Thursday, November 22, 2007

Week 12 - Box's Final Bets

Let me just say that I don't like my bets this week. In fact, I may prefer to have my face rub up against a cheese grater than make these bets. Too bad the Box says go. I am just a drone...

Bets for Week 12
Moneyline: SEA (-160) v. STL - $19.05 to win $11.91
Moneyline: CLE (-170) v. HOU - $5.00 to win $2.94
Spread: SF +10 (-110) v. ARI - $11.14 to win $10.13
Spread: MIN +7.5 (-120) v. NYG - $7.07 to win $5.89
Spread: STL +3 (-115) v. SEA - $11.48 to win $9.98
Spread: BUF +7.5 (-110) v. JAC - $6.25 to win $5.68
Spread: DET +3 (110) v. GB - $5.37 to win $5.91
Parlay: STL +3 (-115) v. SEA, CAR +3 (-120) v. NO, DET +3 (110) v. GB - $5.00 to win $30.99

Bet Totals: $70.36
Potential Winnings: $83.43

The stupidest part is the $20 SEA to win bet, coupled with 2 STL +3 bets. I'm throwing money away somewhere, especially when the Box is so convicted both ways. The Box is like a lawyer, arguing every side of everything.

Let's try to figure this out, shall we?

STL is the 3rd ranked spread pick, and is a statistical pick that wasn't overridden by they new Less Than Three module due to the 3 point spread. It's also a double down bet as the overall lowest game beta this week. So far, I like those odds. Seattle is overrated, and St. Louis is getting healthier. Not to mention they're playing on the turf. All good arguments for a St. Louis pick.

But then we move on to the moneyline. Moneyline is a combination of statistical conviction, alpha, Sharpe, and beta all rolled into one. The Box picks STL because statistically it's pegged the game at a 2 point Seattle win, not 3 as the spread suggests. So the moneyline statistically favors Seattle as well. But here's where it gets crazy. Seattle's Sharpe and alpha are OFF THE CHARTS compared to STL (see below for chart).

Pick: STL Opp: SEA
Pick: 16.75 Diff: -7.00
Opp: 9.75 Adv: SEA

STL has a minor beta advantage, but both of their betas are so high, it shouldn't matter - they should play as consistently as they have all season hypothetically. So not only am I caught betting on Seattle to win with a big bet, but the Box throws STL against the spread in its parlay suggestions and straight wagers. I now require the perfect storm: a 1 or 2 point Seattle victory. Small margin for error I would say.

I think I need to figure a way to exclude any moneyline bet if I've already got a spread bet going and the spread is 3 or less. This way, I won't be praying Seattle gets that safety to win the game, and I can rest easy thinking it'll just be a field goal. Sigh. Another losing week on the horizon? Am I outsmarting myself? Well, I'm a genius, so if anyone could outsmart me, it would be ME.

Cross your fingers, I need a big week. Lots of money down, let's get there.

And I haven't back tested this at all, but worth a giggle - the Box now suggests a single game parlay bet, and here it is:

O / U
I haven't backtested this module, but it was fun to make. I like the idea of having $5 or $10 on a single game with 3 factors going at once. The O/U represents what the over/under should be. So if Vegas has it at 45, you bet the under. If it's 40, you bet the over. Since I haven't tracked o/u historically, getting and back data will be very hard if not impossible, but at least it's entertaining.

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