Monday, September 22, 2008

Round up the Losses - Week 3

This week was Coyote Ugly, I'd chew my arm off to escape this week's results unnoticed. Even my last-second change to drop NE-6.5 in my 4th Teaser in favor of ATL+1 did nothing to save me. Only my low-stakes Den-230 bet won this week, here's how it went:

1st, what I did right:

1. TN+1 over HOU - TN is continuing to show they are a force in the AFC this year. I liked the Kerry Collins move, and they rolled over HOU as expected.

*Looking Forward: TN is 3-0 and probably will get bumped up by Vegas this week. Look out for unrealistic spreads.

2. PHI -3 over PIT - This game went as planned, with PHI just being better than PIT. I still like both these teams, but keep an eye on Rothlisberger's shoulder injury. I'm not even sure who their backup is...

*Looking Forward: Westbrook is out for a while, a big loss for PHI, but this team is very good. I'm not sure how Vegas will treat them since they are 2-1 but remember that loss came away at 3-0 Dallas.

3. DEN -230 - over NO - Turns out the spread was too high so my decision to stick with the MOneyline and use them as a +0.5 Teaser pick was well done. Both teams feature dynamic offenses with zero D.

*Looking Forward - NO dropped to 1-2 so look for them to be undervalued this week. They are goiong to win some games against teams that cannot keep up with their scoring ability. DEN is now 3-0 and is going to start getting high spreads that are going to be tough to justify.

4. ATL+1 over KC - This was a last-second entry to one of my Teasers based on KC's decision to start Tyler Thigpen at QB. ATL destroyed KC, who are looking very very bad.

*Looking Forward - I think I see the recipe here.... ATL has young talent that can outmatch weak opponents. This leads to them covering spreads in such games. Against stronger opponents their inexperience is a huge liabilty and they will get beaten badly.

4 good bets seems like a solid week, right? Well not when they're rolled up with these losers:

1. CAR +3.5 over MIN - This game looked so good to me last week, I am still in shock. Adrian Peterson has an injured hamstring, they are forced to bring in 37 yr old Frerotte due to poor QB play and CAR is healthy and on the rise, plus they get 3.5 points. MIN wins by 10, destroying not only the Moneyline bet (+170) and parlay, but the teaser with them at +9.5. This one killed me. I need to watch the highlights to see what happend here.

*Looking Forward: So is MIN the team everyone was droooling over in Preseason? I think it's safe to say we have no idea at this point. Their 0-2 start might have been an stumble, but I don't think we really know at this point. CAR is still a solid team worth taking a shot on.

2. CLE+2 over BAL - This was another death blow. I bet that they would snap out of their funk and return to last year's winning ways against a BAL team that on paper has very little to offer. Well I got punished for this wishful thinking in both my Moneyline (CLE +120) and Teaser (CLE+8) bets. It's amazing that low-scoring BAL was able to beat supposedly high-scoring CLE by more than 8 points, just amazing. I'm so depressed.

*Looking Forward: I think it's time to admit CLE is a loser this year. However, everyone else is thinking the same thing, so look for them to beat some spreads. BAL... I still know nothing about this team. They're 2-0, but with Flacco and Harbaugh in their frst year, will they keep it up? I'm guessing not, and hoping they get overrated by Vegas against some tougher teams.

3. DET+10 over SF - Yes, I praised JT O'Sullivan and than promptly bet against him... twice. My theory was that even if SF pulls out the victory, that DET's high-scoring offense would keep the game closer than 10 points. That was a great idea until they got rocked. How bad are the Lions exactly?

*Looking Forward: I was really hoping nobody but me would notice that the 49ers have looked very good so far. I'm guessing that the cat isn't in that bag anymore, so follow the spreads very carefuly. DET is a wildcard that will bust some spreads and never reward you. Only bet against them.

4. Buf +3.5 over OAK - I'm not sure what to do with Oakland. They busted up this spread, and really should have won this game.

*Looking Forward: I have a sneaking suspicion that this team is being held together with silly string by Kiffin.... and I just read he'll be fired today. Buf is 3-0, but cost me by not covering their spread against an apparently weak opponent. Bet them whenever they are 'dogs, but when is that going to happen exactly?

The SD -3 bet will be decided tonight, but my Teasers and Parlays are already busted, so it won't matter. Going 4-4 (so far) this week doesn't seem awful, but it hurts when those loses are divided up equally when you are parlay betting like me.

I have to stay the course, though. The only way to get back on top is to continue to bet big.

Weekly Bets = $40
Weekly Profit = (-$32)

Total Bets = $80
Total Profits = (-$22)
Total Return = -27.5%

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