Thursday, November 22, 2007

Week 12 - Matty is Mad, Capper is Cool - Final Picks

Matty Matty Matty.... What the hell are you doing?! (yes, i use multiple punctuation marks).

I completely agree that you are nuts for hedging the STL vs DET game. How can you be banking on a 1 or 2 point victory... let alone that you are relying on inconsistent SEA. You should hedge your algorithm by calculating the likelihood of a 1-2 point victory. Historically I bet it's less than 10%. Nuts I tell you. NUTS!

Another criticism... you're gonzo with your CLE vs HOU multi-bet. You pick the o/u on the game... fine. But picking CLE to cover -3.5 and then picking them to win the moneyline in the same parlay just doesn't make sense. If they win the game by less than 4 points, you will win your moneyline, but lose your spread pick anyway - destroying the parlay. now this would be fine if the moneyline was a higher risk-higher reward bet, but it's not! CLE -3.5 will pay 1:1 (less the juice), while the premium on the moneyline pick (since CLE is favored ) is ~70%! Why not just stick with the spread pick? If CLE wins but doesn't cover, you're parlay loses.

This parlay could hold some water if you were betting on an underdog. Say you thought HOU would win... Then you bet HOU +3.5 and pay the standard 15% juice, and you parlay this with a HOU +150 moneyline... Now you pay the same juice, but your moneyline pick ups your payout. This week the ideal game to play this game with would be DEN +2. We both think they beat CHI, and you'd be willing to bet them with the 2 points, and get the bonus payout for moneylining the 'dog.

As for the rest of your bets... this is more of the typical week where we completely disagree. I won't touch most of the games you bet, and the few games we both bet on, I am on the other side. This season you have kicked my ass in these situations, but I'm sticking to my guns.

I've made a last minute (albeit 5 glasses of wine) switch. I heard today that Priest Holmes retired. This means that KC is starting inexperienced Brady Croyle and now is down to their 3rd string back. While I still love KC at home vs OAK, I am no longer confident in their ability to cover a -5 spread. Therefore... I am adding a 2-team teaser to take advantage of an expected KC victory (KC +1) and adding in IND to cover a -6 spread vs. ATL... ATL has no quarterback, and no defense. They are f**ked. Will Indy win? YES! Will they win by a touchdown... I think so.

The second half of this new outlook is that KC needs to be dropped from my 3-team parlay. I'm sticking to my initial opinion that DET is overrated and that GB destroys them. Insert GB-3! Lastly, since the spread is only 2 in the DEN vs CHI game, and I like the 'dog (DEN), I'm switching from a spread pick to a moneyline bet to take advantage of the bonus payout, and avoid paying juice. If DEN loses by 1 point, I guess I deserve it. But again, what are the odds of that?

6-point Teaser:
[IND-6 at ATL -- KC +0.5 vs OAK]
[GB+3 at DET -- JAX -1.5 vs BUF -- ARI -4 vs SF -- KC +0.5 vs OAK]

3-team Parlay: [DEN +2 vs CHI -- GB -3 vs DET -- TN -1 vs CIN]

Straight up:
[DEN +110]
[TEN -1]

Friends shouldn't let friends bet drunk, but I'm here by myself with a bottle of Spanish Tempranillo Red Wine.

Cheers.

2 comments:

Matty and the Box said...

I should clarify - there's no way in HELL I'm betting the single game parlay. It was just fun to make more than anything, I don't have the faintest idea whether or not it works. Nothing like having all your eggs in one basket!

Re: the StL pick - I can't argue with your logic, I don't like the hedge. But the Box says and I do, since I can't argue even remotely with the historical results. If I had bet it this way to begin with, I'd be a quadtrillionaire. Or maybe a little less.

The Mad Capper said...

You are more than the machine, my friend. Never forget that.