Week 13 - Woot for Box's Moderate Winnings!

Week 13 is in the books, and thanks to the Raven's impressive performance, it was mildly profitable! Here are the results:

Results for Week 13

Spread: GB +7 (-110) v. DAL - $8.99 wins $0.00

Spread: JAC +6.5 (-110) v. IND - $11.83 wins $22.58

Spread: CLE +1 (-115) v. ARI - $10.97 wins $0.00

Spread: NYG -1.5 (-115) v. CHI - $8.71 wins $16.28

Spread: BAL +20.5 (-110) v. NE - $9.50 wins $18.14

Results for Week 13
Bet Totals:	$50.00
Potential Winnings:	$44.67
Payouts:	$57.00
Actual Profit:	$7.00
%s: Week 13	14.00%

Not much of a profit, but greater than zero is better than the alternative! I'm hoping this week's games are a little better - I've started working with Mark Myers of ChanceBot.com, who's game impact algorithms may be useful in picking moneyline games. We haven't run the correlations yet, but it may lead to something. Also, I've been reading a lot of Brian Burke's NFL Stats, which is really impressive stuff. I may try to incorporate his stuff into another module for Moneyline picking - you can't argue with his overall results.

The Good:

Jacksonville, the NY Giants, and Baltimore

Wha??? Baltimore???? Despite almost having an aneurysm waiting for the real Patriots to show up, Baltimore's defense looked GOOD. This is why I am talking to Mark Myers - the Pats are en route to a perfect season (I happen to be pessimistic about their chances), but along the way, the games have pretty low impact on their playoff picture. It means that as long as they are unbeaten, EVERY team they play will bring their A game, since every game is pretty inconsequential. Now it's about pride. Last night, Kyle Boller looked like Dan Marino right up until Kyle Boller showed up with 8 minutes to go and threw a terrible pick to James Sanders. The same thing happened against the Eagles - A.J. Feeley looked amazing, picking apart the Pats, right up until he started playing like A.J. Feeley with 10 minutes left to go. This is the Pats strength. They are not afraid to lose the entire game and win on the scoreboard. Next week, I expect the exact opposite to happen. The Pats take on Pittsburgh, a team with a long history of annoying the crap out of Pats players and fans. While it's hard to be in the locker ream amping yourself up for your "big game" against the terrible terrible Ravens, it will NOT be hard to want to knock the smug smile off of Big Ben's "I'm overrated" face.

Jacksonville needs to remember that the Colts are just a football team. They are not Kryptonite. They are not mystical ninjas from Wudan mountain. Jack Del Rio has yet to get the memo about the weakness in the Death Star. David Garrard was almost perfect (almost), they ran the ball well, and they held the ball longer, and still fell just short. Short enough to cover. Jacksonville vs. Indy is like printing money - the spread is always big, the game is always close, and Indy always wins.

The Giants remembered that they want to go to the playoffs this week. If the Giants won the Super Bowl, I still think Tom Coughlin should be fired. I have to run the numbers, but I think there's a one to one correlation between morons and losing. Norv, Herm, Tom... you guys have a corner on the market.

The Bad:

Cleveland, GB, Officials

Worst. Officiating. Ever. The crew that ran the Green Bay/Dallas game were the same that ran the Pats/Colts game. Does anyone remember the multiple PI calls against Hobbs and Randy Moss? Yeah. Terrible. It's time for pass interference, often a 30+ yard penalty that results in points, to be reviewable. It's time, NFL. It's time.

I'm back up for the year, and I feel good going into next week! Woot!

Box Results - through Week 13
Initial $s:	$139.16
Bet Totals:	$563.91
Potential Winnings:	$987.66
Payouts:	$575.46
Actual Profit:	$11.55
Gain/Loss	8.30%

Week 13 - 2000% return - A gambler's perspective

Let me just say, from a gambler's mentality, the key to your 2000% return is having the balls to continue to raise your ante each week. It's completely the way to do it, and if this works out going forward, I want in on the IPO.

Keep in mind there are going to be cold streaks, and the gambling discipline comes during the bad times. You can't get cold and then reduce your ante, because anything you win will only chip away at your losses. This is precisely what I did this year. I was betting $50/week when I was losing, and the past 4 weeks I've been winning but only betting $25/week, giving me no chance to recoup my losses. I'm doing this to avoid going bankrupt prior to the end of the season, which will work. But it's terrible gambling technique.

Week 13 - Half Point Revenge! (Recap)

Week 13 started with a box-Capper lovefest, and it has ended the same. Lots of winners this week, and would have swept if CLE hadn't been screwed by the refs (check out the last second pass to Winslow where they did not call him pushed out of bounds, despite TWO defenders preventing him from landing in bounds). My only regret? I didn't go all in like i was planning on, before I wussed out. Anyways, here's how it panned out:

The Good:
1. NYG -1.5 vs CHI: This was the first game I thought was going to screw me. Manning had yet another terrible day, and it seemed like Good Rex showed up. In the final minutes, the G-Men were down by 2, and driving down the field. A big completion gets them within field goal range, and past the 2 minute warning. Your humble narrator is stewing at his girlfriends apartment, trying not to let on that I've blown more money on gambling instead of on xmas presents. I'm cursing the damn half-point spread when WHAT? They throw a quick slant down to the 2 yd line... Could they be going for the Touchdown? 1st and goal and Droughs run it in untouched! The Giants go up by 6, hold on and cover the spread. Unbelievable. First time that's happened all year. +$4.35 profit.

2. JAX +6.5 vs IND: I kept watching the score flash across the screen and it seemed like Indy was up by 14 the whole time. This of course meant that JAX was going to have to try to out-gun Indy, which I figured would lead to an even bigger Indy victory. Very distressing. Plus, I'm once again cursing the half-point as a 14 point deficit is terrible if your betting on a +6.5 spread, since the Jags are gonna have to score two TDs to tie, and field goals are useless... so the game might as well be a pick-em. I didn't see the end of the game, but somehow the final score was 28-25! Did JAX actually kick a useless field goal to go down by 11, then score a TD and convert the 2-point conversion? All to beat the half-point spread? Yes! +4.55 profit.

3. 4-Team Teaser!
a) CLE +7 vs. ARI: As I mentioned above, CLE got hosed by the final call of the game. Winslow was clearly pushed out of the endzone. Didn't affect my teaser, though, since the final margin was 6 points. I think this is a mulligan game for CLE... They are still a tough team, but yesterday they turned the ball over stupidly 3 times.
b) TB +9 vs NO: Ever since week 2, I've been on the Tampa bandwagon, and they came through against unreliable NO this week, even without Garcia (which made me nervous). Was that Luke McCown leading them to almost 30 points? unreal.
c) NYJ +7 vs MIA: I still can't believe MIA was favored in this game. It confused me so much I started to believe it was some Vegas trick, a trap game to lure people into betting for the Jets... some trick, the final score was 40-13. I don't think I'd bet the Jets against anyone except MIA, so I'm pretty psyched to walk away with this one.
d) HOU +9.5 vs TN: Is it me or does Shaub get injured on every play? The guy needs to take the rest of the year off and get healed. The season is done anyways. I thought this game would be a lot closer, but thankfully TN was favored by 3.5, bumping my teaser spread to 9.5, just enough to cover the 8 point differential.
+$15.00 profit.

The Bad: Only CLE didn't win this week. Stupid Refs...

Weekly Total: +$18.90

Week 13 - What Good Is Instant Replay When It Still Costs You Games?

Did anyone see that catch at the end of the Cleveland game? Or better yet, did anyone catch and get pushed out of bounds the Cleveland game?

I have a small wager on tonight's game, which I assume is money well thrown away (betting against the Pats), but it would have been a small profit week if not for the last call of the Cleveland game. Romeo Crennel should stick a clipboard up the ass of the NFL this week.

I'll have full results tabled tomorrow, but it's looking like a down week. In this current model, it would be the second down week of the year. I back tested this model through the 2006 season assuming I bet ONLY the top 5 teams, and after Week 1, I bet a max of 33% of my bankroll (with a cap at $200 for the week not including the double down bets), and the results are just silly. This is a hypothetical, but I'm going to stop tweaking the system for a bit and let it ride. Based on these results, it would be hard to argue with my logic.

		Running	Dollars	Dollars	Week
	Buy In	Balance	Bet	Paid Out	Performance
2006	$100.00	$100.00	$0.00	$0.00
Week 1		$100.00	$40.00	$32.81	-17.98%
Week 2		$92.81	$30.63	$36.09	17.85%
Week 3		$98.27	$39.13	$74.70	90.91%
Week 4		$133.85	$58.54	$64.35	9.93%
Week 5		$139.66	$59.83	$63.44	6.03%
Week 6		$143.26	$70.86	$135.28	90.91%
Week 7		$207.68	$68.53	$69.75	1.77%
Week 8		$208.90	$68.94	$82.41	19.55%
Week 9		$222.38	$73.38	$113.84	55.13%
Week 10		$262.83	$115.82	$221.11	90.91%
Week 11		$368.12	$121.48	$191.52	57.66%
Week 12		$438.16	$200.22	$328.19	63.92%
Week 13		$566.14	$215.74	$411.87	90.91%
Week 14		$762.26	$280.98	$242.67	-13.63%
Week 15		$723.96	$200.00	$143.74	-28.13%
Week 16		$667.70	$236.09	$375.95	59.24%
Week 17		$807.57	$225.80	$431.07	90.91%
2007		$1,012.84	$0.00	$0.00
Week 1		$1,012.84	$200.00	$311.11	55.56%
Week 2		$1,123.95	$200.00	$315.54	57.77%
Week 3		$1,239.49	$271.98	$441.44	62.31%
Week 4		$1,408.95	$200.00	$392.24	96.12%
Week 5		$1,601.19	$227.21	$168.97	-25.63%
Week 6		$1,542.94	$224.83	$254.26	13.09%
Week 7		$1,572.38	$200.00	$306.63	53.32%
Week 8		$1,679.01	$226.28	$334.05	47.63%
Week 9		$1,786.78	$200.00	$378.43	89.21%
Week 10		$1,965.21	$276.92	$532.24	92.20%
Week 11		$2,220.53	$242.30	$326.14	34.60%
Week 12		$2,304.37	$247.19	$327.21	32.37%
Week 13		$2,384.39	$200.00	$157.33	-21.34%

Ridiculous? Yes, ridiculous. 5 down weeks (if I include this week as a down week despite still having money on tonight), but 16 weeks of greater than 50% returns. What exactly am I tweaking??? I could have bought in for $100 and have a $2300 bankroll right now! That more than a 2000% RETURN! Damn. Of course, the system is always in flux, so this is strictly hypothetical. Even still, it gives me more hope. If I continue to ignore parlays and teasers and stay with the best odds, I have a good chance of continuing on this pace. If I continue on this pace, I may stop investing in my IRA and start investing in the BOX.

Week 13 - Final Picks

For a moment there, i was gonna go all in with my picks, i loved them so much. but hey, there are still 5 weeks left before the playoffs, and i'd like to be around. Note the absence of a straight parlay this week, Excelius must be rubbing off on me.

Here are my finals.

Straight Bets:
CLE +1 vs ARI
NYG -1.5 vs CHI
JAX -6.5 vs IND

6-Point Teaser:
[CLE+7 vs ARI-- TB+9 vs NO -- NYJ +7 vs MIA -- HOU+9.5 vs TEN]

Week 13 - Capper and Box lovefest - Preliminary picks

Well well, Excelius, we have another week where we actually agree! Last time it worked well for me, and you got hosed. Let's hope for more of the same. I mean different. Possibly same...

Because my actual job took up too much time this week, I wasn't able to give you the Vegas vs Capper table. However, these are the games that I love this week, and unbelievably the box agrees, mostly. Must be my birthday.


1. CLE +1 v. ARI - One of atleast 3 games where Vegas favored the opposite team I did? Can this be true? and it's the box's #1 pick! This definitely must be my birthday. I said to bet the house if CLE is favored by less than 3 points... so i suppose it's good I'm a renter. This would be my double-down pick, if i was so inclined, though.

2. NYG (-1.5) at CHI - Love seeing Chicago get credit for their special teams' insanity last week. No way they get 3 touchdowns from special teams each week. This game might just be the case study for my Wave Theory. I had capped this game at NYG (-6), so I feel like I'm playing with 4.5 free points.

3. DET +3 v. MIN - I hate betting against the Minnesota Spreadbusters, but this is almost too good to be true. MIN gets a huge upset against the G-Men, but Manning gift-wrapped 21 points for them. MIN still has no offense, an ineffective QB and no Peterson. My own laws state not to bet on DET (multiple personality reasons) and against MIN (spreadbusters)... do I have the discipline? I don't think i'll know til Saturday.

4. JAC +7 v. IND - Indy is still banged up, and JAX is rolling. This should be a close game, so the 7 points seems excessive. The box likes it at #5, so that's even more encouragement

5. TB +3 v. NO Away - The box shocked me with this one. The box loooves NO. Every week I can't believe you bet NO. Over and over again. Saints Saints Saints.... Well, welcome to the dark side, my friend. I actually have TB favored in this game (-2), so this is another potential moneyline pick. I love erasing the juice.

6. HOU +3.5 v. TEN - As Excelius has pointed out, TN has been in a slide and it may be that it should have been expected. HOU is still a scary team to me with AJ and MS, so i liked this to be a game they could pull out. The spread might be too low for me to take a shot, though.

7. OAK +3 v. DEN - This is one we disagree on. OAK seems ranked suspiciously high in your financials (we need a better name for this list), but maybe they are better than common knowledge suggests? Or maybe Den is an wave theory pick... They are good enough to beat PIT , KC and TN. But recently they've barely lost big to DET, then barely to GB (overtime), and barely to CHI (despite giving up 3 tds on special teams). I dunno, i'll probably stay away from this one, since we agree on so many others.

8. NYJ +1 v. MIA - I just figured NYJ are a little better, and pretty weird that they're the 'dog. As you can see my conviction basically matches the box (#16), so we'll see if i need an extra pick to make my parlays work.

9. BUF +5.5 v. WAS - You have to figure WAS is distracted this week, plus they now have to start their backup safety. Unfortunately I heard they benched JP again, and haven't heard if Lynch is healed. You know the more I write this, the more I think I'm staying away from this game. Too many variables.

Week 13 - Box's (Semi)Final Bets

The (semi)final bets are in. I haven't decided if I'm adding in a few moneyline bets this week, so I'll wait until Friday or Saturday to make those bets. Right now, I decided to stay conservative and bet my top 5 spread picks only. I will NOT bet a parlay or teaser this week... well, maybe a teaser...

Here are the bets so far:

Bets for Week 13

Spread: GB +7 (-110) v. DAL - $8.99 to win $8.17

Spread: JAC +6.5 (-110) v. IND - $11.83 to win $10.75

Spread: CLE +1 (-115) v. ARI - $10.97 to win $9.54

Spread: NYG -1.5 (-115) v. CHI - $8.71 to win $7.57

Spread: BAL +20.5 (-110) v. NE - $9.50 to win $8.64

Results for Week 13
Bet Totals:	$50.00
Potential Winnings:	$44.67

Week 13 - Best Bets and Your Mom

Your Mom called - she said to throw your money away today. You'll see why with this week's top 5:

The Rankings - Spread
THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. JAC +6.5 v. IND Away	44.0
2. CLE +1 v. ARI Away	42.0
3. BAL +20.5 v. NE @Home	44.0
4. GB +7 v. DAL Away - Bet Soon	46.5
5. NYG -1.5 v. CHI Away	42.0

This is only the second week of the year that the Box has decided winning is a terrible thing. Baltimore?? NOOOOOOO!!!

After a close game last week, Tom Brady will be out for blood. And I heard he hates creepy black birds, too. So when Baltimore comes to town next Monday with a shaky Kyle Boller, no offensive firepower, and a mediocre defense; could we be back to 30 point drubbings? Well, I'll find out firsthand when I lose money on the game... sigh...

I like the Jacksonville pick, but I liked it better early this week when it was +7 and pushable. I like the GB pick, it's pushable and GB is on a roll. But my favorite pick is the NYG pick. The G-Men will be itching to take out that last loss on someone. And I have a feeling Tom Coughlin will shove Brandon Jacobs right up the Bears a-hole, keeping in a galaxy far far away from "The Other Manning". It must suck to be the red headed stepchild of the Manning family.

With the Wednesday moneylines out, here are the Box's pick ranks:

The Rankings - Moneyline
THE PICKS
* considers lay in pick order
1. SD -260 v. KC @Home x2!
2. NO -180 v. TB Away
3. PHI -190 v. SEA Away
4. CAR -150 v. SF Away
5. TEN -210 v. HOU Away
6. WAS -250 v. BUF Away
7. DEN -200 v. OAK @Home
8. MIN -190 v. DET Away
9. IND -300 v. JAC Away
10. DAL -280 v. GB Away
11. PIT -300 v. CIN Away

Not a lot of ridiculous lays this week, which I like. 5 off games makes the picking easier, since they've already narrowed the focus. I feel like the Jets/Dolphins game being OFF and Miami being -1 indicates a trap game. The same is true of the Cleveland/Arizona game. That's a gut feeling, but if the spread is basically a pick 'em, why make the moneyline off? Of course, the CLE game is one of the top 5 this week, so I'm prepared to throw money away there, too.

I love the SD pick, though. Herm Edwards is imploding, and the team is playing accordingly. In this year's rematch of the Super Terrible Coaching Bowl, SD will be out for blood I think. The lay is low, the odds are good, and the box says to double it.

Last tidbit for the afternoon, a look at my first draft of a teaser module. I will not be betting this, but any feedback on methodology could be useful here. Note that "Two Score" means a 6 point teaser makes it at least a two score game, and "Pushable" means the spread becomes pushable. This may be a bad teaser week, but it highlights a preliminary top group as picked by the Box:

The Teaser - Playlist
		Games:	4
Pick	Spread	Status	Rank
GB	13.0	Two Score	5
SEA	9.0
BUF	11.5	Two Score	3
DET	9.5
SF	9.0
ATL	9.5
JAC	12.5	Two Score	7
NYJ	7.0	Pushable	4
HOU	9.5
KC	11.5	Two Score	8
OAK	9.5
CLE	7.0	Pushable	6
TB	9.0
NYG	4.5
CIN	13.0	Two Score	1
BAL	26.5	Two Score	2

I went with a 4 game teaser for example purposes, but pick ranks are on the right. I hate this module right now, ideas are welcome. Time to place my bets!

Week 13 - Wall Street Ranks

So the power ranks are in, and I added a new feature - the overall rank. It's a combination of Sharpe and Alpha total convictions (Beta is a component of Alpha, and Sharpe has its own risk adjustment, so adding Beta into the mix would be redundant). I have also further refined the Sharpe rank to account only for points scored ABOVE the spread. By doing this, I'm actually ranking a team's consistent ability to bust a spread, and hopefully making it far more useful for parlays in the future. The alpha and beta are very much the same, but I've slightly tweaked how they are scaled for ranking purposes, so there may be a minor rank change from last week's post. This has had little effect on the rankings, but has improved the double bet performance.

Here are the financials - if you want to see any specific game breakdowns this week, let me know, and I can post it:

	Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Team	Rank	Rank	Rank
ARI	15	13	18
ATL	28	32	31
BAL	30	19	9
BUF	23	30	19
CAR	24	12	5
CHI	19	28	32
CIN	18	5	7
CLE	12	7	26
DAL	3	1	1
DEN	25	25	16
DET	14	6	4
GB	4	11	21
HOU	17	10	15
IND	2	3	3
JAC	6	27	27
KC	26	31	30
MIA	32	17	24
MIN	11	16	10
NE	1	2	12
NO	16	24	28
NYG	13	4	2
NYJ	31	14	20
OAK	21	9	11
PHI	10	22	25
PIT	5	8	6
SD	9	18	29
SEA	7	15	13
SF	29	23	8
STL	27	29	14
TB	8	26	23
TEN	22	21	22
WAS	20	20	17

A lot of the same from last week, but I did note a trend that most of the press has given a lot of attention. Tennessee's fall from grace has been nothing if not meteoric, and it has largely been attributed to the absence of Albert Haynesworth. But is it really just one man that makes the difference?

If I look back in the rankings, we see the following:

		Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Week 8	TEN	4	20	22
Week 9	TEN	5	20	21
Week 10	TEN	5	20	22
Week 11	TEN	10	20	22
Week 12	TEN	16	21	22
Week 13	TEN	22	21	22

The most obvious drop is in the Sharpe, and boy does it drop. Nearly 20 spots in 3 weeks. But the alpha and beta exactly the same since week 8. So what does that tell us?

Well, since Sharpe measures point output over the spread adjusted for risk, it's clear they can't score, not that they can't play defense. The loss of Haynesworth has been a problem, but what it's highlighted is the poor play of Vince Young and the Titan offense more than anything else. Teams are stacking 8 in the box and making Young beat them with his arm, something he has yet to prove he can really do, especially with this young receiver core. The real Titans show up in the alpha and beta ranks, which take into account statistics that correct for league averages as well as point output. They have consistently ranked in the bottom half of the league. So, will the real Titans please stand up? The Box will be hard pressed to take them as favorites for the rest of the year, with or without Haynesworth.

Here are the overall financial rankings, the new segment. This should closely compare with most of the power rankings out there, with a few exceptions.

Financial
Overall Rank
1	NE
2	DAL
3	IND
4	PIT
5	GB	▲1
6	NYG	▼1
7	DET
8	CLE
9	CIN
10	SEA	▲1
11	OAK	▲1
12	HOU	▼2
13	SD	▲2
14	MIN	▲3
15	ARI	▼2
16	PHI
17	CAR	▼3
18	TB
19	JAC	▲2
20	NO	▲2
21	WAS	▼1
22	TEN	▼3
23	CHI	▲3
24	DEN	▲1
25	NYJ	▼2
26	BAL	▼2
27	SF	▲3
28	BUF	▼1
29	MIA	▼1
30	STL	▼1
31	KC
32	ATL

The arrows indicate a change from last week's overall rank. Big movers are Tennessee, SF, Chicago, Carolina, and Minnesota. Upward motion from Chicago, SF, and Minnesota reflect the great play and wins in Week 12, while the drop in Tennessee (see above) and Carolina reflect losses. The triumphant return of Steve Smith couldn't even outshadow the QB troubles for the Panthers.

Biggest surprise: Jacksonville at 19 despite it's record. Jacksonville has a long history of playing up or down to competition. Their consistency, especially against their statistical expectations, is terrible. It may be brought down mostly by the residual effects of the 41-24 drubbing New Orleans gave them a few weeks ago, but they currently sit at number 19. As I get deeper into the stats, maybe I'll get a specific explanation for that posted here this week.

Week 13 - Madder Capping

Gotta get even this week. So here's how I see the games going down:

GB at DAL - The NFC's version of Colts/Pats. Very even matched, but I'll give Dallas the edge in their house. GB -4.

BUF at WAS- Terrible news about Sean Taylor. How will the team respond? BUF had been playing good ball until they ran into the Pats and Jaguars, now they've benched Losman again and Marshawn has been hurt for 3 weeks now. I'll take an emotional WAS-2.

DET at MIN- DET's playing for their playoff lives, and gets a break in their brutal 2nd half schedule in a trip to Minnesota. Hey! Minnesota has astro-turf too! Peterson is still out, and no way MIN duplicates it's lucky defensive touchdowns. Let me say one last thing... I said it last week, I'll saying again. I hate betting against MIN, they are spread busters. DET -4.

HOU at TEN- Man oh man I want to favor HOU. TEN seems to be in a free-fall, but this is still supposed to be that overachieving team that toughed their way to the playoffs.... TEN is at home settles it. TN -1.

JAX at IND- JAX seems to be rolling, and they know how to play the colts. Rumor has it Joseph Addai could be back, though. Plus this is still Indy's division until someone takes it from them. IND -4.

NYJ at MIA- Two lowly AFC East times bump into each other this week. MIA is down to it's 3rd string QB, 3rd string RB and traded its #1 WR. There is no reason to pick them. Ever. NYJ -2.

SD at KC- KC was my madcapping darling for a few weeks there... until they kicked me in the balls 3 weeks in a row. Now they are my enemy. I hate cheering for LaDanian Whiningson but, what can you do? SD-6.

SEA at PHI- Philly showed some serious moxy against NE last week. SEA is definitely a Multiple Personality team. I'll give it to the home team again. PHI -3.

SF at CAR- Stinker of the week! I have no reason to pick either team. None. So let's go with SF on a 2-win streak, shall we? SF-1.

CLE at ARI- I really thought the wave theory would have caught up with the brownies by now, but they continue to be under-capped. If they are favored by less than 3 here, bet the house on it. CLE -4.

DEN at OAK- DEN would be riding a wave right now if Shannahan hadn't stubbornly kicked to Frickin' Hester last week. Fortunately OAK has nobody of that ilk on its team, so I like DEN in a landslide. DEN-5.

TB at NO- TB is the 3rd best team in the NFC right now. How 'bout that? NO is a spoiler team that will beat spreads when you least expect it. Not this time, though. TB-2.

NYG at CHI- Last week was a mulligan. For both teams. No way CHI gets the free points it got last week, and no way NYG gives away the free points again. NYG -6.

CIN at PIT- You know... PIT is starting to make me nervous. They lose to the Jets, and squeak past MIA. And bullcrap to you who says the field was messy. Isn't that supposed to be an advantage to the running-game steelers? In any case, I can't in good conscience bet the Bengals at 3-river. PIT-6.

NE at BAL- So will the spreads calm down a little bit this week? They probably should, but I am thinking this game might be a shutout 19-0. NE-19.

Week 13 - Wall Street Says Bet the Browns

So the early lines are out (the STL line is currently OFF almost everywhere, so I'll have to update this again on Thursday). This week is a little startling, though. Not because the Box suggests all but one dog - that's pretty normal. More because of the teams that ARE dogs this week. MIA favored by 1? Are the Jets that bad? DET a 3 point dog to MIN? After a 4 interception week, much of which can be attributed to luck and poor play by Manning, MIN warrants 3 over DET?

Here are this week's bets ranked:

The Rankings - Spread
THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. CLE +1 v. ARI Away	42.0
2. SEA +3 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon	42.5
3. NYG -1.5 v. CHI Away	42.0
4. ATL +4.5 v. STL Away	36.5
5. JAC +7 v. IND Away - Bet Soon	44.0
6. GB +6.5 v. DAL Away	46.5
7. SF +3 v. CAR Away - Bet Soon	34.0
8. CIN +7 v. PIT Away - Bet Soon	42.0
9. BUF +5.5 v. WAS Away	42.0
10. TB +3 v. NO Away - Bet Soon	43.5
11. DET +3 v. MIN Away - Bet Soon	40.5
12. OAK +3 v. DEN @Home - Bet Soon	38.5
13. HOU +3.5 v. TEN Away	38.0
14. KC +4.5 v. SD @Home	42.5
15. BAL +20 v. NE @Home	44.0
16. NYJ +1 v. MIA Away	39.0

I will get to commentary in a later post, but those are the prelims.