Thursday, November 29, 2007

Week 13 - Capper and Box lovefest - Preliminary picks

Well well, Excelius, we have another week where we actually agree! Last time it worked well for me, and you got hosed. Let's hope for more of the same. I mean different. Possibly same...

Because my actual job took up too much time this week, I wasn't able to give you the Vegas vs Capper table. However, these are the games that I love this week, and unbelievably the box agrees, mostly. Must be my birthday.

1. CLE +1 v. ARI - One of atleast 3 games where Vegas favored the opposite team I did? Can this be true? and it's the box's #1 pick! This definitely must be my birthday. I said to bet the house if CLE is favored by less than 3 points... so i suppose it's good I'm a renter. This would be my double-down pick, if i was so inclined, though.

2. NYG (-1.5) at CHI - Love seeing Chicago get credit for their special teams' insanity last week. No way they get 3 touchdowns from special teams each week. This game might just be the case study for my Wave Theory. I had capped this game at NYG (-6), so I feel like I'm playing with 4.5 free points.

3. DET +3 v. MIN - I hate betting against the Minnesota Spreadbusters, but this is almost too good to be true. MIN gets a huge upset against the G-Men, but Manning gift-wrapped 21 points for them. MIN still has no offense, an ineffective QB and no Peterson. My own laws state not to bet on DET (multiple personality reasons) and against MIN (spreadbusters)... do I have the discipline? I don't think i'll know til Saturday.

4. JAC +7 v. IND - Indy is still banged up, and JAX is rolling. This should be a close game, so the 7 points seems excessive. The box likes it at #5, so that's even more encouragement

5. TB +3 v. NO Away - The box shocked me with this one. The box loooves NO. Every week I can't believe you bet NO. Over and over again. Saints Saints Saints.... Well, welcome to the dark side, my friend. I actually have TB favored in this game (-2), so this is another potential moneyline pick. I love erasing the juice.

6. HOU +3.5 v. TEN - As Excelius has pointed out, TN has been in a slide and it may be that it should have been expected. HOU is still a scary team to me with AJ and MS, so i liked this to be a game they could pull out. The spread might be too low for me to take a shot, though.

7. OAK +3 v. DEN - This is one we disagree on. OAK seems ranked suspiciously high in your financials (we need a better name for this list), but maybe they are better than common knowledge suggests? Or maybe Den is an wave theory pick... They are good enough to beat PIT , KC and TN. But recently they've barely lost big to DET, then barely to GB (overtime), and barely to CHI (despite giving up 3 tds on special teams). I dunno, i'll probably stay away from this one, since we agree on so many others.

8. NYJ +1 v. MIA - I just figured NYJ are a little better, and pretty weird that they're the 'dog. As you can see my conviction basically matches the box (#16), so we'll see if i need an extra pick to make my parlays work.

9. BUF +5.5 v. WAS - You have to figure WAS is distracted this week, plus they now have to start their backup safety. Unfortunately I heard they benched JP again, and haven't heard if Lynch is healed. You know the more I write this, the more I think I'm staying away from this game. Too many variables.

No comments: