Week 03 - Losses All Around

So, for some reason (I spent half the day trying to figure it out), my numbers were wrong. Not the win/loss, but the cash tracking. It turns out I got no action on a bet I thought there was action on, making my system very confused. Which means my system last week just looked wrong - I was actually up way more than I thought I was. And it also means this week was much worse than I thought, too. But it pretty much evened out, still up for the year, so here are the lovely results from Week 3's bets:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	TB	@ CHI	+3	26%	$24.80	W	$48.42
2	BAL	v. CLE	-2	25%	$23.75	W	$46.37
3	GB	v. DAL	+3	24%	$23.02	L	$0.00
4	ARI	@ WAS	+3	24%	$22.66	L	$0.00

and...

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	NE	v. MIA	-800	30%	$12.01	L	$0.00
2	ARI	@ WAS	+150	27%	$10.56	L	$0.00
3	TB	@ CHI	+135	24%	$9.28	W	$21.80
4	KC	@ ATL	+210	19%	$7.61	L	$0.00

For totals of...

Start Value
$264.75
Net of +/-
$0.00
Total Bank
$264.75
Bets Placed
$133.69
Bet Income
-$17.10
Ending Bank
$247.66
Total Return
-6.46%

Where the moneyline kept me afloat in week 1, it kicked my ass in week 3. NE blew up (could be a long year, but I like seeing lots of NE dogs coming up, which means lots of lopsided opportunity), ARI just got beat, and KC... well, they're KC. The spreads were close, especially considering ARI and GB could have almost gone either way (sort of). But I was up about 55 cents on spread bets this week.

The box is doing a nice job so far this year picking some of the least volatile games overall. And now that we're getting to week 4, we'll start to see game value play a bigger role (how a game's win or loss has eventual playoff implications, and how important it is to win that game). All in all, I can't complain, despite the mixed week.

Hopefully I'll have a bit more time this week to post, I just got a new job (woot!) so I'll take a while to settle into my rhythm. Suffice to say, betting will still play a big part.

Round up the Losses - Week 3

This week was Coyote Ugly, I'd chew my arm off to escape this week's results unnoticed. Even my last-second change to drop NE-6.5 in my 4th Teaser in favor of ATL+1 did nothing to save me. Only my low-stakes Den-230 bet won this week, here's how it went:

1st, what I did right:

1. TN+1 over HOU - TN is continuing to show they are a force in the AFC this year. I liked the Kerry Collins move, and they rolled over HOU as expected.

*Looking Forward: TN is 3-0 and probably will get bumped up by Vegas this week. Look out for unrealistic spreads.


2. PHI -3 over PIT - This game went as planned, with PHI just being better than PIT. I still like both these teams, but keep an eye on Rothlisberger's shoulder injury. I'm not even sure who their backup is...

*Looking Forward: Westbrook is out for a while, a big loss for PHI, but this team is very good. I'm not sure how Vegas will treat them since they are 2-1 but remember that loss came away at 3-0 Dallas.


3. DEN -230 - over NO - Turns out the spread was too high so my decision to stick with the MOneyline and use them as a +0.5 Teaser pick was well done. Both teams feature dynamic offenses with zero D.

*Looking Forward - NO dropped to 1-2 so look for them to be undervalued this week. They are goiong to win some games against teams that cannot keep up with their scoring ability. DEN is now 3-0 and is going to start getting high spreads that are going to be tough to justify.


4. ATL+1 over KC - This was a last-second entry to one of my Teasers based on KC's decision to start Tyler Thigpen at QB. ATL destroyed KC, who are looking very very bad.

*Looking Forward - I think I see the recipe here.... ATL has young talent that can outmatch weak opponents. This leads to them covering spreads in such games. Against stronger opponents their inexperience is a huge liabilty and they will get beaten badly.


4 good bets seems like a solid week, right? Well not when they're rolled up with these losers:

1. CAR +3.5 over MIN - This game looked so good to me last week, I am still in shock. Adrian Peterson has an injured hamstring, they are forced to bring in 37 yr old Frerotte due to poor QB play and CAR is healthy and on the rise, plus they get 3.5 points. MIN wins by 10, destroying not only the Moneyline bet (+170) and parlay, but the teaser with them at +9.5. This one killed me. I need to watch the highlights to see what happend here.

*Looking Forward: So is MIN the team everyone was droooling over in Preseason? I think it's safe to say we have no idea at this point. Their 0-2 start might have been an stumble, but I don't think we really know at this point. CAR is still a solid team worth taking a shot on.


2. CLE+2 over BAL - This was another death blow. I bet that they would snap out of their funk and return to last year's winning ways against a BAL team that on paper has very little to offer. Well I got punished for this wishful thinking in both my Moneyline (CLE +120) and Teaser (CLE+8) bets. It's amazing that low-scoring BAL was able to beat supposedly high-scoring CLE by more than 8 points, just amazing. I'm so depressed.

*Looking Forward: I think it's time to admit CLE is a loser this year. However, everyone else is thinking the same thing, so look for them to beat some spreads. BAL... I still know nothing about this team. They're 2-0, but with Flacco and Harbaugh in their frst year, will they keep it up? I'm guessing not, and hoping they get overrated by Vegas against some tougher teams.


3. DET+10 over SF - Yes, I praised JT O'Sullivan and than promptly bet against him... twice. My theory was that even if SF pulls out the victory, that DET's high-scoring offense would keep the game closer than 10 points. That was a great idea until they got rocked. How bad are the Lions exactly?

*Looking Forward: I was really hoping nobody but me would notice that the 49ers have looked very good so far. I'm guessing that the cat isn't in that bag anymore, so follow the spreads very carefuly. DET is a wildcard that will bust some spreads and never reward you. Only bet against them.


4. Buf +3.5 over OAK - I'm not sure what to do with Oakland. They busted up this spread, and really should have won this game.

*Looking Forward: I have a sneaking suspicion that this team is being held together with silly string by Kiffin.... and I just read he'll be fired today. Buf is 3-0, but cost me by not covering their spread against an apparently weak opponent. Bet them whenever they are 'dogs, but when is that going to happen exactly?

The SD -3 bet will be decided tonight, but my Teasers and Parlays are already busted, so it won't matter. Going 4-4 (so far) this week doesn't seem awful, but it hurts when those loses are divided up equally when you are parlay betting like me.

I have to stay the course, though. The only way to get back on top is to continue to bet big.

Weekly Bets = $40
Weekly Profit = (-$32)

Total Bets = $80
Total Profits = (-$22)
Total Return = -27.5%

Fightin' Words - Capper vs. Box

Ah Matty, finally we are back to the good ol' days when we actually disagree! Last week we both had about a 25% return, and not surprisingly we picked a lot of the same victors. This week the box has a lot of wtf picks, methinks.

1. TB +3 vs CHI isn't a terrible pick, but this game could easily go CHI's way. I'm pretty shocked this is the number 1 confidence pick.

2. BAL -2 vs CLE... I know CLE hasn't shown much this year, but it's only been two games and they lost to two superpowers, PIT and DAL. This team is slightly banged up, but still has all the key components in place that led to their surprising success last year. BAL was god-awful last year, and I don't see where their improvents are. I have CLE in a number of bets this week, so prepare to duel my friend.

3. GB +3 vs DAL... Much like your #1 pick, I have no problem picking GB, but this could easily go to DAL also. Like I commented yesterday, are those 3 points really gonna make a difference? If DAL wins they could just as easily win by 4, 7, or 10, so why not pick the Moneyline and take the bonus payout?

4. ARI +3 @ WAS... Another 'yeah it could happen' pick. But how much do we really know about either of these two teams? Very surprised the box likes this game so much, and I'm worried it is based on ARI's stomping of weak teams. Even if you wanted to throw your money away on this game, I'd say take the Moneyline and hope for the bonus payout, 'cause those 3 points seem pretty irrelevant to me.

As you may know... I love the Teaser bet. I find that I lose many parlays and straight-up bets by just a few points, not because I was way off, and historically i tend to hit a lot of my Teaser bets. Case and point for me is last week where i landed a 4-team teaser. All this is leading up to something... I give you my Week 3 bets:

Parlays:

CAR +3.5 @ MIN -- PHI -3 vs. PIT -- CLE +2 @ BAL

Teasers:

1. SD -3 vs. NYJ -- TN +1 vs. HOU -- DET +10 @ SF
2. SD-3 vs. NYJ -- CAR +9.5 @ MIN -- BUF -3.5 vs. OAK
3. DEN +0.5 vs. NO -- TN +1 vs. HOU -- CLE +8 @ BAL
4. ATL +1 vs. KC -- PHI +3 vs. PIT -- DET +10 @ SF

Moneyline:

1. DEN -230 vs NO
2. CAR +170 @ MIN
3. CLE +120 @ BAL

Suck it.

Week 03 - Box's Prelim Picks

Without further ado, here are the box's early picks. I'll be placing bets tomorrow with cheap juice:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %
1	TB	@ CHI	+3	26%
2	BAL	v. CLE	-2	25%
3	GB	v. DAL	+3	24%
4	ARI	@ WAS	+3	24%
5	KC	@ ATL	+5.5
6	NO	@ DEN	+5.5
7	OAK	@ BUF	+9.5
8	JAC	@ IND	+5.5
9	DET	@ SF	+4
10	HOU	@ TEN	+5
11	PHI	v. PIT	-3
12	CIN	@ NYG	+13.5
13	NYJ	@ SD	+9
14	CAR	@ MIN	+3.5
15	MIA	@ NE	+12.5
16	SEA	v. STL	-9.5

and ML:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %
1	NE	v. MIA	-800	30%
2	ARI	@ WAS	+150	27%
3	TB	@ CHI	+130	25%
4	KC	@ ATL	+190	18%
5	GB	v. DAL	+145
6	SEA	v. STL	-480
7	BAL	v. CLE	-140
8	PHI	v. PIT	-190
9	MIN	v. CAR	-200
10	TEN	v. HOU	-220
11	SF	v. DET	-200
12	DEN	v. NO	-230
13	IND	v. JAC	-230
14	SD	v. NYJ	-430
15	NYG	v. CIN	-850
16	BUF	v. OAK	-480

That's right, the box is so compelled by New England, it's willing to take a totally worthless payout. And the box highly evaluates payouts - not most other worthless payouts are at the bottom. I'm unclear as to why this is so convicted, but meh - who am I to argue.

I know I have abandoned the parlay for the most part, but I've decided to include a suggested Teaser every week based on the box's historical win percentages. Here's the first one:

TB +9, BAL +4, ARI +9, and KC +11.5. My number 1, 2, 4, and 5 picks have historically done really well. Have yet to figure out what the deal is with that number 3 pick, but it's worth running the numbers to see how I do with these picks. Teasers tend to be so bad in the payouts that you're better off betting each game individually, but when in Rome...

Like a Grizzly Duels a Silverback: Capper vs. Vegas Week 3!

Vegas threw some heavy punches with their spreads this week. I have to say I am impressed, they make it very difficult to bet on the top teams, and make it risky to bet on the underdogs. Well done, chaps, well done...

Chiefs(KansasCity)	+190		+5
Falcons(Atlanta)	-230		-5
- I capped this game at ATL -1, so in theory I should go with KC, but how confident am I that KC stays within 2 field goals? Not at all. By the way Thigpen something or other is the new QB for KC. I'm absolutely staying away from this game. MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Raiders(Oakland)	+380		+9.5
Bills(Buffalo)	-480		-9.5
- I capped this game at Buf -7, so once again if I were to stick to my guns I'd have to pick the underdog. This is absolutely what I warned about yesterday - Vegas is over-reacting with big spreads to BUF's new-found success. I am confident BUF wins this game, so I would take them in a teaser, but not not straight-up giving up 9.5 points: MadCapper's Pick: BUF +3.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Texans(Houston)	+180		+5
Titans(Tennessee)	-220		-5
- I was giving TN 4 points, so I am pretty much in agreement with Vegas here. HOU is still sort of an unknown since Ike forced a bye last week, but TN has really shown it is tough on defense and can run the ball effectively. I like them to win at home, once again I say Teaser: MadCapper's Pick: TN +1 (6-point Teaser)) Confidence Level: 90%
Bengals(Cincinnati)	+625		+13.5
Giants(NewYork)	-850		-13.5
- Everyone is counting on this being a blowout, and the spread reflects this. Will NYG will by 13? 14? 10? 20? Predicting margins like this is unhealthy, so I say stay away. MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Cardinals(Arizona)	+150		+3 (-105)
Redskins(Washington)	-170		-3 (-115)
- I hit the nail on the head here with WAS -3. This is a risky game to me, despite ARI's "consistency" beating very weak teams to go 2-0. I'd say go with a Moneyline +150 wager and try to catch the bonus money, or swing a Teaser to make it ARI +9: MadCapper's Pick: ARI +9 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 60%
Dolphins(Miami)	+600		+12.5
Patriots(NewEngland)	-800		-12.5
- Wow! What difference a week makes, eh? NE wins a game against lowly KC, and MIA gets blown out by a high-powered offense and suddenly NE is a huge favorite? I absolutely think NE wins this game, but continues with their circa 2001 field position and ball control game plan. Can they win by 13? Sure! Is it a safe bet? Hell no... The Moneyline at -800 is worthless, and a Teaser only gets you down to -6.5: MadCapper's Pick: NE -6.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 60%
Buccaneers(TampaBay)	+130		+3
Bears(Chicago)	-150		-3
- Again Vegas and I slap five and give it at CHI -3. The box seems to love TB as an upset pick here, but I don't think so. TB lost to a suspect NO, beat a weak ATL and their starting QB is out injured. CHI upset Indy and hung tight with CAR to the end. I like CHI as a Moneyline pick, here, trading 3 points for a 2:3 payout: MadCapper's Pick: CHI -150 Confidence Level: 70%
Panthers(Carolina)	+170		+3.5
Vikings(Minnesota)	-200		-3.5
- Why is MIN still favored after going 0-2 and benching their starting QB you ask? NO CLUE! This is one of my picks of the week, I cap this at CAR -2, so I feel like I'm getting bonus money on the Moneyline, plus 5.5 more points than I need. Hell, I might even do a teaser to make it CAR +9.5, too! Do you really think MIN blows CAR out? MadCapper's Pick: CAR +3.5, CAR +170, CAR +9.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Rams(StLouis)	+380		+9.5
Seahawks(Seattle)	-480		-9.5
- eck. In other news, I tried a Bulgarian wine last night ("No Man's Land"). Apparently the vines grew into maturity along the Iron Curtain during the Cold War. Definitely drinkable, but tasted as cheap as it was ($4.99). MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Lions(Detroit)	+170		+4
49ers(SanFrancisco)	-200		-4
- Whoa ho ho.... Apparently someone else WAS watching JT O'Sullivan last week. As I mentioned yesterday, I am now a fan of Martz's new student, but I really didn't expect to see SF favored, let alone by so many. What jumps out at me is a Teaser gives DET +10. If SF wins this game, they are going to have to outgun Kitna, C. Johnson, and R. Williams. I don't see them winning by that many, if at all: MadCapper's Pick: DET +10 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 90%
Saints(NewOrleans)	+190		+5.5
Broncos(Denver)	-230		-5.5
- I really like DEN at home this week. I may even be willing to pay the terrible DEN -230 Moneyline. A teaser makes it basically straight up: MadCapper's Pick: DEN -230, DEN +0.5 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 80%
Steelers(Pittsburgh)	+165		+3 (+105)
Eagles(Philadelphia)	-190		-3 (-125)
- I like Philly by 6, so I like them in all sorts of bets this week: MadCapper's Pick: PHI -3, PHI -190, PHI+3 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 70%
Jaguars(Jacksonville)	+190		+5.5
Colts(Indianapolis)	-230		-5.5
- JAX traditionally matches up well with IND, so it's tempting to go with them and the points... but nah, too risky: MadCapper's Pick: None. Confidence Level: None.
Browns(Cleveland)	+120		+2
Ravens(Baltimore)	-140		-2
- This is my 2nd upside-down game of the week. I MadCap this game at CLE -2, so I'm looking at the Moneyline bonus payouts, the Teaser, and maybe in a parlay with the 2 points: MadCapper's Pick: CLE +120, CLE +2, CLE +8 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 70%
Cowboys(Dallas)	-165		-3 (-120)
Packers(GreenBay)	+145		+3 (even)
- GB finally got some respect this week. This is exactly like last week's game vs. PHI.... only DAL is not at home, but at Lambeau. Predicting the score of this game is nearly impossible, so I'd say if you're gonna bet it, nail the Moneyline with GB and hope for the bonus payout: MadCapper's Pick: GB+145 Confidence Level: 60% New York Jets +335 +9 San Diego Chargers -430 -9 - Wow I am having some technical difficulties with the formatting, but the point is SD definitely wins this game. The SD-3 Teaser is also a nice option here.
MadCapper's Pick: SD -3 (6-point Teaser) Confidence Level: 80%

Week 03 - Rank This, Byatch

So this is the first week I have full volatility and game value ranks along with performance ranks. Game value is only minorly important, so I've excluded it for the time being. In terms of betting, volatility is a bigger issue earlier in the season, and I was surprised with what I saw. Note that the highest ranked teams are the MOST CONSISTENT, with lower ranks as LESS CONSISTENT.

Also, remember that these ranks are about the bet, not the team. No whining about "oh, my team is ranked so poorly and they're good... waaaah." Sometimes the best teams are bad bets, since Vegas gives them big spreads in reaction to public perception. GB, as the Capper so adeptly pointed out, is for some reason getting weak spreads and just wrecking them. Even this week, they are discounted against a darling Dallas team. TB is in the same boat, having beat the spread two weeks in a row, but still getting the shaft on spreads. So these ranks put in perspective what teams make sense to bet in a macro league sense.

But first, the overall ranks:

Power Ranks		▲▼
1	GB	▲1
2	DAL	▲4
3	ARI	▲13
4	TB	▲3
5	BAL	▲6
6	CHI	▲12
7	CLE	▲19
8	WAS	▲16
9	DEN	▲1
10	PHI	▼9
11	NO	▲6
12	IND	▼4
13	BUF	▲8
14	KC	▲11
15	TEN	▲4
16	SD	▼12
17	MIN	▼12
18	NYG	▼6
19	JAC	▼6
20	OAK	▲11
21	CAR	▼6
22	HOU
23	PIT	▼14
24	NYJ	▼4
25	NE	▼22
26	DET	▲2
27	SF	▲2
28	ATL	▲2
29	CIN	▼6
30	MIA	▼3
31	SEA	▼17
32	STL
* Excludes BYE week teams!

Big surprises? Absolutely. What's it mean? DON'T BET ON THE BOTTOM QUARTER if you can help it. Sometimes you can't. But check out the meteoric plummet from Seattle, down 17 spots. Worse than KC, you're asking? This week, yes. They are giving 9 points to a weak St. Louis team as opposed to KC, who's getting 5 from a volatile Atlanta team. By the box's standard, expect better performance out of KC, as hard as that is to believe, against this week's spreads.

Here are the volatility, it'll help put it in some context:

Rank	Vol
1	PHI
2	DEN
3	MIA
4	CAR
5	NO
6	MIN
7	CLE
8	KC
9	BAL
10	CIN
11	ARI
12	DET
13	CHI
14	TB
15	DAL
16	TEN
17	NYJ
18	BUF
19	SD
20	NE
21	OAK
22	HOU
23	GB
24	IND
25	SF
26	NYG
27	JAC
28	PIT
29	ATL
30	WAS
31	SEA
32	STL
* Excludes BYE week teams!

Now it makes sense why KC is valued above Seattle overall - despite Seattle being a better team, they are totally chaotically volatile over the last 2 weeks. Now, over time, these ranks get honed much better, but for now, it's unclear which Seattle will show up - able to perform, or totally incompetent. KC at least is predictably terrible, which in gambling, is much better than being totally unpredictable.

I'm waiting for Friday to make my bets with the cheap juice, but tomorrow I'll give the preliminary picks. Not a ton of action over the last few days, very few line moves of note, so could be a good week for betting. Let the games begin!