Keeping in stride with my Mad Capper avatar, I made the crazy decision to place a last minute bet on GB:
GB +2 at Den; and
GB +130 at Den
GBs overtime victory won both the moneyline bet and the spread bet, netting me some cash. Now I need to decide if I stick with my all-in philosophy of the last couple weeks or spread it out a little.
Showing posts with label week 08 2007. Show all posts
Showing posts with label week 08 2007. Show all posts
Monday, October 29, 2007
Week 8 - Box's Postgame - Discretion Is a Box's Best Friend
Sweeeet. The parlays saved my ass, really.
I think the best way the box will work is to bet it's top 3 spreads
each
week, it's top moneyline (taking into account the lay - it gives me the
highest conviction pick with the highest payout), and then one or two
"discretionary" parlays. The 3 team parlay was suggested by the box in
its entirety, and I liked the choices so I went with it. The 5 team
moneyline parlay was purely discretionary inasmuch as I looked over the
box's moneyline picks and chose the ones I liked the most - what I
thought were my "sure things". This way, I get to play a bit, but the
box does the heavy lifting.
I think the best way the box will work is to bet it's top 3 spreads
each
week, it's top moneyline (taking into account the lay - it gives me the
highest conviction pick with the highest payout), and then one or two
"discretionary" parlays. The 3 team parlay was suggested by the box in
its entirety, and I liked the choices so I went with it. The 5 team
moneyline parlay was purely discretionary inasmuch as I looked over the
box's moneyline picks and chose the ones I liked the most - what I
thought were my "sure things". This way, I get to play a bit, but the
box does the heavy lifting.
Week 8 - Capper's Postgame - R.I.P. Mad Capper
I got your voicemail... congrats on your moneyline parlays!
interesting that you went with those since the box picks against the spread i
thought? What were the payouts on those bets?
As for me... TB pulled within 2 so that wasn't the game that screwed
me over. unbelievable that the giants went into prevent defense at the
end of that game and let mia march down the field and score that
garbage TD. that blew up my teaser by 1/2 point! half a frickin point.
unbelievable... that's what i get for putting all the eggs in the same
basket though.
This is too much fun to give up on, but I can't afford to keep losing
money like this... so... i've decided to keep betting low stakes
unless i get back ontop in a few weeks. i'll probably make 2-3 parlay bets
per week at $5 a piece. a couple wins can get me back in the game, and
a bunch of losses won't be a big deal.
Anyway, I'm gonna handicap next weeks game this morning before the
official lines come out.
interesting that you went with those since the box picks against the spread i
thought? What were the payouts on those bets?
As for me... TB pulled within 2 so that wasn't the game that screwed
me over. unbelievable that the giants went into prevent defense at the
end of that game and let mia march down the field and score that
garbage TD. that blew up my teaser by 1/2 point! half a frickin point.
unbelievable... that's what i get for putting all the eggs in the same
basket though.
This is too much fun to give up on, but I can't afford to keep losing
money like this... so... i've decided to keep betting low stakes
unless i get back ontop in a few weeks. i'll probably make 2-3 parlay bets
per week at $5 a piece. a couple wins can get me back in the game, and
a bunch of losses won't be a big deal.
Anyway, I'm gonna handicap next weeks game this morning before the
official lines come out.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Week 8 - Box's Results
Week 8 Final Results as follows:
| Results for Week 8 |
| Spread: CIN +3.5 (-105) v. PIT - $6.22 wins $0.00 |
| Spread: NO -2.5 (-120) v. SF - $6.53 wins $11.97 |
| Spread: WAS +16 (-110) v. NE - $7.25 wins $0.00 |
| Moneyline: BUF (125) v. NYJ - $5.00 wins $11.25 |
| Parlay: NO -2.5 (-120) v. SF, TEN (-350) v. OAK, IND (-300) v. CAR - $5.00 wins $15.71 |
| Parlay: NO (-145) v. SF, TEN (-350) v. OAK, IND (-300) v. CAR, CLE (-165) v. STL, BUF (125) v. NYJ - $5.00 wins $52.34 |
| Results for Week 8 | |
| Bet Totals: | $35.00 |
| Potential Winnings: | $82.25 |
| Potential Payouts: | $91.27 |
| Actual Profit: | $56.27 |
| %s: Week 8 | 160.77% |
Friday, October 26, 2007
Week 8 - Teasers Explained
There are different levels of teaser. I have been using 6-point teasers, which means that in each of your bets in your parlay, the team you pick is given an extra 6 points. In each game one team gets all 6 points, so you can't pick and choose how many points to give to a team in each game, though that's kind of a cool idea.
Week 8 - Any Last Words?
...as for the TB game, I totally agree with your analysis. JAX will pound the ball. TB has a good D, and they'll be able to stack the box against the one-dimensional offense. I also like that:
1. TB is at home.
2. The point spread on the teaser is TB +2.5, so even if they lose a close game, the bet still wins.
3. I just heard that MJD is hurt and probably won't play.
my other final choices were:
NO (+3.5) vs SF
GB (+9) vs DEN
DET (+11) vs CHI
I liked all those games, including the NO game you are banking on, but I am overly cautious this week since (in theory) i've used up my bankroll. My explanation for not picking the other 3 are that: NO has laid quite a few eggs this year, so that makes me nervous, DEN at home and coming off a big PIT win could suddenly start rolling, DET has multiple personality disorder against a CHI team that seems to have re-discovered itself. I think they're all good bets, but I went with my top 3 - all in, baby.
Your bets:
You've gotten interesting with the moneyline betting, including moneyline parlays. I tried them one week and got totally screwed, so I wrote them off... Have you had some luck with them? The BUF +125 seems like a great pick, I may have to load in an extra $20 to put on that game. Notice I completely shied away from that game on my teaser, going along with my completely paranoid 'trap game' theory.
Why oh why would you bet against New England? Didn't you read the article comparing the Pats to the Cobra Kai Yankees?
What are the payouts on your parlays? You've got a lot of heavily favored teams in there, so it would seem the payouts wouldn't be worth it...
There is indeed a ton of crossover on your parlays. Risky business if you ask me.
1. TB is at home.
2. The point spread on the teaser is TB +2.5, so even if they lose a close game, the bet still wins.
3. I just heard that MJD is hurt and probably won't play.
my other final choices were:
NO (+3.5) vs SF
GB (+9) vs DEN
DET (+11) vs CHI
I liked all those games, including the NO game you are banking on, but I am overly cautious this week since (in theory) i've used up my bankroll. My explanation for not picking the other 3 are that: NO has laid quite a few eggs this year, so that makes me nervous, DEN at home and coming off a big PIT win could suddenly start rolling, DET has multiple personality disorder against a CHI team that seems to have re-discovered itself. I think they're all good bets, but I went with my top 3 - all in, baby.
Your bets:
You've gotten interesting with the moneyline betting, including moneyline parlays. I tried them one week and got totally screwed, so I wrote them off... Have you had some luck with them? The BUF +125 seems like a great pick, I may have to load in an extra $20 to put on that game. Notice I completely shied away from that game on my teaser, going along with my completely paranoid 'trap game' theory.
Why oh why would you bet against New England? Didn't you read the article comparing the Pats to the Cobra Kai Yankees?
What are the payouts on your parlays? You've got a lot of heavily favored teams in there, so it would seem the payouts wouldn't be worth it...
There is indeed a ton of crossover on your parlays. Risky business if you ask me.
Week 8 - Capper's Final Bets
After careful consideration, my week 8 pick is in! I went with a 3
team teaser (6 points) for a payout of 9:5.
Indy (-0.5) over Car
NYG (-3.5) over Mia
TB (+2.5) over JAX
I've got my last $32.70 riding on this game, and a winner brings me
up to $90. Not so good considering I started with $180, but atleast
i'll be back in the game.
team teaser (6 points) for a payout of 9:5.
Indy (-0.5) over Car
NYG (-3.5) over Mia
TB (+2.5) over JAX
I've got my last $32.70 riding on this game, and a winner brings me
up to $90. Not so good considering I started with $180, but atleast
i'll be back in the game.
Week 8 - The Box Speaks, Commentary on Picks
Ooh, can't say I like the TB pick. It will be a purely defensive game,
and Jax will pound the ground since Gray is starting for Gerrard. I
think Jac will actually win this one. The other two are no brainers in
my opinion - though I would have taken the NYG points down to under -3
(if that's the way the teaser works? Or is it 2 per game?).
My picks went as follows:
I spent $35 of my $80 bankroll, I decided I can't be betting it all
every week since I run the risk of losing everything in one week.
CIN +3.5 v. PIT @Home
NO -2.5 v. SF Away
WAS +16 v. NE Away
Total: $20
BUF -125 v NYJ Away
Total: $5
IND -300 v CAR, TEN -350 v OAK, NO -2.5 v SF
BUF +125 v NYJ, CLE -165 v STL, IND -300 v CAR, TEN -350 v OAK, NO -145
v SF
Total: $10
The parlays were more fun bets, and the 5 team parlay was my picking my
top five favorite Box picks, so it's a combination of gut and stats. A
lot hinges on NO, since they're involved in 3 of my bets (including
both
parlays), but if NO loses all the way around, I can still break even
because I bet decent lays otherwise.
and Jax will pound the ground since Gray is starting for Gerrard. I
think Jac will actually win this one. The other two are no brainers in
my opinion - though I would have taken the NYG points down to under -3
(if that's the way the teaser works? Or is it 2 per game?).
My picks went as follows:
I spent $35 of my $80 bankroll, I decided I can't be betting it all
every week since I run the risk of losing everything in one week.
CIN +3.5 v. PIT @Home
NO -2.5 v. SF Away
WAS +16 v. NE Away
Total: $20
BUF -125 v NYJ Away
Total: $5
IND -300 v CAR, TEN -350 v OAK, NO -2.5 v SF
BUF +125 v NYJ, CLE -165 v STL, IND -300 v CAR, TEN -350 v OAK, NO -145
v SF
Total: $10
The parlays were more fun bets, and the 5 team parlay was my picking my
top five favorite Box picks, so it's a combination of gut and stats. A
lot hinges on NO, since they're involved in 3 of my bets (including
both
parlays), but if NO loses all the way around, I can still break even
because I bet decent lays otherwise.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Week 8 - Box's Final Bets
Week 8 Final Bets per the Box are as follows:
| Bets for Week 8 |
| Spread: CIN +3.5 (-105) v. PIT - $6.22 to win $5.92 |
| Spread: NO -2.5 (-120) v. SF - $6.53 to win $5.44 |
| Spread: WAS +16 (-110) v. NE - $7.25 to win $6.59 |
| Moneyline: BUF (125) v. NYJ - $5.00 to win $6.25 |
| Parlay: NO -2.5 (-120) v. SF, TEN (-350) v. OAK, IND (-300) v. CAR - $5.00 to win $10.71 |
| Parlay: NO (-145) v. SF, TEN (-350) v. OAK, IND (-300) v. CAR, CLE (-165) v. STL, BUF (125) v. NYJ - $5.00 to win $47.34 |
| Bet Totals: | $35.00 |
| Potential Winnings: | $82.25 |
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Week 8 - Capper's First Impressions - To Agree, or Not To Agree
OK, since I didn't get my pick in last week I am in the same predicament. Must pick my favorite winner, and go all in. I actually agreed with most of your picks this week, including WAS v NE (although I'm not crazy enough to bet this one):
MIA +9.5 v. nyg - I disagree with the box here. NYG are steamrolling teams right now and MIA looks like it wants to hide under a rock. They lost their starting QB, starting RB, and traded their #1 Wideout and TE. Zach Thomas is quoted as saying 'our defense stinks this year', Jason Taylor is quoted saying 'we are rebuilding, why is everyone afraid to say it?'. I'm considering making this my all-in pick, but the 9.5 spread is scaring me a little.
MIN +1 v. phi - You love this pick? I handicapped this game MIN +3, so I'm actually getting 2 less points than I wanted. Plus, I have a policy against betting games that involve multiple-personality teams. You just don't know which PHI team is gonna show up. It's not like they don't have the players, they are the same as last year. So why do they keep getting beat? I'm staying away.
det +5 at CHI - Agreement, but not with conviction. I handicapped this game at det +4, so I'm actually getting an extra point here, and the more I think about it there is every reason DET can win this game. I don't get the feeling CHI is ready to start rolling, they really haven't fixed any of their problems - can't run, can't stop the run, defensive injuries - BUT BUT BUT! Look what we have here! Another multiple personality team! DET regularly kills me by getting beat when they are supposed to win, and winning when they are supposed to lose. Yes, i like the big spread and think Chi is overrated but man DET scares me.
oak +7.5 at TEN - I'm agreeing with you and the box here. I handicapped the game at OAK +5, so Vegas is giving me 2.5 more points to play with. However, like you I am nervous about Young's return. TEN is home, and they seem to be a sleeper team. I don't know that they crush OAK, but I don't give the raiders a chance to pull this out. I think I'm too iffy to go all-in with this pick.
CAR +6.5 v. ind - This is the second game that I am considering for my all-in pick that goes against the box. I wouldn't bet on CAR with less than a 15 point spread - and Vegas put it at only 6.5! The Testaverde incident last week was a fluke in my opinion. Indy wins big.
cle -3 at STL - This seems to be the obvious game of the week... which makes me very very nervous. Why would the spread be so low? Surely the oddsmakers know that cleveland's offense has been putting up big points, and STL can't tie their shoelaces? What do they know that I don't? At first glance this is my #1 pick, the box agrees, you agree.... but there's something fishy going on. Every week there's one or two 'locks' that don't pan out - and for some reason Vegas knows it. Dr. Z fom SI calls this game 'the trap game' - his theory is that the oddsmakers know a lot more than anyone else, and since their goal is not to predict winners, but to get people to bet on the wrong team, every week they set a 'trap game' - by making a spread too good to be true. Dr. Z refuses to bet on these games. Similarly, Bill Simmons of espn.com page 2 says each week their is one 'obvious game' which he always bets against his gut. He doesn't blame Vegas
oddsmakers, but rather those evil gods Caprice and Whimsy. It is, of course, possible that I just need to sack up and make the bet.
CIN +3.5 v. pit - Disagreement here. CIN beating the Jets is only an indication of how low NYJ have fallen. CIN still has too many injuries, team disunity and let's not forget the steelers are gonna be pissed after losing to DEN last week. I handicapped this game at CIN +6.
buf +3 at NYJ - This also reeks of a Trap Game. Buffalo is 2-1 under their roookie QB, with the one loss being a great game vs DAL. The Jets keep finding ways to lose, and BUF already beat them once this year! You smell that? Do ya? TRAP! I'm staying far far far away from this game. My guess is with the Jets at home, Pennington playing to keep Clemens off the bench, and Mangini coaching for his life, NYJ pull an upset here.
jac +4 at TB - This is #3 that I am considering for my all-in pick despite what the box says. I hadicapped this one on the nose, but when I think about the game a bit more... Did you watch the MNF game? JAX's backup is a-w-f-u-l. I am pretty sure I saw him throw 4 incomplete passes in a row to WRs who ran hook patterns, and missed the target by 10 feet! The wideouts were standing still! I could have atleast thrown it near the guy's feet. As we noticed in week 2, TB is a real team, and even though they lost last week, Garcia's numbers are still great and they got beat by 4-2 DET. No shame in that.
hou +9 at SD - I agree with you here, but I'm not betting this game. SD doesn't even know what stadium they are playing in, but they are a hot team right now and definitely fit into the multiple personality category. FYI I handicapped it at HOU +6.
no -2.5 at SF - I handicapped this game at NO -5, so i agree with you and the box, here. NO seems to have gotten their act together, and SF looks plain awful. I am considering this game for my all-in pick. I am having trouble shaking off that foul smell from the beginning of the season though. Man, NO looked bad.
was +16 at NE - EESH. I put WAS +10 for this game, so unfortunately I am in total agreement with you. WAS has the best defense NE has faced so far, and here's a little tidbit... the last 2 games opposing running backs are AVERAGING 6 yards a carry. Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, how ya doing? Vegas is sick of NE beating spreads so they set it stupid high knowing that people would still bet on NE. Those bastards. You have to pick WAS to cover here. That is, if you are daring enough to bet this game. I am not.
gb +3 at DEN - GB had a bye week, so they've been gameplanning for two weeks. DEN is coming off a huge win vs PIT, so are they playing like they should have all along? Or was that a fluke and now they come back to earth against the 5-1 Packers? Tough to call - but I actually put GB -2 as my spread. In theory this should be an easy pick, then. However, I can't figure out these teams. DEN has a talented young QB, a strong TE, good running, decent wideouts, Dre Bly and Champ Bailey. Their weakness appears to be run defense. But wait, PIT has an awesome ground game and lost to DEN last week. And wait! GB has the 32nd ranked running game. So it's weakness vs. weakness. GBs defense is stout, so I am tempted to hang my hat on the fact that they will stop DEN's offense. BUT then again... PIT's defense is stout too! I'm gonna go look at game highlights and stats before making a call on this one...
MIA +9.5 v. nyg - I disagree with the box here. NYG are steamrolling teams right now and MIA looks like it wants to hide under a rock. They lost their starting QB, starting RB, and traded their #1 Wideout and TE. Zach Thomas is quoted as saying 'our defense stinks this year', Jason Taylor is quoted saying 'we are rebuilding, why is everyone afraid to say it?'. I'm considering making this my all-in pick, but the 9.5 spread is scaring me a little.
MIN +1 v. phi - You love this pick? I handicapped this game MIN +3, so I'm actually getting 2 less points than I wanted. Plus, I have a policy against betting games that involve multiple-personality teams. You just don't know which PHI team is gonna show up. It's not like they don't have the players, they are the same as last year. So why do they keep getting beat? I'm staying away.
det +5 at CHI - Agreement, but not with conviction. I handicapped this game at det +4, so I'm actually getting an extra point here, and the more I think about it there is every reason DET can win this game. I don't get the feeling CHI is ready to start rolling, they really haven't fixed any of their problems - can't run, can't stop the run, defensive injuries - BUT BUT BUT! Look what we have here! Another multiple personality team! DET regularly kills me by getting beat when they are supposed to win, and winning when they are supposed to lose. Yes, i like the big spread and think Chi is overrated but man DET scares me.
oak +7.5 at TEN - I'm agreeing with you and the box here. I handicapped the game at OAK +5, so Vegas is giving me 2.5 more points to play with. However, like you I am nervous about Young's return. TEN is home, and they seem to be a sleeper team. I don't know that they crush OAK, but I don't give the raiders a chance to pull this out. I think I'm too iffy to go all-in with this pick.
CAR +6.5 v. ind - This is the second game that I am considering for my all-in pick that goes against the box. I wouldn't bet on CAR with less than a 15 point spread - and Vegas put it at only 6.5! The Testaverde incident last week was a fluke in my opinion. Indy wins big.
cle -3 at STL - This seems to be the obvious game of the week... which makes me very very nervous. Why would the spread be so low? Surely the oddsmakers know that cleveland's offense has been putting up big points, and STL can't tie their shoelaces? What do they know that I don't? At first glance this is my #1 pick, the box agrees, you agree.... but there's something fishy going on. Every week there's one or two 'locks' that don't pan out - and for some reason Vegas knows it. Dr. Z fom SI calls this game 'the trap game' - his theory is that the oddsmakers know a lot more than anyone else, and since their goal is not to predict winners, but to get people to bet on the wrong team, every week they set a 'trap game' - by making a spread too good to be true. Dr. Z refuses to bet on these games. Similarly, Bill Simmons of espn.com page 2 says each week their is one 'obvious game' which he always bets against his gut. He doesn't blame Vegas
oddsmakers, but rather those evil gods Caprice and Whimsy. It is, of course, possible that I just need to sack up and make the bet.
CIN +3.5 v. pit - Disagreement here. CIN beating the Jets is only an indication of how low NYJ have fallen. CIN still has too many injuries, team disunity and let's not forget the steelers are gonna be pissed after losing to DEN last week. I handicapped this game at CIN +6.
buf +3 at NYJ - This also reeks of a Trap Game. Buffalo is 2-1 under their roookie QB, with the one loss being a great game vs DAL. The Jets keep finding ways to lose, and BUF already beat them once this year! You smell that? Do ya? TRAP! I'm staying far far far away from this game. My guess is with the Jets at home, Pennington playing to keep Clemens off the bench, and Mangini coaching for his life, NYJ pull an upset here.
jac +4 at TB - This is #3 that I am considering for my all-in pick despite what the box says. I hadicapped this one on the nose, but when I think about the game a bit more... Did you watch the MNF game? JAX's backup is a-w-f-u-l. I am pretty sure I saw him throw 4 incomplete passes in a row to WRs who ran hook patterns, and missed the target by 10 feet! The wideouts were standing still! I could have atleast thrown it near the guy's feet. As we noticed in week 2, TB is a real team, and even though they lost last week, Garcia's numbers are still great and they got beat by 4-2 DET. No shame in that.
hou +9 at SD - I agree with you here, but I'm not betting this game. SD doesn't even know what stadium they are playing in, but they are a hot team right now and definitely fit into the multiple personality category. FYI I handicapped it at HOU +6.
no -2.5 at SF - I handicapped this game at NO -5, so i agree with you and the box, here. NO seems to have gotten their act together, and SF looks plain awful. I am considering this game for my all-in pick. I am having trouble shaking off that foul smell from the beginning of the season though. Man, NO looked bad.
was +16 at NE - EESH. I put WAS +10 for this game, so unfortunately I am in total agreement with you. WAS has the best defense NE has faced so far, and here's a little tidbit... the last 2 games opposing running backs are AVERAGING 6 yards a carry. Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, how ya doing? Vegas is sick of NE beating spreads so they set it stupid high knowing that people would still bet on NE. Those bastards. You have to pick WAS to cover here. That is, if you are daring enough to bet this game. I am not.
gb +3 at DEN - GB had a bye week, so they've been gameplanning for two weeks. DEN is coming off a huge win vs PIT, so are they playing like they should have all along? Or was that a fluke and now they come back to earth against the 5-1 Packers? Tough to call - but I actually put GB -2 as my spread. In theory this should be an easy pick, then. However, I can't figure out these teams. DEN has a talented young QB, a strong TE, good running, decent wideouts, Dre Bly and Champ Bailey. Their weakness appears to be run defense. But wait, PIT has an awesome ground game and lost to DEN last week. And wait! GB has the 32nd ranked running game. So it's weakness vs. weakness. GBs defense is stout, so I am tempted to hang my hat on the fact that they will stop DEN's offense. BUT then again... PIT's defense is stout too! I'm gonna go look at game highlights and stats before making a call on this one...
Week 8 - Box's First Impressions - A Tidbit of Genius
This week's run down (pre ML lines):
MIA +9.5 v. NYG @Home
MIN +1 v. PHI @Home
DET +5 v. CHI Away
OAK +7.5 v. TEN Away
CAR +6.5 v. IND @Home
CLE -3 v. STL @Home
CIN +3.5 v. PIT @Home
BUF +3 v. NYJ Away
JAC +4 v. TB Away
HOU +9 v. SD Away
NO -2.5 v. SF Away
WAS +16 v. NE Away
GB +3 v. DEN Away
Initial reactions: hate the MIA pick, love the MIN pick, love the DET
pick. Unhappy with OAK, but it's possible I guess. Unlikely with
Young back in the saddle. Hate the CAR and WAS picks, IND and NE are just
unstoppable. CLE is a genius pick, the spread should be much higher
than -3 in my opinion. Though it is the return of Steven Jackson, so
that may account for the lower spread. CIN is a home dog pick, same
with CAR. The BUF v. NYJ won me money a few weeks ago, but now BUF is
at NYJ, so I don't like the pick as much. Vegas is saying it's a -6 if
BUF was at home, which is ludicrous to me. JAC is a great pick, and in
my opinion, it's the lock of the week assuming Gerrard is back (which
he's supposed to be). The IND/JAC game would have been totally
different with Gerrard in there. NO is a good pick as they seem to be
picking up steam, and GB is a great pick in my opinion, since I don't
think DEN should have beaten PIT (even though the box picked DEN last
week).
That's my quick rundown. I'm gonna lock in some bets now, including
(yes, I'm listening to the system) the WAS pick. Sigh. Goodbye
dollars.
MIA +9.5 v. NYG @Home
MIN +1 v. PHI @Home
DET +5 v. CHI Away
OAK +7.5 v. TEN Away
CAR +6.5 v. IND @Home
CLE -3 v. STL @Home
CIN +3.5 v. PIT @Home
BUF +3 v. NYJ Away
JAC +4 v. TB Away
HOU +9 v. SD Away
NO -2.5 v. SF Away
WAS +16 v. NE Away
GB +3 v. DEN Away
Initial reactions: hate the MIA pick, love the MIN pick, love the DET
pick. Unhappy with OAK, but it's possible I guess. Unlikely with
Young back in the saddle. Hate the CAR and WAS picks, IND and NE are just
unstoppable. CLE is a genius pick, the spread should be much higher
than -3 in my opinion. Though it is the return of Steven Jackson, so
that may account for the lower spread. CIN is a home dog pick, same
with CAR. The BUF v. NYJ won me money a few weeks ago, but now BUF is
at NYJ, so I don't like the pick as much. Vegas is saying it's a -6 if
BUF was at home, which is ludicrous to me. JAC is a great pick, and in
my opinion, it's the lock of the week assuming Gerrard is back (which
he's supposed to be). The IND/JAC game would have been totally
different with Gerrard in there. NO is a good pick as they seem to be
picking up steam, and GB is a great pick in my opinion, since I don't
think DEN should have beaten PIT (even though the box picked DEN last
week).
That's my quick rundown. I'm gonna lock in some bets now, including
(yes, I'm listening to the system) the WAS pick. Sigh. Goodbye
dollars.
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