Monday, November 12, 2007

Week 10 - Recap - Multiple Personality Strikes Again!

Tough week on all fronts. The box failed me, and I failed me.

First, the winners:

Cleveland - I had them in on a teaser and straight parlay +16 and +10, respectively. Cleveland continues to be an underrated football team, and continues to beat the spreads. I almost bet this game straight up on a moneyline since it was +400, but am glad I did not. That last-second field goal miss quite possibly would have destroyed me.

GB - GB continues to be a solid pick week in and week out. I am a little nervous moving forward with them, since they just pounded a MIN team that just pounded a SD team that just beat up IND. Plus they beat KC and DEN in their houses in the previous two weeks. Wave Theory may suggest they will start to be overvalued in coming weeks, definitely something to keep an eye out for.

Buffalo - They made it scary, but they covered their 2.5 points against a lousy MIA team. I actually thought this game was way underestimating the Bills, I'm glad the spread wasn't higher, i probably would have bet them all the way to +7. Looking forward, I'm thinking they are still a good pick against low-average opponents, especially since they will be destroyed by NE next week.

CIN - Finally! I have lost so many bets betting on this team (and in any game involving BAL), but they beat the Ravens like they should have. Also considered this as an upset moneyline pick, but in the end stuck to using them in a parlay. Looking forward, I will probably avoid this team mostly. They may be a good team to pick against, as they may become overvalued after upsetting the Ravens, who people still seem to think are a playoff team (they are not).

And... The losers:

DET - a Multiple Personality team and I made them my #1 pick of the week - and it completely screwed me. I had them in half of my parlays so this game shut off 50% of my chances. Vegas had Arizona favored, the box, G-SPAM and I all thought they were crazy... classic trap game. How could a DET team on a winning streak against some solid oponnents be underdogs against a losing ARI team playing with a 60% healthy backup quarterback? No clue. But they were right. ARI forced 5 turnovers, and that was all she wrote. I know better than to bet on multiple personality teams, but i ignored it and it cost me.

WAS - beaten by a multiple personality team - Philly. Dammit again! I know better than to bet these games, yet I did it twice this week! twice! Ugh. I had WAS in a four team moneyline parlay. Very disappointed in myself for picking this game.

INDY - By the time they played, My four bets had already lost, so I didn't find out until this morning that they were upset by SD. 6 picks from Manning? yikes. definitely one of those freak games of the week. Normally I would be more pissed, but the multiple personality teams already screwed my bets. I'll continue to hold Indy high in future picks. I'm not worried about them.

Tennessee - I took them in a teaser, figuring that they would beat JAX again, and taking away the negative point spread. Didn't matter as JAX came through with thte upset. I usually don't bet on TN because I think they are regularly overrated, yet continue to win. That was my logic on the teaser bet - it might not be pretty but they'll pull off the W. Looking forward I'm thinking they can't be trusted at all.

The box - I'm surprised to hear you won this week, Matty. A lot of Box's top picks went down. I noticed you pulled one parlay off, depsite this though:

MIA, CAR, NYG, MIN, NO all lost.

Good for you for picking the right combos and navigating away from these guys.

Gotta rest up, continue inputting data into my wave theory spreadsheet and get back to you later.

PS check out the comments in your last post, i dropped some questions for you.


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