Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Week 11 - Cap In Yo'... Basset Hound

It's another dog filled week for the Box! I gotta say, on some of your caps there Cappy, you are getting pretty close. I think you even picked the trap game (I'm thinking ARI v. CIN is the trap this week, though it MAY be NO v. HOU). Some notes on the Box picks - where it says "x2!" after a pick, it indicates a Box suggested double down based on a low volatility game. Where it says "Bet Soon", it's indicating that the spread is currently pushable (ie, 3, 7, 10, 14...). It means any spread move is significant, since it requires an additional score or one less score to cover. Also, I've added, just for fun, the Box's suggested Over/Under this week. It may not become a regular thing, but I'm adding it for kicks this week. My fun pick this week may be a single game Spread/Moneyline/Over-Under parlay. Wheeee!

Here's what the Box has to say:

* considers lay in pick order Under
1. NO -0.01 v. HOU Away 40.0
2. WAS +10.5 v. DAL Away x2! 44.0
3. MIA +10 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon 40.0
4. NYJ +9.5 v. PIT @Home 41.5
5. CAR +9.5 v. GB Away 41.0
6. OAK +5.5 v. MIN Away 38.0
7. SF +2 v. STL @Home 33.0
8. SD +3 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon 43.5
9. CHI +5.5 v. SEA Away 40.0
10. DET +2.5 v. NYG @Home 41.0
11. BAL +2.5 v. CLE @Home 40.5
12. ARI +3 v. CIN Away - Bet Soon 40.5
13. BUF +15.5 v. NE @Home 46.5
14. TEN +2 v. DEN Away 41.0
15. KC +14 v. IND Away - Bet Soon 43.0
16. ATL +3 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon 41.5

Now, the NO game is currently a pick 'em, but the Box doesn't get that, so I have to make it some number less than .5. I went with .01, since making it less than that (I tried all the way to .) didn't make a difference in the Box convictions.

My favorites for the Box this week are NO, NYJ, and CAR, all in the top 5. NO will be hell bent this week to punish someone for that embarrassing loss. I wouldn't be surprised if Drew comes out deep and doesn't stop. It'll be a shootout, but with a rusty Schaub, my money's on NO. NYJ is a.) not as bad as they seem, and b.) not good at all. I think that's the perfect combo, plus an Eric Mangini who's familiar with Big Ben, for a 3 point loss and a beatdown of the spread. CAR is similar to me, despite the QB problems. I think if the D plays anywhere near the way they played in the 1st quarter of the IND game, it's a game that ends with a 3 point loss and a beatdown of this massive spread.

My least favorites, BUF, SD, BAL, and SF. Firstly, betting against NE is like mailing a check to the North Pole. Somebody's getting rich, and it ain't me. I'm glad the pick is a distant 13th. For the SD game, it's not hard to figure out how to win: stack the box, laugh at Philip Rivers. Honestly, he's a step away from wearing a bonnet instead of a helmet. I would have loved a JAC pick out of the Box here, but it was not to be. BAL is another one - BAL?? It may end up being a good pick if Boller gets the ball. Wait, wait... did I just say that starting Boller is a GOOD thing? Ridiculous. I agree with you on the STL v. SF game, too - Alex Smith DOES wear a bonnet when he plays. Did you see him launch almost every ball about 5 yards above his receiver's head on Monday night? How did anyone think SF could play on Monday night? Or is that where they put the game that's over early enough to get to bed for work?

In other news, here are the Box's overall W/L record on the year, and then over the Box's lifetime (2 years). Room for improvement, but respectable (and even profitable) if I were betting every game:

Through Week 10
Win: 75
Loss: 63
Push: 6
Overall Win %: 54.17%

Through Week 10
Win: 224
Loss: 167
Push: 9
Overall Win %: 57.13%

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