Thursday, January 10, 2008

Week 19 - Matty Lives!


Matty boy! I thought you might have hit a snow bank or something, I haven't heard from you since before the holidays....

Anyway, I am most definitely pissed I didn't actually post my bets for the wild card weekend, I intended to spend my last $10 all in on a 4-team parlay which went 3-0-1 and would have paid off $60. Sadly I remain with only $10, and figure I should repeat the process this week. The spreads are huge so it's a tough call. But right now I like all the dogs to cover, possibly with the exception of GB and NE, who will probably destroy SEA and JAX, respectively.

It's been an awesome year 1 for us here at Mental Handicap, and this post-season and offseason should be fun. My goal is to research my win % on the various styles of betting, perfect the Wave Theory and determine the optimum betting system and stick with it in year 2. In addition, Matty and I will have to figure out a way to rank the teams in the offseason to get the 2008 season ready to go in Week 1. I have a feeling the box will struggle in the beginning so look for The Mad Capper to jump out to an early lead.

Happy New Year everyone!

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

End of Season Review

So it's been a while, and after placing some ludicrous but fun bets on Week 17 (and getting my ass handed to me in the process), I've abstained from all post season betting. Why? Because a.) I have zero historical data on which to base my guesses, and b.) anything can happen. I can pretty much guess that the Box would pick almost every underdog, too, but I still have no way to no. I have created no postseason module. That may be something to start for next season.

Overall, I would have to say it was a successful trial year. I lost a marginal amount of cash in what amounted to an oddly disproportionate favorite-covering year, so assuming over time things revert to the mean (where underdogs have a very slight advantage), I feel like I'm on the right track. The Box is now able to pick based on "cost per bet", a feature added very late in the season and perfected in Week 15 or 16, so my expectations will be high next year for some serious cash flow.

I will post results here in the morning, but for now, I wanted to bid a farewell to anyone who read this regularly - I assume me and the Capper, and maybe occasionally my wife - and I look forward to next season. Keep us on the RSS feeds, we may post a bit over the post season and off season just as updates happen and the betting styles are honed. With a few seasons data under my belt, it will be easier to run back tests and improve my stats hopefully. So check back for a full end of season review soon, for now, ta ta!

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Week 18 - Playoffs Change the Gambling Game

Well I'm back, the holidays took week 17 away from me, but it's just in time for playoffs...

So what to make of this?

There are only 4 games per week in the wild card and divisional rounds, then 2 games in the conference finals, and finally the superbowl... All season long we've been picking our favorite games, but now our choices dwindle from 16 games down to 4, and in theory, these games should be harder to call. Let's take a look at the wild card round:

jax -2 at PIT
SEA -4 vs was
TB -2.5 vs nyg
SD -9 vs ten

PIT is a home 'dog playing a team that kicked their butts already this year before PIT lost Willie Parker. I agre with Vegas here, and think JAX wins this game. Same goes for SD vs TEN, but in this game the spread is a whopping 9 points. Will TEN get beat that badly?

The SEA and TB games are more toss-ups, with the 'dogs in both games playing their best football recently, while the favorites are home and kind of eased into the playoffs. My gut says WAS finally hits the wall and loses the game and the spread to SEA , and TB pulls out a 1 or 2 point win, making me pick the Giants plus points.

What says the box?