Enough of Week 13 already! We've got games to cap... Here's your weekly pregame analysis and Madcapping:
1. CHI at WAS: Sad as it is to say, the Skins were in trouble pre-Sean Taylor murder, and their season is done now. The whole team (defeated) went to the funeral early this week in Miami, then had to travel back to WAS to practice. CHI has actually shown some moxie lately, and the force tells me they are going to play spoiler the rest of the way. Good Rex shows up and wins. CHI-2.
2. CAR at JAX: Carolina looks so bad, and JAX so good that it's only a matter of picking the number of points to give the panthers. JAX -12.
3. DAL at DET: The Detroit freefall has reached critical velocity, and here comes Dallas to play Roadrunner to the Lion's Wiley Coyote. Detroit is having trouble blocking the pass rush, and they are gonna have to throw to keep up with The Cowboys explosive O. This could be bad. Very Very bad. DAL -10.
4. MIA at BUF: I read an interesting stat today in Peter King's MMQB - Buffalo is 6-3 in the last nine games. The three losses? Patriots - JAX - Cowboys - a collective 31-5. BUF is an honest to goodness contender, and I'm a believer. Oh yeah, MIA is playing in this game, too. BUF -5.
5. NYG at PHI: You know I actually like Philly's chances this week. Not enough to pick them to win, but to make this game basically a pick-em, especially in the Linc. The Giants are a better team, but Philly's blitz schemes are gonna give stumbling bumbling Manning fits. Giants pull it out in the end, though. NYG -1.
6. OAK at GB: Favre is hurt, but will play. GB just lost an emotional game at Dallas, and the lowly Raiders come in unexpectedly and make a game of this. Has anyone else notice backup RB Fargas (or is it Vargas?) is a steamroller? OAK has actually played tough the last two weeks, winning both games (and screwing me in the process). GB wakes up in the 4th quarter down by 3 points. Favre drives 'em down for the winning score. GB-4.
7. PIT at NE: I'm a little nervous about the Wave Theory here. All the media attention has been on the chinks in the Patriot armor, and ever since the Colts' game, PIT has been labelled the last hope for the '72 Dolphins. Why nervous? Everything points to a close game, with PIT possibly pulling it out. Downward pressure on the spread this week, perhaps? I faintly smell a NE blowout in this one, but it's not strong enough to call a huge victory. NE -6.
8. SD at TN: Two teams that have taken their lumps, and that have won games playing like they could be the AFC champ. TN's at home... but screw it. I'm going with Excelius here and saying Young sucks so Haynesworth Schmaynesworth. SD -1.
9. STL at CIN: Super suck travels to play somewhat suck. Bulger is still hurt, CIN is at home... and I wasn't gonna pick STL anyways. CIN -5.
10. TB at HOU: Two of my favorite underdogs. With Shaub unable to stay healthy, I don't think HOU is enough of a threat to take down TB, who continues to outplay itself on paper. Was that a McCown throwing for 300 yds this week? HOU's defense is better than NO's, but not good enough for me. TB -3.
11. ARI at SEA: ARI loses to SF, then beats CLE. Their record is 6-6 and I hereby label them a multiple personality team, shunned from all betting henceforth and evermore... In any case, SEA has upped their game, and finally are breaking away from the rest of the poor NFC West. SEA -3.
12. MIN vs SF: I'm jumping on the MIN bandwagon while there is still room. Peterson is back and... did you see him juke that Lions' safety on Sunday.... looks amazing. T. Jackson seems to have figured out how to play QB, and they've got the Crappy Niners at the plate. Love MIN big, this week. MIN -9.
13. CLE at NYJ: The Jets pounded MIA last week. Exactly, who cares? CLE (Patriots 2.0) is still a serious contender and will win at New York (Patriots 3.0). I'm giving the Brownies a mulligan for last week. The lost that game to stupid turnovers, which I'm confident won't happen again. CLE -6.
14. KC at DEN: I seriously don't know what to do with these two teams. They basically cloned from the same disappointing stem cell, and will eek out a suprising win now and then. Both are capable of winning, but both tend to lose. DEN is at home, so I'll give them the edge. DEN -2.
15. IND at BAL: After that emotional MNF last minute loss to the Patriots, the Colts are going to come into Baltimore and just destroy the Ravens. This is a hangover week, they are whining about the officials, Billick's face is melting off (Have you seen him in interviews lately? **shudder**)... IND -12.
16. NO at ATL: My rationale here is that NO is capable of big offense + ATL still has no QB solution, and little defense to speak of. NO wins big. NO -8.
OK, so I guess it's time to review what Vegas has to say about these games. I'll return with my Delta Force comparison.
Showing posts with label pre vegas handicaps. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pre vegas handicaps. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Week 12 - Madcapping and guaranteed non punditry!
Boy am I glad my lack-a-sac senses prevented me from putting money on TEN last night. Yet another bullet I dodged in Week 11. Let's see if I can continue my matrix-like evasions for Week 12....
GB at DET: I forsee picking GB in this game, since they are killing the spread this year, and for some reason, DET is always overrated. I like GB to destroy DET in this game, and I'm thinking Vegas only gives them a slight edge. GB -11.
NYJ at DAL: I was really snobby about the Jets last week, and the went in and upset PIT. Seems to be a theme for me this year. In theory this game should be everything last week wasn't. Dallas is rolling and I don't see how the Jets can compete. No pass rush = TDs for TO. DAL -11.
IND at ATL: How is it that Indy has all these cheesepuff teams when they are injured? Indy clearly is the favorite here, but this game is actually on thursday, giving them only a few days rest, plus all the injuries..... IND -8.
TEN at CIN: Vince Young has thrown for more than 250 yds two weeks in a row - and they've lost both games. Albert Haynesworth's injury seems to be having a serious effect on TN's Defense also. Last night I expected TN to run all over the Broncos, and didn't. I would make the same prediction this week - run run run - but will they? They wouldn't go pass-whacky two weeks in a row against terrible run-defense teams woud they? TEN -5.
BUF at JAX: This game could end up being really interesting. Buffalo is scrappy as hell, fighting for their playoff lives while JAX is one of those teams that keeps winning, but unspectacularly. Although after last week I have a feeling Losman might be wetting his jockstrap for the rest of the year. JAX -4.
OAK at KC: KC is another scrappy-ass team. OAK seems to have lost its will (or possibly never had the ability?), and KC is still in the AFC West hunt. Plus the game is in Arrowhead. KC -3.
HOU at CLE: Surprisingly enough, these are two of my favorite teams to watch right now. Weird, huh? Anyway, beware the Texans! This year's stats and past performance you can throw out the window now that Shaub and Johnson are back (exhibit A - last week vs NO). CLE is playing so well, though, plus they have that 'team of destiny' feeling like GB does in the NFC. I think I'll stay clear of this game, it could go either way, but for madcapping purposes I'll take the Dog Pound CLE -2.
SEA at STL: This is one of those games you want to bet your house on, until you see SEA turn the ball over 6 times and fall down trying to tie their shoelaces. Then you have to find a cardboard box big enough to keep the rain off you at night... This game should be a SEA win, but I don't trust SEA to be good, and STL to stink. What are the beta values on this team, btw? SEA -5.
MIN at NYG: MIN pisses me off. They suck just enough to not cover spreads when they are favored, and show up in games when they should get creamed. I'm just bitter because they beat OAK by 7 last week and busted my parlay. NYG -8.
NO at CAR: Can Carolina beat anyone? I mean, do they atleast have MIA or STL on their schedule? NO is officially on the shelf with DET and PHI in the Multiple Personality closet, but they should win this one. NO -7.
WAS at TB: Tough game. TB plays tough every week, Garcia keeps 'em in all the games, I like Ernest Graham... all the same stuff I say every week. WAS seems to be the best at just barely losing. TB -1.
SF at ARI: *sigh* I'm gonna get creamed for this, but what can you do? ARI -9.
DEN at CHI: Cutler looked like Elway last night. Maybe he's turned the corner? Atleast maybe his better than Rex. DEN -4.
BAL at SD: I accidentally hit 'alt' instead of 'shift' when i first typed, and got these crazy wingding characters. I like this one so much - Å - I will henceforth use it whenever I talk about BÅL. Oh, right. Football. BÅL is a bunch of whiny bitches on defense, and still don't have a quarterback. SD... hey! did you see Shawne "My pecs are real, i swear" Merriman get pasted by little MJD last week? One of the coolest things I've ever seen. MJD popped him in the chest head-on and Mr. Real-Pecs dropped like a sack of Balco Powder. Frickin Awesome. SD -3.
PHI at NE: Does anyone ever bet against the Patriots? Why doesn't Vegas put up some stupid spread like -39 and see what happens. NE -39.
MIA at PIT: Remember last week when I said "um...yeah PIT -12". Screw you PIT! Now I'm in the exact same position as last week and my choices are to ignore last week and risk looking like the idiot who didn't pay attention or adjusting and looking like the idiot who thought MIA could hang in this game. PIT -10.
TMC
GB at DET: I forsee picking GB in this game, since they are killing the spread this year, and for some reason, DET is always overrated. I like GB to destroy DET in this game, and I'm thinking Vegas only gives them a slight edge. GB -11.
NYJ at DAL: I was really snobby about the Jets last week, and the went in and upset PIT. Seems to be a theme for me this year. In theory this game should be everything last week wasn't. Dallas is rolling and I don't see how the Jets can compete. No pass rush = TDs for TO. DAL -11.
IND at ATL: How is it that Indy has all these cheesepuff teams when they are injured? Indy clearly is the favorite here, but this game is actually on thursday, giving them only a few days rest, plus all the injuries..... IND -8.
TEN at CIN: Vince Young has thrown for more than 250 yds two weeks in a row - and they've lost both games. Albert Haynesworth's injury seems to be having a serious effect on TN's Defense also. Last night I expected TN to run all over the Broncos, and didn't. I would make the same prediction this week - run run run - but will they? They wouldn't go pass-whacky two weeks in a row against terrible run-defense teams woud they? TEN -5.
BUF at JAX: This game could end up being really interesting. Buffalo is scrappy as hell, fighting for their playoff lives while JAX is one of those teams that keeps winning, but unspectacularly. Although after last week I have a feeling Losman might be wetting his jockstrap for the rest of the year. JAX -4.
OAK at KC: KC is another scrappy-ass team. OAK seems to have lost its will (or possibly never had the ability?), and KC is still in the AFC West hunt. Plus the game is in Arrowhead. KC -3.
HOU at CLE: Surprisingly enough, these are two of my favorite teams to watch right now. Weird, huh? Anyway, beware the Texans! This year's stats and past performance you can throw out the window now that Shaub and Johnson are back (exhibit A - last week vs NO). CLE is playing so well, though, plus they have that 'team of destiny' feeling like GB does in the NFC. I think I'll stay clear of this game, it could go either way, but for madcapping purposes I'll take the Dog Pound CLE -2.
SEA at STL: This is one of those games you want to bet your house on, until you see SEA turn the ball over 6 times and fall down trying to tie their shoelaces. Then you have to find a cardboard box big enough to keep the rain off you at night... This game should be a SEA win, but I don't trust SEA to be good, and STL to stink. What are the beta values on this team, btw? SEA -5.
MIN at NYG: MIN pisses me off. They suck just enough to not cover spreads when they are favored, and show up in games when they should get creamed. I'm just bitter because they beat OAK by 7 last week and busted my parlay. NYG -8.
NO at CAR: Can Carolina beat anyone? I mean, do they atleast have MIA or STL on their schedule? NO is officially on the shelf with DET and PHI in the Multiple Personality closet, but they should win this one. NO -7.
WAS at TB: Tough game. TB plays tough every week, Garcia keeps 'em in all the games, I like Ernest Graham... all the same stuff I say every week. WAS seems to be the best at just barely losing. TB -1.
SF at ARI: *sigh* I'm gonna get creamed for this, but what can you do? ARI -9.
DEN at CHI: Cutler looked like Elway last night. Maybe he's turned the corner? Atleast maybe his better than Rex. DEN -4.
BAL at SD: I accidentally hit 'alt' instead of 'shift' when i first typed, and got these crazy wingding characters. I like this one so much - Å - I will henceforth use it whenever I talk about BÅL. Oh, right. Football. BÅL is a bunch of whiny bitches on defense, and still don't have a quarterback. SD... hey! did you see Shawne "My pecs are real, i swear" Merriman get pasted by little MJD last week? One of the coolest things I've ever seen. MJD popped him in the chest head-on and Mr. Real-Pecs dropped like a sack of Balco Powder. Frickin Awesome. SD -3.
PHI at NE: Does anyone ever bet against the Patriots? Why doesn't Vegas put up some stupid spread like -39 and see what happens. NE -39.
MIA at PIT: Remember last week when I said "um...yeah PIT -12". Screw you PIT! Now I'm in the exact same position as last week and my choices are to ignore last week and risk looking like the idiot who didn't pay attention or adjusting and looking like the idiot who thought MIA could hang in this game. PIT -10.
TMC
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Week 11 - Spread 'Em and Show Me the Box
Not much innuendo in that title.
So, just as an FYI Capper, here are the Box's "Predicted" spreads based on the stats. I'd be interested to see how big the differences are from the Box spreads - maybe you could have a Cap vs. The Box parlay.
Just at a glance, it looks like CAR would be your pick of the week if the Box were Vegas. Which also agrees with what the Box suggests - CAR is the 4th ranked pick, and a suggested double down bet based on the Beta.
So, just as an FYI Capper, here are the Box's "Predicted" spreads based on the stats. I'd be interested to see how big the differences are from the Box spreads - maybe you could have a Cap vs. The Box parlay.
| Favorite | Where | Vegas | Box | Dog |
| JAC | Home | -3.0 | -0.5 | SD |
| IND | Home | -14.5 | -4.8 | KC |
| CIN | Home | -3.0 | -2.3 | ARI |
| CLE | Away | -2.5 | -1.6 | BAL |
| TB | Away | -3.0 | -1.3 | ATL |
| HOU | Home | -1.0 | 1.3 | NO |
| GB | Home | -9.5 | -5.5 | CAR |
| MIN | Home | -5.0 | -2.8 | OAK |
| PHI | Home | -10.0 | -1.7 | MIA |
| NYG | Away | -2.5 | -2.2 | DET |
| PIT | Away | -9.5 | -1.9 | NYJ |
| DAL | Home | -10.5 | -4.4 | WAS |
| STL | Away | -2.5 | -1.7 | SF |
| SEA | Home | -5.5 | -3.1 | CHI |
| NE | Away | -16.0 | -4.1 | BUF |
| DEN | Home | -2.0 | 0.8 | TEN |
Just at a glance, it looks like CAR would be your pick of the week if the Box were Vegas. Which also agrees with what the Box suggests - CAR is the 4th ranked pick, and a suggested double down bet based on the Beta.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Week 11 - MadCapping and Prelim Picks
Week 11 descends... hopefully my bank account will not.
SD vs JAX: SD is definitely falling into the multiple personality disorder category, but I just don't trust Gray to lead JAX. With Indy losing, the division title is in sight for JAX, but I don't think they have the horses to get it done. SD -3
KC vs IND: Man Indy has a ton of injuries. Most of the line are backups, only Wayne is left in the receiver core and Freeney is out too. KC is a tough team, but B. Croyle is making his first start and the game is in Indy. Oh let's not forget that the Colts are awesome. IND -8.
OAK vs MIN: Two crapass teams. Atleast Min can run. Oh wait, Peterson tore his knee. Game's in MIN so let's give it to them. MIN -2.
CLE vs. BAL: You have to finally make CLE a favorite, don't you? Most improved team in the NFL, plus McNair's career is officially over. People are calling for Boller, and Billick might be on his way out. Even after Ray Lewis cold-cocked his teammates on national tv, blaming the offense's turnovers for their losing, they still coughed the ball up 5 times. CLE -4.
TB vs ATL: Atlanta's on a winning streak, watch out! just kidding. TB is still fighting for the division title, Garcia's still playing well, the D works, and Ernest Graham has been a great plug for their injured running game. Who's the QB for Atlanta anyway? TB -6.
ARI vs CIN: Cincy beat Baltimore last week, so they are on the rise, right? Wrong. Baltimore gave away 5 turnovers, and cincy still can't stop the run. ARI -2.
MIA vs PHI: Philly can't beat a good team, but they can beat a crappy one. PHI -5.
NO vs HOU: I think this is going to be my upset of the week. Bet the house on Houston. NO teased us a couple weeks in a row, then got blown out by the 0-8 Rams last week. So who are the Saints - the 0-4 team or the 4-0 team? Andre Johnson, Houston's top WR finally is back from a week 2 injury (my fantasy team salutes you!), and HOU has been playing tough all year. I think NO will be favored, but take the Texans. HOU -1.
CAR vs GB: GB looks good don't they? I like them big at home against the struggling Panthers who just fell apart after DelHomme went down. What happened to Julius Peppers this year (My fantasy team farts in your general direction)? GB -11.
NYG vs DET: Multiple Personality Alert! Screw this game, i'm not betting it. The Giants are a more complete team and should win, but who knows. Kitna might have God giving him playcalls and he hangs up 60 points. NYG -3.
PIT vs NYJ: um... yeah. PIT -12
WAS vs DAL: What is going on in Washington? Good players, good coaches, can't win. Dallas is on fuego so..... DAL -7.
STL vs. SF: eeeewww... what a stinker. I'm gonna say STL's shoulda-been firepower shows up after a good game last week and beats a terrible SF team. STL -4.
CHI vs SEA: Throw a touchdown to Berrian. Now don't fumble. Good Rex. Good. This game is kind of a toss-up for me, but Seattle is at homs. SEA -2.
NE vs Buf: The cobra kai yankees return! Sweep the leg Johnny! NE -10.
Ten vs. Den: I've gone back and forth on this one... but basically it comes down to 1 thing: Den can't stop the run and all TEN does is run. Ten -4.
I'll give you the Capper vs Vegas table tomorrow.
SD vs JAX: SD is definitely falling into the multiple personality disorder category, but I just don't trust Gray to lead JAX. With Indy losing, the division title is in sight for JAX, but I don't think they have the horses to get it done. SD -3
KC vs IND: Man Indy has a ton of injuries. Most of the line are backups, only Wayne is left in the receiver core and Freeney is out too. KC is a tough team, but B. Croyle is making his first start and the game is in Indy. Oh let's not forget that the Colts are awesome. IND -8.
OAK vs MIN: Two crapass teams. Atleast Min can run. Oh wait, Peterson tore his knee. Game's in MIN so let's give it to them. MIN -2.
CLE vs. BAL: You have to finally make CLE a favorite, don't you? Most improved team in the NFL, plus McNair's career is officially over. People are calling for Boller, and Billick might be on his way out. Even after Ray Lewis cold-cocked his teammates on national tv, blaming the offense's turnovers for their losing, they still coughed the ball up 5 times. CLE -4.
TB vs ATL: Atlanta's on a winning streak, watch out! just kidding. TB is still fighting for the division title, Garcia's still playing well, the D works, and Ernest Graham has been a great plug for their injured running game. Who's the QB for Atlanta anyway? TB -6.
ARI vs CIN: Cincy beat Baltimore last week, so they are on the rise, right? Wrong. Baltimore gave away 5 turnovers, and cincy still can't stop the run. ARI -2.
MIA vs PHI: Philly can't beat a good team, but they can beat a crappy one. PHI -5.
NO vs HOU: I think this is going to be my upset of the week. Bet the house on Houston. NO teased us a couple weeks in a row, then got blown out by the 0-8 Rams last week. So who are the Saints - the 0-4 team or the 4-0 team? Andre Johnson, Houston's top WR finally is back from a week 2 injury (my fantasy team salutes you!), and HOU has been playing tough all year. I think NO will be favored, but take the Texans. HOU -1.
CAR vs GB: GB looks good don't they? I like them big at home against the struggling Panthers who just fell apart after DelHomme went down. What happened to Julius Peppers this year (My fantasy team farts in your general direction)? GB -11.
NYG vs DET: Multiple Personality Alert! Screw this game, i'm not betting it. The Giants are a more complete team and should win, but who knows. Kitna might have God giving him playcalls and he hangs up 60 points. NYG -3.
PIT vs NYJ: um... yeah. PIT -12
WAS vs DAL: What is going on in Washington? Good players, good coaches, can't win. Dallas is on fuego so..... DAL -7.
STL vs. SF: eeeewww... what a stinker. I'm gonna say STL's shoulda-been firepower shows up after a good game last week and beats a terrible SF team. STL -4.
CHI vs SEA: Throw a touchdown to Berrian. Now don't fumble. Good Rex. Good. This game is kind of a toss-up for me, but Seattle is at homs. SEA -2.
NE vs Buf: The cobra kai yankees return! Sweep the leg Johnny! NE -10.
Ten vs. Den: I've gone back and forth on this one... but basically it comes down to 1 thing: Den can't stop the run and all TEN does is run. Ten -4.
I'll give you the Capper vs Vegas table tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Week 10 - Lions #1! - Mad Capper vs Vegas
I was pretty much on target this week, which doesn't make for interesting debate. However, the Lions vs Cardinals game wasn't even close - here's the breakdown:
VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER...............DIFF.
jax (+4.5) at ten.... jax (+5)..................... 0.5
den (+4) at KC....... den (+3)..................... 1.0
buf (-2.5) at mia.... buf (-6)..................... 3.5
cle (+9.5) at pit.... cle (+4)..................... 5.5
stl (+11.5) at NO.... stl (+10).................... 1.5
atl (+4) at car...... atl (+2)..................... 2.0
phi (+2.5) at was.... phi (+5)..................... 2.5
min (+6)at gb........ min (+5)..................... 1.0
cin (+4) at bal...... cin (+3)..................... 1.0
chi (-3) at oak...... chi (-4)..................... 1.0
dal (-1.5) at nyg.... dal (even) .................. 1.5
det (+1) at ari...... det (-10).................... 11.0
ind (-3.5) at sd..... ind (-6)..................... 2.5
sf (+10) at sea...... sf (+3)...................... 7.0
The games in red are those where there is more than a 3 point differential between me and the Vegas line. These are the picks I will concentrate on for betting the spread. In order of conviction:
1. det (+1) over ari - with an 11 point differential, this is easily the favorite of the week.
2.buf (-2.5) over mia - 3.5 differential, and the big 'mo' is going in opposite directions for miami and buffalo. love this pick.
3.cle (+9.5) over pit - Pit looks impressive, but i still think cleveland is underrated. As Matty pointed out, they are 6-1 vs the spread this year, and so far I don't think the spreads are giving them enough credit for the year they are having. Just for kicks, throw in the fact that Big Ben is hurting, they have a short week, and there may be a little lax attitude after blowing out division rival baltimore.
4.ind (-3.5) at sd - SD continues to wield some sort of gambling spell over the spreads, even though they aren't the team people think they are. Indy will rebound after losing a tough game to NE, and 3.5 points is not nearly enough respect for Indy.
The rest of the games are risky bets in my opinion.. they could go either way. I'll definitely be checking out the box before making my final picks.
VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER...............DIFF.
jax (+4.5) at ten.... jax (+5)..................... 0.5
den (+4) at KC....... den (+3)..................... 1.0
buf (-2.5) at mia.... buf (-6)..................... 3.5
cle (+9.5) at pit.... cle (+4)..................... 5.5
stl (+11.5) at NO.... stl (+10).................... 1.5
atl (+4) at car...... atl (+2)..................... 2.0
phi (+2.5) at was.... phi (+5)..................... 2.5
min (+6)at gb........ min (+5)..................... 1.0
cin (+4) at bal...... cin (+3)..................... 1.0
chi (-3) at oak...... chi (-4)..................... 1.0
dal (-1.5) at nyg.... dal (even) .................. 1.5
det (+1) at ari...... det (-10).................... 11.0
ind (-3.5) at sd..... ind (-6)..................... 2.5
sf (+10) at sea...... sf (+3)...................... 7.0
The games in red are those where there is more than a 3 point differential between me and the Vegas line. These are the picks I will concentrate on for betting the spread. In order of conviction:
1. det (+1) over ari - with an 11 point differential, this is easily the favorite of the week.
2.buf (-2.5) over mia - 3.5 differential, and the big 'mo' is going in opposite directions for miami and buffalo. love this pick.
3.cle (+9.5) over pit - Pit looks impressive, but i still think cleveland is underrated. As Matty pointed out, they are 6-1 vs the spread this year, and so far I don't think the spreads are giving them enough credit for the year they are having. Just for kicks, throw in the fact that Big Ben is hurting, they have a short week, and there may be a little lax attitude after blowing out division rival baltimore.
4.ind (-3.5) at sd - SD continues to wield some sort of gambling spell over the spreads, even though they aren't the team people think they are. Indy will rebound after losing a tough game to NE, and 3.5 points is not nearly enough respect for Indy.
The rest of the games are risky bets in my opinion.. they could go either way. I'll definitely be checking out the box before making my final picks.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Week 10 - Mad Capping the games
OK, so before the spreads come out of Vegas, here's how I would cap this week:
JAX +5 at TN
DEN +3 at KC
BUF -6 at MIA
CLE +4 at PIT
STL +10 at NO
ATL +2 at CAR
PHI +5 at WAS
MIN +5 at GB
CIN +3 at BAL
CHI +4 at OAK
DAL at NYG (EVEN)
DET -7 at ARI
IND -6 at SD
SF +3 at SEA
Matt, would you care to tell us what the box thinks the spreads should be? As usual, I will make my first draft of picks based on comparing the actual spreads to my lines.
TMC
JAX +5 at TN
DEN +3 at KC
BUF -6 at MIA
CLE +4 at PIT
STL +10 at NO
ATL +2 at CAR
PHI +5 at WAS
MIN +5 at GB
CIN +3 at BAL
CHI +4 at OAK
DAL at NYG (EVEN)
DET -7 at ARI
IND -6 at SD
SF +3 at SEA
Matt, would you care to tell us what the box thinks the spreads should be? As usual, I will make my first draft of picks based on comparing the actual spreads to my lines.
TMC
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Week 9 - Vegas Spreads vs Capper Spreads, Cage Match
so Vegas and I agreed on quite a few of the games: I've listed their lines below, with my predictions tabbed to the right:
VEGAS .....................................THE MAD CAPPER...............DIFF.
was (-3.5)at NYJ............. was (-8)............. 4.5
gb (+1.5) at KC.............. gb (-4).............. 5.5
ari (+3.5) at TB............. ari (+2)............. 1.5
car (+4) at TN............... car (+4)............. 0
sf (+2) at ATL............... sf (+3).............. 1.0
jax (+3) at NO............... jax (+4)............. 1.0
den (+3) at DET.............. den (+2)............. 1.0
cin (-1)at BUF............... cin (-5)............. 4.0
sd (-7) at MIN............... sd (-10)............. 3.0
sea (+1) at CLE.............. sea (-5)............. 6.0
ne (-5.5) at IND............. ------- ............. ---
hou (+3) at OAK.............. hou (+2)............. 1.0
dal (-3) at PHI.............. dal (-7)............. 4.0
bal (+9) at PIT.............. bal (+9)............. 0
The games in red are those where there is more than a 3 point differential between me and the Vegas line. These are the picks I will concentrate on for betting the spread. In order of conviction:
1. was (-3.5) at NYJ: I keep thinking the Jets are going to come around and be the team they were last year. And it just isnt' happening. Maybe Kellen Clemens sparks something in the second half of the year, but it won't be in his first start, and it won't be against a team as good as WAS, especially after they had their tails handed to them last week vs NE. I like Washington to win by atleast a touchdown.
2. sd (-7) at MIN: People have noticed that SD is back on track, right? And that MIN is struggling terribly? And the Chris Chambers trade hasn't gotten nearly the press it should have. Two years ago this would have been considered a blockbuster just short of the Randy Moss trade this year. Chambers may have been an idiot in MIA but he is the #1 receiver SD never had. Watch out. He's gonna open up that offense for his teammates, and make a few plays himself. This is one of the larger spreads this week, but I am confident that SD will roll over MIN like they should. I like SD by atleast 2 scores.
3. dal (-3) at PHI: I have a rule against betting games that involve teams with multiple personality disorder. PHI is absolutely one of these teams, so I'm breaking my own rule here. DAL is coming off their bye week, Romo got his contract, and PHI just isn't what it used to be. I like Dallas by two scores here.
4. gb (+1.5) at KC: I can't for the life of me figure out why week after week GB is either the 'dog or not forced to lay more points. They have continuously beaten the spread or upset their opponent. Is KC better than DEN? Is Arrowhead harder to play in than Mile High? Last week GB wins in OT with a +3 spread, this week they are at +1.5. Bet GB, they rarely fail.
5. cin (-1) at BUF: This one is a little more dificult. BUF is absolutely a team on the rise, and have beaten a lot of spreads this year, also. Trent Edwards' consistency seemed to spark the turnaround, however, and he's out, JP Losman is back in. I don't dislike JP, but when he's played, they've lost. Cincy... well they are like the Jets, any week it seems they could just snap out of it and hang 50 points on someone. I think this game ends up being close, but BUF can't pull it out.
6. sea (+1) at CLE: Another toughy. Picking against a hot CLE team at home seems risky. And it is. SEA has multiple personality disorder, too. Anything could happen here. In fact I just talked myself out of this game. I'm leaving it alone.
VEGAS .....................................THE MAD CAPPER...............DIFF.
was (-3.5)at NYJ............. was (-8)............. 4.5
gb (+1.5) at KC.............. gb (-4).............. 5.5
ari (+3.5) at TB............. ari (+2)............. 1.5
car (+4) at TN............... car (+4)............. 0
sf (+2) at ATL............... sf (+3).............. 1.0
jax (+3) at NO............... jax (+4)............. 1.0
den (+3) at DET.............. den (+2)............. 1.0
cin (-1)at BUF............... cin (-5)............. 4.0
sd (-7) at MIN............... sd (-10)............. 3.0
sea (+1) at CLE.............. sea (-5)............. 6.0
ne (-5.5) at IND............. ------- ............. ---
hou (+3) at OAK.............. hou (+2)............. 1.0
dal (-3) at PHI.............. dal (-7)............. 4.0
bal (+9) at PIT.............. bal (+9)............. 0
The games in red are those where there is more than a 3 point differential between me and the Vegas line. These are the picks I will concentrate on for betting the spread. In order of conviction:
1. was (-3.5) at NYJ: I keep thinking the Jets are going to come around and be the team they were last year. And it just isnt' happening. Maybe Kellen Clemens sparks something in the second half of the year, but it won't be in his first start, and it won't be against a team as good as WAS, especially after they had their tails handed to them last week vs NE. I like Washington to win by atleast a touchdown.
2. sd (-7) at MIN: People have noticed that SD is back on track, right? And that MIN is struggling terribly? And the Chris Chambers trade hasn't gotten nearly the press it should have. Two years ago this would have been considered a blockbuster just short of the Randy Moss trade this year. Chambers may have been an idiot in MIA but he is the #1 receiver SD never had. Watch out. He's gonna open up that offense for his teammates, and make a few plays himself. This is one of the larger spreads this week, but I am confident that SD will roll over MIN like they should. I like SD by atleast 2 scores.
3. dal (-3) at PHI: I have a rule against betting games that involve teams with multiple personality disorder. PHI is absolutely one of these teams, so I'm breaking my own rule here. DAL is coming off their bye week, Romo got his contract, and PHI just isn't what it used to be. I like Dallas by two scores here.
4. gb (+1.5) at KC: I can't for the life of me figure out why week after week GB is either the 'dog or not forced to lay more points. They have continuously beaten the spread or upset their opponent. Is KC better than DEN? Is Arrowhead harder to play in than Mile High? Last week GB wins in OT with a +3 spread, this week they are at +1.5. Bet GB, they rarely fail.
5. cin (-1) at BUF: This one is a little more dificult. BUF is absolutely a team on the rise, and have beaten a lot of spreads this year, also. Trent Edwards' consistency seemed to spark the turnaround, however, and he's out, JP Losman is back in. I don't dislike JP, but when he's played, they've lost. Cincy... well they are like the Jets, any week it seems they could just snap out of it and hang 50 points on someone. I think this game ends up being close, but BUF can't pull it out.
6. sea (+1) at CLE: Another toughy. Picking against a hot CLE team at home seems risky. And it is. SEA has multiple personality disorder, too. Anything could happen here. In fact I just talked myself out of this game. I'm leaving it alone.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Week 9 - Capper's PreCap - Vegas Has Nothing on Me
This is how I would handicap week 9:
WAS - 8 at NYJ
GB -4 at KC
ARI +2 at TB -2
CAR +4 at TN
SF +2 at ATL
JAX +4 at NO
DEN +2 at DET
CIN -5 at BUF
SD -10 at MIN
SEA -3 at CLE
HOU +2 at OAK
DAL -7 at PHI
BAL +9 vs PIT
What does the box say?
WAS - 8 at NYJ
GB -4 at KC
ARI +2 at TB -2
CAR +4 at TN
SF +2 at ATL
JAX +4 at NO
DEN +2 at DET
CIN -5 at BUF
SD -10 at MIN
SEA -3 at CLE
HOU +2 at OAK
DAL -7 at PHI
BAL +9 vs PIT
What does the box say?
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