Showing posts with label week 11 2007. Show all posts
Showing posts with label week 11 2007. Show all posts
Monday, November 19, 2007
Week 11 - Congrats to the Cap
I hate losing, Cappy, but I have to give congrats. Excellent picking and intuition this week. I shake my fist at you!
Week 11 - Box's Results - Down Dog, Down
So, much like the state of the stock market, the historical trends are being bucked week in and week out this season. Typically, underdogs are much safer bets. This year, favorites are just mauling the dogs. The big spreads, with the exception of NE (a bet against NE is like lighting your money on fire), went down for the most part - WAS, KC, MIA, NYJ all played up to parity levels, winning or pushing with spreads greater than 9. The small spreads and wildcard games are ALL going in favorite favor - JAC, TB, HOU, MIN, NYG, STL, SEA. Incidentally, the beta and alpha for most of these teams are in the bottom half, and those that are in the top half (STL and HOU, for instance) are there because the play consistently POORLY, not well.
So here are the Box's results:
As you can see, a rough week. I am still up mildly for the year, though much like the credit fear on Wall Street, the Box has "favorite fear" going into the next few weeks. I expect another week of big spreads (DAL vs NYJ, IND vs ATL, SEA vs STL, NE vs whoever they play) and favorite heavy football.
I doing a little digging, here are the average Sharpe/Alpha/Beta rank differentials for each of my picks this week: (note that the ranks are weighted Sharpe x1, Alpha x1, and Beta x2, since Sharpe and Alpha measure essentially the same thing)
WAS, MIA, and OAK all agree with the Box's original picks. The games that don't agree, GB and HOU, both disagree in large ways. In the NO game, one which we discussed at length this week, the statistics favor NO by a slight margin, predicting a NO win by under 1.5. On a statistical level, NO is the better bet. However, HOU has a HUGE advantage in financial scores - almost entirely due to its beta (volatility). If I dig deeper, I find that NO's points per game (PPG) average has steady increased from a consistent average of 12 ppg spiking with a upward trend starting in week 7 and a new average of 22 ppg. NO's opponents during this period: ATL, SF, JAC, STL. 3 out of the 4 games are the weakest teams in the NFL, while JAC is a wildcard team with terrible volatility. On HOU side of the ball, they have played almost every game at the same level, scoring an average ppg of roughly 22 from virtually week 1 forward. And HOU is doing so in a very competitive AFC South, playing IND, TEN, and JAC. It would seem to me that HOU's advantage is not an aberration, and may actually indicate a HOU bet is the safer bet. But let's look at GB v CAR.
GB by the financials is a heavy favorite, and rightly so. They have been pretty dominant in the NFC this year, able to score against almost every opponent they've played. According to the rankings, CAR offers ever so slightly more bang for the buck in their Alpha score, but GB is still utterly dominant. The biggest difference between GB v CAR and NO v HOU is the spread. NO v HOU is basically a pick 'em, and therefore the financials are far more useful than the statistics. There is no metric I have yet found that supports GB giving 9.5 to CAR - by any measure, that spread seems to be overblown.
I think the conclusion I can draw is that small spreads favor financial rankings, where large spreads favor statistical rankings. I may try to back test and implement a new module for this week (despite the short week) that calculates win ratios for small margin games if I use just financial scores. If I can improve my win rate by 2-4% by doing so, my overall win rate will eclipse the long sought after 60%.
Because of the short week, I'll be posting heavily tomorrow and Wed, so keep an eye out.
So here are the Box's results:
| Results for Week 11 |
| Spread: NO +1 (-110) v. HOU - $10.70 wins $0.00 |
| Spread: CAR +9.5 (-110) v. GB - $9.10 wins $0.00 |
| Spread: OAK +5 (-105) v. MIN - $8.80 wins $0.00 |
| Spread: WAS +10.5 (-110) v. DAL - $5.67 wins $10.82 |
| Spread: MIA +10 (-110) v. PHI - $5.03 wins $5.03 |
| Parlay: PIT (-450) v. NYJ, DAL (-550) v. WAS, GB (-450) v. CAR, CIN (-165) v. ARI, CLE (-145) v. BAL - $5.56 wins $0.00 |
| Bet Totals: | $44.86 |
| Potential Winnings: | $57.60 |
| Payouts: | $15.85 |
| Actual Profit: | -$29.01 |
| %s: Week 11 | -64.67% |
As you can see, a rough week. I am still up mildly for the year, though much like the credit fear on Wall Street, the Box has "favorite fear" going into the next few weeks. I expect another week of big spreads (DAL vs NYJ, IND vs ATL, SEA vs STL, NE vs whoever they play) and favorite heavy football.
I doing a little digging, here are the average Sharpe/Alpha/Beta rank differentials for each of my picks this week: (note that the ranks are weighted Sharpe x1, Alpha x1, and Beta x2, since Sharpe and Alpha measure essentially the same thing)
| Pick: | WAS | Opp: | DAL |
| Pick: | 13.75 | Diff: | 2.50 |
| Opp: | 16.25 | Adv: | WAS |
| Pick: | NO | Opp: | HOU |
| Pick: | 20.75 | Diff: | -14.75 |
| Opp: | 6 | Adv: | HOU |
| Pick: | MIA | Opp: | PHI |
| Pick: | 19 | Diff: | 0.00 |
| Opp: | 19 | Adv: | MIA |
| Pick: | OAK | Opp: | MIN |
| Pick: | 11 | Diff: | 3.25 |
| Opp: | 14.25 | Adv: | OAK |
| Pick: | CAR | Opp: | GB |
| Pick: | 18 | Diff: | -7.50 |
| Opp: | 10.5 | Adv: | GB |
WAS, MIA, and OAK all agree with the Box's original picks. The games that don't agree, GB and HOU, both disagree in large ways. In the NO game, one which we discussed at length this week, the statistics favor NO by a slight margin, predicting a NO win by under 1.5. On a statistical level, NO is the better bet. However, HOU has a HUGE advantage in financial scores - almost entirely due to its beta (volatility). If I dig deeper, I find that NO's points per game (PPG) average has steady increased from a consistent average of 12 ppg spiking with a upward trend starting in week 7 and a new average of 22 ppg. NO's opponents during this period: ATL, SF, JAC, STL. 3 out of the 4 games are the weakest teams in the NFL, while JAC is a wildcard team with terrible volatility. On HOU side of the ball, they have played almost every game at the same level, scoring an average ppg of roughly 22 from virtually week 1 forward. And HOU is doing so in a very competitive AFC South, playing IND, TEN, and JAC. It would seem to me that HOU's advantage is not an aberration, and may actually indicate a HOU bet is the safer bet. But let's look at GB v CAR.
GB by the financials is a heavy favorite, and rightly so. They have been pretty dominant in the NFC this year, able to score against almost every opponent they've played. According to the rankings, CAR offers ever so slightly more bang for the buck in their Alpha score, but GB is still utterly dominant. The biggest difference between GB v CAR and NO v HOU is the spread. NO v HOU is basically a pick 'em, and therefore the financials are far more useful than the statistics. There is no metric I have yet found that supports GB giving 9.5 to CAR - by any measure, that spread seems to be overblown.
I think the conclusion I can draw is that small spreads favor financial rankings, where large spreads favor statistical rankings. I may try to back test and implement a new module for this week (despite the short week) that calculates win ratios for small margin games if I use just financial scores. If I can improve my win rate by 2-4% by doing so, my overall win rate will eclipse the long sought after 60%.
Because of the short week, I'll be posting heavily tomorrow and Wed, so keep an eye out.
Week 11 - Put a Cap in yo' Weekly Roundup!
Well I've been waiting over a month to have a week like this. Meat and Meade for all my men! I don't know if this was a fluke week, or finally turning past the learning curve but yours truly successfully capped almost every game this week. The only one I know I missed was the Raiders game, which unfortunately I had in my parlay. Using a 4-team teaser as a backup worked brilliantly however, as OAK covered their +10.5, even though they lost vs. their base spread of +4.5.
I am particularly proud of the games I elected to avoid (see last post). Getting out of the way of SD away at JAX with Garrard back, MIA (who pushed) with Beck in his first start, and Buffalo trying to keep the game within 16 points made my week. Sticking to the games I had the least concern about was definitely a winning strategy this week.
The Good:
1. WAS +11 vs DAL paid $5.71 profit
2. STL -3 vs SF paid $5.71 profit
3. [KC +20.5 vs IND -- NE -10 vs BUF -- WAS +17 vs DAL -- OAK +10.5 vs MIN] paid $18.00 profit.
The Bad:
OAK +4.5 vs MIN lost $6.00
Total Bets = $24.00
Total Profit = $23.42
Return = 98%
If I had the stones, I would hit the moneyline on the underdog Titans tonight in Denver, but I'm walking away from the table up for this week.
I am particularly proud of the games I elected to avoid (see last post). Getting out of the way of SD away at JAX with Garrard back, MIA (who pushed) with Beck in his first start, and Buffalo trying to keep the game within 16 points made my week. Sticking to the games I had the least concern about was definitely a winning strategy this week.
The Good:
1. WAS +11 vs DAL paid $5.71 profit
2. STL -3 vs SF paid $5.71 profit
3. [KC +20.5 vs IND -- NE -10 vs BUF -- WAS +17 vs DAL -- OAK +10.5 vs MIN] paid $18.00 profit.
The Bad:
OAK +4.5 vs MIN lost $6.00
Total Bets = $24.00
Total Profit = $23.42
Return = 98%
If I had the stones, I would hit the moneyline on the underdog Titans tonight in Denver, but I'm walking away from the table up for this week.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Week 11 - Mad Capper Final Bets
After much deliberation, here are my winners!
1. 6 point teaser: kc +20.5 -- NE -10 -- OAK +10.5 -- WAS +17
2. 3 team parlay: Oak +4.5 -- STL -3 -- TEN +2
Straight Bets:
3. STL -3 at SF
4. WAS +11 vs. DAL
I tried to stick within the box's calls, my only outside pick was stl over sf. but a lot of the games began to scare me as i thought about them more. i crossed out picking against NE, picking with MIA (John Beck's first start, Ricky Williams return), and picking against JAX at home.
Everything else is by the box, and picks I agreed with up front! bring home the bacon baby!
1. 6 point teaser: kc +20.5 -- NE -10 -- OAK +10.5 -- WAS +17
2. 3 team parlay: Oak +4.5 -- STL -3 -- TEN +2
Straight Bets:
3. STL -3 at SF
4. WAS +11 vs. DAL
I tried to stick within the box's calls, my only outside pick was stl over sf. but a lot of the games began to scare me as i thought about them more. i crossed out picking against NE, picking with MIA (John Beck's first start, Ricky Williams return), and picking against JAX at home.
Everything else is by the box, and picks I agreed with up front! bring home the bacon baby!
Friday, November 16, 2007
Week 11 - Some Clarification on the Financial Rankings
Hopefully this will serve as a useful explanation for how to use some of the financial rankings.
Let me repost the financial rankings side by side with the statistical rankings to better clarify how to use and read them both. I've highlighted the NO v. HOU game, a game in which the Box chooses NO and suggests a double bet.
First thing to consider is HOW the Box chooses NO. Highlighted in red are the best ranking in each category between NO and HOU. NO, as you can see, has a statistical advantage, even though it's slight. If the spread were in NO favor by anything but the slimmest margin, there is an excellent chance the system would pick HOU to cover because there is such a small statistical advantage. Right now, because the spread is in HOU favor, the Box will pick NO all day long on a statistical level. The initial picks are based entirely on statistics - ability to score (alpha and Sharpe) and volatility (beta) have little or nothing to do with a team's advantage over another team when going against the spread.
So that's how we picked NO in the first place. Sharpe, alpha, and beta are non factors in the initial pick. I've run some models that add each financial metric in various weightings, only to find that historically it performed worse in the last two seasons that my original statistics only approach. So, for the time being, NO is the pick, and the Box loves the underdog in general.
The "Double the Bet" (I'll call it DB for simplicity) suggestion that follows doesn't employ either Sharpe or alpha, though perhaps in the future it will. For now, it uses only beta (volatility). More than that, it uses the GAME beta, averaging the beta of the two teams. I do this because beta of a single entity in a matchup wouldn't make sense. If HOU played CHI, the 1st place beta versus the 32nd place beta, even though HOU is 1st and will likely play with the same consistency it's played all season, CHI could score 40 points or 5 points and are such a wildcard, the game could go either way. When I figure the beta of the game, it makes it seem like much less of a sure bet.
The DB takes a given parameter (number of bets I want to place, in this case), and tells me which, if any, of the top picks, are low enough in game beta to have outcomes that are more predictable. There are (and will be) weeks that DB suggests doubling none of my bets, since they are all too volatile. However, you can't argue with the results - since 2006, the DB record in suggested doubles is 37 - 18, a staggering 67% win rate. An argument could be made to ONLY bet the DB games, but what's the fun in that?
Alpha and Sharpe have been more or less discarded from spread bets, as I have yet to find any historical win rate that even matches up to the purely statistical system I have in place. What they are useful in determining, however, are moneyline winners. I've been working on the perfect combination of the two, but right now, I have complete a DB model for moneyline bets that would have won 5 times as much money since Week 3 on my moneyline choices. Outside of moneyline, alpha and Sharpe act as useful guides in determining the value of a team. I'm hoping to show that alpha bets are better for parlays and over/unders, while Sharpe are useful in moneyline parlays. Making picks has been the easy part for the system, the hard part has been prioritizing the picks such that I have the most winners at the top - this is where the financials can be the most utilized.
So when you're considering your moneyline parlays, look at the financials as a guide to help weed out some of the less favorable options.
Let me repost the financial rankings side by side with the statistical rankings to better clarify how to use and read them both. I've highlighted the NO v. HOU game, a game in which the Box chooses NO and suggests a double bet.
| Stat | Sharpe | Alpha | Beta | |
| Ranking | Rank | Rank | Rank | |
| ARI | 17 | 15 | 13 | 3 |
| ATL | 25 | 30 | 32 | 30 |
| BAL | 20 | 27 | 19 | 11 |
| BUF | 18 | 28 | 30 | 7 |
| CAR | 27 | 25 | 11 | 18 |
| CHI | 28 | 22 | 28 | 32 |
| CIN | 16 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| CLE | 14 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| DAL | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31 |
| DEN | 19 | 26 | 25 | 2 |
| DET | 22 | 8 | 6 | 22 |
| GB | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 |
| HOU | 23 | 12 | 10 | 1 |
| IND | 2 | 3 | 3 | 25 |
| JAC | 7 | 16 | 27 | 23 |
| KC | 24 | 29 | 31 | 29 |
| MIA | 26 | 19 | 15 | 21 |
| MIN | 15 | 20 | 17 | 10 |
| NE | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| NO | 21 | 11 | 24 | 24 |
| NYG | 11 | 7 | 4 | 27 |
| NYJ | 29 | 24 | 14 | 14 |
| OAK | 31 | 23 | 9 | 6 |
| PHI | 12 | 14 | 22 | 20 |
| PIT | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
| SD | 9 | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| SEA | 10 | 13 | 16 | 9 |
| SF | 32 | 32 | 23 | 15 |
| STL | 30 | 31 | 29 | 5 |
| TB | 6 | 21 | 26 | 19 |
| TEN | 8 | 17 | 20 | 16 |
| WAS | 13 | 18 | 21 | 8 |
First thing to consider is HOW the Box chooses NO. Highlighted in red are the best ranking in each category between NO and HOU. NO, as you can see, has a statistical advantage, even though it's slight. If the spread were in NO favor by anything but the slimmest margin, there is an excellent chance the system would pick HOU to cover because there is such a small statistical advantage. Right now, because the spread is in HOU favor, the Box will pick NO all day long on a statistical level. The initial picks are based entirely on statistics - ability to score (alpha and Sharpe) and volatility (beta) have little or nothing to do with a team's advantage over another team when going against the spread.
So that's how we picked NO in the first place. Sharpe, alpha, and beta are non factors in the initial pick. I've run some models that add each financial metric in various weightings, only to find that historically it performed worse in the last two seasons that my original statistics only approach. So, for the time being, NO is the pick, and the Box loves the underdog in general.
The "Double the Bet" (I'll call it DB for simplicity) suggestion that follows doesn't employ either Sharpe or alpha, though perhaps in the future it will. For now, it uses only beta (volatility). More than that, it uses the GAME beta, averaging the beta of the two teams. I do this because beta of a single entity in a matchup wouldn't make sense. If HOU played CHI, the 1st place beta versus the 32nd place beta, even though HOU is 1st and will likely play with the same consistency it's played all season, CHI could score 40 points or 5 points and are such a wildcard, the game could go either way. When I figure the beta of the game, it makes it seem like much less of a sure bet.
The DB takes a given parameter (number of bets I want to place, in this case), and tells me which, if any, of the top picks, are low enough in game beta to have outcomes that are more predictable. There are (and will be) weeks that DB suggests doubling none of my bets, since they are all too volatile. However, you can't argue with the results - since 2006, the DB record in suggested doubles is 37 - 18, a staggering 67% win rate. An argument could be made to ONLY bet the DB games, but what's the fun in that?
Alpha and Sharpe have been more or less discarded from spread bets, as I have yet to find any historical win rate that even matches up to the purely statistical system I have in place. What they are useful in determining, however, are moneyline winners. I've been working on the perfect combination of the two, but right now, I have complete a DB model for moneyline bets that would have won 5 times as much money since Week 3 on my moneyline choices. Outside of moneyline, alpha and Sharpe act as useful guides in determining the value of a team. I'm hoping to show that alpha bets are better for parlays and over/unders, while Sharpe are useful in moneyline parlays. Making picks has been the easy part for the system, the hard part has been prioritizing the picks such that I have the most winners at the top - this is where the financials can be the most utilized.
So when you're considering your moneyline parlays, look at the financials as a guide to help weed out some of the less favorable options.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Week 11 - Box's Final Bets
| Bets for Week 11 |
| Spread: NO +1 (-110) v. HOU - $10.70 to win $9.73 |
| Spread: CAR +9.5 (-110) v. GB - $9.10 to win $8.27 |
| Spread: OAK +5 (-105) v. MIN - $8.80 to win $8.80 |
| Spread: WAS +10.5 (-110) v. DAL - $5.67 to win $5.15 |
| Spread: MIA +10 (-110) v. PHI - $5.03 to win $4.57 |
| Parlay: PIT (-450) v. NYJ, DAL (-550) v. WAS, GB (-450) v. CAR, CIN (-165) v. ARI, CLE (-145) v. BAL - $5.56 to win $21.08 |
| Bet Totals: | $44.86 |
| Potential Winnings: | $57.60 |
The most noticeable difference to my new conservative but historically profitable approach: bet totals remain the same or slightly higher, and potential winnings are lower. The parlay was the last of my purely fun parlays - I have no self control. From this point on, it's discipline and bottom line. Hooray capitalism!
Editor's note: A newly developed single game bet (moneyline, spread, over/under) may be used next week for fun despite claims of "no more fun bets". Hooray bald face lying!
Week 11 - Saintly Saints, Flaccid Texans
That's right, I said flaccid.
So, you ask a good question, but I of course have an amazing answer.
The way the double down is figured is Beta only - so I throw Sharpe and Alpha out the window, since they are useful primarily in the moneyline bets. The system picks NO based on the statistics - but the double down is chosen by picking the best possible GAME beta (HOU beta + NO beta). So thanks to HOU being a solidly consistent team, it brings down the overall beta rank. If the game beta ranks in the top 50% of games, PLUS the pick is one of the top 5, the system suggest a bet doubling.
My fear in this game is the return of Schaub and Johnson at the same time - it inevitably will alter the beta if they perform really well, since there will be some volatility. This makes this double down risky, but a necessary evil - hard to argue with results (17x more money on double down bets in the last two years). Fortunately, I have doubles on two other top 5 games, so hopefully something hits.
So, you ask a good question, but I of course have an amazing answer.
The way the double down is figured is Beta only - so I throw Sharpe and Alpha out the window, since they are useful primarily in the moneyline bets. The system picks NO based on the statistics - but the double down is chosen by picking the best possible GAME beta (HOU beta + NO beta). So thanks to HOU being a solidly consistent team, it brings down the overall beta rank. If the game beta ranks in the top 50% of games, PLUS the pick is one of the top 5, the system suggest a bet doubling.
My fear in this game is the return of Schaub and Johnson at the same time - it inevitably will alter the beta if they perform really well, since there will be some volatility. This makes this double down risky, but a necessary evil - hard to argue with results (17x more money on double down bets in the last two years). Fortunately, I have doubles on two other top 5 games, so hopefully something hits.
Week 11 - Damnable Saints
Excelius-
Let's talk Saints vs Texans...
NO is ranked as a more volatile, less productive (alpha, sharpe, beta) team than HOU. Why do you not only pick the Saints, but suggest doubling down on them?
Let's talk Saints vs Texans...
NO is ranked as a more volatile, less productive (alpha, sharpe, beta) team than HOU. Why do you not only pick the Saints, but suggest doubling down on them?
Week 11 - Spread 'Em and Show Me the Box
Not much innuendo in that title.
So, just as an FYI Capper, here are the Box's "Predicted" spreads based on the stats. I'd be interested to see how big the differences are from the Box spreads - maybe you could have a Cap vs. The Box parlay.
Just at a glance, it looks like CAR would be your pick of the week if the Box were Vegas. Which also agrees with what the Box suggests - CAR is the 4th ranked pick, and a suggested double down bet based on the Beta.
So, just as an FYI Capper, here are the Box's "Predicted" spreads based on the stats. I'd be interested to see how big the differences are from the Box spreads - maybe you could have a Cap vs. The Box parlay.
| Favorite | Where | Vegas | Box | Dog |
| JAC | Home | -3.0 | -0.5 | SD |
| IND | Home | -14.5 | -4.8 | KC |
| CIN | Home | -3.0 | -2.3 | ARI |
| CLE | Away | -2.5 | -1.6 | BAL |
| TB | Away | -3.0 | -1.3 | ATL |
| HOU | Home | -1.0 | 1.3 | NO |
| GB | Home | -9.5 | -5.5 | CAR |
| MIN | Home | -5.0 | -2.8 | OAK |
| PHI | Home | -10.0 | -1.7 | MIA |
| NYG | Away | -2.5 | -2.2 | DET |
| PIT | Away | -9.5 | -1.9 | NYJ |
| DAL | Home | -10.5 | -4.4 | WAS |
| STL | Away | -2.5 | -1.7 | SF |
| SEA | Home | -5.5 | -3.1 | CHI |
| NE | Away | -16.0 | -4.1 | BUF |
| DEN | Home | -2.0 | 0.8 | TEN |
Just at a glance, it looks like CAR would be your pick of the week if the Box were Vegas. Which also agrees with what the Box suggests - CAR is the 4th ranked pick, and a suggested double down bet based on the Beta.
Week 11 - Moneyline Ranks, Brown Is the New Black
What's interesting about the moneyline ranks, having completed the financial metric module to the Black Box (if you haven't been reading, Alpha, Beta, and Sharpe ratios), is the apparent lack of top tier teams in the top 5. This is for 2 reasons: 1.) time - I haven't had enough time with the financial rankings to make the most efficient use of them, and 2.) cost - my old module that considers the lay (cost to place the bet) is outdated now. You'll notice that it's low cost games at the top and high cost at the bottom, which shouldn't necessarily be the case - it should be a mixture depending on a volatility to cost ratio or something similar. This requires some updating, I'll shoot for updates by next Thursday's moneyline article.
Here are the moneyline rankings (not listed are OFF games):
A couple of away teams at the top, but I really like the top 5. Cleveland's ability to score should keep this game well out of Baltimore's reach, and the game is cheap right now. The wildcard in this game will be Boller (did I just say Boller was a wildcard?). If Boller comes out strong, they will keep Cleveland on its toes, though I don't anticipate this being much of a game. Cleveland's Sharpe and Alpha rank in the top 10 in the league, indicating that they have been outplaying themselves, despite a low ranking on the Beta (volatility) score. TEN is another quality pick, I think, though I'm worried this may the trap game of the week. I don't bet deep into moneylines, unless I'm doing a parlay, but the top two seem like strong bets. TEN's D will give DEN a hard time, but it's up to Vince Young to really make this a game. CIN is the only team that ranks in the top 13 team for all the financials, and this game may actually be the lock of the week for the money once I finish a new moneyline ranking module.
I've updated the spreads with today's lines in the Spread rankings, so here are my matchups as picked by the Box (where it says "x2!", the Box suggest doubling the bet as it's a low volatility, high return game; where it says "Bet Soon", it indicates a pushable line, and a move either way could affect your bet):
Almost no changes from Tuesday's post, but I did some digging, and have decided to drastically change my betting patterns. I made the rookie mistake of betting "fun" games - teasers and parlays with big payouts and low chances. If I had been sticking to my top 5 picks only all season, my returns go from this:
to THIS:
I'm giving up OVER 250% FOR FUN. Unacceptable. Note to self: stick to the basics, stop sucking.
Final bets have been made, I'll post them here tomorrow.
Here are the moneyline rankings (not listed are OFF games):
| THE PICKS |
| * considers lay in pick order |
| 1. CLE -145 v. BAL Away |
| 2. TEN +130 v. DEN Away |
| 3. CIN -165 v. ARI @Home |
| 4. STL -145 v. SF @Home |
| 5. JAC -145 v. SD @Home |
| 6. NYG -140 v. DET Away |
| 7. SEA -260 v. CHI Away |
| 8. TB -175 v. ATL Away |
| 9. GB -450 v. CAR Away |
| 10. MIN -245 v. OAK @Home |
| 11. DAL -550 v. WAS @Home |
| 12. PHI -520 v. MIA Away |
| 13. PIT -450 v. NYJ @Home |
A couple of away teams at the top, but I really like the top 5. Cleveland's ability to score should keep this game well out of Baltimore's reach, and the game is cheap right now. The wildcard in this game will be Boller (did I just say Boller was a wildcard?). If Boller comes out strong, they will keep Cleveland on its toes, though I don't anticipate this being much of a game. Cleveland's Sharpe and Alpha rank in the top 10 in the league, indicating that they have been outplaying themselves, despite a low ranking on the Beta (volatility) score. TEN is another quality pick, I think, though I'm worried this may the trap game of the week. I don't bet deep into moneylines, unless I'm doing a parlay, but the top two seem like strong bets. TEN's D will give DEN a hard time, but it's up to Vince Young to really make this a game. CIN is the only team that ranks in the top 13 team for all the financials, and this game may actually be the lock of the week for the money once I finish a new moneyline ranking module.
I've updated the spreads with today's lines in the Spread rankings, so here are my matchups as picked by the Box (where it says "x2!", the Box suggest doubling the bet as it's a low volatility, high return game; where it says "Bet Soon", it indicates a pushable line, and a move either way could affect your bet):
| 1. WAS +10.5 v. DAL Away |
| 2. NO +1 v. HOU Away x2! |
| 3. MIA +10 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon |
| 4. CAR +9.5 v. GB Away x2! |
| 5. OAK +5 v. MIN Away x2! |
| 6. DET +2.5 v. NYG @Home |
| 7. NYJ +9.5 v. PIT @Home |
| 8. SF +2.5 v. STL @Home |
| 9. CHI +5.5 v. SEA Away |
| 10. SD +3 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon |
| 11. TEN +2 v. DEN Away |
| 12. ARI +3 v. CIN Away - Bet Soon |
| 13. KC +14.5 v. IND Away |
| 14. ATL +3 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon |
| 15. BAL +2.5 v. CLE @Home |
| 16. BUF +16 v. NE @Home - Bet Soon |
Almost no changes from Tuesday's post, but I did some digging, and have decided to drastically change my betting patterns. I made the rookie mistake of betting "fun" games - teasers and parlays with big payouts and low chances. If I had been sticking to my top 5 picks only all season, my returns go from this:
| Initial $s: | $139.16 |
| Bet Totals: | $371.00 |
| Potential Winnings: | $771.96 |
| Payouts: | $429.48 |
| Actual Profit: | $58.48 |
| Gain/Loss | 42.02% |
to THIS:
| Week | Bets | Return | Profit | Balance | % Gain/Loss |
| Initial | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $50.00 | 0% |
| Week 1 | $40.00 | $60.74 | $20.74 | $70.74 | 41% |
| Week 2 | $40.00 | $63.10 | $23.10 | $93.84 | 88% |
| Week 3 | $40.00 | $46.01 | $6.01 | $99.85 | 100% |
| Week 4 | $56.60 | $78.67 | $22.07 | $121.92 | 144% |
| Week 5 | $63.03 | $17.99 | ($45.04) | $76.88 | 54% |
| Week 6 | $62.51 | $57.87 | ($4.64) | $72.24 | 44% |
| Week 7 | $65.00 | $108.92 | $43.92 | $116.16 | 132% |
| Week 8 | $64.60 | $58.25 | ($6.35) | $109.81 | 120% |
| Week 9 | $55.63 | $105.54 | $49.91 | $159.72 | 219% |
| Week 10 | $57.38 | $96.94 | $39.56 | $199.28 | 299% |
| Account Load: | $50.00 | ||||
| Balance: | $199.28 | ||||
| Profit: | $149.28 | ||||
| Gain/Loss: | 299% |
I'm giving up OVER 250% FOR FUN. Unacceptable. Note to self: stick to the basics, stop sucking.
Final bets have been made, I'll post them here tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Week 11- Delta Force - Vegas vs The Capper
VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER............... DIFF.
SD (+3) at JAX....... SD (-3)...................... 6.0
KC (+14) at IND...... KC (+8)...................... 6.0
OAK (+5.5) at MIN.... OAK (+2)..................... 3.5
TB (-3) at ATL ...... CLE (-6)..................... 3.0
ARI (-3) at CIN...... ARI (-2)..................... 1.0
MIA (+10) at PHI..... MIA (+5)..................... 5.0
NO (even) at HOU .... NO (+1)...................... 1.0
CAR (+9.5)at GB...... CAR (11)..................... 2.5
NYG (-2.5) at DET.... NYG (-3)..................... 0.5
PIT (-9.5) at NYJ.... PIT (-12).................... 2.5
WAS (-10.5) at DAL... dal (-7) .................... 3.5
STL (-2) at SF....... STL (-4)..................... 2.0
CHI (+5.5) at SEA.... CHI (+2)..................... 3.5
NE (-15.5) at BUF.... NE (-10)..................... 5.5
TEN (+2) at DEN...... TEN (-4)..................... 6.0
Excelius, the two picks you didn't like in prelim didn't really pan out when the Vegas spreads came out. Hou vs NO is a pick-em (i figured NO would be favored), and ARI is favored by more than I figured. Both those games are probably out for me.
However! Check out the red ink! So many games with more than a 3-point delta, meaning lots of discrepancies between my opinions and those of other gamblers. Not only that, but the box agrees with each of them! This must be the first time in our short history we've agreed 100%. I'm going to throw in an extra pick to make it my top 9:
1. WAS +10.5 at DAL
2. KC +14 at IND
3. SD +3 at JAX
4. TEN +2 at DEN
5. BUF +15.5 vs NE
6. OAK +5.5 at MIN
7. CHI +5.5 at SEA
8. MIA +10 at PHI
*Alternates:
STL -2 at SF
GB -9.5 vs. CAR
SD (+3) at JAX....... SD (-3)...................... 6.0
KC (+14) at IND...... KC (+8)...................... 6.0
OAK (+5.5) at MIN.... OAK (+2)..................... 3.5
TB (-3) at ATL ...... CLE (-6)..................... 3.0
ARI (-3) at CIN...... ARI (-2)..................... 1.0
MIA (+10) at PHI..... MIA (+5)..................... 5.0
NO (even) at HOU .... NO (+1)...................... 1.0
CAR (+9.5)at GB...... CAR (11)..................... 2.5
NYG (-2.5) at DET.... NYG (-3)..................... 0.5
PIT (-9.5) at NYJ.... PIT (-12).................... 2.5
WAS (-10.5) at DAL... dal (-7) .................... 3.5
STL (-2) at SF....... STL (-4)..................... 2.0
CHI (+5.5) at SEA.... CHI (+2)..................... 3.5
NE (-15.5) at BUF.... NE (-10)..................... 5.5
TEN (+2) at DEN...... TEN (-4)..................... 6.0
Excelius, the two picks you didn't like in prelim didn't really pan out when the Vegas spreads came out. Hou vs NO is a pick-em (i figured NO would be favored), and ARI is favored by more than I figured. Both those games are probably out for me.
However! Check out the red ink! So many games with more than a 3-point delta, meaning lots of discrepancies between my opinions and those of other gamblers. Not only that, but the box agrees with each of them! This must be the first time in our short history we've agreed 100%. I'm going to throw in an extra pick to make it my top 9:
1. WAS +10.5 at DAL
2. KC +14 at IND
3. SD +3 at JAX
4. TEN +2 at DEN
5. BUF +15.5 vs NE
6. OAK +5.5 at MIN
7. CHI +5.5 at SEA
8. MIA +10 at PHI
*Alternates:
STL -2 at SF
GB -9.5 vs. CAR
Week 11 - SPAM Rankings - Slight Change to Beta Algorithm
So here in Boxland, there are slight tweaks that happen on a constant basis. As of today, there is an ever so slight tweak to the Beta algorithm that had a minor impact on double down bets (went from winning 15X more in the last 2 year span to 17X more on the games on which bets are doubled), and had virtually no other effect. I will repost the game rankings with updated Vegas spreads later today, but for now we'll take a look at the Financial Rankings.
Some notes on how these are figured and what they mean, in case you're new to this blog or these metrics:
1.) Sharpe Ratio - a measure of risk adjusted performance in finance, I define performance here as the moving average of points scored per game. This is the closest to "pundit" rankings out of the financials, as it is a purely point driven derivative.
2.) Beta - a measure of volatility in finance. I am using a bastardized version of DVOA, the genius work of the team at Football Outsiders (a MUST read) in figuring this, and it has, with some success, measured how consistent teams have performed. It does NOT measure how good the team is - a team can be consistently BAD and therefore have "low volatility".
3.) Alpha - another measure of risk adjusted performance, but uses Beta in its algorithm, and therefore uses DVOA rather than a pure point performance. In a way, this measures "bang for your buck" in terms of a team's ability to "outperform" it's statistics or expected performance. Usually has the most interesting results.
So with that said, here are the rankings (organized by team, not by rank):
What pops out at me is the Alpha score - according to Alpha, CIN is the number five overall team. It's hard for me to believe that CIN would provide so much bang for your buck, but if nothing else, they have consistently scored this season. And more surprising to me is that NE is actually SECOND in SOMETHING this year. I think it's actually just a function of competition - DAL has none in the NFC, and NE has... well, none, but at least more than DAL.
The beta rankings are close to expected, though I'm a bit surprised by HOU. Despite QB issues and Andre Johnson being out, they've been very consistent this year. I expect them to drop with the return of Schaub and Johnson this week, as it may throw off the average. On the bottom half, I'm mildly shocked at the number of top tier teams - CLE, DAL, DET, IND (after the last two weeks), JAC, NO, and NYG - all playoff contenders or locks, all playing with some inconsistencies. This can be attributed in part to injuries (IND, JAC), and in part to inability to put together back to back weeks (NO, NYG, DET). DAL and CLE are mysteries to me, since DAL seems to be pretty steady and CLE has been playing at such a high level. My best guess is the dropoff in points on DAL part, which has been steady over the season, and a terrible Week 1 performance from CLE keeping them down. I may have to add a parameter that weights current weeks greater than early weeks, but the sample size in a season is already so small, I'm hesitant to do so.
A note if you're betting this week, the Alpha and Sharpe are nice tools for moneyline bets. The Beta is a nice overall tool if you're worried about your team's consistency (or as Mad Capper puts it, "multiple personality syndrome"). As noted, some top tier teams all rank in the bottom half of Beta, indicating a bet on any of them could lead to trouble depending on which version of the team shows up. Look out tomorrow for the updated game rankings and best bets.
Some notes on how these are figured and what they mean, in case you're new to this blog or these metrics:
1.) Sharpe Ratio - a measure of risk adjusted performance in finance, I define performance here as the moving average of points scored per game. This is the closest to "pundit" rankings out of the financials, as it is a purely point driven derivative.
2.) Beta - a measure of volatility in finance. I am using a bastardized version of DVOA, the genius work of the team at Football Outsiders (a MUST read) in figuring this, and it has, with some success, measured how consistent teams have performed. It does NOT measure how good the team is - a team can be consistently BAD and therefore have "low volatility".
3.) Alpha - another measure of risk adjusted performance, but uses Beta in its algorithm, and therefore uses DVOA rather than a pure point performance. In a way, this measures "bang for your buck" in terms of a team's ability to "outperform" it's statistics or expected performance. Usually has the most interesting results.
So with that said, here are the rankings (organized by team, not by rank):
| Sharpe | Alpha | Beta | |
| Team | Rank | Rank | Rank |
| ARI | 18 | 14 | 3 |
| ATL | 30 | 32 | 30 |
| BAL | 26 | 19 | 10 |
| BUF | 27 | 30 | 6 |
| CAR | 24 | 11 | 15 |
| CHI | 23 | 27 | 32 |
| CIN | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| CLE | 4 | 7 | 28 |
| DAL | 2 | 1 | 31 |
| DEN | 29 | 25 | 2 |
| DET | 7 | 6 | 23 |
| GB | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| HOU | 11 | 10 | 1 |
| IND | 3 | 3 | 25 |
| JAC | 19 | 28 | 22 |
| KC | 28 | 31 | 29 |
| MIA | 15 | 15 | 24 |
| MIN | 14 | 16 | 11 |
| NE | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| NO | 12 | 24 | 21 |
| NYG | 6 | 4 | 26 |
| NYJ | 25 | 13 | 16 |
| OAK | 20 | 9 | 4 |
| PHI | 17 | 22 | 20 |
| PIT | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| SD | 10 | 18 | 27 |
| SEA | 13 | 17 | 8 |
| SF | 31 | 23 | 14 |
| STL | 32 | 29 | 7 |
| TB | 22 | 26 | 19 |
| TEN | 16 | 20 | 17 |
| WAS | 21 | 21 | 9 |
What pops out at me is the Alpha score - according to Alpha, CIN is the number five overall team. It's hard for me to believe that CIN would provide so much bang for your buck, but if nothing else, they have consistently scored this season. And more surprising to me is that NE is actually SECOND in SOMETHING this year. I think it's actually just a function of competition - DAL has none in the NFC, and NE has... well, none, but at least more than DAL.
The beta rankings are close to expected, though I'm a bit surprised by HOU. Despite QB issues and Andre Johnson being out, they've been very consistent this year. I expect them to drop with the return of Schaub and Johnson this week, as it may throw off the average. On the bottom half, I'm mildly shocked at the number of top tier teams - CLE, DAL, DET, IND (after the last two weeks), JAC, NO, and NYG - all playoff contenders or locks, all playing with some inconsistencies. This can be attributed in part to injuries (IND, JAC), and in part to inability to put together back to back weeks (NO, NYG, DET). DAL and CLE are mysteries to me, since DAL seems to be pretty steady and CLE has been playing at such a high level. My best guess is the dropoff in points on DAL part, which has been steady over the season, and a terrible Week 1 performance from CLE keeping them down. I may have to add a parameter that weights current weeks greater than early weeks, but the sample size in a season is already so small, I'm hesitant to do so.
A note if you're betting this week, the Alpha and Sharpe are nice tools for moneyline bets. The Beta is a nice overall tool if you're worried about your team's consistency (or as Mad Capper puts it, "multiple personality syndrome"). As noted, some top tier teams all rank in the bottom half of Beta, indicating a bet on any of them could lead to trouble depending on which version of the team shows up. Look out tomorrow for the updated game rankings and best bets.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Week 11 - Cap In Yo'... Basset Hound
It's another dog filled week for the Box! I gotta say, on some of your caps there Cappy, you are getting pretty close. I think you even picked the trap game (I'm thinking ARI v. CIN is the trap this week, though it MAY be NO v. HOU). Some notes on the Box picks - where it says "x2!" after a pick, it indicates a Box suggested double down based on a low volatility game. Where it says "Bet Soon", it's indicating that the spread is currently pushable (ie, 3, 7, 10, 14...). It means any spread move is significant, since it requires an additional score or one less score to cover. Also, I've added, just for fun, the Box's suggested Over/Under this week. It may not become a regular thing, but I'm adding it for kicks this week. My fun pick this week may be a single game Spread/Moneyline/Over-Under parlay. Wheeee!
Here's what the Box has to say:
| THE PICKS | Over / |
| * considers lay in pick order | Under |
| 1. NO -0.01 v. HOU Away | 40.0 |
| 2. WAS +10.5 v. DAL Away x2! | 44.0 |
| 3. MIA +10 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon | 40.0 |
| 4. NYJ +9.5 v. PIT @Home | 41.5 |
| 5. CAR +9.5 v. GB Away | 41.0 |
| 6. OAK +5.5 v. MIN Away | 38.0 |
| 7. SF +2 v. STL @Home | 33.0 |
| 8. SD +3 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon | 43.5 |
| 9. CHI +5.5 v. SEA Away | 40.0 |
| 10. DET +2.5 v. NYG @Home | 41.0 |
| 11. BAL +2.5 v. CLE @Home | 40.5 |
| 12. ARI +3 v. CIN Away - Bet Soon | 40.5 |
| 13. BUF +15.5 v. NE @Home | 46.5 |
| 14. TEN +2 v. DEN Away | 41.0 |
| 15. KC +14 v. IND Away - Bet Soon | 43.0 |
| 16. ATL +3 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon | 41.5 |
Now, the NO game is currently a pick 'em, but the Box doesn't get that, so I have to make it some number less than .5. I went with .01, since making it less than that (I tried all the way to .) didn't make a difference in the Box convictions.
My favorites for the Box this week are NO, NYJ, and CAR, all in the top 5. NO will be hell bent this week to punish someone for that embarrassing loss. I wouldn't be surprised if Drew comes out deep and doesn't stop. It'll be a shootout, but with a rusty Schaub, my money's on NO. NYJ is a.) not as bad as they seem, and b.) not good at all. I think that's the perfect combo, plus an Eric Mangini who's familiar with Big Ben, for a 3 point loss and a beatdown of the spread. CAR is similar to me, despite the QB problems. I think if the D plays anywhere near the way they played in the 1st quarter of the IND game, it's a game that ends with a 3 point loss and a beatdown of this massive spread.
My least favorites, BUF, SD, BAL, and SF. Firstly, betting against NE is like mailing a check to the North Pole. Somebody's getting rich, and it ain't me. I'm glad the pick is a distant 13th. For the SD game, it's not hard to figure out how to win: stack the box, laugh at Philip Rivers. Honestly, he's a step away from wearing a bonnet instead of a helmet. I would have loved a JAC pick out of the Box here, but it was not to be. BAL is another one - BAL?? It may end up being a good pick if Boller gets the ball. Wait, wait... did I just say that starting Boller is a GOOD thing? Ridiculous. I agree with you on the STL v. SF game, too - Alex Smith DOES wear a bonnet when he plays. Did you see him launch almost every ball about 5 yards above his receiver's head on Monday night? How did anyone think SF could play on Monday night? Or is that where they put the game that's over early enough to get to bed for work?
In other news, here are the Box's overall W/L record on the year, and then over the Box's lifetime (2 years). Room for improvement, but respectable (and even profitable) if I were betting every game:
| OVERALL RESULTS: 2007 |
| Through Week 10 |
| Win: 75 |
| Loss: 63 |
| Push: 6 |
| Overall Win %: 54.17% |
| OVERALL RESULTS |
| Through Week 10 |
| Win: 224 |
| Loss: 167 |
| Push: 9 |
| Overall Win %: 57.13% |
Week 11 - MadCapping and Prelim Picks
Week 11 descends... hopefully my bank account will not.
SD vs JAX: SD is definitely falling into the multiple personality disorder category, but I just don't trust Gray to lead JAX. With Indy losing, the division title is in sight for JAX, but I don't think they have the horses to get it done. SD -3
KC vs IND: Man Indy has a ton of injuries. Most of the line are backups, only Wayne is left in the receiver core and Freeney is out too. KC is a tough team, but B. Croyle is making his first start and the game is in Indy. Oh let's not forget that the Colts are awesome. IND -8.
OAK vs MIN: Two crapass teams. Atleast Min can run. Oh wait, Peterson tore his knee. Game's in MIN so let's give it to them. MIN -2.
CLE vs. BAL: You have to finally make CLE a favorite, don't you? Most improved team in the NFL, plus McNair's career is officially over. People are calling for Boller, and Billick might be on his way out. Even after Ray Lewis cold-cocked his teammates on national tv, blaming the offense's turnovers for their losing, they still coughed the ball up 5 times. CLE -4.
TB vs ATL: Atlanta's on a winning streak, watch out! just kidding. TB is still fighting for the division title, Garcia's still playing well, the D works, and Ernest Graham has been a great plug for their injured running game. Who's the QB for Atlanta anyway? TB -6.
ARI vs CIN: Cincy beat Baltimore last week, so they are on the rise, right? Wrong. Baltimore gave away 5 turnovers, and cincy still can't stop the run. ARI -2.
MIA vs PHI: Philly can't beat a good team, but they can beat a crappy one. PHI -5.
NO vs HOU: I think this is going to be my upset of the week. Bet the house on Houston. NO teased us a couple weeks in a row, then got blown out by the 0-8 Rams last week. So who are the Saints - the 0-4 team or the 4-0 team? Andre Johnson, Houston's top WR finally is back from a week 2 injury (my fantasy team salutes you!), and HOU has been playing tough all year. I think NO will be favored, but take the Texans. HOU -1.
CAR vs GB: GB looks good don't they? I like them big at home against the struggling Panthers who just fell apart after DelHomme went down. What happened to Julius Peppers this year (My fantasy team farts in your general direction)? GB -11.
NYG vs DET: Multiple Personality Alert! Screw this game, i'm not betting it. The Giants are a more complete team and should win, but who knows. Kitna might have God giving him playcalls and he hangs up 60 points. NYG -3.
PIT vs NYJ: um... yeah. PIT -12
WAS vs DAL: What is going on in Washington? Good players, good coaches, can't win. Dallas is on fuego so..... DAL -7.
STL vs. SF: eeeewww... what a stinker. I'm gonna say STL's shoulda-been firepower shows up after a good game last week and beats a terrible SF team. STL -4.
CHI vs SEA: Throw a touchdown to Berrian. Now don't fumble. Good Rex. Good. This game is kind of a toss-up for me, but Seattle is at homs. SEA -2.
NE vs Buf: The cobra kai yankees return! Sweep the leg Johnny! NE -10.
Ten vs. Den: I've gone back and forth on this one... but basically it comes down to 1 thing: Den can't stop the run and all TEN does is run. Ten -4.
I'll give you the Capper vs Vegas table tomorrow.
SD vs JAX: SD is definitely falling into the multiple personality disorder category, but I just don't trust Gray to lead JAX. With Indy losing, the division title is in sight for JAX, but I don't think they have the horses to get it done. SD -3
KC vs IND: Man Indy has a ton of injuries. Most of the line are backups, only Wayne is left in the receiver core and Freeney is out too. KC is a tough team, but B. Croyle is making his first start and the game is in Indy. Oh let's not forget that the Colts are awesome. IND -8.
OAK vs MIN: Two crapass teams. Atleast Min can run. Oh wait, Peterson tore his knee. Game's in MIN so let's give it to them. MIN -2.
CLE vs. BAL: You have to finally make CLE a favorite, don't you? Most improved team in the NFL, plus McNair's career is officially over. People are calling for Boller, and Billick might be on his way out. Even after Ray Lewis cold-cocked his teammates on national tv, blaming the offense's turnovers for their losing, they still coughed the ball up 5 times. CLE -4.
TB vs ATL: Atlanta's on a winning streak, watch out! just kidding. TB is still fighting for the division title, Garcia's still playing well, the D works, and Ernest Graham has been a great plug for their injured running game. Who's the QB for Atlanta anyway? TB -6.
ARI vs CIN: Cincy beat Baltimore last week, so they are on the rise, right? Wrong. Baltimore gave away 5 turnovers, and cincy still can't stop the run. ARI -2.
MIA vs PHI: Philly can't beat a good team, but they can beat a crappy one. PHI -5.
NO vs HOU: I think this is going to be my upset of the week. Bet the house on Houston. NO teased us a couple weeks in a row, then got blown out by the 0-8 Rams last week. So who are the Saints - the 0-4 team or the 4-0 team? Andre Johnson, Houston's top WR finally is back from a week 2 injury (my fantasy team salutes you!), and HOU has been playing tough all year. I think NO will be favored, but take the Texans. HOU -1.
CAR vs GB: GB looks good don't they? I like them big at home against the struggling Panthers who just fell apart after DelHomme went down. What happened to Julius Peppers this year (My fantasy team farts in your general direction)? GB -11.
NYG vs DET: Multiple Personality Alert! Screw this game, i'm not betting it. The Giants are a more complete team and should win, but who knows. Kitna might have God giving him playcalls and he hangs up 60 points. NYG -3.
PIT vs NYJ: um... yeah. PIT -12
WAS vs DAL: What is going on in Washington? Good players, good coaches, can't win. Dallas is on fuego so..... DAL -7.
STL vs. SF: eeeewww... what a stinker. I'm gonna say STL's shoulda-been firepower shows up after a good game last week and beats a terrible SF team. STL -4.
CHI vs SEA: Throw a touchdown to Berrian. Now don't fumble. Good Rex. Good. This game is kind of a toss-up for me, but Seattle is at homs. SEA -2.
NE vs Buf: The cobra kai yankees return! Sweep the leg Johnny! NE -10.
Ten vs. Den: I've gone back and forth on this one... but basically it comes down to 1 thing: Den can't stop the run and all TEN does is run. Ten -4.
I'll give you the Capper vs Vegas table tomorrow.
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