Thursday, September 18, 2008

Like a Grizzly Duels a Silverback: Capper vs. Vegas Week 3!

Vegas threw some heavy punches with their spreads this week. I have to say I am impressed, they make it very difficult to bet on the top teams, and make it risky to bet on the underdogs. Well done, chaps, well done...



- I capped this game at ATL -1, so in theory I should go with KC, but how confident am I that KC stays within 2 field goals? Not at all. By the way Thigpen something or other is the new QB for KC. I'm absolutely staying away from this game.

MadCapper's Pick: None.
Confidence Level: None.



- I capped this game at Buf -7, so once again if I were to stick to my guns I'd have to pick the underdog. This is absolutely what I warned about yesterday - Vegas is over-reacting with big spreads to BUF's new-found success. I am confident BUF wins this game, so I would take them in a teaser, but not not straight-up giving up 9.5 points:

MadCapper's Pick: BUF +3.5 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 90%



- I was giving TN 4 points, so I am pretty much in agreement with Vegas here. HOU is still sort of an unknown since Ike forced a bye last week, but TN has really shown it is tough on defense and can run the ball effectively. I like them to win at home, once again I say Teaser:

MadCapper's Pick: TN +1 (6-point Teaser))
Confidence Level: 90%



- Everyone is counting on this being a blowout, and the spread reflects this. Will NYG will by 13? 14? 10? 20? Predicting margins like this is unhealthy, so I say stay away.

MadCapper's Pick: None.
Confidence Level: None.

+150+3 (-105)

-170-3 (-115)

- I hit the nail on the head here with WAS -3. This is a risky game to me, despite ARI's "consistency" beating very weak teams to go 2-0. I'd say go with a Moneyline +150 wager and try to catch the bonus money, or swing a Teaser to make it ARI +9:

MadCapper's Pick: ARI +9 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 60%



- Wow! What difference a week makes, eh? NE wins a game against lowly KC, and MIA gets blown out by a high-powered offense and suddenly NE is a huge favorite? I absolutely think NE wins this game, but continues with their circa 2001 field position and ball control game plan. Can they win by 13? Sure! Is it a safe bet? Hell no... The Moneyline at -800 is worthless, and a Teaser only gets you down to -6.5:

MadCapper's Pick: NE -6.5 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 60%



- Again Vegas and I slap five and give it at CHI -3. The box seems to love TB as an upset pick here, but I don't think so. TB lost to a suspect NO, beat a weak ATL and their starting QB is out injured. CHI upset Indy and hung tight with CAR to the end. I like CHI as a Moneyline pick, here, trading 3 points for a 2:3 payout:

MadCapper's Pick: CHI -150
Confidence Level: 70%



- Why is MIN still favored after going 0-2 and benching their starting QB you ask? NO CLUE! This is one of my picks of the week, I cap this at CAR -2, so I feel like I'm getting bonus money on the Moneyline, plus 5.5 more points than I need. Hell, I might even do a teaser to make it CAR +9.5, too! Do you really think MIN blows CAR out?

MadCapper's Pick: CAR +3.5, CAR +170, CAR +9.5 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 90%



- eck. In other news, I tried a Bulgarian wine last night ("No Man's Land"). Apparently the vines grew into maturity along the Iron Curtain during the Cold War. Definitely drinkable, but tasted as cheap as it was ($4.99).

MadCapper's Pick: None.
Confidence Level: None.



- Whoa ho ho.... Apparently someone else WAS watching JT O'Sullivan last week. As I mentioned yesterday, I am now a fan of Martz's new student, but I really didn't expect to see SF favored, let alone by so many. What jumps out at me is a Teaser gives DET +10. If SF wins this game, they are going to have to outgun Kitna, C. Johnson, and R. Williams. I don't see them winning by that many, if at all:

MadCapper's Pick: DET +10 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 90%



- I really like DEN at home this week. I may even be willing to pay the terrible DEN -230 Moneyline. A teaser makes it basically straight up:

MadCapper's Pick: DEN -230, DEN +0.5 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 80%

+165+3 (+105)

-190-3 (-125)

- I like Philly by 6, so I like them in all sorts of bets this week:

MadCapper's Pick: PHI -3, PHI -190, PHI+3 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 70%



- JAX traditionally matches up well with IND, so it's tempting to go with them and the points... but nah, too risky:

MadCapper's Pick: None.
Confidence Level: None.



- This is my 2nd upside-down game of the week. I MadCap this game at CLE -2, so I'm looking at the Moneyline bonus payouts, the Teaser, and maybe in a parlay with the 2 points:

MadCapper's Pick: CLE +120, CLE +2, CLE +8 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 70%

-165-3 (-120)

+145+3 (even)

- GB finally got some respect this week. This is exactly like last week's game vs. PHI.... only DAL is not at home, but at Lambeau. Predicting the score of this game is nearly impossible, so I'd say if you're gonna bet it, nail the Moneyline with GB and hope for the bonus payout:

MadCapper's Pick: GB+145
Confidence Level: 60%

New York Jets

San Diego Chargers

- Wow I am having some technical difficulties with the formatting, but the point is SD definitely wins this game. The SD-3 Teaser is also a nice option here.

MadCapper's Pick: SD -3 (6-point Teaser)
Confidence Level: 80%

No comments: