Thursday, November 29, 2007

Week 13 - Best Bets and Your Mom

Your Mom called - she said to throw your money away today. You'll see why with this week's top 5:

The Rankings - Spread

* considers lay in pick order Under
1. JAC +6.5 v. IND Away 44.0
2. CLE +1 v. ARI Away 42.0
3. BAL +20.5 v. NE @Home 44.0
4. GB +7 v. DAL Away - Bet Soon 46.5
5. NYG -1.5 v. CHI Away 42.0

This is only the second week of the year that the Box has decided winning is a terrible thing. Baltimore?? NOOOOOOO!!!

After a close game last week, Tom Brady will be out for blood. And I heard he hates creepy black birds, too. So when Baltimore comes to town next Monday with a shaky Kyle Boller, no offensive firepower, and a mediocre defense; could we be back to 30 point drubbings? Well, I'll find out firsthand when I lose money on the game... sigh...

I like the Jacksonville pick, but I liked it better early this week when it was +7 and pushable. I like the GB pick, it's pushable and GB is on a roll. But my favorite pick is the NYG pick. The G-Men will be itching to take out that last loss on someone. And I have a feeling Tom Coughlin will shove Brandon Jacobs right up the Bears a-hole, keeping in a galaxy far far away from "The Other Manning". It must suck to be the red headed stepchild of the Manning family.

With the Wednesday moneylines out, here are the Box's pick ranks:

The Rankings - Moneyline

* considers lay in pick order
1. SD -260 v. KC @Home x2!
2. NO -180 v. TB Away
3. PHI -190 v. SEA Away
4. CAR -150 v. SF Away
5. TEN -210 v. HOU Away
6. WAS -250 v. BUF Away
7. DEN -200 v. OAK @Home
8. MIN -190 v. DET Away
9. IND -300 v. JAC Away
10. DAL -280 v. GB Away
11. PIT -300 v. CIN Away

Not a lot of ridiculous lays this week, which I like. 5 off games makes the picking easier, since they've already narrowed the focus. I feel like the Jets/Dolphins game being OFF and Miami being -1 indicates a trap game. The same is true of the Cleveland/Arizona game. That's a gut feeling, but if the spread is basically a pick 'em, why make the moneyline off? Of course, the CLE game is one of the top 5 this week, so I'm prepared to throw money away there, too.

I love the SD pick, though. Herm Edwards is imploding, and the team is playing accordingly. In this year's rematch of the Super Terrible Coaching Bowl, SD will be out for blood I think. The lay is low, the odds are good, and the box says to double it.

Last tidbit for the afternoon, a look at my first draft of a teaser module. I will not be betting this, but any feedback on methodology could be useful here. Note that "Two Score" means a 6 point teaser makes it at least a two score game, and "Pushable" means the spread becomes pushable. This may be a bad teaser week, but it highlights a preliminary top group as picked by the Box:

The Teaser - Playlist
Games: 4
Pick Spread Status Rank
GB 13.0 Two Score 5
SEA 9.0

BUF 11.5 Two Score 3
DET 9.5

SF 9.0

ATL 9.5

JAC 12.5 Two Score 7
NYJ 7.0 Pushable 4
HOU 9.5

KC 11.5 Two Score 8
OAK 9.5

CLE 7.0 Pushable 6
TB 9.0

NYG 4.5

CIN 13.0 Two Score 1
BAL 26.5 Two Score 2

I went with a 4 game teaser for example purposes, but pick ranks are on the right. I hate this module right now, ideas are welcome. Time to place my bets!

1 comment:

The Mad Capper said...

Shouldn't the module be pretty easy? Just have excel change all the spreads by 6 points, and re-run the calcs. You should get a new list.

I assume this is what you did, so what is it you don't like?