Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Week 03 - Rank This, Byatch

So this is the first week I have full volatility and game value ranks along with performance ranks. Game value is only minorly important, so I've excluded it for the time being. In terms of betting, volatility is a bigger issue earlier in the season, and I was surprised with what I saw. Note that the highest ranked teams are the MOST CONSISTENT, with lower ranks as LESS CONSISTENT.

Also, remember that these ranks are about the bet, not the team. No whining about "oh, my team is ranked so poorly and they're good... waaaah." Sometimes the best teams are bad bets, since Vegas gives them big spreads in reaction to public perception. GB, as the Capper so adeptly pointed out, is for some reason getting weak spreads and just wrecking them. Even this week, they are discounted against a darling Dallas team. TB is in the same boat, having beat the spread two weeks in a row, but still getting the shaft on spreads. So these ranks put in perspective what teams make sense to bet in a macro league sense.

But first, the overall ranks:

Power Ranks ▲▼
1 GB ▲1
2 DAL ▲4
3 ARI ▲13
4 TB ▲3
5 BAL ▲6
6 CHI ▲12
7 CLE ▲19
8 WAS ▲16
9 DEN ▲1
10 PHI ▼9
11 NO ▲6
12 IND ▼4
13 BUF ▲8
14 KC ▲11
15 TEN ▲4
16 SD ▼12
17 MIN ▼12
18 NYG ▼6
19 JAC ▼6
20 OAK ▲11
21 CAR ▼6
22 HOU
23 PIT ▼14
24 NYJ ▼4
25 NE ▼22
26 DET ▲2
27 SF ▲2
28 ATL ▲2
29 CIN ▼6
30 MIA ▼3
31 SEA ▼17
32 STL
* Excludes BYE week teams!

Big surprises? Absolutely. What's it mean? DON'T BET ON THE BOTTOM QUARTER if you can help it. Sometimes you can't. But check out the meteoric plummet from Seattle, down 17 spots. Worse than KC, you're asking? This week, yes. They are giving 9 points to a weak St. Louis team as opposed to KC, who's getting 5 from a volatile Atlanta team. By the box's standard, expect better performance out of KC, as hard as that is to believe, against this week's spreads.

Here are the volatility, it'll help put it in some context:

Rank Vol
5 NO
8 KC
10 CIN
11 ARI
12 DET
13 CHI
14 TB
15 DAL
16 TEN
17 NYJ
18 BUF
19 SD
20 NE
21 OAK
22 HOU
23 GB
24 IND
25 SF
26 NYG
27 JAC
28 PIT
29 ATL
30 WAS
31 SEA
32 STL
* Excludes BYE week teams!

Now it makes sense why KC is valued above Seattle overall - despite Seattle being a better team, they are totally chaotically volatile over the last 2 weeks. Now, over time, these ranks get honed much better, but for now, it's unclear which Seattle will show up - able to perform, or totally incompetent. KC at least is predictably terrible, which in gambling, is much better than being totally unpredictable.

I'm waiting for Friday to make my bets with the cheap juice, but tomorrow I'll give the preliminary picks. Not a ton of action over the last few days, very few line moves of note, so could be a good week for betting. Let the games begin!

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