Showing posts with label box's rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label box's rankings. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Week 12: Falling Behind

But seriously, be glad. My mean regression continues. Up only 10% on the year now, down from nearly 80%.

I'll spare you the bets, we'll just move to week 12, shall me? Gonna need some luck this week, maybe I can get a bounce (yes, the miracle in JAC did not help me... and yes, the Chansi Stuckey fumble in OT followed by about 30 missed tackles did not help me... and yes, every bounce in the last two weeks have gone against me... but at least the Pats are winning!).

1 PHI @ CHI -3 1.75
2 SEA v. KC +1 1.69
3 IND v. SD -3 1.62
4 PIT @ BUF -6.5 1.56
5 DET v. NE +7 1.50
6 MIN @ WAS +2.5 1.44
7 JAC @ NYG +7.5 1.37
8 CIN @ NYJ +9 1.31
9 ARI v. SF +1 1.25
10 NO @ DAL -3.5 1.19
11 DEN v. STL -4 1.12
12 GB @ ATL +2 1.06
13 BAL v. TB -7.5 1.00
Totals: Bets: 17.86 Payout: 0.00


1 GB @ ATL +110 1.00
2 MIN @ WAS +120 1.00
3 DET v. NE +250 1.00
4 JAC @ NYG +270 1.00
5 NYJ v. CIN -400 1.00
6 BAL v. TB -330 1.00
7 PIT @ BUF -270 1.00
8 PHI @ CHI -175 1.00
9 NO @ DAL -190 1.00
10 DEN v. STL -210 1.00
11 IND v. SD -165 1.00
Totals: Bets: 11.00 Payout: 0.00

Power Ranks ▲▼ ATS ATS Rank
1 KC 5 - 3 - 1 56.77%
2 PIT 7 - 3 - 0
3 BAL 5 - 4 - 1
4 CLE 4 - 4 - 1
5 NYJ ▲2 6 - 4 - 0
6 MIA 5 - 3 - 0
7 NE ▲4 4 - 3 - 2
8 SF ▼3 4 - 6 - 0
9 NYG 5 - 5 - 0 53.41%
10 SEA 5 - 5 - 0
11 PHI ▲4 6 - 4 - 0
12 HOU ▲1 2 - 6 - 1
13 ATL ▲1 6 - 4 - 0
14 DEN ▼6 3 - 6 - 0
15 JAC ▼3 6 - 3 - 0
16 SD 5 - 5 - 0
17 IND ▲1 5 - 3 - 2
18 STL ▲1 7 - 2 - 1
19 CIN ▼2 3 - 7 - 0
20 TEN 5 - 4 - 0
21 CHI ▲3 4 - 4 - 1
22 OAK ▲1 3 - 4 - 1
23 GB ▲5 5 - 3 - 0
24 DET ▼3 8 - 2 - 0
25 TB 5 - 3 - 1 39.54%
26 WAS ▼4 5 - 3 - 2
27 BUF ▲3 4 - 5 - 1
28 NO ▼1 3 - 6 - 0
29 MIN 3 - 6 - 0
30 DAL ▼4 3 - 7 - 0
31 ARI 2 - 7 - 1
32 CAR 2 - 5 - 0

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Week 10: The Thursday games already?

I like and hate this week. A lot of trap game feels.

KC @ DEN -1 2.16
HOU @ JAC +1.5 2.07
TEN @ MIA -2 1.98
DET @ BUF +3 1.89
ATL v. BAL -1 1.80
CLE v. NYJ +3 1.71
PHI @ WAS -3 1.62
NE @ PIT +4.5 1.54
MIN @ CHI -1.5 1.45
DAL @ NYG +14 1.36
SF v. STL -6 1.27
CAR @ TB +6.5 1.18
IND v. CIN -7 1.09
SEA @ ARI +3 1.00
Totals: Bets: 22.12 Payout: 0.00

DET @ BUF +120 1.00
NE @ PIT +190 1.00
CLE v. NYJ +155 1.00
SEA @ ARI +155 1.00
NYG v. DAL -700 1.00
IND v. CIN -340 1.00
TB v. CAR -270 1.00
SF v. STL -260 1.00
PHI @ WAS -170 1.00
TEN @ MIA -130 1.00
Totals: Bets: 10.00 Payout: 0.00

HOU has the feeling of a trap game.

So does TEN. MIA as a home dog is tough to bet against. Big money already came in on TEN, too - opened at TEN -1.

KC feels like a trap, DEN needs a win.

And then the NYJ looks like the anti trap - CLE is getting less for shelling my Pats last week, but that was more an anomaly than a new reality I think. NE has a weak D, if CLE can move the ball with Hillis more than 25 yds the whole game I'll be impressed.

And the rankings - tons of motion, still worthless.

Power Ranks ▲▼ ATS ATS Rank
1 KC 4 - 2 - 1 57.37%
2 PIT ▲1 6 - 2 - 0
3 BAL ▼1 4 - 3 - 1
4 NYG ▲2 5 - 3 - 0
5 NYJ ▲4 5 - 3 - 0
6 MIA ▲2 4 - 3 - 0
7 SF 4 - 4 - 0
8 HOU ▲3 2 - 5 - 1
9 CLE ▲5 4 - 3 - 1 53.29%
10 ATL ▲5 4 - 4 - 0
11 SEA ▼7 4 - 4 - 0
12 NE ▼7 3 - 3 - 1
13 DEN ▲6 2 - 5 - 0
14 PHI ▼2 4 - 4 - 0
15 SD ▼2 3 - 5 - 0
16 TEN ▲5 5 - 3 - 0
17 CIN ▼1 2 - 6 - 0
18 STL ▼8 6 - 1 - 1
19 IND ▼1 5 - 2 - 1
20 JAC ▲2 4 - 3 - 0
21 DET ▲5 7 - 1 - 0
22 OAK ▼2 3 - 4 - 0
23 MIN ▼6 3 - 4 - 0
24 WAS ▼1 4 - 2 - 2
25 BUF ▲5 3 - 4 - 1 33.85%
26 NO ▲1 1 - 6 - 0
27 GB ▲1 3 - 3 - 0
28 CHI ▼4 2 - 4 - 1
29 TB 3 - 3 - 1
30 DAL ▼5 1 - 7 - 0
31 CAR 2 - 4 - 0
32 ARI 2 - 5 - 1

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Week 09: Mossless, but still favored...

I didn't like a lot last week, but still did fine. This week, I like the 4 home dogs. But...

1 KC @ OAK +3 2.62
2 SEA v. NYG +6 2.47
3 DET v. NYJ +4 2.32
4 PIT @ CIN -4.5 2.17
5 MIA @ BAL +5 2.03
6 CHI @ BUF -3 1.88
7 HOU v. SD +2.5 1.73
8 NE @ CLE -5 1.59
9 ATL v. TB -8 1.44
10 PHI v. IND -3 1.29
11 MIN v. ARI -9 1.15
12 DAL @ GB +8 1.00
Totals: Bets: 21.68 Payout: 0.00

1 HOU v. SD +120 1.00
2 KC @ OAK +125 1.00
3 DET v. NYJ +180 1.00
4 MIA @ BAL +190 1.00
5 SEA v. NYG +230 1.00
6 ATL v. TB -400 1.00
7 MIN v. ARI -450 1.00
8 GB v. DAL -400 1.00
9 NE @ CLE -230 1.00
10 CHI @ BUF -150 1.00
11 PHI v. IND -150 1.00
Totals: Bets: 11.00 Payout: 0.00

... PHI over IND? Hard to bet against Peyton, even without Clark.

DET as a home dog in Bill Simmons' "vegas zone"... not bad, but makes me nervous. Rex will have his team bounce back hard.

KC getting 3 is epic to me, even if it's at OAK. Why? Because by the time this posts, I bet KC has Moss.

Worst pick of the week? MIN -9. This team is imploding. Unless AP gets 45 carries and TJ replaces old man winter, I think this game is actually a W for ARI.

And the "power" rankings... as IF they had power.

Power Ranks ▲▼ ATS ATS Rank
1 KC 4 - 2 - 0 58.78%
2 BAL ▲1 3 - 3 - 1
3 PIT ▲1 5 - 2 - 0
4 SEA ▼2 4 - 3 - 0
5 NE ▲1 3 - 2 - 1
6 NYG ▲1 4 - 3 - 0
7 SF ▲2 3 - 4 - 0
8 MIA 4 - 2 - 0
9 NYJ ▼4 5 - 2 - 0 52.05%
10 STL ▲6 5 - 1 - 1
11 HOU ▲6 2 - 4 - 1
12 PHI ▼2 4 - 3 - 0
13 SD 3 - 5 - 0
14 CLE ▼2 3 - 3 - 1
15 ATL ▼4 4 - 3 - 0
16 CIN ▼1 2 - 5 - 0
17 MIN ▼3 3 - 3 - 0
18 IND ▲1 4 - 2 - 1
19 DEN ▲2 2 - 4 - 0
20 OAK ▲10 3 - 4 - 0
21 TEN ▼1 5 - 2 - 0
22 JAC ▲3 3 - 3 - 0
23 WAS 4 - 1 - 2
24 CHI ▼2 2 - 4 - 0
25 DAL ▼7 1 - 6 - 0 38.78%
26 DET ▼2 6 - 1 - 0
27 NO ▲2 1 - 6 - 0
28 GB ▼1 3 - 3 - 0
29 TB ▼1 2 - 3 - 1
30 BUF ▼4 3 - 4 - 0
31 CAR 2 - 3 - 0
32 ARI 1 - 5 - 1

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Week 08: Half the Season, gone already???

I hate every pick this week but one: GB +6. Here are the picks and a bit of commentary:

1 SF v. DEN -1 2.65
2 SEA @ OAK +2.5 2.50
3 DET v. WAS -2.5 2.35
4 MIA @ CIN +1.5 2.20
5 TEN @ SD +3.5 2.05
6 STL v. CAR -3 1.90
7 KC v. BUF -7.5 1.75
8 TB @ ARI +3 1.60
9 JAC @ DAL +6.5 1.45
10 GB @ NYJ +6 1.30
11 HOU @ IND +5.5 1.15
12 PIT @ NO 0 1.00
Totals: Bets: 21.90

1 SEA @ OAK +110 1.00
2 TB @ ARI +140 1.00
3 TEN @ SD +165 1.00
4 JAC @ DAL +230 1.00
5 KC v. BUF -330 1.00
6 NYJ v. GB -240 1.00
7 IND v. HOU -240 1.00
8 STL v. CAR -145 1.00
9 DET v. WAS -135 1.00
Totals: Bets: 9.00

Here's what I think:

DEN bounces back this week. SF is terrible on the road, and London is waaaaay on the road.

SEA pick isn't bad, but OAK at home will keep it tight.

How is DET even a favorite over WAS in the first place? Is McNabb still playing?

Like the MIA pick.

This is the point in the season where SD realizes it has to win to make the playoffs, go 7-2 for the rest of the season, and Norv figures out a way to blow the wildcard. Something like 4th and 2 on the opp 38 yard line and he punts, even though he's behind by 4 with 4 min to go. You know - dumb. Long way of saying watch SD lay 50 on TEN this week.

BUF is switching back to a 4-3. That means a more confident defense to compliment an already scrappy offense (who is Steve Johnson anyway? which jerk in your fantasy league has him on their bench?). KC is a paper tiger - this year's CIN. BUF wins this outright. Hate this pick.

TB pick is ok.

JAC pick is ok.

Love the GB pick. Clay Matthews might have 4 sacks of Sanchez. I'm not just saying that because I hate the Jets and hope it happens.

IND should be giving 10 and it still wouldn't be enough. They'll stack 10 in the box with a single free safety to cover the entire receiving core (Andre Johnson = fantasy bust so far), Arian Foster will run for 3 yards in 45 attempts, and Peyton will throw for 825 yards with 6 TDs as the ultimate, "you had your one victory, now go fuck yourselves" game.

NO will get up for this game, and PIT just lost Aaron Smith, the anchor of their defensive front line. The wildcard is the NO secondary - Big Ben is pasting teams, it's strength against weakness. PIT looks good in this if the D holds sans Smith.

And we'll wrap with the lame and useless power rankings:

Power Ranks ▲▼ ATS ATS Rank
1 KC 4 - 1 - 0 64.38%
2 SEA 4 - 2 - 0
3 BAL 3 - 2 - 1
4 PIT 4 - 2 - 0
5 NYJ 5 - 1 - 0
6 NE ▲1 2 - 2 - 1
7 NYG ▼1 3 - 3 - 0
8 MIA 3 - 2 - 0
9 SF ▲1 3 - 4 - 0 51.12%
10 PHI ▲8 4 - 2 - 0
11 ATL ▼2 3 - 3 - 0
12 CLE ▲2 2 - 3 - 1
13 SD 2 - 5 - 0
14 MIN ▲5 3 - 2 - 0
15 CIN ▲1 2 - 4 - 0
16 STL ▼1 5 - 1 - 1
17 HOU ▼6 2 - 3 - 1
18 DAL ▼1 1 - 5 - 0
19 IND ▼7 3 - 2 - 1
20 TEN 5 - 2 - 0
21 DEN 2 - 4 - 0
22 CHI ▲1 2 - 3 - 0
23 WAS ▲3 4 - 1 - 2
24 DET ▲4 5 - 1 - 0
25 JAC ▼3 3 - 3 - 0 33.24%
26 BUF ▼2 2 - 4 - 0
27 GB ▲2 2 - 3 - 0
28 TB ▼1 1 - 3 - 1
29 NO ▼4 1 - 6 - 0
30 OAK 2 - 4 - 0
31 CAR 2 - 3 - 0
32 ARI 1 - 4 - 1

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Week 07: Almost forgot...

1 NYG @ DAL +3 2.07
2 PIT @ MIA -3 1.97
3 SEA v. ARI -5.5 1.87
4 SF @ CAR -3 1.78
5 NE @ SD +3 1.68
6 STL @ TB +3 1.58
7 PHI @ TEN +3 1.48
8 WAS @ CHI +3 1.39
9 ATL v. CIN -3.5 1.29
10 GB v. MIN -3 1.19
11 CLE @ NO +13 1.10
12 BUF @ BAL +13 1.00





















Totals: Bets: 18.40

1 NE @ SD +120 1.00
2 STL @ TB +130 1.00
3 WAS @ CHI +130 1.00
4 PHI @ TEN +140 1.00
5 NYG @ DAL +155 1.00
6 NO v. CLE -700 1.00
7 BAL v. BUF -700 1.00
8 SEA v. ARI -270 1.00
9 ATL v. CIN -180 1.00
10 PIT @ MIA -150 1.00
11 SF @ CAR -150 1.00
12 GB v. MIN -140 1.00





















Totals: Bets: 12.00

Power Ranks ▲▼ ATS ATS Rank
1 KC
3 - 1 - 0 62.92%
2 SEA
3 - 2 - 0
3 BAL ▲1 3 - 2 - 1
4 PIT ▲1 4 - 1 - 0
5 NYJ ▼2 4 - 1 - 0
6 NYG ▲2 3 - 3 - 0
7 NE ▼1 2 - 2 - 1
8 MIA ▲4 2 - 2 - 0
9 ATL ▼2 3 - 3 - 0 48.33%
10 SF ▲7 3 - 3 - 0
11 HOU ▼2 2 - 2 - 1
12 IND ▲2 3 - 2 - 0
13 SD ▼3 2 - 4 - 0
14 CLE ▼1 2 - 3 - 1
15 STL
4 - 1 - 1
16 CIN ▼5 2 - 3 - 0
17 DAL ▲1 1 - 4 - 0
18 PHI ▲1 4 - 2 - 0
19 MIN ▼3 3 - 2 - 0
20 TEN ▲5 4 - 2 - 0
21 DEN ▲1 2 - 3 - 0
22 JAC ▼2 3 - 2 - 0
23 CHI ▲1 2 - 3 - 0
24 BUF ▼3 1 - 4 - 0
25 NO ▲2 1 - 5 - 0 40.10%
26 WAS
3 - 1 - 2
27 TB ▼4 1 - 2 - 1
28 DET ▲1 4 - 1 - 0
29 GB ▼1 1 - 3 - 0
30 OAK
2 - 3 - 0
31 CAR
1 - 3 - 0
32 ARI
1 - 3 - 1

Friday, October 15, 2010

Week 06: Power Rank Me

This still doesn't actually work predictively as I hoped it would, but... here they are until I figure it out.

Power Ranks ▲▼ ATS ATS Rank
1 KC 3 - 1 - 0 63.75%
2 SEA 2 - 2 - 0
3 NYJ 4 - 1 - 0
4 BAL 3 - 2 - 0
5 PIT 3 - 1 - 0
6 NE 2 - 2 - 0
7 ATL ▲4 3 - 2 - 0
8 NYG ▲2 3 - 2 - 0
9 HOU ▲6 2 - 2 - 1 49.17%
10 SD ▼1 2 - 3 - 0
11 CIN ▲1 2 - 2 - 0
12 MIA ▲1 2 - 1 - 0
13 CLE ▼5 2 - 2 - 1
14 IND 3 - 2 - 0
15 STL ▼8 3 - 1 - 1
16 MIN ▲5 2 - 2 - 0
17 SF 2 - 3 - 0
18 DAL 1 - 3 - 0
19 PHI 3 - 2 - 0
20 JAC 3 - 2 - 0
21 BUF ▲7 1 - 3 - 0
22 DEN ▲2 2 - 3 - 0
23 TB ▼7 1 - 1 - 1
24 CHI ▲3 2 - 2 - 0
25 TEN ▲1 3 - 2 - 0 41.15%
26 WAS ▼3 3 - 1 - 1
27 NO ▼2 0 - 5 - 0
28 GB ▼6 1 - 2 - 0
29 DET ▲3 4 - 1 - 0
30 OAK ▼1 2 - 3 - 0
31 CAR ▼1 1 - 2 - 0
32 ARI ▼1 0 - 3 - 1

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 05: Randy Moss Means Nothing

Well, not literally. But it didn't shake the line or the expectations.

PHI @ SF +3.5 9%
JAC @ BUF -1 8%
KC @ IND +8.5 8%
NYJ v. MIN -4 8%
GB @ WAS -2.5 8%
NYG @ HOU +3 7%
TB @ CIN +6.5 7%
STL @ DET +3 7%
TEN @ DAL +6.5 7%
SD @ OAK -6.5 7%
ATL @ CLE -3 6%
NO @ ARI -7 6%
DEN @ BAL +7 6%
CHI @ CAR -3 6%

Money:
NYG @ HOU +130 8%
STL @ DET +140 8%
PHI @ SF +155 8%
TB @ CIN +245 8%
TEN @ DAL +245 8%
KC @ IND +320 8%
NO @ ARI -290 8%
SD @ OAK -270 8%
BAL v. DEN -320 8%
NYJ v. MIN -190 8%
ATL @ CLE -150 8%
CHI @ CAR -140 8%
GB @ WAS -135 8%

Power Ranks ▲▼ ATS ATS Rank
1 KC 3 - 0 - 0 73.96%
2 SEA 2 - 1 - 0
3 NYJ ▲2 3 - 1 - 0
4 BAL ▼1 2 - 2 - 0
5 PIT ▼1 3 - 0 - 0
6 NE ▲2 1 - 2 - 0
7 STL 3 - 0 - 1
8 CLE ▼2 2 - 1 - 1
9 SD ▲4 2 - 2 - 0 48.96%
10 NYG ▲5 2 - 2 - 0
11 ATL ▼1 2 - 2 - 0
12 CIN ▼3 2 - 2 - 0
13 MIA ▼2 2 - 1 - 0
14 IND ▼2 2 - 2 - 0
15 HOU ▲5 2 - 1 - 1
16 TB ▼2 0 - 1 - 1
17 SF ▲9 2 - 2 - 0
18 DAL 1 - 2 - 0
19 PHI ▲4 2 - 2 - 0
20 JAC ▲10 2 - 2 - 0
21 MIN 2 - 1 - 0
22 GB 1 - 2 - 0
23 WAS ▲2 2 - 1 - 1
24 DEN ▼5 2 - 2 - 0
25 NO ▼9 0 - 4 - 0 30.21%
26 TEN ▼2 2 - 2 - 0
27 CHI ▼10 1 - 2 - 0
28 BUF ▲4 1 - 3 - 0
29 OAK 1 - 3 - 0
30 CAR ▲1 1 - 2 - 0
31 ARI ▼3 0 - 3 - 1
32 DET ▼5 3 - 1 - 0

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Week 04: Bets and Power Ranks

Spread:

Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
SEA @ STL -1 9% $8.85
PIT v. BAL -1.5 9% $8.55
NE @ MIA -1 9% $8.26
CHI @ NYG +4 8% $7.96
NYJ @ BUF -5 8% $7.66
HOU @ OAK -3 8% $7.37
ATL v. SF -6.5 7% $7.07
ARI @ SD +8 7% $6.77
PHI v. WAS -6 7% $6.48
IND @ JAC -7.5 6% $6.18
DEN @ TEN +6.5 6% $5.89
DET @ GB +14.5 6% $5.59
CAR @ NO +13.5 5% $5.29
CLE v. CIN +3 5% $5.00
Totals: Bets: $96.92 Payout: $0.00
Favorites Dogs Record This Week:
8 6 W L P
57.14% 42.86% 0 0 0
Home Away Week Win Percent:
4 10 0.00%
28.57% 71.43%
Home Dogs Away Faves Bet Win Percent:
1 5 -100.00%
7.14% 35.71%

And moneyline:

Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
CLE v. CIN +145 10% $5.00
CHI @ NYG +175 10% $5.00
ARI @ SD +320 10% $5.00
NO v. CAR -680 10% $5.00
IND @ JAC -360 10% $5.00
ATL v. SF -270 10% $5.00
PHI v. WAS -250 10% $5.00
TEN v. DEN -250 10% $5.00
HOU @ OAK -175 10% $5.00
NYJ @ BUF -220 10% $5.00
Totals: Bets: $50.00 Payout: $0.00
Favorites Dogs Record This Week:
7 3 W L P
70.00% 30.00% 0 0 0
Home Away Week Win Percent:
5 5 0.00%
50.00% 50.00%
Home Dogs Away Faves Bet Win Percent:
1 3 -100.00%
10.00% 30.00%

I'll just go on record: I hate this week's picks. Lots of favorites (which I'm not a fan of), almost no home dogs, lots of away teams... the worst of the worst of the worst. I'm expecting a huge down week. But I go where the stats take me. Sigh.

The power ranks seem to be working though. StL shoots up this week. Still have to test it's validity, but... fun?

Power Ranks ▲▼ ATS ATS Rank
1 KC 2 - 0 - 0 68.75%
2 SEA ▲3 2 - 1 - 0
3 BAL ▼1 1 - 2 - 0
4 PIT ▲6 3 - 0 - 0
5 NYJ ▼2 2 - 1 - 0
6 CLE ▼2 1 - 1 - 1
7 STL ▲18 2 - 0 - 1
8 NE ▲8 1 - 2 - 0
9 CIN ▼3 2 - 1 - 0 43.75%
10 ATL ▼2 2 - 1 - 0
11 MIA ▼4 2 - 1 - 0
12 IND ▼3 2 - 1 - 0
13 SD ▼2 1 - 2 - 0
14 TB ▲16 0 - 0 - 1
15 NYG ▼3 1 - 2 - 0
16 NO ▼1 0 - 3 - 0
17 CHI ▲2 1 - 1 - 0
18 DAL ▲3 0 - 2 - 0
19 DEN ▼6 1 - 2 - 0
20 HOU 1 - 1 - 1
21 MIN ▼3 1 - 1 - 0
22 GB ▲1 1 - 1 - 0
23 PHI ▲6 2 - 1 - 0
24 TEN 2 - 1 - 0
25 WAS ▼8 1 - 1 - 1 31.25%
26 SF ▼12 1 - 2 - 0
27 DET ▲5 2 - 1 - 0
28 ARI ▼2 0 - 2 - 1
29 OAK ▼2 1 - 2 - 0
30 JAC ▼8 1 - 2 - 0
31 CAR 0 - 2 - 0
32 BUF ▼4 1 - 2 - 0