Friday, December 7, 2007

Week 14 - Interests Include Parlays, Teasers, and Long Walks on the Beach

The Capper likes to talk crazy. So crazy, he's doing a 10 team progressive parlay, 3 three team teasers, and a partridge in a pear tree. Since the Box's bets are in (posted again here for posterity), we'll do a little analysis of this betting style.

Bets for Week 14
Spread: ARI +7 (-105) v. SEA - $10.33 to win $9.84
Spread: KC +6.5 (-110) v. DEN - $7.79 to win $7.08
Spread: STL +6.5 (-115) v. CIN - $7.96 to win $6.92
Spread: SD 0 (-110) v. TEN - $18.28 to win $16.62
Spread: PIT +10 (-110) v. NE - $8.31 to win $7.55
Parlay: KC +6.5 (-110) v. DEN, ARI +7 (-105) v. SEA, STL +6.5 (-115) v. CIN, PIT +10 (-110) v. NE, MIA +7 (-110) v. BUF - $5.00 to win $55.00

With that out of the way, on to the analysis.

First, we'll analyze the payout schemes. Now, when the bookmakers give you a payout schedule, it's typically an estimation depending on the juice. You can expect more or less what they tell you, but I found that depending on the type of bet (ie, moneyline parlays), the payouts can vary. For the purpose of argument, we'll say the payouts are set in stone, because it'll simplify the analysis.

Parlay Payouts


Friday Only Special
Parlay Odds[-105]
Regular Daily Parlay Odds
2 Teams 2.8/1 13/5
3 Teams 6.4/1 6/1
4 Teams 13.5/1 10/1
5 Teams 27/1 25/1
6 Teams 54/1 40/1
7 Teams 107/1 75/1
8 Teams 210/1 150/1
9 Teams 411/1 300/1
10 Teams 804/1 700/1
11 Teams 1,570/1 1,100/1
12 Teams 3,066/1 1,800/1


Teaser Payouts for football:
Football: 6 Points 6.5 Points 7 Points
2 Teams -110 -120 -130
3 Teams +180 +160 +140
4 Teams 3/1 (+300) 5/2 (+250) 2/1 (+200)
5 Teams 4.5/1 4/1 3.5/1
6 Teams 6/1 5.5/1 5/1
7 Teams 10/1 9/1 8/1
8 Teams 15/1 12/1 10/1
9 Teams 20/1 15/1 12/1
10 Teams 25/1 20/1 15/1
11 Teams 35/1 25/1 20/1
12 Teams 50/1 35/1 25/1
13 Teams 75/1 50/1 35/1
14 Teams 100/1 75/1 50/1
15 Teams 150/1 100/1 75/1

Progressive Parlay

All Teams Won 1 Team Loss 2 Teams Lose 3 Teams Lose
4 Teams 5/1 1/1 -- --
5 Teams 11/1 2/1 -- --
6 Teams 20/1 9/2 -- --
7 Teams 40/1 4/1 1/2 --
8 Teams 75/1 10/1 2/1 --
9 Teams 150/1 20/1 5/2 --
10 Teams 250/1 25/1 3/1 1/1
11 Teams 400/1 60/1 5/1 1/1
12 Teams 900/1 80/1 10/1 3/1

Now, I did LOTS of math, and I had to make some assumptions, so here are the assumptions and results:

Assumption 1: Vegas is an efficient market. For Vegas to be perfectly efficient, it has to set spreads that win exactly 50% of the time. This means they always make money. So far this year, Vegas is batting roughly 49%. It's safe to assume that, over the long haul, Vegas wins.

Assumption 2: Teaser points ADD VALUE to your bet. I had to make assumptions that teasers tip odds of guessing correctly slightly in the bettors favor. This assumption is likely wrong, but without proper data, I'm not sure I could prove it either way. Instead, I give the bettor the benefit of the doubt.

I weighted progressive parlays so that the "cost per bet" includes the advantage you gain by allowing for losses an still getting payouts. The dollar values in the below chart are essentially cost of the payouts over time. Negative numbers are bad indicating you're losing money over time. Positive numbers are good in the long run. If I were to bet 3 team parlays all day long placing $1 bets (most minimums are $5, but $1 makes the math easy) with a win percentage of 52.38%, I would essentially make $0.01 per bet if I bet over a long enough time frame. Hardly worth it, I would say. I chose 52.38% because that's roughly the win percentage you need on individual bets to break even over time. Anything over that is profitable, anything under... well.. maybe betting's not for you. 52.38% is an estimate and makes the assumption that the juice is -110 for every game, so it's sort of an "ideal world" number. Good for the argument though.

My results are interesting, and may be hard to read, but here's a chart:

Prog = Progressive parlay
6 Pt Tease = 6 point teaser (the % are the % advantage getting points)
Chp Parl = cheaper parlays (some books have "Wacky Fridays" where the juice is lowered - here the juice is -105 instead of -110)
Reg Parl = regular parlay
Ind Bet = individual bets

1.00% 1.50% 2.00% Ind Bets
Prog 6 Pt Tease 6.5 Pt Tease 7 Pt Tease Chp Parl Reg Parl 52.38%
1 Team Bet $0.00
2 Team Bet $0.03 $0.02 $0.00 $0.04 -$0.01 $0.00
3 Team Bet $0.16 $0.14 $0.11 $0.06 $0.01 $0.00
4 Team Bet -$0.64 $0.19 $0.15 $0.12 $0.09 -$0.17 $0.00
5 Team Bet -$0.67 $0.16 $0.15 $0.13 $0.10 $0.03 $0.00
6 Team Bet -$0.69 $0.12 $0.11 $0.11 $0.14 -$0.15 $0.00
7 Team Bet -$0.83 $0.11 $0.10 $0.09 $0.17 -$0.18 $0.00
8 Team Bet -$0.83 $0.09 $0.07 $0.06 $0.20 -$0.14 $0.00
9 Team Bet -$0.84 $0.06 $0.05 $0.04 $0.22 -$0.11 $0.00
10 Team Bet -$0.90 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03 $0.25 $0.09 $0.00
11 Team Bet -$0.91 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.28 -$0.10 $0.00
12 Team Bet -$0.91 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 $0.31 -$0.23 $0.00
13 Team Bet $0.02 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00
14 Team Bet $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00
15 Team Bet $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00

Basically, you need HUGE BALLS to win over time. This suggests because of the giant payout, the 12 team cheap day parlay is the best bet over time. Over a LOOOOOOOONG time. Here's the chart assuming a 55% win rate, very respectable and hard to hit:

1.00% 1.50% 2.00% Ind Bets
Prog 6 Pt Tease 6.5 Pt Tease 7 Pt Tease Chp Parl Reg Parl 55.00%
1 Team Bet $0.05
2 Team Bet $0.08 $0.06 $0.05 $0.15 $0.09 $0.10
3 Team Bet $0.22 $0.19 $0.16 $0.23 $0.16 $0.20
4 Team Bet -$0.58 $0.25 $0.20 $0.16 $0.33 $0.01 $0.40
5 Team Bet -$0.61 $0.22 $0.20 $0.18 $0.41 $0.31 $0.80
6 Team Bet -$0.61 $0.17 $0.16 $0.15 $0.52 $0.13 $1.60
7 Team Bet -$0.80 $0.16 $0.15 $0.14 $0.64 $0.16 $3.20
8 Team Bet -$0.79 $0.13 $0.11 $0.10 $0.77 $0.26 $6.40
9 Team Bet -$0.80 $0.10 $0.08 $0.07 $0.90 $0.39 $12.80
10 Team Bet -$0.87 $0.07 $0.06 $0.05 $1.04 $0.78 $25.60
11 Team Bet -$0.87 $0.05 $0.04 $0.03 $1.19 $0.53 $51.20
12 Team Bet -$0.89 $0.04 $0.03 $0.02 $1.35 $0.38 $102.40
13 Team Bet $0.04 $0.03 $0.02 $204.80
14 Team Bet $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $409.60
15 Team Bet $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 $819.20

Clearly, bet every game individually here.

If it's a 45% win rate, here's your look:

1.00% 1.50% 2.00% Ind Bets
Prog 6 Pt Tease 6.5 Pt Tease 7 Pt Tease Chp Parl Reg Parl 45.00%
1 Team Bet -$0.14
2 Team Bet -$0.11 -$0.12 -$0.13 -$0.23 -$0.27 -$0.28
3 Team Bet $0.01 -$0.01 -$0.02 -$0.33 -$0.36 -$0.56
4 Team Bet -$0.79 $0.04 $0.02 $0.00 -$0.41 -$0.55 -$1.13
5 Team Bet -$0.83 $0.04 $0.03 $0.02 -$0.48 -$0.52 -$2.25
6 Team Bet -$0.86 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 -$0.54 -$0.66 -$4.51
7 Team Bet -$0.93 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 -$0.60 -$0.72 -$9.02
8 Team Bet -$0.94 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 -$0.65 -$0.75 -$18.04
9 Team Bet -$0.95 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 -$0.69 -$0.77 -$36.07
10 Team Bet -$0.97 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 -$0.73 -$0.76 -$72.15
11 Team Bet -$0.98 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.76 -$0.83 -$144.29
12 Team Bet -$0.98 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.79 -$0.88 -$288.58
13 Team Bet $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$577.16
14 Team Bet $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$1,154.33
15 Team Bet $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$2,308.65

Now, teasers seem useful for LOSERS.

Conclusion: PROGRESSIVE PARLAYS SUCK SCROTE. I will not be betting them in the future unless I can get my win rate up. Why you ask? It's seems counterintuitive you say? Well, it's easy really. The payouts are TERRIBLE. Comparatively, a regular parlay pays out 10/1 on a 4 team parlay. Nice payout. But the progressive? 5/1 on the same parlay, because you're "paying" for the ability to lose a game. The payout on hitting the 3 out of 4? 1/1. A 3 team straight parlay pays 6/1, so you are giving up essentially 500% to be "progressive". You are far better off paying for total combination of parlays (1 four team parlay, and 3 three team parlays) because it costs less in the end.

So teaser and parlay madness in the future? I think not. I'll stick to my winning guns.

No comments: