Week 12 - Box's Results and the Balls Therein

Ok. I'm tired of not winning. It's not so much that I'm losing. I'm just not winning.

I discovered a few blips in the system over the weekend when I was doing a small audit of the math - the Sharpe was using an improper array, and the Moneyline was reading from the wrong module. Neither of these things proved earth shattering for the week or the historical results, it was a matter of a few percentage points here or there.

What I have discovered, though, is that parlays are terrible. Parlays are like leverage in a hedge fund - they have the ability to enhance the returns by putting very little down, but the "very little down" can add up if the returns aren't there. The payouts are large for a reason: they are near impossible to predict. I've tried several permutations, and had little to no success on a consistent basis. And yet, when I do the historical review, had I chosen my top 5 spread picks ONLY, I'd be up huge this year.

Lesson learned?

Probably not.

Despite my discipline in terms of analyzing data, I can't seem to separate it into placing the bets. The parlays are fun when they hit. I'm going to spend some serious time this week exploring the parlay potential of each module and the combinations. Maybe if I combine Sharpe, stats, and rank by beta it'll work? Maybe the alpha and Sharpe is all I need? Also, I need to develop a teaser module - basically, I need to mirror the entire system and add the teaser points to each team to see what the best bets are. I don't know if they're any different, but we'll see.

Since I have no money on the game tonight, here are this week's results:

Results for Week 12

Moneyline: SEA (-160) v. STL - $19.05 wins $30.96

Moneyline: CLE (-170) v. HOU - $5.00 wins $7.94

Spread: SF +10 (-110) v. ARI - $11.14 wins $21.27

Spread: MIN +7.5 (-120) v. NYG - $7.07 wins $12.96

Spread: STL +3 (-115) v. SEA - $11.48 wins $0.00

Spread: BUF +7.5 (-110) v. JAC - $6.25 wins $0.00

Spread: DET +3 (110) v. GB - $5.37 wins $0.00

Parlay: STL +3 (-115) v. SEA, CAR +3 (-120) v. NO, DET +3 (110) v. GB - $5.00 wins $0.00

Parlay: STL +9 (-110) v. SEA, WAS +9 (105) v. TB, BAL +15 (-110) v. SD, DET +9 (105) v. GB, PHI +28.5 (-110) v. NE, ATL +18.5 (-110) v. IND - $5.00 wins $0.00

Results for Week 12
Bet Totals:	$75.36
Potential Winnings:	$113.43
Payouts:	$73.13
Actual Profit:	-$2.23
%s: Week 12	-2.96%

Box Results - through Week 12
Initial $s:	$139.16
Bet Totals:	$513.91
Potential Winnings:	$942.99
Payouts:	$518.46
Actual Profit:	$4.55
Gain/Loss	3.27%

Notice the teaser at the bottom of the bets that wasn't there in earlier posts. Yeah, that's called "5 minutes to game time, let's get crazy!" betting. I developed a slapdash teaser methodology that I didn't backtest that I decided to just go ahead an bet. Without that bet (or the parlay), I would have had a nicer week. Unfortunately, I am a moron.

Week 12 - Sunday Blues - Weekly Roundup

Well it started off so well with Thursday football. My last second changes to include indy and GB into the mix hit on Thankgiving, giving me a huge leg up on Sunday. Then it all went to crap.

First, the good:
IND vs ATL - I correctly added indy into the mix wednesday night, figuring they were a deep enough team to beat up lowly ATL. They are, and they did. I look forward to betting with IND and against ATL the rest of the way.

GB vs DET- It all came true.... DET was overrated and not given enough points, and GB went in there and spanked 'em. I added GB to my parlay and was looking forward to cashing in on Sunday.... Look for GB to keep winning, and keep an eye on any game they are not laying more than a field goal.

JAX vs BUF- I got this one right, too. JAX is the real deal, built for cold-weather power football. BUF is scrappy, but not ready to handle a team like this. BUF is still a good pick against the middle teams, though.

The Bad:
TN vs CIN- wow. 35-6. it wasn't even a game. My comment last week was that TN should just run over the Cincy defense. They didn't. The TN defense either misses Albert Haynesworth that much, or CIN just remembered how to play. Either way this pick blew up my parlay and half of my single-game picks.

KC vs OAK- I wisely moved them out of my parlay, but then stuck with them in two teasers, figuring that with a +0.5 at home against 2-win Oakland, it was a lock. It wasn't. I'm not sure what happened in this game, but it coast me two teasers.

ARI vs SF- The cards got beat by SF. Pathetic. Pathetic. Pathetic.

DEN vs CHI- Devin frickin Hester. Good for my fantasy team, bad for my single-game bet.

Eeesh...

net losses = $25.00

Week 12 - Matty is Mad, Capper is Cool - Final Picks

Matty Matty Matty.... What the hell are you doing?! (yes, i use multiple punctuation marks).

I completely agree that you are nuts for hedging the STL vs DET game. How can you be banking on a 1 or 2 point victory... let alone that you are relying on inconsistent SEA. You should hedge your algorithm by calculating the likelihood of a 1-2 point victory. Historically I bet it's less than 10%. Nuts I tell you. NUTS!

Another criticism... you're gonzo with your CLE vs HOU multi-bet. You pick the o/u on the game... fine. But picking CLE to cover -3.5 and then picking them to win the moneyline in the same parlay just doesn't make sense. If they win the game by less than 4 points, you will win your moneyline, but lose your spread pick anyway - destroying the parlay. now this would be fine if the moneyline was a higher risk-higher reward bet, but it's not! CLE -3.5 will pay 1:1 (less the juice), while the premium on the moneyline pick (since CLE is favored ) is ~70%! Why not just stick with the spread pick? If CLE wins but doesn't cover, you're parlay loses.

This parlay could hold some water if you were betting on an underdog. Say you thought HOU would win... Then you bet HOU +3.5 and pay the standard 15% juice, and you parlay this with a HOU +150 moneyline... Now you pay the same juice, but your moneyline pick ups your payout. This week the ideal game to play this game with would be DEN +2. We both think they beat CHI, and you'd be willing to bet them with the 2 points, and get the bonus payout for moneylining the 'dog.

As for the rest of your bets... this is more of the typical week where we completely disagree. I won't touch most of the games you bet, and the few games we both bet on, I am on the other side. This season you have kicked my ass in these situations, but I'm sticking to my guns.

I've made a last minute (albeit 5 glasses of wine) switch. I heard today that Priest Holmes retired. This means that KC is starting inexperienced Brady Croyle and now is down to their 3rd string back. While I still love KC at home vs OAK, I am no longer confident in their ability to cover a -5 spread. Therefore... I am adding a 2-team teaser to take advantage of an expected KC victory (KC +1) and adding in IND to cover a -6 spread vs. ATL... ATL has no quarterback, and no defense. They are f**ked. Will Indy win? YES! Will they win by a touchdown... I think so.

The second half of this new outlook is that KC needs to be dropped from my 3-team parlay. I'm sticking to my initial opinion that DET is overrated and that GB destroys them. Insert GB-3! Lastly, since the spread is only 2 in the DEN vs CHI game, and I like the 'dog (DEN), I'm switching from a spread pick to a moneyline bet to take advantage of the bonus payout, and avoid paying juice. If DEN loses by 1 point, I guess I deserve it. But again, what are the odds of that?

6-point Teaser:
[IND-6 at ATL -- KC +0.5 vs OAK]
[GB+3 at DET -- JAX -1.5 vs BUF -- ARI -4 vs SF -- KC +0.5 vs OAK]

3-team Parlay: [DEN +2 vs CHI -- GB -3 vs DET -- TN -1 vs CIN]

Straight up:
[DEN +110]
[TEN -1]

Friends shouldn't let friends bet drunk, but I'm here by myself with a bottle of Spanish Tempranillo Red Wine.

Cheers.

Week 12 - Box's Final Bets

Let me just say that I don't like my bets this week. In fact, I may prefer to have my face rub up against a cheese grater than make these bets. Too bad the Box says go. I am just a drone...

Bets for Week 12

Moneyline: SEA (-160) v. STL - $19.05 to win $11.91

Moneyline: CLE (-170) v. HOU - $5.00 to win $2.94

Spread: SF +10 (-110) v. ARI - $11.14 to win $10.13

Spread: MIN +7.5 (-120) v. NYG - $7.07 to win $5.89

Spread: STL +3 (-115) v. SEA - $11.48 to win $9.98

Spread: BUF +7.5 (-110) v. JAC - $6.25 to win $5.68

Spread: DET +3 (110) v. GB - $5.37 to win $5.91

Parlay: STL +3 (-115) v. SEA, CAR +3 (-120) v. NO, DET +3 (110) v. GB - $5.00 to win $30.99

Bet Totals:	$70.36
Potential Winnings:	$83.43

The stupidest part is the $20 SEA to win bet, coupled with 2 STL +3 bets. I'm throwing money away somewhere, especially when the Box is so convicted both ways. The Box is like a lawyer, arguing every side of everything.

Let's try to figure this out, shall we?

STL is the 3rd ranked spread pick, and is a statistical pick that wasn't overridden by they new Less Than Three module due to the 3 point spread. It's also a double down bet as the overall lowest game beta this week. So far, I like those odds. Seattle is overrated, and St. Louis is getting healthier. Not to mention they're playing on the turf. All good arguments for a St. Louis pick.

But then we move on to the moneyline. Moneyline is a combination of statistical conviction, alpha, Sharpe, and beta all rolled into one. The Box picks STL because statistically it's pegged the game at a 2 point Seattle win, not 3 as the spread suggests. So the moneyline statistically favors Seattle as well. But here's where it gets crazy. Seattle's Sharpe and alpha are OFF THE CHARTS compared to STL (see below for chart).

Pick:	STL	Opp:	SEA
Pick:	16.75	Diff:	-7.00
Opp:	9.75	Adv:	SEA

STL has a minor beta advantage, but both of their betas are so high, it shouldn't matter - they should play as consistently as they have all season hypothetically. So not only am I caught betting on Seattle to win with a big bet, but the Box throws STL against the spread in its parlay suggestions and straight wagers. I now require the perfect storm: a 1 or 2 point Seattle victory. Small margin for error I would say.

I think I need to figure a way to exclude any moneyline bet if I've already got a spread bet going and the spread is 3 or less. This way, I won't be praying Seattle gets that safety to win the game, and I can rest easy thinking it'll just be a field goal. Sigh. Another losing week on the horizon? Am I outsmarting myself? Well, I'm a genius, so if anyone could outsmart me, it would be ME.

Cross your fingers, I need a big week. Lots of money down, let's get there.

And I haven't back tested this at all, but worth a giggle - the Box now suggests a single game parlay bet, and here it is:

Spread

CLE

-3.5

Money

CLE

-170

O / U

40.6

I haven't backtested this module, but it was fun to make. I like the idea of having $5 or $10 on a single game with 3 factors going at once. The O/U represents what the over/under should be. So if Vegas has it at 45, you bet the under. If it's 40, you bet the over. Since I haven't tracked o/u historically, getting and back data will be very hard if not impossible, but at least it's entertaining.

Week 12 - Final Pick Ranks

Despite travel fatigue, I am true to the cause - here are the final pre-bet rankings for both spread and moneylines this week:

The Rankings - Spread
THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. MIN +7.5 v. NYG Away	42.5
2. BUF +7.5 v. JAC Away	42.5
3. STL +3 v. SEA @Home x2! - Bet Soon	38.5
4. SF +10 v. ARI Away x2! - Bet Soon	35.5
5. DET +3 v. GB @Home - Bet Soon	42.5
6. WAS +3 v. TB Away - Bet Soon	43.0
7. CIN +1 v. TEN @Home	40.0
8. CAR +3 v. NO @Home - Bet Soon	38.5
9. DEN +2 v. CHI Away	40.5
10. BAL +9 v. SD Away - Bet Soon	40.5
11. NYJ +14 v. DAL Away - Bet Soon	44.0
12. MIA +16 v. PIT Away - Bet Soon	40.5
13. OAK +5 v. KC Away	38.0
14. CLE -3.5 v. HOU @Home	40.5
15. ATL +12 v. IND @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
16. PHI +22.5 v. NE Away	47.5

No changes in the spread, I don't think, with the exception of NE officially being 22.5. I read the line opened at 17 and within minutes it was 22 as money poured in. When they play the Jets later this season, I expect nothing less than a 55 point spread. Here are the moneyline ranks:

The Rankings - Moneyline
THE PICKS
* considers lay in pick order
1. SEA -160 v. STL @Home x2!
2. CLE -170 v. HOU Away x2!
3. GB -190 v. DET @Home
4. TB -175 v. WAS Away
5. DEN +130 v. CHI Away
6. NO -140 v. CAR @Home
7. ARI -550 v. SF Away
8. NYG -320 v. MIN Away
9. JAC -350 v. BUF Away
10. SD -440 v. BAL Away
11. KC -240 v. OAK Away
12. IND -700 v. ATL @Home

I've altered the moneyline system slightly for this week, this is a trial run. I don't have much in the way of historical lays on moneylines, if anyone knows where I can get this info, I would love to have it. Right now the moneyline is chosen by the best Alpha, Sharpe, and Win Percentage. The new caveat is the rank order, which is now calculated using cost (the lay) per unit of risk (beta). This will move high cost games to the bottom if they are risky. For the small historical sample, it seems to work well at weeding out expensive and risky games. No telling yet how well the top 3 perform yet with any solid historical perspective, so we'll revisit this again later when I have better data.

I will be posting my final bets shortly once I decide on the best combination of risk. Lots of double bets this week in my top ranks, and also some nice hedges (STL +3 x2, SEA -160 x2) which will mitigate some of the risk while giving up some returns - worthwhile considering last week's debacle. What the Box says, Matt does.

Week 12 - Get out the Red Pen! Vegas vs the Mad Capper

Red Ink Everywhere! This means I'm smarter than the gambling world, or completely dilusional. I do find it interesting that Vegas upped the NE spread like I suggested, I won't be betting on a 22.5 spread, i wonder what the gambling world will do. Here's the breakdown:

VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER............... DIFF.
GB (-3) at DET....... SD (-11)..................... 8.0
NYJ (+14) at DAL..... DAL (-11).................... 3.0
IND (-12) at ATL..... IND (-8)..................... 4.0
TEN (-1) at CIN ..... TEN (-5)..................... 4.0
BUF (+7.5) at JAX.... JAX (-4)..................... 3.5
OAK (+5.5)at KC ..... KC (-3)...................... 2.5
HOU (+3.5)at CLE .... CLE (-2)..................... 1.5
SEA (-3) at STL...... SEA (-5)..................... 2.0
MIN (+7.5) at NYG.... NYG (-8)..................... 0.5
NO (-3) at CAR....... NO (-7)...................... 4.0
WAS (+3) at TB....... TB (-1) ..................... 2.0
SF (+10) at ARI...... ARI (-9)..................... 1.0
DEN (+2)at CHI....... DEN (-4)..................... 6.0
BAL (+9) at SD....... SD (-3)...................... 6.0
PHI (+22.5) at NE.... NE (-39)..................... 16.5
MIA (+16) at PIT..... PIT (-10).................... 6

The Thanksgiving Holidays create some urgency this week. My #1 prelim pick was GB over DET, figuring DET would be given too much credit, and I was dead on. It's GB-3 and I need to get my picks involving the Packers in today. So here's how my week is currently looking:

6-point Teaser: [GB+3 -- JAX -1.5 -- ARI -4 -- KC +0.5]

3-team parlay: [DEN +2 -- KC +5.5 -- TEN -1]

Straight Up:
TEN -1
DEN +2

Strangely enough, the more I looked at the games, the more nervous I became about the GB-DET game. DET plays much stronger at home, and is capable of a big game. It's also a holiday weekend, the home crowd will be fired up, and seriously... doesn't GB have to slip up once? If they are going to slip, this is a candidate. Plus, the box disagrees with me, so I just used them in the Teaser.

Happy Capsgiving!

Week 12 - Early Picks and Wall Street Ranks

The early picks are definitely preliminary, as Vegas can't seem to decide how to handicap the NE game. Again. In the rankings, I've highlighted to DET/GB game, where GB is currently favored by 3 to give an example of how the financial rankings can make the difference in a pick. The Sharpe and Alpha rankings are exactly flip flopped, and these teams execute very well, but the Beta indicates that GB is far more likely to do it again. Of course, because it's a 3 point game, the Box picks DET (the game is outside the <3 point margin for financial override), but at least it illustrates some things to consider. Here are the rankings and picks:

	Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Team	Rank	Rank	Rank
ARI	9	13	6
ATL	31	32	30
BAL	27	19	11
BUF	28	30	9
CAR	26	11	19
CHI	21	28	32
CIN	7	5	15
CLE	3	7	25
DAL	2	1	31
DEN	22	25	2
DET	12	6	22
GB	6	12	12
HOU	11	10	1
IND	5	3	26
JAC	16	27	23
KC	29	31	29
MIA	23	15	21
MIN	20	17	7
NE	1	2	8
NO	14	24	24
NYG	8	4	28
NYJ	25	14	13
OAK	24	9	3
PHI	15	22	20
PIT	4	8	17
SD	10	18	27
SEA	13	16	5
SF	32	23	16
STL	30	29	4
TB	19	26	18
TEN	18	21	14
WAS	17	20	10

THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. MIN +7.5 v. NYG Away	42.5
2. BUF +7.5 v. JAC Away x2!	42.5
3. STL +3 v. SEA @Home x2! - Bet Soon	38.5
4. SF +10 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon	35.5
5. DET +3 v. GB @Home - Bet Soon	42.5
6. WAS +3 v. TB Away - Bet Soon	43.0
7. CIN +1 v. TEN @Home	40.0
8. CAR +3 v. NO @Home - Bet Soon	38.5
9. DEN +2 v. CHI Away	40.5
10. BAL +9 v. SD Away - Bet Soon	40.5
11. NYJ +14 v. DAL Away - Bet Soon	44.0
12. MIA +16 v. PIT Away - Bet Soon	40.5
13. OAK +5.5 v. KC Away	38.0
14. CLE -3.5 v. HOU @Home	40.5
15. ATL +12 v. IND @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
16. PHI +22.5 v. NE Away	47.5

I expect the picks to change when the NE spread is finalized and by tomorrow evening when the spreads move a bit further off their opening lines, so stay tuned for a repeat pick post tomorrow or early on Turkey Day. The only favorite on the roster this week is CLE, but I'm glad it's the Box's 14th ranked pick, since HOU's return of Johnson and Schaub makes me nervous. The combo has the ability to be a Box buster, even against a scrappy Derek Andersen.

Notice in the WS Ranks how NE's beta actually DROPPED from last week because they outscored themselves, hence adding a layer of volatility. I'm not sure how DAL is even in the same league as NE in terms of output, but I think the Alpha rankings are the only rankings in the country that have DAL number 1 and NE number 2. That should at least make Dallas fans happy, until of course Dallas plays the Pats again for the ring and loses by 20 or 30 or 40 points. It's got to make you feel warm and fuzzy to see San Francisco and Miami ranked above anyone in SOMETHING, even if it is for consistent poor play.

Week 12 - Why Finance Works, and Why I Hate You

Firstly, I hate that you had non-sack enough to stay a winner this week. Especially when the Box decided losing was fun.

More importantly, here's a rundown on why the financial rankings and scores work (in close spread games and otherwise).

As I've posted, the Alpha and Sharpe ratios are two different ways to measure the same thing: risk adjusted returns. By my figuring of each algorithm, Sharpe is a metric purely of ability to score and variance in that ability, while Alpha is composed of a ratio of a team's statistical score (adjusted for the league wide average) to the moving average of points scored. While it sounds like a mouthful, the most important thing to take away is this: Sharpe uses points, Alpha uses stats. In that way, they can both be useful in slightly different ways for small spread games.

When the spread is small (in this case, under 3 points), the game is essentially dictated by a team's ability to WIN rather than a team's ability to COVER, which is precisely what an Alpha or Sharpe comparison indicates. When you look at two teams' Sharpe ratios side by side, what you're looking at is their risk adjusted ability to score. If a team has scored inconsistently, or hasn't scored, it will be reflected in the Sharpe. Sharpe adjusts for risk by assessing whether a team can consistently score equal to or more than the league average. The league average points scored is roughly 20, so just by scanning score lines you can even estimate a Sharpe (a very rough approximation, anyway) by seeing how consistently a team has scored 20+ points. In crunch games, where Vegas estimates the margin for victory at under 3 points, this can be very useful. If JAC played TEN in Week 11, ranked 16th and 17th in Sharpe, and the spread were under 3, you could reasonably infer that JAC had the advantage since it has a proven ability to score slightly more consistently than TEN. Since the spread is so low, you don't care how MUCH more than average they score, just that they score more consistently.

For my new hybrid, I've combined the Sharpe and Alpha to get a fuller picture of the teams. Since the Alpha is statistically based ratios, Alpha indicates whether a team has consistently equaled or outperformed how the statistics said it should have performed rather than just how many points it scored. Alpha in a way is a window to say, "Well, DEN put up 34 points last night, but was that an anomaly, or is that in their nature against a team like TEN?". When you combine Alpha (stat based) with Sharpe (point based), you get a rounder view of a team. The rankings are often close for Sharpe and Alpha, but there's enough difference to draw some interesting conclusions.

For the sake of example, we'll use the NYG v. DET game, where the spread had the NYG giving 2.5. The Giants had a fair sized statistical advantage, but the Box predicted a 2.2 point victory, just failing to get over the 2.5 point margin needed for a statistically based NYG pick. The Box has not historically been strong in these low margin games, and it's unclear to me just yet why that may be. In my model, I am measuring approximately how much better than average a team is, and correlating it directly to how many points they should score against an average team. However, if the two teams are equally above an below average (for instance, in this case the Giants are slightly above where DET is slightly below), the point prediction the Box makes may not accurately reflect a team's real ability to score. This is my working theory, but it seems to bear out historically - the ability to generate points above and beyond the stats make the difference in low margin games.

I've talked a lot about Beta, too, which is a component of Alpha. Beta is important on a different level, though still very useful in making decisions. Where Alpha indicates how teams have done in the past, Beta attempts to measure, based on history, how likely a team is to repeat its performance. Those are the major differences and reasoning behind using the financial ranks right now.

I'm going to spend the next bit working on the stats that were just released, I'll have updated rankings today and tomorrow morning.

Week 12 - Madcapping and guaranteed non punditry!

Boy am I glad my lack-a-sac senses prevented me from putting money on TEN last night. Yet another bullet I dodged in Week 11. Let's see if I can continue my matrix-like evasions for Week 12....

GB at DET: I forsee picking GB in this game, since they are killing the spread this year, and for some reason, DET is always overrated. I like GB to destroy DET in this game, and I'm thinking Vegas only gives them a slight edge. GB -11.

NYJ at DAL: I was really snobby about the Jets last week, and the went in and upset PIT. Seems to be a theme for me this year. In theory this game should be everything last week wasn't. Dallas is rolling and I don't see how the Jets can compete. No pass rush = TDs for TO. DAL -11.

IND at ATL: How is it that Indy has all these cheesepuff teams when they are injured? Indy clearly is the favorite here, but this game is actually on thursday, giving them only a few days rest, plus all the injuries..... IND -8.

TEN at CIN: Vince Young has thrown for more than 250 yds two weeks in a row - and they've lost both games. Albert Haynesworth's injury seems to be having a serious effect on TN's Defense also. Last night I expected TN to run all over the Broncos, and didn't. I would make the same prediction this week - run run run - but will they? They wouldn't go pass-whacky two weeks in a row against terrible run-defense teams woud they? TEN -5.

BUF at JAX: This game could end up being really interesting. Buffalo is scrappy as hell, fighting for their playoff lives while JAX is one of those teams that keeps winning, but unspectacularly. Although after last week I have a feeling Losman might be wetting his jockstrap for the rest of the year. JAX -4.

OAK at KC: KC is another scrappy-ass team. OAK seems to have lost its will (or possibly never had the ability?), and KC is still in the AFC West hunt. Plus the game is in Arrowhead. KC -3.

HOU at CLE: Surprisingly enough, these are two of my favorite teams to watch right now. Weird, huh? Anyway, beware the Texans! This year's stats and past performance you can throw out the window now that Shaub and Johnson are back (exhibit A - last week vs NO). CLE is playing so well, though, plus they have that 'team of destiny' feeling like GB does in the NFC. I think I'll stay clear of this game, it could go either way, but for madcapping purposes I'll take the Dog Pound CLE -2.

SEA at STL: This is one of those games you want to bet your house on, until you see SEA turn the ball over 6 times and fall down trying to tie their shoelaces. Then you have to find a cardboard box big enough to keep the rain off you at night... This game should be a SEA win, but I don't trust SEA to be good, and STL to stink. What are the beta values on this team, btw? SEA -5.


MIN at NYG: MIN pisses me off. They suck just enough to not cover spreads when they are favored, and show up in games when they should get creamed. I'm just bitter because they beat OAK by 7 last week and busted my parlay. NYG -8.

NO at CAR: Can Carolina beat anyone? I mean, do they atleast have MIA or STL on their schedule? NO is officially on the shelf with DET and PHI in the Multiple Personality closet, but they should win this one. NO -7.

WAS at TB: Tough game. TB plays tough every week, Garcia keeps 'em in all the games, I like Ernest Graham... all the same stuff I say every week. WAS seems to be the best at just barely losing. TB -1.

SF at ARI: *sigh* I'm gonna get creamed for this, but what can you do? ARI -9.

DEN at CHI: Cutler looked like Elway last night. Maybe he's turned the corner? Atleast maybe his better than Rex. DEN -4.

BAL at SD: I accidentally hit 'alt' instead of 'shift' when i first typed, and got these crazy wingding characters. I like this one so much - Å - I will henceforth use it whenever I talk about BÅL. Oh, right. Football. BÅL is a bunch of whiny bitches on defense, and still don't have a quarterback. SD... hey! did you see Shawne "My pecs are real, i swear" Merriman get pasted by little MJD last week? One of the coolest things I've ever seen. MJD popped him in the chest head-on and Mr. Real-Pecs dropped like a sack of Balco Powder. Frickin Awesome. SD -3.

PHI at NE: Does anyone ever bet against the Patriots? Why doesn't Vegas put up some stupid spread like -39 and see what happens. NE -39.

MIA at PIT: Remember last week when I said "um...yeah PIT -12". Screw you PIT! Now I'm in the exact same position as last week and my choices are to ignore last week and risk looking like the idiot who didn't pay attention or adjusting and looking like the idiot who thought MIA could hang in this game. PIT -10.

TMC

Week 12 - Box 2.0, Where Profits Flow Like Beer in Boston

In my last post, I mentioned the idea of taking the financial scores and rankings and applying them to close spread games as a way to mitigate some of the volatility of pick 'em type games. Well, I did just that, and the results were so surprisingly strong I had to check it three times over.

What I've done here is take the statistical model from Box 1.0 and made a hybrid with the financial scores to hopefully avoid the low spread games. The games this effects are any games with spreads under 3 - basically, games that fall below a "normal" win and come down to the wire. Vegas tends to think of home field advantage as worth 3 points (or slightly less depending on the field). For instance, if DEN had been favored by 3 against TEN last night, Vegas is saying that on a neutral field, the game would basically be a pick 'em. (Note: Historically, the 3 point homefield advantage is incorrect - home teams have displayed a 1 point advantage at home in the past 3 years). It would also follow that if a team were favored by LESS than 3 and playing at home, they would actually be underdogs at their opponent's field. These are the games that the statistics have a hard time deciphering, since often 3 or less points can be decided by chance. What the financial scores do is eliminate some of the guesswork.

I've gone through and highlighted the differences in profit using financial rankings in close games in the following charts. Note that financials are not available to use prior to Week 3, since you need a minimum number of games to begin using the algorithms. The differences are staggering performance-wise:

	Box 2.0		Box 1.0
	Total Ret		Total Ret		Profit Differential
Week 1	53.50%		53.50%		0.00%
Week 2	92.73%		92.73%		0.00%
Week 3	15.59%		15.59%		0.00%
Week 4	95.29%		39.87%		55.42%
Week 5	-22.19%		-70.95%		48.76%
Week 6	-8.00%		-8.00%		0.00%
Week 7	38.86%		67.56%		-28.70%
Week 8	-11.66%		-11.66%		0.00%
Week 9	89.69%		89.69%		0.00%
Week 10	92.07%		69.04%		23.03%
Week 11	15.44%		-67.60%		83.04%
Total:	451.32%		269.77%

To put this in perspective, I needed to view it as dollars, so here is the running bankroll highlighting the above:

Box 1.0
$s Bet	$s Back	$s Not Bet
$50.00	$76.75
$50.00	$96.37	$26.75
$50.00	$57.80	$73.12
$50.00	$69.94	$80.91
$50.00	$14.53	$100.85
$50.00	$46.00	$65.37
$50.00	$83.78	$61.37
$50.00	$44.17	$95.15
$50.00	$94.85	$89.32
$50.00	$84.52	$134.17
$50.00	$16.20	$168.69
Total Bankroll:		$184.89
Starting Bankroll:		$50.00
Gain/Loss:		269.77%

Against this:

Box 2.0
$s Bet	$s Back	$s Not Bet
$50.00	$76.75
$50.00	$96.37	$26.75
$50.00	$57.80	$73.12
$50.00	$97.65	$80.91
$50.00	$38.91	$128.56
$50.00	$46.00	$117.46
$50.00	$69.43	$113.46
$50.00	$44.17	$132.89
$50.00	$94.85	$127.06
$50.00	$96.04	$171.91
$50.00	$57.72	$217.94
Total Bankroll:		$275.66
Starting Bankroll:		$50.00
Gain/Loss:		451.32%

The most important thing to note is actually not the increased winnings, but the decreased losses. There is nothing worse than losing virtually everything you bet, as was the case in Weeks 5 and 11. I don't know about you, but I hate losing. I would much rather lose 22% than 71% in Week 5. This past week, had I accounted for financials, the top five picks would have looked like this:

1. WAS +10.5 v. DAL Away	44.0
2. HOU -1 v. NO @Home x2!	40.0
3. MIA +10 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon	40.0
4. NYG -2.5 v. DET Away	41.0
5. OAK +5 v. MIN Away x2!	38.0

Suddenly, the heavy NO pick switches side to a HOU pick, and the DET dog pick becomes a bet on a strong NYG team. Both games cover, HOU v NO is still a double bet (and thus a double winner), and I end the week +15% instead of -68%.

Look out for more in depth analysis of this weeks games today after the Football Outsider DVOAs are released and I calculate this week's "What Would Wall Street Do" power rankings.