Week 03: Ouch

I mean ouch.

I got killed. Still in the game, it's a long season. But got killed.

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	OAK	v. DEN	+1.5	24%	$32.75	L	$0.00
2	SEA	v. CHI	+2	19%	$27.47	L	$0.00
3	JAC	@ HOU	+3.5	8%	$14.63	W	$28.56
4	BUF	v. NO	+6	7%	$13.15	L	$0.00
5	MIN	v. SF	-6.5	7%	$13.08	L	$0.00
6	STL	v. GB	+6.5	7%	$13.00	L	$0.00
7	IND	@ ARI	+2.5	7%	$12.83	W	$25.04
8	TB	v. NYG	+6.5	7%	$12.58	L	$0.00
9	DET	v. WAS	+6.5	6%	$12.14	W	$23.70
10	CAR	@ DAL	+8.5	4%	$10.07	L	$0.00
11	CLE	@ BAL	+13	4%	$9.22	L	$0.00
12	SD	v. MIA	-5.5			W
13	NE	v. ATL	-4			W
14	PIT	@ CIN	-4			L
15	TEN	@ NYJ	+3			L
	Totals:		Bets:		$170.91	Payout:	$77.30
			Week Return:		-54.77%

Never thought I'd say it, but I'm genuflecting on the Moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	IND	@ ARI	+125	46%	$9.58	W	$21.56
2	JAC	@ HOU	+165	31%	$8.13	W	$21.56
3	TEN	@ NYJ	+130	20%	$7.05	L	$0.00
4	SEA	v. CHI	+110	2%	$5.24	L	$0.00
5	BAL	v. CLE	-700			W
6	MIN	v. SF	-280			W
7	SD	v. MIA	-270			W
8	NYG	@ TB	-290			W
9	NO	@ BUF	-270			W
10	WAS	@ DET	-270			L
11	NE	v. ATL	-210			W
12	DAL	v. CAR	-380			W
13	PIT	@ CIN	-200			L
14	GB	@ STL	-275			W
15
	Totals:		Bets:		$30.00	Payout:	$43.11
			Week Return:		43.71%

The overall damage:

Start Value
$341.83
$s Added	$s Withdrawn
$0.00	$0.00
Bets Placed
$200.91
Bet Income
-$80.50
Ending Value
$261.32
Total Return
-23.55%

Could have been worse. I could have been stabbed.

Week 3 - Results just plain peachy

I'm not sure why they had to give me a heart attack, but Da Bears pulled it out at the end like I predicted, netting me another $20 this weekend on $24 wagered.

Just because this has happened so rarely over the past 3 seasons, I'm going to gloat... Mattyboy, I kicked the box's ass this weekend. Went 3 for 4 on my games of the week, all against the box.

Take that.

Week 1, 2, 3 2009 - Capper Back in Action

Sorry for the delay, I am fooling around with an "all-in" policy I started with Week 1 when I realized I still had $28 in the bank left over from last season's debacle.

Week 1 Results - Looked at the games and I couldn't believe I saw:

MIN(-4) vs CLE

Quinn vs Anderson, Kellen's gone, new Head Coach... CLE is gonna lose a lot. MIN is a popular NFC Superbowl pick, so this one was a lock to me. I went all-in, half my bank to the moneyline, half to the spread bet.

BINGO. Paid out $20, a nice 70% return.

Week 2 didn't have any absolutes in it for me, so I stayed away. Good thing, too. Lots of upsets.

Week 3 is here and I'm looking for my 'lock'. I'll get back to you

Week 03: Best Bets

Spread:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %
1	SEA	v. CHI	+2	26%
2	JAC	@ HOU	+3.5	11%
3	BUF	v. NO	+6	9%
4	STL	v. GB	+6.5	9%
5	IND	@ ARI	+2.5	9%
6	MIN	v. SF	-6.5	8%
7	TB	v. NYG	+6.5	8%
8	DET	v. WAS	+6.5	8%
9	CAR	@ DAL	+8.5	6%
10	CLE	@ BAL	+13	5%
11	SD	v. MIA	-5.5
12	NE	v. ATL	-4
13	PIT	@ CIN	-4
14	OAK	v. DEN	+1.5
15	TEN	@ NYJ	+3

Moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %
1	IND	@ ARI	+125	46%
2	JAC	@ HOU	+165	31%
3	TEN	@ NYJ	+130	20%
4	SEA	v. CHI	+110	2%
5	BAL	v. CLE	-700
6	MIN	v. SF	-280
7	SD	v. MIA	-270
8	NYG	@ TB	-290
9	NO	@ BUF	-270
10	WAS	@ DET	-270
11	NE	v. ATL	-210
12	DAL	v. CAR	-380
13	PIT	@ CIN	-200
14	GB	@ STL	-275

Week 03: Ranks and Results

Here they are. Week 3 is the first week of MASSIVE movement - all the standard deviation measures, performance volatility, and the newest piece in my repertoire, bias - hit this week since I have a few data points. So major moves. Things to remember - this is a measure of how good a team combined with how consistent a team plays against their expectations. Hence NE at the bottom and WAS towards the top.

Anyway, enough said, here's some ranks. Best bets to come.

Power Ranks		▲▼	%FromTop	W/L/T	ATS
1	NYG	▲11	0%	2 - 0 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
2	MIN	▲3	33%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
3	DAL	▲10	40%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
4	IND	▼2	51%	2 - 0 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
5	PIT	▼1	56%	1 - 1 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
6	WAS	▲13	57%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
7	JAC	▼1	58%	0 - 2 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
8	BAL	▼1	58%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
9	NO	▲5	58%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
10	SEA	▼2	59%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
11	SD	▼10	60%	1 - 1 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
12	CLE	▲12	63%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
13	ATL	▲8	63%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
14	STL	▲2	63%	0 - 2 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
15	CHI	▼6	63%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
16	DET	▲13	64%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
17	GB	▼2	64%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
18	CIN	▼1	64%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
19	CAR	▲3	65%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
20	TB	▲7	65%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
21	NYJ	▲2	65%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
22	DEN	▲9	66%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
23	ARI	▲5	66%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
24	OAK	▼4	66%	1 - 1 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
25	TEN	▼15	66%	0 - 2 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
26	SF	▲4	67%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
27	MIA	▼2	68%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
28	NE	▼25	69%	1 - 1 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
29	HOU	▼3	71%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
30	PHI	▼19	73%	OFF	OFF
31	BUF	▲1	75%	1 - 1 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
32	KC	▼14	75%	OFF	OFF

GAME IMPORTANCE

Rank	GV	Playoff%
1	CHI v. SEA	31.10%
2	PIT v. CIN	31.10%
3	NE v. ATL	28.40%
4	NO v. BUF	28.40%
5	DEN v. OAK	28.40%
6	ARI v. IND	28.40%
7	MIN v. SF	25.70%
8	HOU v. JAC	25.15%
9	WAS v. DET	25.15%
10	GB v. STL	25.15%
11	SD v. MIA	25.15%
12	DAL v. CAR	25.15%
13	NYJ v. TEN	22.45%
14	BAL v. CLE	22.45%
15	NYG v. TB	22.45%