Thursday, January 3, 2008

Week 18 - Playoffs Change the Gambling Game

Well I'm back, the holidays took week 17 away from me, but it's just in time for playoffs...

So what to make of this?

There are only 4 games per week in the wild card and divisional rounds, then 2 games in the conference finals, and finally the superbowl... All season long we've been picking our favorite games, but now our choices dwindle from 16 games down to 4, and in theory, these games should be harder to call. Let's take a look at the wild card round:

jax -2 at PIT
SEA -4 vs was
TB -2.5 vs nyg
SD -9 vs ten

PIT is a home 'dog playing a team that kicked their butts already this year before PIT lost Willie Parker. I agre with Vegas here, and think JAX wins this game. Same goes for SD vs TEN, but in this game the spread is a whopping 9 points. Will TEN get beat that badly?

The SEA and TB games are more toss-ups, with the 'dogs in both games playing their best football recently, while the favorites are home and kind of eased into the playoffs. My gut says WAS finally hits the wall and loses the game and the spread to SEA , and TB pulls out a 1 or 2 point win, making me pick the Giants plus points.

What says the box?

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