +130 v. NO @Home |
| 2. TB +145 v. CAR @Home |
| 3. SEA +145 v. ATL Away |
| 4. CIN -145 v. MIA @Home |
| 5. IND +280 v. TEN @Home |
| 6. DEN +190 v. MIN @Home |
| 7. PIT -200 v. BAL @Home |
| 8. GB -210 v. DET Away |
| 9. JAC +280 v. HOU Away |
| 10. NYJ -270 v. KC Away |
| 11. SD -370 v. OAK @Home |
| 12. PHI -340 v. BUF Away |
| 13. DAL +430 v. WAS Away |
| 14. ARI -260 v. STL Away |
My top 3 picks are all in the money picks. I like betting the upset, but this week is pretty unpredictable. I'm not sure what I'm doing yet, but I do know I'm not risking big dollars in the last week - I'll try to keep it a respectable showing and not lose big on a choppy week 17.
Week 17 - Wacky Week 17 Best Bets
Vegas has gone nuts. Abso-frikkin-nuts. Indy +6.5 at home against Tennessee? Just because the Titans need the win? Really? I think Tom Moore could suit up and receive passes from Sorgi and they could STILL beat the Titans this week. Don't forget, while the marquee players only play for a quarter or two, the real money players on the front lines almost never sit. That means even when they run with Kenton Keith, Indy will be running behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, no matter what Albert Haynesworth is doing.
Jacksonville +6? Seattle +2.5? And, on the flip side, Cleveland -9???? Giving nine points? Since Week 8, all but one of their games have been settled by less than 9. The one "blowout" win? They beat Houston by 10 in week 12. How likely is it that they win by 9 at this point? I would say pretty freaking unlikely. And so would the box.
Here are the early picks:
I like that one-two punch in Seattle and TB - TB coming off an embarrassing loss (that won me some $s last week) and Seattle coming off an even more embarrassing loss, despite not needing the W at all.
I know the Colts and Cowboys are lower conviction picks, but I can't help be drawn to those games that clearly feel like they were handicapped to reflect public sentiment more than team performance. Week 17 is an excellent week for arbitrage I think, as the "who will play" frenzy that factors into the spreads is often overwrought. In fact, if the Box were Vegas and ignored the statistics, here's how it would have handicapped this week:
There are some giant shifts there - owing entirely to public sentiment. If the spread was like the stock market, this is a nice bear market chance to make some money on quality teams that are undervalued because of mob mentality.
Jacksonville +6? Seattle +2.5? And, on the flip side, Cleveland -9???? Giving nine points? Since Week 8, all but one of their games have been settled by less than 9. The one "blowout" win? They beat Houston by 10 in week 12. How likely is it that they win by 9 at this point? I would say pretty freaking unlikely. And so would the box.
Here are the early picks:
| THE PICKS | Over / |
| * considers lay in pick order | Under |
| 1. TB +2.5 v. CAR @Home | 40.5 |
| 2. SEA +2.5 v. ATL Away | 40.5 |
| 3. CIN -2.5 v. MIA Away | 38.5 |
| 4. GB -3.5 v. DET @Home | 40.5 |
| 5. OAK +8 v. SD @Home | 41.5 |
| 6. PIT +3.5 v. BAL Away | 40.0 |
| 7. JAC +6 v. HOU Away - Bet Soon | 42.5 |
| 8. SF +9 v. CLE Away - Bet Soon | 40.5 |
| 9. NO -2 v. CHI Away | 43.0 |
| 10. IND +6.5 v. TEN @Home | 43.5 |
| 11. DEN +3 v. MIN @Home - Bet Soon | 42.0 |
| 12. NYG +14 v. NE @Home - Bet Soon | 45.0 |
| 13. BUF +7.5 v. PHI Away | 43.5 |
| 14. DAL +9 v. WAS Away - Bet Soon | 43.0 |
| 15. STL +6 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon | 37.5 |
| 16. KC +6 v. NYJ Away - Bet Soon | 39.0 |
I like that one-two punch in Seattle and TB - TB coming off an embarrassing loss (that won me some $s last week) and Seattle coming off an even more embarrassing loss, despite not needing the W at all.
I know the Colts and Cowboys are lower conviction picks, but I can't help be drawn to those games that clearly feel like they were handicapped to reflect public sentiment more than team performance. Week 17 is an excellent week for arbitrage I think, as the "who will play" frenzy that factors into the spreads is often overwrought. In fact, if the Box were Vegas and ignored the statistics, here's how it would have handicapped this week:
| Vegas | Vegas | ||
| Fav | Guess | Actual | Dog |
| NE | -14 | -14 | NYG |
| PHI | -3.5 | -7.5 | BUF |
| GB | -5 | -3.5 | DET |
| NO | -4 | -2 | CHI |
| HOU | 3 | -6 | JAC |
| CAR | 4 | -2.5 | TB |
| CLE | -13 | -9 | SF |
| CIN | -6.5 | -2.5 | MIA |
| ATL | 9.5 | -2.5 | SEA |
| WAS | 9.5 | -9 | DAL |
| PIT | -8 | 3.5 | BAL |
| ARI | -7 | -6 | STL |
| SD | -7 | -8 | OAK |
| MIN | -4 | -3 | DEN |
| NYJ | -3 | -6 | KC |
| TEN | 10 | -6.5 | IND |
There are some giant shifts there - owing entirely to public sentiment. If the spread was like the stock market, this is a nice bear market chance to make some money on quality teams that are undervalued because of mob mentality.
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