Week 1, 2, 3 2009 - Capper Back in Action

Sorry for the delay, I am fooling around with an "all-in" policy I started with Week 1 when I realized I still had $28 in the bank left over from last season's debacle.

Week 1 Results - Looked at the games and I couldn't believe I saw:

MIN(-4) vs CLE

Quinn vs Anderson, Kellen's gone, new Head Coach... CLE is gonna lose a lot. MIN is a popular NFC Superbowl pick, so this one was a lock to me. I went all-in, half my bank to the moneyline, half to the spread bet.

BINGO. Paid out $20, a nice 70% return.

Week 2 didn't have any absolutes in it for me, so I stayed away. Good thing, too. Lots of upsets.

Week 3 is here and I'm looking for my 'lock'. I'll get back to you

Week 02: I Couldn't Help Myself

I ended up betting on a few moneylines to test out the system. So far? Not so stellar, but could be worse. Here are the results:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	TB	@ BUF	+170	35%	$8.49	L	$0.00
2	CLE	@ DEN	+160	27%	$7.69	L	$0.00
3	NYG	@ DAL	+130	20%	$7.00	W	$16.11
4	STL	@ WAS	+400	18%	$6.82	L	$0.00
5	DET	v. MIN	+400			L
6	MIA	v. IND	+155			L
7	NYJ	v. NE	+165			W
8	HOU	@ TEN	+240			W
9	ARI	@ JAC	+145			W
10	BAL	@ SD	+135			W
11	OAK	@ KC	+140			W
12	CIN	@ GB	+360			W
13	PIT	@ CHI	-145			L
14	CAR	@ ATL	+220			L
15
	Totals:		Bets:		$30.00	Payout:	$16.11
			Week Return:		-46.31%

Ouch. But it's experimental, not sure why I keep at the Moneylines. I've done iteration after iteration, and it doesn't work. Is the Moneyline the bet the house always wins?? Is it the slot machine of NFL betting?

Look out for Rankings, this week's bets, et al to come.

Bonus feature: I created a Monte Carlo simulator to simulate games 1,000 times. Not betting it, but back tests are promising. Very promising.

Week 02: Betting the Moneyline

I'm working on new moneyline strategies that focus on high risk/high reward betting. Unclear whether I will use it, as I've had mixed backtesting. Excellent results in 2007, terrible results in 2008. Still tweaking. Here's what I'm showing this week, may make these bets and see how they play:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %
1	TB	@ BUF	+190	36%
2	CLE	@ DEN	+160	26%
3	NYG	@ DAL	+130	20%
4	STL	@ WAS	+400	18%

Notice it's all the dogs, so major major risk betting. But mostly low yield dogs - love the NYG pick, and the box is taking TB both on the ML and the spread. STL is terrible, I can't quite figure why the box finds it so sexy.

Hopefully the wrinkles are ironed by next week and betting can begin in earnest. I'm moist with anticipation (is it wrong to say moist? Definitely).

Week 02: Power Ranks and Best Bets

Power ranks are super compressed - the difference between the top ranked team (SD) and the middle ranked team (STL... yes, it's still early, so STL) is a meager 17% difference. Week 3 will be much more informative. Here are the ranks and best bets:

Power Ranks		▲▼	%FromTop	W/L/T	ATS
1	SD		0%	1 - 0 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
2	IND		2%	1 - 0 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
3	NE		5%	1 - 0 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
4	PIT	▲1	6%	1 - 0 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
5	MIN	▲3	7%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
6	JAC		8%	0 - 1 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
7	BAL	▲2	8%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
8	SEA	▲3	9%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
9	CHI	▼5	9%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
10	TEN	▼3	9%	0 - 1 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
11	PHI	▲1	9%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
12	NYG	▼2	10%	1 - 0 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
13	DAL	▲2	14%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
14	NO	▲6	16%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
15	GB	▲3	17%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
16	STL	▼3	17%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
17	CIN		18%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
18	KC	▼2	19%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
19	WAS		19%	0 - 1 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
20	OAK	▲6	22%	0 - 1 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
21	ATL	▲6	22%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
22	CAR	▼8	22%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
23	NYJ	▲5	22%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
24	CLE	▼1	23%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
25	MIA	▼1	23%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
26	HOU	▼4	23%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
27	TB	▼2	23%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
28	ARI	▲1	25%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
29	DET	▼8	25%	0 - 1 - 0	0 - 1 - 0
30	SF		26%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
31	DEN		27%	1 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
32	BUF		29%	0 - 1 - 0	1 - 0 - 0

and the best bets for Week 02 (loving some of these picks, especially the number one):

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd
1	SEA	@ SF	+1.5
2	PHI	v. NO	0
3	TB	@ BUF	+5
4	CLE	@ DEN	+3
5	NYG	@ DAL	+3
6	CHI	v. PIT	+3
7	STL	@ WAS	+9.5
8	CAR	@ ATL	+6
9	CIN	@ GB	+9
10	OAK	@ KC	+3
11	SD	v. BAL	-3
12	HOU	@ TEN	+6.5
13	JAC	v. ARI	-3
14	NE	@ NYJ	-3.5
15	DET	v. MIN	+10
16	IND	@ MIA	-3