I decided on:
- cin (-6) over CLE
- dal (-145) over DEN,
- dal (-3) over DEN (zero juice!);
I wanted to stay pretty safe by picking against the Browns, who are just in turmoil. As for Denver... I just don't think they are a real 3-0 team, and I think Dallas' running game is going to expose them. Watching the highlights of the Dallas v Giants game shows you how good the Cowboys can be, and I don't see anything like that in the Broncos.
Jerry Jones, I still hate you.
Edit: After reading up some more, I couldn't resist my first teaser of the year...
HOU (-2.5) over oak -- nyg (-3) over KC -- NO (-1) over nyj -- sd (+12.5) over PIT
Houston should have no problem beating Oakland by 3, same goes for the Giants over KC. I've given SD a 12 point cushion against an ailing Steelers team. That leaves the Saints, who are at home against the Jets. The Jets haven't had to keep up with a good offense yet, and I think the Saints are going to force their hand. Sanchez has looked good so far because he hasn't had to score a lot of points yet. This week we'll see some interceptions leading to a Saints victory.
Showing posts with label teaser. Show all posts
Showing posts with label teaser. Show all posts
Friday, October 2, 2009
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Week 15 - Box's Final Bets - Bet Your House
So this week, I'm taking some risks. Some big risks. Calculated, but big. I'm betting almost 100% of my bankroll. My bets total $110 of my $136 bankroll.
My reasoning is based on the following statistics: cost per bet (which I fixed), and win percentage. While these are inexorably linked mathematically, I'm risk averse, so I don't quite trust my own winnings. I wanted to give myself a weekly shot at the big ticket win without risking much percentage-wise.
My theoretically best bet combination, which I'm sure will change as I get more data points, looks like this (with "asset allocations"):
1.) 4 Individual Spread Bets - 70.5%
2.) "Top 2" Team Parlay (with "Wacky Friday" vig if I can get it) - 18%
3.) "Top 7" Team Parlay - 7%
4.) "Top 9" Team Parlay - 4.5%
I'm well diversified, though there is a lot of duplication in the parlays. I've given some serious thought to switching out the 7 team parlay with a 7 team 6 point teaser (you'll see why in the win percentages below), but the payouts are just not compelling. I may change my tune in a big down week, but for now, I should stick to my guns. Here are the Box's win percentages since Week 1 of 2006 ("Tease" is 6 point teasers):
Not so bad, I would say. Those results are through Week 14 of 2007. It clearly delineates what you would expect: it's easier to pick single teams (since you're chance of victory is hypothetically 50/50), teasers add a nice edge to straight parlays, and parlays are longshots but high payouts. With this sort of win percentages, the "cost per bet" as outlined previously should have looked like the below chart - I found a few errors in parenthesis and actually I was pointing to the wrong odds in some places:
The light green highlight a.) straight parlays with 20% or better win percentage, b.) teasers with 50% or better win percentages, and c.) individual bets with 75% or better win percentages. That to me was the money spot, where the payouts were high but the risk was low(er). Again, I decided to stay away from teasers, as it's just obvious how much less they payout. With the payouts as they are and the win percentages I have, if I hit a 15 team 6 point teaser, I'd be compensated the same as if I hit a 4 team regular parlay because of the payout structure. So don't fool yourself: you PAY for those points. And you pay big.
Hypothetically, I'd be best off putting big dollars on the number one individual pick and bet like so:
And yes, if I did that, my winnings would be very very nice. But when I lose, not only do I lose - I lose 100% of my bet. It's hard to swallow, despite the winning trend. Maybe when I grow a pair next year, this is exactly how I'll bet. For now, I'm content with a more diversified approach. That said, going into this week, this is how my picks look:
Redundant? Yes. Ridiculous? Absolutely. A winner? Of course... not? I don't know, but the bets are in, and we shall see. Don't let me down now, Box!
My reasoning is based on the following statistics: cost per bet (which I fixed), and win percentage. While these are inexorably linked mathematically, I'm risk averse, so I don't quite trust my own winnings. I wanted to give myself a weekly shot at the big ticket win without risking much percentage-wise.
My theoretically best bet combination, which I'm sure will change as I get more data points, looks like this (with "asset allocations"):
1.) 4 Individual Spread Bets - 70.5%
2.) "Top 2" Team Parlay (with "Wacky Friday" vig if I can get it) - 18%
3.) "Top 7" Team Parlay - 7%
4.) "Top 9" Team Parlay - 4.5%
I'm well diversified, though there is a lot of duplication in the parlays. I've given some serious thought to switching out the 7 team parlay with a 7 team 6 point teaser (you'll see why in the win percentages below), but the payouts are just not compelling. I may change my tune in a big down week, but for now, I should stick to my guns. Here are the Box's win percentages since Week 1 of 2006 ("Tease" is 6 point teasers):
| Parlay | Tease | Ind | |
| 1 Team Bet | 0.00% | 0.00% | 87.10% |
| 2 Team Bet | 67.74% | 83.87% | 81.45% |
| 3 Team Bet | 45.16% | 67.74% | 75.81% |
| 4 Team Bet | 35.48% | 51.61% | 76.21% |
| 5 Team Bet | 25.81% | 41.94% | 70.65% |
| 6 Team Bet | 22.58% | 32.26% | 70.43% |
| 7 Team Bet | 19.35% | 22.58% | 71.43% |
| 8 Team Bet | 9.68% | 12.90% | 69.76% |
| 9 Team Bet | 6.45% | 12.90% | 66.31% |
| 10 Team Bet | 3.23% | 9.68% | 64.52% |
| 11 Team Bet | 0.00% | 6.45% | 62.61% |
| 12 Team Bet | 0.00% | 6.45% | 60.88% |
| 13 Team Bet | 0.00% | 6.45% | 59.77% |
| 14 Team Bet | 0.00% | 3.23% | 58.07% |
| 15 Team Bet | 0.00% | 3.23% | 57.65% |
Not so bad, I would say. Those results are through Week 14 of 2007. It clearly delineates what you would expect: it's easier to pick single teams (since you're chance of victory is hypothetically 50/50), teasers add a nice edge to straight parlays, and parlays are longshots but high payouts. With this sort of win percentages, the "cost per bet" as outlined previously should have looked like the below chart - I found a few errors in parenthesis and actually I was pointing to the wrong odds in some places:
| Prog | 6 Pt Tease | 6.5 Pt Tease | 7 Pt Tease | Chp Parl | Reg Parl | Ind Bets | |
| 1 Team Bet | $0.66 | ||||||
| 2 Team Bet | $0.60 | $0.54 | $0.48 | $1.57 | $1.44 | $0.55 | |
| 3 Team Bet | $0.90 | $0.76 | $0.63 | $2.34 | $2.16 | $0.45 | |
| 4 Team Bet | $1.24 | $1.06 | $0.81 | $0.55 | $4.15 | $2.90 | $0.45 |
| 5 Team Bet | $2.04 | $1.31 | $1.10 | $0.89 | $6.23 | $5.71 | $0.35 |
| 6 Team Bet | $3.41 | $1.26 | $1.10 | $0.94 | $11.42 | $8.26 | $0.34 |
| 7 Team Bet | $7.52 | $1.48 | $1.26 | $1.03 | $19.90 | $13.71 | $0.36 |
| 8 Team Bet | $5.83 | $1.06 | $0.68 | $0.42 | $19.42 | $13.61 | $0.33 |
| 9 Team Bet | $8.21 | $1.71 | $1.06 | $0.68 | $25.58 | $18.42 | $0.27 |
| 10 Team Bet | $7.88 | $1.52 | $1.03 | $0.55 | $24.97 | $21.61 | $0.23 |
| 11 Team Bet | -$2.04 | $1.32 | $0.68 | $0.35 | -$1.00 | -$1.00 | $0.20 |
| 12 Team Bet | -$0.88 | $2.29 | $1.32 | $0.68 | -$1.00 | -$1.00 | $0.16 |
| 13 Team Bet | $3.90 | $2.29 | $1.32 | $0.14 | |||
| 14 Team Bet | $2.26 | $1.45 | $0.65 | $0.11 | |||
| 15 Team Bet | $3.87 | $2.26 | $1.45 | $0.10 |
The light green highlight a.) straight parlays with 20% or better win percentage, b.) teasers with 50% or better win percentages, and c.) individual bets with 75% or better win percentages. That to me was the money spot, where the payouts were high but the risk was low(er). Again, I decided to stay away from teasers, as it's just obvious how much less they payout. With the payouts as they are and the win percentages I have, if I hit a 15 team 6 point teaser, I'd be compensated the same as if I hit a 4 team regular parlay because of the payout structure. So don't fool yourself: you PAY for those points. And you pay big.
Hypothetically, I'd be best off putting big dollars on the number one individual pick and bet like so:
| Best Bets | |
| Progressive | 9 Team Bet |
| 6 Pt Teaser | 13 Team Bet |
| 6.5 Pt Teaser | 13 Team Bet |
| 7 Pt Teaser | 15 Team Bet |
| Cheap Parlay | 9 Team Bet |
| Regular Parlay | 10 Team Bet |
| Individual Bets | 1 Team Bet |
And yes, if I did that, my winnings would be very very nice. But when I lose, not only do I lose - I lose 100% of my bet. It's hard to swallow, despite the winning trend. Maybe when I grow a pair next year, this is exactly how I'll bet. For now, I'm content with a more diversified approach. That said, going into this week, this is how my picks look:
| Bets for Week 15 |
| Spread: HOU +1 (-110) v. DEN - $20.19 to win $18.35 |
| Spread: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB - $23.42 to win $21.29 |
| Spread: JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT - $16.75 to win $15.23 |
| Spread: OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND - $17.14 to win $15.58 |
| Parlay: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN - $20.00 to win $52.00 |
| Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $7.50 to win $671.33 |
| Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, NO -3.5 (-110) v. ARI, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, BUF +5.5 (-110) v. CLE, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $5.00 to win $1644.39 |
| Bet Totals: | $110.00 |
| Potential Winnings: | $2,438.17 |
Redundant? Yes. Ridiculous? Absolutely. A winner? Of course... not? I don't know, but the bets are in, and we shall see. Don't let me down now, Box!
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Week 14 - Teasers Pay Off Again - Weekly Roundup
I seem to have found my niche. The teasers have paid off big-time the past month, and I see no reason to stop going forward with them. This was actually an overall good week for me, I would have had a sweep had DAL performed up to par.
The good:
CLE -3.5 - my only single game bet, and once again CLE continued to be a solid bet. This was my favorite game, as they were hardly favored against a terrible NYJ team. Turns out a garbage time field goal nearly cost me this one, but CLE put one of their own up at closing to cover. I had them in a teaser +2.5 (love to flip favorites to dogs) C'mon Vegas, keep underestimating the Brownies!
IND -3 - I don't know why this game's spread actually moved down as the week went on, but it didn't matter. As I figured, Baltimore was exhausted after their tough loss to NE and just couldn't keep up. I may take a similar strategy with PIT next week, as they have a tough game vs. JAX and just got smacked around by the Patsies.
MIN -3 - aaah... This one felt good. Had them in two teasers and they rewarded my bandwagon jumping. This is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and should continue steamrolling weak opponents. It's December football, and that means battling out on the ground. The Vikes can run over anyone, and stop the run as well. Watch out for this team and reasonable spreads.
NO +2 - this one also felt good. I flipped them on a teaser to get them with points, figuring there was no way the lost to the Falcons. Turns out I didn't need to put them in the teaser, since they destroyed ATL, but winning is winning.
The Bad:
Dal -4.5 - They took a nap in the first half, and couldn't get going to put any distance between them and DET, who are a weak-ass team who should have been beaten badly. Using them in a teaser to reduce the spread to -4.5 should have been a lock, but I guess you can't win them all.
OAK +10.5 - had them in my crazy-whack 10 team parlay and this was just a bad call on my part. I figured incorrectly that Favre being hurt, and just coming off an emotional loss to DAL would give the pesky Raiders the edge to get within the large spread. Nope.
The Box - I had four box teams in my crazy-whack 10 team, and three lost. The box has been ice cold the past 3 weeks, and I'm picking a bad time to jump on blindly. Surely the incredible math Matty has shown means the next few weeks should be dead-on...
Teasers - Yeah, two of my three teasers won... but they would have won as parlays, too! Had I stuck to the parlay theory I discussed earlier in the week, I would have been paid out 6:1 instead of 2.2:1. Triple the profits lost to having no sack. To put it in real #s... I would have cleared $110 this week, putting me in the positive for the first time since week 3 on the year. Once again, I repeat... it is bad gambling to bet big when you are losing, and bet small when you are winning.
Progressive Parlay: Lost big time, but it was to be expected. It was a fun long shot, and I maintain my earlier opinion that bang for buck fun-wise... it's amazing. I cared about 10 games this week, and even when a couple lost, I still was following the other 8 really closely.
All in all I'm very curious to see how the spreads lay out this week. I am reinvigorated in the parlay bets I was in love with at the beginning of the season, but I think the spreads have to make sense in order to do it, since I rely on intuition and conviction, not on mathematics.
Total Bets = $25
Total Payouts = $39
Total Profit = $14
% Return = ~40%
The good:
CLE -3.5 - my only single game bet, and once again CLE continued to be a solid bet. This was my favorite game, as they were hardly favored against a terrible NYJ team. Turns out a garbage time field goal nearly cost me this one, but CLE put one of their own up at closing to cover. I had them in a teaser +2.5 (love to flip favorites to dogs) C'mon Vegas, keep underestimating the Brownies!
IND -3 - I don't know why this game's spread actually moved down as the week went on, but it didn't matter. As I figured, Baltimore was exhausted after their tough loss to NE and just couldn't keep up. I may take a similar strategy with PIT next week, as they have a tough game vs. JAX and just got smacked around by the Patsies.
MIN -3 - aaah... This one felt good. Had them in two teasers and they rewarded my bandwagon jumping. This is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and should continue steamrolling weak opponents. It's December football, and that means battling out on the ground. The Vikes can run over anyone, and stop the run as well. Watch out for this team and reasonable spreads.
NO +2 - this one also felt good. I flipped them on a teaser to get them with points, figuring there was no way the lost to the Falcons. Turns out I didn't need to put them in the teaser, since they destroyed ATL, but winning is winning.
The Bad:
Dal -4.5 - They took a nap in the first half, and couldn't get going to put any distance between them and DET, who are a weak-ass team who should have been beaten badly. Using them in a teaser to reduce the spread to -4.5 should have been a lock, but I guess you can't win them all.
OAK +10.5 - had them in my crazy-whack 10 team parlay and this was just a bad call on my part. I figured incorrectly that Favre being hurt, and just coming off an emotional loss to DAL would give the pesky Raiders the edge to get within the large spread. Nope.
The Box - I had four box teams in my crazy-whack 10 team, and three lost. The box has been ice cold the past 3 weeks, and I'm picking a bad time to jump on blindly. Surely the incredible math Matty has shown means the next few weeks should be dead-on...
Teasers - Yeah, two of my three teasers won... but they would have won as parlays, too! Had I stuck to the parlay theory I discussed earlier in the week, I would have been paid out 6:1 instead of 2.2:1. Triple the profits lost to having no sack. To put it in real #s... I would have cleared $110 this week, putting me in the positive for the first time since week 3 on the year. Once again, I repeat... it is bad gambling to bet big when you are losing, and bet small when you are winning.
Progressive Parlay: Lost big time, but it was to be expected. It was a fun long shot, and I maintain my earlier opinion that bang for buck fun-wise... it's amazing. I cared about 10 games this week, and even when a couple lost, I still was following the other 8 really closely.
All in all I'm very curious to see how the spreads lay out this week. I am reinvigorated in the parlay bets I was in love with at the beginning of the season, but I think the spreads have to make sense in order to do it, since I rely on intuition and conviction, not on mathematics.
Total Bets = $25
Total Payouts = $39
Total Profit = $14
% Return = ~40%
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Week 14 - What a Difference a Parenthesis Makes
So I looked at all my numbers, the Capper brought up a valid point. Something didn't look quite right about the single bets. And when I looked closer, I realized there was a parenthesis out of place. And what a difference a paren makes.
When I rewrote all the errant parentheses, here's how it looks. Using the same assumptions as my previous post, the big winner? The cheap ass parlay ("crazy parlay Friday" for Sportsbook.com, my current book of choice). Time and time again, it seems to win the most in the long run compared to similar bets. I'm not sure how fully I believe that yet, but it would appear to be the case. Then again, it took me a while to believe in gravity, so I can be slow on the uptake. I could use a peer review of my numbers, so any interested parties, comment or email me and we can work it out.
Here are the charts at 45% (terrible), 52.38% (breakeven), and 55% (a moderate winner). Note that I changed the "edge" of the teaser parlays slightly if for no other reason than it's basically an arbitrary number right now. The "edge" was pretty high in the last series, since the difference between 52.38% and 53% is actually MASSIVE in terms of profitability. So I brought it down to more moderate levels.
Breakeven:
And the winner:
So the biggest, hardest to hit parlay with the giant payout is most worth it over time. Again, I would guess over a LONG time. The Box, in the last 2 seasons, has hit 12 win weeks only 4 times. And there's no guarantee you would pick the right 12 teams. I'm not sure how I could even figure that in. I would expect that, if you bet one 12 team parlay per week, you might hit one every few years or so. With a wacky Friday payout of 3066 to 1, that's why it's worth it. But the discipline and patience involved, plus the pure luck, are totally and utterly ridiculous. At $5 minimum bets, assuming you get lucky and it takes 2 seasons to hit once, it would only take a payroll $170. When it hits, it's worth an astounding $15,330.
I don't know about you, but I'm definitely not disciplined enough for that kind of betting. And I'm not that patient. These charts do make an argument for a.) betting a few 2 or 3 team parlays on wacky Friday every week, and b.) sticking to the winningest strategy (which for the Box is the top 5 spread picks) above all else.
When I rewrote all the errant parentheses, here's how it looks. Using the same assumptions as my previous post, the big winner? The cheap ass parlay ("crazy parlay Friday" for Sportsbook.com, my current book of choice). Time and time again, it seems to win the most in the long run compared to similar bets. I'm not sure how fully I believe that yet, but it would appear to be the case. Then again, it took me a while to believe in gravity, so I can be slow on the uptake. I could use a peer review of my numbers, so any interested parties, comment or email me and we can work it out.
Here are the charts at 45% (terrible), 52.38% (breakeven), and 55% (a moderate winner). Note that I changed the "edge" of the teaser parlays slightly if for no other reason than it's basically an arbitrary number right now. The "edge" was pretty high in the last series, since the difference between 52.38% and 53% is actually MASSIVE in terms of profitability. So I brought it down to more moderate levels.
| 0.33% | 0.66% | 1.00% | Ind Bets | ||||
| Prog | 6 Pt Tease | 6.5 Pt Tease | 7 Pt Tease | Chp Parl | Reg Parl | 45.00% | |
| 1 Team Bet | -$0.14 | ||||||
| 2 Team Bet | -$0.11 | -$0.12 | -$0.13 | -$0.23 | -$0.27 | -$0.28 | |
| 3 Team Bet | $0.00 | -$0.01 | -$0.02 | -$0.33 | -$0.36 | -$0.42 | |
| 4 Team Bet | -$0.79 | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.00 | -$0.41 | -$0.55 | -$0.56 |
| 5 Team Bet | -$0.83 | $0.04 | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$0.48 | -$0.52 | -$0.70 |
| 6 Team Bet | -$0.86 | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$0.54 | -$0.66 | -$0.85 |
| 7 Team Bet | -$0.93 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$0.60 | -$0.72 | -$0.99 |
| 8 Team Bet | -$0.94 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.01 | -$0.65 | -$0.75 | -$1.13 |
| 9 Team Bet | -$0.95 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0.69 | -$0.77 | -$1.27 |
| 10 Team Bet | -$0.97 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 | -$0.73 | -$0.76 | -$1.41 |
| 11 Team Bet | -$0.98 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$0.76 | -$0.83 | -$1.55 |
| 12 Team Bet | -$0.98 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$0.79 | -$0.88 | -$1.69 |
| 13 Team Bet | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$1.83 | |||
| 14 Team Bet | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$1.97 | |||
| 15 Team Bet | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$2.11 |
Breakeven:
| 0.33% | 0.66% | 1.00% | Ind Bets | ||||
| Prog | 6 Pt Tease | 6.5 Pt Tease | 7 Pt Tease | Chp Parl | Reg Parl | 52.38% | |
| 1 Team Bet | $0.00 | ||||||
| 2 Team Bet | $0.03 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.04 | -$0.01 | $0.00 | |
| 3 Team Bet | $0.16 | $0.14 | $0.11 | $0.06 | $0.01 | $0.00 | |
| 4 Team Bet | -$0.64 | $0.18 | $0.15 | $0.12 | $0.09 | -$0.17 | $0.00 |
| 5 Team Bet | -$0.67 | $0.16 | $0.15 | $0.13 | $0.10 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| 6 Team Bet | -$0.69 | $0.12 | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.14 | -$0.15 | $0.00 |
| 7 Team Bet | -$0.83 | $0.11 | $0.10 | $0.09 | $0.17 | -$0.18 | $0.00 |
| 8 Team Bet | -$0.83 | $0.09 | $0.07 | $0.06 | $0.20 | -$0.14 | $0.00 |
| 9 Team Bet | -$0.84 | $0.06 | $0.05 | $0.04 | $0.22 | -$0.11 | $0.00 |
| 10 Team Bet | -$0.90 | $0.04 | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.25 | $0.09 | $0.00 |
| 11 Team Bet | -$0.91 | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.28 | -$0.10 | $0.00 |
| 12 Team Bet | -$0.91 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.31 | -$0.23 | $0.00 |
| 13 Team Bet | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| 14 Team Bet | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| 15 Team Bet | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
And the winner:
| 0.33% | 0.66% | 1.00% | Ind Bets | ||||
| Prog | 6 Pt Tease | 6.5 Pt Tease | 7 Pt Tease | Chp Parl | Reg Parl | 55.00% | |
| 1 Team Bet | $0.05 | ||||||
| 2 Team Bet | $0.08 | $0.06 | $0.05 | $0.15 | $0.09 | $0.10 | |
| 3 Team Bet | $0.22 | $0.19 | $0.16 | $0.23 | $0.16 | $0.15 | |
| 4 Team Bet | -$0.58 | $0.24 | $0.20 | $0.16 | $0.33 | $0.01 | $0.20 |
| 5 Team Bet | -$0.61 | $0.22 | $0.20 | $0.18 | $0.41 | $0.31 | $0.25 |
| 6 Team Bet | -$0.61 | $0.16 | $0.16 | $0.15 | $0.52 | $0.13 | $0.30 |
| 7 Team Bet | -$0.80 | $0.16 | $0.15 | $0.13 | $0.64 | $0.16 | $0.35 |
| 8 Team Bet | -$0.79 | $0.13 | $0.11 | $0.10 | $0.77 | $0.26 | $0.40 |
| 9 Team Bet | -$0.80 | $0.10 | $0.08 | $0.06 | $0.90 | $0.39 | $0.45 |
| 10 Team Bet | -$0.87 | $0.07 | $0.06 | $0.05 | $1.04 | $0.78 | $0.50 |
| 11 Team Bet | -$0.87 | $0.05 | $0.04 | $0.03 | $1.19 | $0.53 | $0.55 |
| 12 Team Bet | -$0.89 | $0.04 | $0.03 | $0.02 | $1.35 | $0.38 | $0.60 |
| 13 Team Bet | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.65 | |||
| 14 Team Bet | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.70 | |||
| 15 Team Bet | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.75 |
So the biggest, hardest to hit parlay with the giant payout is most worth it over time. Again, I would guess over a LONG time. The Box, in the last 2 seasons, has hit 12 win weeks only 4 times. And there's no guarantee you would pick the right 12 teams. I'm not sure how I could even figure that in. I would expect that, if you bet one 12 team parlay per week, you might hit one every few years or so. With a wacky Friday payout of 3066 to 1, that's why it's worth it. But the discipline and patience involved, plus the pure luck, are totally and utterly ridiculous. At $5 minimum bets, assuming you get lucky and it takes 2 seasons to hit once, it would only take a payroll $170. When it hits, it's worth an astounding $15,330.
I don't know about you, but I'm definitely not disciplined enough for that kind of betting. And I'm not that patient. These charts do make an argument for a.) betting a few 2 or 3 team parlays on wacky Friday every week, and b.) sticking to the winningest strategy (which for the Box is the top 5 spread picks) above all else.
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