Monday, November 5, 2007

Week 9 - Box's Postgame - This Year, Brown is the new Green

This just in: the Cleveland Browns are 6-1 ATS. The apocalypse may or may not be nigh.

The Box results were sexy this week, and it seems to be getting back on track. The dogs are making a comeback again, but more impressively, there are some close favorites that are closing.

The Good:

So MIN now has the greatest single game RB. And he's a rookie. Reeeeeediculous. Credit to Brad Childress for not running the wheels of Adrian too early, though it's going to be hard for him not to be tempted going forward. He had 30 carries v. SD, which is way over his roughly 17 - 20 carries he normally has. With a relatively atrocious passing game (though possibly improved by Holcomb?), it will be hard not to go into a run-Adrian-til-he-collapses mode going into a tough game at GB next week.

CLE beat one of the "better" teams of the NFC. CLE is still mediocre, but they are somehow pulling out some nice wins, and better than that, they keep covering. BUF is the same way, they've had some impressive covers, and now they actually out-offensed the laughable CIN defense. I actually like them going forward, and I'd guess the Box will too. TB and TEN - I don't care what you do, just keep doing it. The spreads are ALWAYS low in these games, and they are almost always covering.

The Terribly Horrible:

JAC and PHI has what Capper has aptly named multiple personality, a moniker they live up to week in and week out. While schizephrenia is funny in theory, it's really freakin annoying when the box picks JAC and loses week in and week out. I'm just now finishing a new volatility measure that may overwrite some of these annoying tendencies (more on this later), but for now, they make me want to shoot myself.

DEN... what??? Really???? DET? I'm not sure if Shanahan is having the team play Go-Fish as "practice", but that was really really terrible. I'd call it an "Any Given Sunday" loss, but to lose by 37 points is... well...

Updates to the Box are happening now, including: Sharpe Ratio, Beta measuring, and a new conviction averager.

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