Week 09 - Secret Betting

OK, so I placed some secret bets lately. I was pissed off a couple weeks ago when I split my bets between a MoneyLine, Straight-Wager and a 4-Team Teaser. The ML and SW lost, but my teaser hit!

...but wait!

There's no record of my winning bet being placed! Shady business I tell you. How is it my losing bets were recorded but not my winner? Anyways, I've been pouting like the 6 year old I am.

Week 09 saw my return and I placed two wagers (and wrote down the confirmation number this time):

- Pit (-3) over DEN

- CIN (+9) over bal -- hou (+16) over IND -- car (+19) over NO -- gb (-4) over TB

Pit vs Den was pure gut - I still don't trust Denver to beat the elite teams. Pit happens to be my defense in fantasy football, so woot woot - double whammy victory from the Steelers last night.

My teaser was so perfect it had to lose... look at those huge spreads I gave myself! I picked the dogs to cover in 3 of 4, and gave myself a comfortable -4 point spread for GB to beat.. but lo! Tampa ruined the party with the weirdest upset of the year. I'm not going to fault myself for that one... Nobody picked TB to win this game.

So week 9 results.... Zero. The bets cancelled each other out - on to week 10!

Week 3 - Results just plain peachy

I'm not sure why they had to give me a heart attack, but Da Bears pulled it out at the end like I predicted, netting me another $20 this weekend on $24 wagered.

Just because this has happened so rarely over the past 3 seasons, I'm going to gloat... Mattyboy, I kicked the box's ass this weekend. Went 3 for 4 on my games of the week, all against the box.

Take that.

Week 1, 2, 3 2009 - Capper Back in Action

Sorry for the delay, I am fooling around with an "all-in" policy I started with Week 1 when I realized I still had $28 in the bank left over from last season's debacle.

Week 1 Results - Looked at the games and I couldn't believe I saw:

MIN(-4) vs CLE

Quinn vs Anderson, Kellen's gone, new Head Coach... CLE is gonna lose a lot. MIN is a popular NFC Superbowl pick, so this one was a lock to me. I went all-in, half my bank to the moneyline, half to the spread bet.

BINGO. Paid out $20, a nice 70% return.

Week 2 didn't have any absolutes in it for me, so I stayed away. Good thing, too. Lots of upsets.

Week 3 is here and I'm looking for my 'lock'. I'll get back to you

Small Change - Week 7 Roundup

Sorry I didn't get my picks posted before the weekend, but I'll go through them below. Just a quick thought, though... Is it time to start picking rediculous upsets on the Moneyline? If you picked the Rams to upset Dallas this week, the payout would have been something like 8:1. Every week there is a huge upset. Miami did it to NE and SD, STL did it to WAS and DAL. If you correctly picked a big upset half the time, you'd be getting 4:1 payouts on average.

1. 3-Team Parlay: [Mia -3, NYG -9.5, NO +3] - LOST $5

- I bought into Mia after they beat SD last week. Dammit. BAL stopped the Wildcat, which wasn't totally shocking but what did surprise is how well they played offensively. Flacco had his best game so far and *poof* went my parlay bet.

- The Giants covered vs. SF, which I thought was predictable. West Coast teams travelling to the East are getting killed this year. Add that to the fact the Giants have looked like the strongest team in the NFL and you get a solid bet.

- NO totally blew this game. My abusive boyfriend (CAR) strikes again. I'd be more pissed, but MIA lost too, so really this was a bad bet all around.

2. 4-team Teaser: [NYJ+3, TN -4.5, HOU -3, NYG -4.5] - WON $9

- The Jets pushed, by losing to OAK in overtime by 3. This sucked, my friends. How the hell did that happen? This cost me payout dollas. Mangenious my ass.

- TN just rolled KC. Much like the NYG game, you just knew this was gonna happen.

3. NYJ -3: LOST $5

4. TN -8.5: WON $$4.76

5. NO +130: LOST $5

Overall a slightly down week, lost less than $2. That Jets game was the turning point for me. I would have had $10 flip my way on the single-game bet, and an additional $6 payout on my teaser. I couldn't resist going back to the Multi-game bets this week, and it cost me again. Had I stuck to my top picks I probably would have gone 2 for 2 with TN and NYG... but possibly may have been teased enough by an underdog Saints team and lost anyways.

Week 8 Analysis tomorrow!

Tie goes to the Loser

Won my PHI (-5) over SF bet, lost my DEN (-175) bet. Unfortunately I weighted my gambling on the 'safer' pick, DEN, so I lose again!

Even with a small loss this week, I feel pretty validated avoiding the teasers and parlays. I may have forced that DEN pick on myself this week, though. Probably better to just stick to one game, if that's all I like. Anyways, last week had difficult games to call, and the upsets bore that out:

STL over WAS - crazy
CLE over NYG - bonkers (although I called it)
ARI over DAL - looney
GB over SEA - this game was a pisser. Why the hell was SEA favored anyways?
ATL over CHI - that's two in a row, Falcons fans
JAX over DEN - what the hell happened?
TB over CAR - so glad i stayed away from CAR

Another Losing.... Wait I won? Week 5 Roundup

So at moment of truth I picked TN to cover the 3 point spread and also to win outright (@ BAL) in the Moneyline. TN won the game by 3 points, so my spread pick pushed, but I collected on my Moneyline bet. Huzzah!

The NFL landscape is getting less and less predictable. The Dolphins upset the Chargers, the Falcons did the same to Green Bay AT LAMBEAU. Buffalo takes its first loss, and Cincy played Dallas close til the end. Crazy Crazy.

All this nonsense makes it incredibly difficult to pick parlays and teasers correctly. There are simply not enough 'sure things' each week. Typically I would favor the Teasers in environments like this, but they got me killed 3 weeks in a row. I think I have the bleedeing stopped, and now it's time to erase more of my losses from weeks 2-4. For now I'm sticking with 1 or 2 games that I have the most confidence in, and betting big on fewer games rather than spreading out small bets on numerous parlays and teasers. It's still early in the week, but here are my initial favorite games:

chi (-2.5) over ATL - Matt Ryan's got big test against the Bears nasty Defense.

dal (-5.5) over ARI - ARI beat undefeated Buffalo, but that was after T. Edwards was knocked out of the game. DAL is a bully team and should teake The Cards' lunch money.

gb (+3) over SEA - This looks like a stunning over-reaction to last week's loss to ATL. I'll need to check the injury reports and make sure A Rodgers is going to play.

ne (+6) over SD - SD needs this game more than NE, so that makes me nervous. But don't you have to take the points when the patriots get them?

Round up the Losses - Week 3

This week was Coyote Ugly, I'd chew my arm off to escape this week's results unnoticed. Even my last-second change to drop NE-6.5 in my 4th Teaser in favor of ATL+1 did nothing to save me. Only my low-stakes Den-230 bet won this week, here's how it went:

1st, what I did right:

1. TN+1 over HOU - TN is continuing to show they are a force in the AFC this year. I liked the Kerry Collins move, and they rolled over HOU as expected.

*Looking Forward: TN is 3-0 and probably will get bumped up by Vegas this week. Look out for unrealistic spreads.


2. PHI -3 over PIT - This game went as planned, with PHI just being better than PIT. I still like both these teams, but keep an eye on Rothlisberger's shoulder injury. I'm not even sure who their backup is...

*Looking Forward: Westbrook is out for a while, a big loss for PHI, but this team is very good. I'm not sure how Vegas will treat them since they are 2-1 but remember that loss came away at 3-0 Dallas.


3. DEN -230 - over NO - Turns out the spread was too high so my decision to stick with the MOneyline and use them as a +0.5 Teaser pick was well done. Both teams feature dynamic offenses with zero D.

*Looking Forward - NO dropped to 1-2 so look for them to be undervalued this week. They are goiong to win some games against teams that cannot keep up with their scoring ability. DEN is now 3-0 and is going to start getting high spreads that are going to be tough to justify.


4. ATL+1 over KC - This was a last-second entry to one of my Teasers based on KC's decision to start Tyler Thigpen at QB. ATL destroyed KC, who are looking very very bad.

*Looking Forward - I think I see the recipe here.... ATL has young talent that can outmatch weak opponents. This leads to them covering spreads in such games. Against stronger opponents their inexperience is a huge liabilty and they will get beaten badly.


4 good bets seems like a solid week, right? Well not when they're rolled up with these losers:

1. CAR +3.5 over MIN - This game looked so good to me last week, I am still in shock. Adrian Peterson has an injured hamstring, they are forced to bring in 37 yr old Frerotte due to poor QB play and CAR is healthy and on the rise, plus they get 3.5 points. MIN wins by 10, destroying not only the Moneyline bet (+170) and parlay, but the teaser with them at +9.5. This one killed me. I need to watch the highlights to see what happend here.

*Looking Forward: So is MIN the team everyone was droooling over in Preseason? I think it's safe to say we have no idea at this point. Their 0-2 start might have been an stumble, but I don't think we really know at this point. CAR is still a solid team worth taking a shot on.


2. CLE+2 over BAL - This was another death blow. I bet that they would snap out of their funk and return to last year's winning ways against a BAL team that on paper has very little to offer. Well I got punished for this wishful thinking in both my Moneyline (CLE +120) and Teaser (CLE+8) bets. It's amazing that low-scoring BAL was able to beat supposedly high-scoring CLE by more than 8 points, just amazing. I'm so depressed.

*Looking Forward: I think it's time to admit CLE is a loser this year. However, everyone else is thinking the same thing, so look for them to beat some spreads. BAL... I still know nothing about this team. They're 2-0, but with Flacco and Harbaugh in their frst year, will they keep it up? I'm guessing not, and hoping they get overrated by Vegas against some tougher teams.


3. DET+10 over SF - Yes, I praised JT O'Sullivan and than promptly bet against him... twice. My theory was that even if SF pulls out the victory, that DET's high-scoring offense would keep the game closer than 10 points. That was a great idea until they got rocked. How bad are the Lions exactly?

*Looking Forward: I was really hoping nobody but me would notice that the 49ers have looked very good so far. I'm guessing that the cat isn't in that bag anymore, so follow the spreads very carefuly. DET is a wildcard that will bust some spreads and never reward you. Only bet against them.


4. Buf +3.5 over OAK - I'm not sure what to do with Oakland. They busted up this spread, and really should have won this game.

*Looking Forward: I have a sneaking suspicion that this team is being held together with silly string by Kiffin.... and I just read he'll be fired today. Buf is 3-0, but cost me by not covering their spread against an apparently weak opponent. Bet them whenever they are 'dogs, but when is that going to happen exactly?

The SD -3 bet will be decided tonight, but my Teasers and Parlays are already busted, so it won't matter. Going 4-4 (so far) this week doesn't seem awful, but it hurts when those loses are divided up equally when you are parlay betting like me.

I have to stay the course, though. The only way to get back on top is to continue to bet big.

Weekly Bets = $40
Weekly Profit = (-$32)

Total Bets = $80
Total Profits = (-$22)
Total Return = -27.5%

Week 2 Victories Diminished by Cowardly Crennel

This week was almost one of those giants that vindicates my parlay system. Your humble narrator picked correctly time and again this week, and all that awaited two parlay winners was for PIT to cover -6.5 vs CLE. Easy money.

... Except it poured, and the offenses sputtered. No problem, though. PIT is up by 7, 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter with CLE in the Red Zone. PIT's defense is holding, bringing up 4th and 7, CLE has to go for the TD to tie and....what?! Field Goal Unit comes in, kicks the 3, killing the spread AND their chances to win the game. Naturally they never got another chance to score the TD they needed. Fuck You, Crennel. Fuck You.

Oh yeah, just to rub some salt in the wound, PIT drove down in the final minutes to within field goal range. 4 down... and did they kick the field goal to put them back up by 7, thereby helping out all their local fans that bet on their home team to cover, and simultaneously protecting against a miracle CLE TD that would lose the game? Did they??? Nooooo, of course not. They ran it up the middle, giving up possession, stopping the clock and letting the spread stay defeated. Fuck You, Tomlin. Fuck You.

Overall a good weak though:

Parlays:

1. GB (-3) over DET -- NE (+1) over NYJ -- PIT (-6.5) over CLE - Lost (see above)
2. GB (-3) over DET -- SD (+1) over DEN -- PIT (-6.5) over CLE - Lost (see above)
3. SD (+1) over DEN -- NE (+1) over NYJ -- NO (-1) over WAS - Lost (NO vs WAS)

Teaser:

1. NYG (-2.5) over STL -- GB (+3) over DET -- NE (+7) over NYJ -- PIT (-1/2) over CLE
- This 4-team teaser hit with a 3:1 payout. I loved this pick before and love it even more now. This covered my parlay losses, leaving it up to the moneyline picks to bring me a profit.

Moneyline:

1. IND (-130) over MIN - Freaking scary game. It was 15-0 for a very very long time, but Your Capship (that'd be me) called upon Manning to defeat an over-rated MIN team, and it was done thusly.

*Looking Forward: Indy has a banged up line. Harrison isn't the same and Manning is coming off knee surgery (I'll show you my bursa sac, if you show me yours). I like them to stay close in a lot of games, so I'll bet against them if they get favored big. MIN is a waste to me, I'm still picking against them.

2. GB (-165) over DET - I watch all the games at my local sports bar, and this game was out of reach early, bringing a greedy smile to bear (or is it bare?). Then out of the corner of my eye I saw a 21 point lead disappear and I thought my week was lost. Not only did I Have GB to win in this moneyline bet, but they were in my teaser and 2 of my parlays. Thankfully Kitna has blue/green colorblindness and threw 3 picks to give GB the easy W.

*Looking Forward: GB is a monster team, and if Vegas keeps their spreads down, I will keep betting them. Rodgers is becoming a media darling, however, so I am on the lookout for an over-reaction from Vegas and may bet against them if the spreads get rediculous. DET.... no.

3. BUF (+175) over JAX - This was ballsy pick #1. Picking dogs in the moneyline is fun as hell due to the bonus payout (more than 1:1), but there's a reason they pay. To me, this was a great game to risk because of JAX's severely injured O-Line, and BUF's emergence.

*Looking Foward: I like BUF to keep upsetting teams, but now that they are 2-0 watch out for them to be favored when they shouldn't be. JAX is a team to bet against until they prove they can win with their patchwork O-line.

4. PHI (+245) over DAL - Ballsy pick #2. DAL being so heavily favored was a Vegas mistake and over-reaction to DAL's flash. PHI could have easily pulled this out and was paying nearly 3:1. It was a close game, and I have no regrets on this bet.

Weekly Bet = $40
Weekly Profit = $10
Weekly Return = 25%

Total Bet = $40
Total Profit = $10
Total Return = 25%

Week 3 Analysis Coming Soon....

Week 19 - Matty Lives!

Whew!

Matty boy! I thought you might have hit a snow bank or something, I haven't heard from you since before the holidays....

Anyway, I am most definitely pissed I didn't actually post my bets for the wild card weekend, I intended to spend my last $10 all in on a 4-team parlay which went 3-0-1 and would have paid off $60. Sadly I remain with only $10, and figure I should repeat the process this week. The spreads are huge so it's a tough call. But right now I like all the dogs to cover, possibly with the exception of GB and NE, who will probably destroy SEA and JAX, respectively.

It's been an awesome year 1 for us here at Mental Handicap, and this post-season and offseason should be fun. My goal is to research my win % on the various styles of betting, perfect the Wave Theory and determine the optimum betting system and stick with it in year 2. In addition, Matty and I will have to figure out a way to rank the teams in the offseason to get the 2008 season ready to go in Week 1. I have a feeling the box will struggle in the beginning so look for The Mad Capper to jump out to an early lead.

Happy New Year everyone!

Week 13 - Half Point Revenge! (Recap)

Week 13 started with a box-Capper lovefest, and it has ended the same. Lots of winners this week, and would have swept if CLE hadn't been screwed by the refs (check out the last second pass to Winslow where they did not call him pushed out of bounds, despite TWO defenders preventing him from landing in bounds). My only regret? I didn't go all in like i was planning on, before I wussed out. Anyways, here's how it panned out:

The Good:
1. NYG -1.5 vs CHI: This was the first game I thought was going to screw me. Manning had yet another terrible day, and it seemed like Good Rex showed up. In the final minutes, the G-Men were down by 2, and driving down the field. A big completion gets them within field goal range, and past the 2 minute warning. Your humble narrator is stewing at his girlfriends apartment, trying not to let on that I've blown more money on gambling instead of on xmas presents. I'm cursing the damn half-point spread when WHAT? They throw a quick slant down to the 2 yd line... Could they be going for the Touchdown? 1st and goal and Droughs run it in untouched! The Giants go up by 6, hold on and cover the spread. Unbelievable. First time that's happened all year. +$4.35 profit.

2. JAX +6.5 vs IND: I kept watching the score flash across the screen and it seemed like Indy was up by 14 the whole time. This of course meant that JAX was going to have to try to out-gun Indy, which I figured would lead to an even bigger Indy victory. Very distressing. Plus, I'm once again cursing the half-point as a 14 point deficit is terrible if your betting on a +6.5 spread, since the Jags are gonna have to score two TDs to tie, and field goals are useless... so the game might as well be a pick-em. I didn't see the end of the game, but somehow the final score was 28-25! Did JAX actually kick a useless field goal to go down by 11, then score a TD and convert the 2-point conversion? All to beat the half-point spread? Yes! +4.55 profit.

3. 4-Team Teaser!
a) CLE +7 vs. ARI: As I mentioned above, CLE got hosed by the final call of the game. Winslow was clearly pushed out of the endzone. Didn't affect my teaser, though, since the final margin was 6 points. I think this is a mulligan game for CLE... They are still a tough team, but yesterday they turned the ball over stupidly 3 times.
b) TB +9 vs NO: Ever since week 2, I've been on the Tampa bandwagon, and they came through against unreliable NO this week, even without Garcia (which made me nervous). Was that Luke McCown leading them to almost 30 points? unreal.
c) NYJ +7 vs MIA: I still can't believe MIA was favored in this game. It confused me so much I started to believe it was some Vegas trick, a trap game to lure people into betting for the Jets... some trick, the final score was 40-13. I don't think I'd bet the Jets against anyone except MIA, so I'm pretty psyched to walk away with this one.
d) HOU +9.5 vs TN: Is it me or does Shaub get injured on every play? The guy needs to take the rest of the year off and get healed. The season is done anyways. I thought this game would be a lot closer, but thankfully TN was favored by 3.5, bumping my teaser spread to 9.5, just enough to cover the 8 point differential.
+$15.00 profit.

The Bad: Only CLE didn't win this week. Stupid Refs...

Weekly Total: +$18.90

Week 12 - Sunday Blues - Weekly Roundup

Well it started off so well with Thursday football. My last second changes to include indy and GB into the mix hit on Thankgiving, giving me a huge leg up on Sunday. Then it all went to crap.

First, the good:
IND vs ATL - I correctly added indy into the mix wednesday night, figuring they were a deep enough team to beat up lowly ATL. They are, and they did. I look forward to betting with IND and against ATL the rest of the way.

GB vs DET- It all came true.... DET was overrated and not given enough points, and GB went in there and spanked 'em. I added GB to my parlay and was looking forward to cashing in on Sunday.... Look for GB to keep winning, and keep an eye on any game they are not laying more than a field goal.

JAX vs BUF- I got this one right, too. JAX is the real deal, built for cold-weather power football. BUF is scrappy, but not ready to handle a team like this. BUF is still a good pick against the middle teams, though.

The Bad:
TN vs CIN- wow. 35-6. it wasn't even a game. My comment last week was that TN should just run over the Cincy defense. They didn't. The TN defense either misses Albert Haynesworth that much, or CIN just remembered how to play. Either way this pick blew up my parlay and half of my single-game picks.

KC vs OAK- I wisely moved them out of my parlay, but then stuck with them in two teasers, figuring that with a +0.5 at home against 2-win Oakland, it was a lock. It wasn't. I'm not sure what happened in this game, but it coast me two teasers.

ARI vs SF- The cards got beat by SF. Pathetic. Pathetic. Pathetic.

DEN vs CHI- Devin frickin Hester. Good for my fantasy team, bad for my single-game bet.

Eeesh...

net losses = $25.00

Week 11 - Put a Cap in yo' Weekly Roundup!

Well I've been waiting over a month to have a week like this. Meat and Meade for all my men! I don't know if this was a fluke week, or finally turning past the learning curve but yours truly successfully capped almost every game this week. The only one I know I missed was the Raiders game, which unfortunately I had in my parlay. Using a 4-team teaser as a backup worked brilliantly however, as OAK covered their +10.5, even though they lost vs. their base spread of +4.5.

I am particularly proud of the games I elected to avoid (see last post). Getting out of the way of SD away at JAX with Garrard back, MIA (who pushed) with Beck in his first start, and Buffalo trying to keep the game within 16 points made my week. Sticking to the games I had the least concern about was definitely a winning strategy this week.

The Good:
1. WAS +11 vs DAL paid $5.71 profit
2. STL -3 vs SF paid $5.71 profit
3. [KC +20.5 vs IND -- NE -10 vs BUF -- WAS +17 vs DAL -- OAK +10.5 vs MIN] paid $18.00 profit.

The Bad:
OAK +4.5 vs MIN lost $6.00

Total Bets = $24.00
Total Profit = $23.42
Return = 98%

If I had the stones, I would hit the moneyline on the underdog Titans tonight in Denver, but I'm walking away from the table up for this week.

Week 9 - Postgame Analysis - All hail the box!

For the first time since week 2 I actually picked a correct sequence of winners! And of course those two winning parlays were all based on the box... All hail the box! All hail the box!

Total Wagers = $22.00
Total Retained = $11.00
Total Winnings = $42.00

Man the Box was amazing this week. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it went 11-3, right? Luckily I avoided the losers, and hit two parlays to get me back in the game.

For the season I am still down $127. Doh!

Week 8 - Capper's Bet Results - All Hail GB

Keeping in stride with my Mad Capper avatar, I made the crazy decision to place a last minute bet on GB:

GB +2 at Den; and
GB +130 at Den

GBs overtime victory won both the moneyline bet and the spread bet, netting me some cash. Now I need to decide if I stick with my all-in philosophy of the last couple weeks or spread it out a little.

Week 4 - Postgame Analysis

You know, I watched upset after upset go down, and got really frustrated, until i realized I actually did ok. The big loser was the moneyline betting. When the upsets hit, the moneylines just fell apart. Seeing as the payouts on winning the moneylines are so low, i am tempted to scrap the whole thing and stick with the spreads, especially considering that although over the 14 games this weekend I only got 5 right (possibly 6 with NE v CIN tonight), I don't bet all the games, only my top 9, and all 5 (or 6) were in my parlays. The parlay system I use did what it is supposed to, and pulled out one winner, which covered all the other losers, plus netted me a small profit. Pretty good for an off week. Unfortunately I got killed in the moneylines, so netted a 50% loss this week... terrible.

Week 4 comments:

PHI vs NYG - man this was a killer. I got your text about westbrook, but honestly i doubt it would have mattered. 12 sacks? Just plain awful. Taking the season as a whole it looks like the DET game was a fluke last week. I'm very anti Philly right now.

NYJ vs BUF - wtf? I know you had buffalo covering, but i don't get this one. This was my #2 pick this week, and it hit me really hard. Cost me 3 parlays. Lesson learned - my top 3 from now on will include picks that the box and I agree on, with a possibility of one replacement.

BAL vs CLE - again, wtf? again, i know you had cle covering, and yeah, i don't get it. Apparently I need to rethink these two teams the rest of the year. Suddenly CLE is 2-2, and has covered the spread 3 weeks straight. Meanwhile Baltimore is 2-2, and isn't covering spreads. Squeaking past NYJ, ARI, and losing to CLE and CIN is telling me to pick against these guys from now on.

OAK vs MIA - ok, we both picked correctly here, but the idea to hedge and pick MIA in the moneyline was not a good one. Hedging with parlays is a terrible idea, it seems, since you are likely to lose one of the parlays. It's hard enough to pick several teams to win in a group. Of course, if I had hit the middle I would be shouting how great an idea it was....

ARI vs PIT - Arizona is a spread buster. This week the upset PIT, last week they covered vs. BAL, Week 2 they upset SEA, and Week 1 they almost beat SF. I'm upgrading these guys, much like I did with TB this week.

TB vs. CAR - this one worked out great. You and I both liked this game, upgraded them from earlier in the year and now.... crap! Cadillac is out with a knee injury. What to do with them next week?

So I'm not sure if you bet the way you you sent out in your last email, but if you did, it looked like you got beat up trying to hedge those games. You correctly picked OAK, TB, and ARI to cover. Unfortunately they all upset and you would have lost your hedge bet on the moneyline, yielding a negative... Are you going to stick with the hedging?

Final thought... I am so pissed about the moneyline thing I am tempted to throw down $25 on the pats to cover tonight. Then I think... I may have a gambling problem.

TMC

Week 3 - Postgame Analaysis

Well I'm fairly satisfied with the results this week. I did win one parlay, my 1, 2, 3 (Dal, GB, Car). This win covered my other bets, plus netted me $20.

The big help the Black Box gave me was solidifying my top 3. We agreed on Dallas and GB, but I wouldn't have had them so high without cross-referencing them with your list. My huge decision this week was to move MIN down out of the top 3, despite the fact that we both had them covering, when I read that T. Jackson was injured. I slid my personal #1 choice into the #3 spot (CAR), even though the box didn't have them covering. So the combination of using my personal calls and crossing them with the box seems to have worked out well.

As for the big losers this week:

(1) MIN doesn't cover vs. KC- I definitely need to do more analysis besides "KC just sucks". This one looked like it was going my way most of the game, but KC pulled it out at the end. I should have backed out of this game when I heard the starting QB was out.

(2) WAS loses to NYG- This seems to be one of those upsets that will happen every week. We both felt WAS would cover the spread, so I think this one I just have to live with.

(3) DET doesn't cover vs PHI- man this game was insane. I think I'd make the same bet next time. Once again we agreed, but just got beat. I don't know who would have seen PHI put up 56 points this week after their first two showings.

(4) STL loses to TB- I think it's time to take TB seriously. This is one of those games I just didn't trust STL's prior poor play or TB's prior good play. TB lost to WAS (a good team), beat NO and STL, so they are gonna be a part of my betting system now, if Vegas still has them as underdogs for a while. As for STL, I think I'm staying away from them. They can win any day of the week, but are just as likely to lay and egg like they have the first 3 weeks.

(5) SEA doesn't cover vs CIN- I am getting the feeling SEA isn't going to blow out many teams this year, so with tight spreads I'm going to pick against them if they are favored, and with them if they are the 'dog. I don't think you had them covering, either.

A couple games pushed this week, which is a little weird. Mia vs NYJ, IND vs HOU come to mind. Both of which we disagreed on.

Anyway, my $55 won me me $75, so there's a %36 return on investment this week. Not great, but with a couple tweeks in my parlay system I think I can up it in the next couple weeks.

-TMC-