Friday, September 19, 2008

Fightin' Words - Capper vs. Box

Ah Matty, finally we are back to the good ol' days when we actually disagree! Last week we both had about a 25% return, and not surprisingly we picked a lot of the same victors. This week the box has a lot of wtf picks, methinks.

1. TB +3 vs CHI isn't a terrible pick, but this game could easily go CHI's way. I'm pretty shocked this is the number 1 confidence pick.

2. BAL -2 vs CLE... I know CLE hasn't shown much this year, but it's only been two games and they lost to two superpowers, PIT and DAL. This team is slightly banged up, but still has all the key components in place that led to their surprising success last year. BAL was god-awful last year, and I don't see where their improvents are. I have CLE in a number of bets this week, so prepare to duel my friend.

3. GB +3 vs DAL... Much like your #1 pick, I have no problem picking GB, but this could easily go to DAL also. Like I commented yesterday, are those 3 points really gonna make a difference? If DAL wins they could just as easily win by 4, 7, or 10, so why not pick the Moneyline and take the bonus payout?

4. ARI +3 @ WAS... Another 'yeah it could happen' pick. But how much do we really know about either of these two teams? Very surprised the box likes this game so much, and I'm worried it is based on ARI's stomping of weak teams. Even if you wanted to throw your money away on this game, I'd say take the Moneyline and hope for the bonus payout, 'cause those 3 points seem pretty irrelevant to me.

As you may know... I love the Teaser bet. I find that I lose many parlays and straight-up bets by just a few points, not because I was way off, and historically i tend to hit a lot of my Teaser bets. Case and point for me is last week where i landed a 4-team teaser. All this is leading up to something... I give you my Week 3 bets:


CAR +3.5 @ MIN -- PHI -3 vs. PIT -- CLE +2 @ BAL


1. SD -3 vs. NYJ -- TN +1 vs. HOU -- DET +10 @ SF
2. SD-3 vs. NYJ -- CAR +9.5 @ MIN -- BUF -3.5 vs. OAK
3. DEN +0.5 vs. NO -- TN +1 vs. HOU -- CLE +8 @ BAL
4. ATL +1 vs. KC -- PHI +3 vs. PIT -- DET +10 @ SF


1. DEN -230 vs NO
2. CAR +170 @ MIN
3. CLE +120 @ BAL

Suck it.

No comments: