Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Week 9 - Box's First Impressions - Simon Says Bet the Browns

And the box has spoken:

1. CLE -1 v. SEA @Home
2. MIN +7 v. SD @Home
3. TB -3.5 v. ARI@Home
4. ATL -3 v. SF @Home
5. DEN +3 v. DET Away
6. HOU +2 v. OAK Away
7. GB +2 v. KC Away
8. JAC +3.5 v. NO Away
9. PHI +3 v. DAL@Home
10. TEN -4 v. CAR @Home
11. NYJ +3.5 v. WAS @Home
12. BUF +1 v. CIN @Home
13. BAL +9 v. PIT Away
14. IND +5.5 v. NE @Home

Things to note: IND v. NE, the most hyped game of the last 10 years, is DEAD LAST in my averager (when averaging conviction, win percentage, and risk). Which is funny, since I thought it would be one of the TOP picks. Basically, the Box is saying this game will be SO CLOSE, that it's not even worth the risk of betting it.

That leaves me with a wacky top 5 of mediocre teams. The Box seems to love MIN, it picks them every week, and it loses every week. It also loves TB, and wins every week on TB. Or at least that's how it feels.

The Box has spoken. Kneel before it.

Week 9 - Vegas Spreads vs Capper Spreads, Cage Match

so Vegas and I agreed on quite a few of the games: I've listed their lines below, with my predictions tabbed to the right:

VEGAS .....................................THE MAD CAPPER...............DIFF.
was (-3.5)at NYJ............. was (-8)............. 4.5
gb (+1.5) at KC
.............. gb (-4).............. 5.5
ari (+3.5) at TB............. ari (+2)............. 1.5
car (+4) at TN............... car (+4)............. 0
sf (+2) at ATL............... sf (+3).............. 1.0
jax (+3) at NO............... jax (+4)............. 1.0
den (+3) at DET.............. den (+2)............. 1.0
cin (-1)at BUF
............... cin (-5)............. 4.0
sd (-7) at MIN
............... sd (-10)............. 3.0
sea (+1) at CLE
.............. sea (-5)............. 6.0
ne (-5.5) at IND............. ------- ............. ---
hou (+3) at OAK.............. hou (+2)............. 1.0
dal (-3) at PHI.............. dal
(-7)............. 4.0
bal (+9) at PIT.............. bal (+9)............. 0

The games in red are those where there is more than a 3 point differential between me and the Vegas line. These are the picks I will concentrate on for betting the spread. In order of conviction:

1. was (-3.5) at NYJ: I keep thinking the Jets are going to come around and be the team they were last year. And it just isnt' happening. Maybe Kellen Clemens sparks something in the second half of the year, but it won't be in his first start, and it won't be against a team as good as WAS, especially after they had their tails handed to them last week vs NE. I like Washington to win by atleast a touchdown.

2. sd (-7) at MIN: People have noticed that SD is back on track, right? And that MIN is struggling terribly? And the Chris Chambers trade hasn't gotten nearly the press it should have. Two years ago this would have been considered a blockbuster just short of the Randy Moss trade this year. Chambers may have been an idiot in MIA but he is the #1 receiver SD never had. Watch out. He's gonna open up that offense for his teammates, and make a few plays himself. This is one of the larger spreads this week, but I am confident that SD will roll over MIN like they should. I like SD by atleast 2 scores.

3. dal (-3) at PHI: I have a rule against betting games that involve teams with multiple personality disorder. PHI is absolutely one of these teams, so I'm breaking my own rule here. DAL is coming off their bye week, Romo got his contract, and PHI just isn't what it used to be. I like Dallas by two scores here.

4. gb (+1.5) at KC: I can't for the life of me figure out why week after week GB is either the 'dog or not forced to lay more points. They have continuously beaten the spread or upset their opponent. Is KC better than DEN? Is Arrowhead harder to play in than Mile High? Last week GB wins in OT with a +3 spread, this week they are at +1.5. Bet GB, they rarely fail.

5. cin (-1) at BUF: This one is a little more dificult. BUF is absolutely a team on the rise, and have beaten a lot of spreads this year, also. Trent Edwards' consistency seemed to spark the turnaround, however, and he's out, JP Losman is back in. I don't dislike JP, but when he's played, they've lost. Cincy... well they are like the Jets, any week it seems they could just snap out of it and hang 50 points on someone. I think this game ends up being close, but BUF can't pull it out.

6. sea (+1) at CLE: Another toughy. Picking against a hot CLE team at home seems risky. And it is. SEA has multiple personality disorder, too. Anything could happen here. In fact I just talked myself out of this game. I'm leaving it alone.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Week 9 - Capper's PreCap - Vegas Has Nothing on Me

This is how I would handicap week 9:

WAS - 8 at NYJ
GB -4 at KC
ARI +2 at TB -2
CAR +4 at TN
SF +2 at ATL
JAX +4 at NO
DEN +2 at DET
CIN -5 at BUF
SD -10 at MIN
SEA -3 at CLE
HOU +2 at OAK
DAL -7 at PHI
BAL +9 vs PIT

What does the box say?

Monday, October 29, 2007

Week 8 - Capper's Bet Results - All Hail GB

Keeping in stride with my Mad Capper avatar, I made the crazy decision to place a last minute bet on GB:

GB +2 at Den; and
GB +130 at Den

GBs overtime victory won both the moneyline bet and the spread bet, netting me some cash. Now I need to decide if I stick with my all-in philosophy of the last couple weeks or spread it out a little.

Week 8 - Box's Postgame - Discretion Is a Box's Best Friend

Sweeeet. The parlays saved my ass, really.

I think the best way the box will work is to bet it's top 3 spreads
week, it's top moneyline (taking into account the lay - it gives me the

highest conviction pick with the highest payout), and then one or two
"discretionary" parlays. The 3 team parlay was suggested by the box in

its entirety, and I liked the choices so I went with it. The 5 team
moneyline parlay was purely discretionary inasmuch as I looked over the

box's moneyline picks and chose the ones I liked the most - what I
thought were my "sure things". This way, I get to play a bit, but the
box does the heavy lifting.

Week 8 - Capper's Postgame - R.I.P. Mad Capper

I got your voicemail... congrats on your moneyline parlays!
interesting that you went with those since the box picks against the spread i
thought? What were the payouts on those bets?

As for me... TB pulled within 2 so that wasn't the game that screwed
me over. unbelievable that the giants went into prevent defense at the
end of that game and let mia march down the field and score that
garbage TD. that blew up my teaser by 1/2 point! half a frickin point.
unbelievable... that's what i get for putting all the eggs in the same
basket though.

This is too much fun to give up on, but I can't afford to keep losing
money like this... so... i've decided to keep betting low stakes
unless i get back ontop in a few weeks. i'll probably make 2-3 parlay bets
per week at $5 a piece. a couple wins can get me back in the game, and
a bunch of losses won't be a big deal.

Anyway, I'm gonna handicap next weeks game this morning before the
official lines come out.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Week 8 - Box's Results

Week 8 Final Results as follows:

Results for Week 8
Spread: CIN +3.5 (-105) v. PIT - $6.22 wins $0.00
Spread: NO -2.5 (-120) v. SF - $6.53 wins $11.97
Spread: WAS +16 (-110) v. NE - $7.25 wins $0.00
Moneyline: BUF (125) v. NYJ - $5.00 wins $11.25
Parlay: NO -2.5 (-120) v. SF, TEN (-350) v. OAK, IND (-300) v. CAR - $5.00 wins $15.71
Parlay: NO (-145) v. SF, TEN (-350) v. OAK, IND (-300) v. CAR, CLE (-165) v. STL, BUF (125) v. NYJ - $5.00 wins $52.34

Results for Week 8
Bet Totals: $35.00
Potential Winnings: $82.25
Potential Payouts: $91.27
Actual Profit: $56.27
%s: Week 8 160.77%

Friday, October 26, 2007

Week 8 - Teasers Explained

There are different levels of teaser. I have been using 6-point teasers, which means that in each of your bets in your parlay, the team you pick is given an extra 6 points. In each game one team gets all 6 points, so you can't pick and choose how many points to give to a team in each game, though that's kind of a cool idea.

Week 8 - Any Last Words? for the TB game, I totally agree with your analysis. JAX will pound the ball. TB has a good D, and they'll be able to stack the box against the one-dimensional offense. I also like that:

1. TB is at home.
2. The point spread on the teaser is TB +2.5, so even if they lose a close game, the bet still wins.
3. I just heard that MJD is hurt and probably won't play.

my other final choices were:

NO (+3.5) vs SF
GB (+9) vs DEN
DET (+11) vs CHI

I liked all those games, including the NO game you are banking on, but I am overly cautious this week since (in theory) i've used up my bankroll. My explanation for not picking the other 3 are that: NO has laid quite a few eggs this year, so that makes me nervous, DEN at home and coming off a big PIT win could suddenly start rolling, DET has multiple personality disorder against a CHI team that seems to have re-discovered itself. I think they're all good bets, but I went with my top 3 - all in, baby.

Your bets:

You've gotten interesting with the moneyline betting, including moneyline parlays. I tried them one week and got totally screwed, so I wrote them off... Have you had some luck with them? The BUF +125 seems like a great pick, I may have to load in an extra $20 to put on that game. Notice I completely shied away from that game on my teaser, going along with my completely paranoid 'trap game' theory.

Why oh why would you bet against New England? Didn't you read the article comparing the Pats to the Cobra Kai Yankees?

What are the payouts on your parlays? You've got a lot of heavily favored teams in there, so it would seem the payouts wouldn't be worth it...

There is indeed a ton of crossover on your parlays. Risky business if you ask me.

Week 8 - Capper's Final Bets

After careful consideration, my week 8 pick is in! I went with a 3
team teaser (6 points) for a payout of 9:5.

Indy (-0.5) over Car
NYG (-3.5) over Mia
TB (+2.5) over JAX

I've got my last $32.70 riding on this game, and a winner brings me
up to $90. Not so good considering I started with $180, but atleast
i'll be back in the game.

Week 8 - The Box Speaks, Commentary on Picks

Ooh, can't say I like the TB pick. It will be a purely defensive game,

and Jax will pound the ground since Gray is starting for Gerrard. I
think Jac will actually win this one. The other two are no brainers in

my opinion - though I would have taken the NYG points down to under -3
(if that's the way the teaser works? Or is it 2 per game?).

My picks went as follows:
I spent $35 of my $80 bankroll, I decided I can't be betting it all
every week since I run the risk of losing everything in one week.

CIN +3.5 v. PIT @Home
NO -2.5 v. SF Away
WAS +16 v. NE Away
Total: $20

BUF -125 v NYJ Away
Total: $5

IND -300 v CAR, TEN -350 v OAK, NO -2.5 v SF
BUF +125 v NYJ, CLE -165 v STL, IND -300 v CAR, TEN -350 v OAK, NO -145
v SF
Total: $10

The parlays were more fun bets, and the 5 team parlay was my picking my

top five favorite Box picks, so it's a combination of gut and stats. A

lot hinges on NO, since they're involved in 3 of my bets (including
parlays), but if NO loses all the way around, I can still break even
because I bet decent lays otherwise.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Week 8 - Box's Final Bets

Week 8 Final Bets per the Box are as follows:

Bets for Week 8
Spread: CIN +3.5 (-105) v. PIT - $6.22 to win $5.92
Spread: NO -2.5 (-120) v. SF - $6.53 to win $5.44
Spread: WAS +16 (-110) v. NE - $7.25 to win $6.59
Moneyline: BUF (125) v. NYJ - $5.00 to win $6.25
Parlay: NO -2.5 (-120) v. SF, TEN (-350) v. OAK, IND (-300) v. CAR - $5.00 to win $10.71
Parlay: NO (-145) v. SF, TEN (-350) v. OAK, IND (-300) v. CAR, CLE (-165) v. STL, BUF (125) v. NYJ - $5.00 to win $47.34

Bet Totals: $35.00
Potential Winnings: $82.25

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Week 8 - Capper's First Impressions - To Agree, or Not To Agree

OK, since I didn't get my pick in last week I am in the same predicament. Must pick my favorite winner, and go all in. I actually agreed with most of your picks this week, including WAS v NE (although I'm not crazy enough to bet this one):

MIA +9.5 v. nyg - I disagree with the box here. NYG are steamrolling teams right now and MIA looks like it wants to hide under a rock. They lost their starting QB, starting RB, and traded their #1 Wideout and TE. Zach Thomas is quoted as saying 'our defense stinks this year', Jason Taylor is quoted saying 'we are rebuilding, why is everyone afraid to say it?'. I'm considering making this my all-in pick, but the 9.5 spread is scaring me a little.

MIN +1 v. phi - You love this pick? I handicapped this game MIN +3, so I'm actually getting 2 less points than I wanted. Plus, I have a policy against betting games that involve multiple-personality teams. You just don't know which PHI team is gonna show up. It's not like they don't have the players, they are the same as last year. So why do they keep getting beat? I'm staying away.

det +5 at CHI - Agreement, but not with conviction. I handicapped this game at det +4, so I'm actually getting an extra point here, and the more I think about it there is every reason DET can win this game. I don't get the feeling CHI is ready to start rolling, they really haven't fixed any of their problems - can't run, can't stop the run, defensive injuries - BUT BUT BUT! Look what we have here! Another multiple personality team! DET regularly kills me by getting beat when they are supposed to win, and winning when they are supposed to lose. Yes, i like the big spread and think Chi is overrated but man DET scares me.

oak +7.5 at TEN - I'm agreeing with you and the box here. I handicapped the game at OAK +5, so Vegas is giving me 2.5 more points to play with. However, like you I am nervous about Young's return. TEN is home, and they seem to be a sleeper team. I don't know that they crush OAK, but I don't give the raiders a chance to pull this out. I think I'm too iffy to go all-in with this pick.

CAR +6.5 v. ind - This is the second game that I am considering for my all-in pick that goes against the box. I wouldn't bet on CAR with less than a 15 point spread - and Vegas put it at only 6.5! The Testaverde incident last week was a fluke in my opinion. Indy wins big.

cle -3 at STL - This seems to be the obvious game of the week... which makes me very very nervous. Why would the spread be so low? Surely the oddsmakers know that cleveland's offense has been putting up big points, and STL can't tie their shoelaces? What do they know that I don't? At first glance this is my #1 pick, the box agrees, you agree.... but there's something fishy going on. Every week there's one or two 'locks' that don't pan out - and for some reason Vegas knows it. Dr. Z fom SI calls this game 'the trap game' - his theory is that the oddsmakers know a lot more than anyone else, and since their goal is not to predict winners, but to get people to bet on the wrong team, every week they set a 'trap game' - by making a spread too good to be true. Dr. Z refuses to bet on these games. Similarly, Bill Simmons of page 2 says each week their is one 'obvious game' which he always bets against his gut. He doesn't blame Vegas
oddsmakers, but rather those evil gods Caprice and Whimsy. It is, of course, possible that I just need to sack up and make the bet.

CIN +3.5 v. pit - Disagreement here. CIN beating the Jets is only an indication of how low NYJ have fallen. CIN still has too many injuries, team disunity and let's not forget the steelers are gonna be pissed after losing to DEN last week. I handicapped this game at CIN +6.

buf +3 at NYJ - This also reeks of a Trap Game. Buffalo is 2-1 under their roookie QB, with the one loss being a great game vs DAL. The Jets keep finding ways to lose, and BUF already beat them once this year! You smell that? Do ya? TRAP! I'm staying far far far away from this game. My guess is with the Jets at home, Pennington playing to keep Clemens off the bench, and Mangini coaching for his life, NYJ pull an upset here.

jac +4 at TB - This is #3 that I am considering for my all-in pick despite what the box says. I hadicapped this one on the nose, but when I think about the game a bit more... Did you watch the MNF game? JAX's backup is a-w-f-u-l. I am pretty sure I saw him throw 4 incomplete passes in a row to WRs who ran hook patterns, and missed the target by 10 feet! The wideouts were standing still! I could have atleast thrown it near the guy's feet. As we noticed in week 2, TB is a real team, and even though they lost last week, Garcia's numbers are still great and they got beat by 4-2 DET. No shame in that.

hou +9 at SD - I agree with you here, but I'm not betting this game. SD doesn't even know what stadium they are playing in, but they are a hot team right now and definitely fit into the multiple personality category. FYI I handicapped it at HOU +6.

no -2.5 at SF - I handicapped this game at NO -5, so i agree with you and the box, here. NO seems to have gotten their act together, and SF looks plain awful. I am considering this game for my all-in pick. I am having trouble shaking off that foul smell from the beginning of the season though. Man, NO looked bad.

was +16 at NE - EESH. I put WAS +10 for this game, so unfortunately I am in total agreement with you. WAS has the best defense NE has faced so far, and here's a little tidbit... the last 2 games opposing running backs are AVERAGING 6 yards a carry. Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, how ya doing? Vegas is sick of NE beating spreads so they set it stupid high knowing that people would still bet on NE. Those bastards. You have to pick WAS to cover here. That is, if you are daring enough to bet this game. I am not.

gb +3 at DEN - GB had a bye week, so they've been gameplanning for two weeks. DEN is coming off a huge win vs PIT, so are they playing like they should have all along? Or was that a fluke and now they come back to earth against the 5-1 Packers? Tough to call - but I actually put GB -2 as my spread. In theory this should be an easy pick, then. However, I can't figure out these teams. DEN has a talented young QB, a strong TE, good running, decent wideouts, Dre Bly and Champ Bailey. Their weakness appears to be run defense. But wait, PIT has an awesome ground game and lost to DEN last week. And wait! GB has the 32nd ranked running game. So it's weakness vs. weakness. GBs defense is stout, so I am tempted to hang my hat on the fact that they will stop DEN's offense. BUT then again... PIT's defense is stout too! I'm gonna go look at game highlights and stats before making a call on this one...

Week 8 - Box's First Impressions - A Tidbit of Genius

This week's run down (pre ML lines):

MIA +9.5 v. NYG @Home
MIN +1 v. PHI @Home
DET +5 v. CHI Away
OAK +7.5 v. TEN Away
CAR +6.5 v. IND @Home
CLE -3 v. STL @Home
CIN +3.5 v. PIT @Home
BUF +3 v. NYJ Away
JAC +4 v. TB Away
HOU +9 v. SD Away
NO -2.5 v. SF Away
WAS +16 v. NE Away
GB +3 v. DEN Away

Initial reactions: hate the MIA pick, love the MIN pick, love the DET
pick. Unhappy with OAK, but it's possible I guess. Unlikely with
Young back in the saddle. Hate the CAR and WAS picks, IND and NE are just
unstoppable. CLE is a genius pick, the spread should be much higher
than -3 in my opinion. Though it is the return of Steven Jackson, so
that may account for the lower spread. CIN is a home dog pick, same
with CAR. The BUF v. NYJ won me money a few weeks ago, but now BUF is
at NYJ, so I don't like the pick as much. Vegas is saying it's a -6 if

BUF was at home, which is ludicrous to me. JAC is a great pick, and in

my opinion, it's the lock of the week assuming Gerrard is back (which
he's supposed to be). The IND/JAC game would have been totally
different with Gerrard in there. NO is a good pick as they seem to be
picking up steam, and GB is a great pick in my opinion, since I don't
think DEN should have beaten PIT (even though the box picked DEN last

That's my quick rundown. I'm gonna lock in some bets now, including
(yes, I'm listening to the system) the WAS pick. Sigh. Goodbye

Week 7 - Box's Postgame - Campbell's Chunky Returns

So I was up nice and big - to the tune of 80% - on my bets this past
week. Still haven't broken even from the previous two weeks, but I
found a nice way to lower my risk and my returns have been pretty good.
My big money was won on a parlay of ARI, CHI, and ATL. But I managed
to pick TEN correctly (which was ridiculously close) and I only missed
on my NYJ pick (and then just barely too).

All in all, a good week. This week though my worst fears came true:
the box says take WAS as my number one pick. It's just throwing my money
away... sigh. I did build in a new feature that tells me if the spread is a multiple of 7 or 3 or a combination (ie, 10), and therefore tells me that I need to bet swiftly to lock in a favorable spread (better to push than lose that half point).

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Week 7 - Box's Results

Week 7 Final Bets per the Box are as follows:

Results for Week 7
Spread: TB +2.5 (-110) v. DET - $5.03 wins $0.00
Spread: TEN -1 (-110) v. HOU - $7.72 wins $14.74
Spread: ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS - $5.00 wins $9.55
Moneyline: NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 wins $6.11
Parlay: NO (-450) v. ATL, ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS, TB (120) v. DET, NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 wins $0.00
Parlay: ATL +9 (-120) v. NO, ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS, CHI +5 (-110) v. PHI - $5.00 wins $33.41
Parlay: NO (-450) v. ATL, TB (120) v. DET, NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 wins $0.00

Results for Week 7
Bet Totals: $37.75
Potential Winnings: $83.46
Potential Payouts: $63.81
Actual Profit: $26.06
%s: Week 7 69.03%

Friday, October 19, 2007

Week 7 - I Agree With Your Assessments, Prepare for Apocolypse

agree with your assessments. All of them, in fact. I'm counting on
the fact that TEN def is actually good, BUF can put together a win at
home (a la the home dog pick of BUF over NYJ a few weeks ago), and NE
just stops caring about killing a 0-5 team. The NYG game I'm staying
away from, except to be NYG to win. I think AZ can pound the ground
with Edge better than it has been, and definitely will now that Rattay
is in. They'll force Rattay to make just enough plays to win, but this

game will be Edge v. WAS. I still admit it's a long shot, but if the
game goes to the ground, I don't see it as a 9 point lay.

I'm truly hoping for a PIT implosion, but with Hines Ward back, it
gonna happen. Maybe Shanahan has used the bye week to teach D? I hope

TB should be favored in this game, I agree. And KC too, especially
LJ picking it up (even if Priest has resumed backup duties).

In terms of choosing games that won bets v. picks, I've been betting on

losers and missing some winners - I need to find a way to truly gauge
how risky a pick is. Maybe I can use that variance score to do that...


Week 7 - Boxes Make Me Nervous

Wow, there are a few spread box games that make me nervous:

TEN (-1) @ HOU: VY is injured. HOU has a top ten rush defense. Shaub is real.

BUF (+3) vs BAL: I actually like Trent Edwards, but their offense scores no touchdowns. BAL, i think, is reguarly overrated, but I actually think their chances go up without McNair, who sadly is just not good anymore. I handicapped this game at BUF +6 prior to looking at the Vegas spreads.

MIA (+16.5) vs NE: Betting against NE = throwing away money.

SF (+9) @ NYG: I know this is a lot of points to lay, but these teams are going in opposite directions right now and I can definitely see NYG blow out SF at home.

ARI (+9) @ WAS: Similar situation as with sf vs nyg. backup quarterback, in this case it's Tim Rattay, and teams going in opposite directions. I can see WAS blowing them out at home.

DEN (+3) vs PIT: PIT has a top rushing attack, DEN has the #31 run defense. PIT looks like a top 3 team in all phases, DEN is tripping over itself. The only thing DEN has going is that the game is at Mile High. However, Indy went there and blew them out a couple weeks ago.

3. Spread box picks that I like:

TB (+2) @ DET: DET scares me, since you never know when they are going to put up 50 points. However, I agree with you here. I handicapped this game at TB -2, so I would have actually laid two points to bet TB in this game. Seeing them as the dog makes me happy.

KC (+3) @ OAK: KC has cost me a lot of money this year, playing spoiler. I bet against them in the SD game and the MIN game. They can definitely put a game together, and although I think OAK is on the rise, that means they'll beat bad teams, not good teams. I handicapped this game at KC -2, so once again I was pretty psyched to see KC as the dog.

4. All in! So if I stick with my all-in plan, i'm gonna pick between my top 3 favorites:

PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
TB (+2) @ DET
KC (+3) @ OAK

Week 7 - Box to Try a New Strategy; Win

Ha! I would say the all in strategy could be genius, except that if I
did that on my top picks in the last two weeks, I'd be all broke.

So I went back in the system, and rather than trying to rewrite the
magic, I decided the best thing to do was simplify my betting and
concentrate on which games won BETS rather than PICKS. It seemed like
an oxymoron to me, since if I pick right, I should win the bets, but
turns out I'm picking all the wrong games and all the wrong bets (bad
lays, bad picks, high volatility, and bad parlays).

I've also decided to bet $37.75 (arbitrary number) max or 75.5% of
anything less than $50. So even if my bankroll is $200, I'm only
betting $37.75 until I'm satisfied I can win consistently. Actually,
I'm at $200, I'll probably just break even. Sigh.

As for this week's picks, the system took ONE favorite this week. Just

one. So it's another dog day afternoon. Now it's a matter of taking
the cream of the picks. Here's the rotation (asterisks on bets I took):
(Manny up, 2 on, 2 out - sox are killing em 7-1 right now)

They Box Picks (spread):
TEN -1 Away **
BUF 3 Home
MIA 16.5 Home
ATL 9 Away
TB 2.5 Away **
SF 9 Away
ARI 9 Away **
KC 3 Away
NYJ 6 Away
MIN 9.5 Away
STL 8.5 Away
CHI 5 Away
DEN 3.5 Home
JAC 3 Home

Money Line:
NYG **

My Parlays:
ARI +9, CHI +5, ATL +9

Now, granted there is some duplication in my parlays. But I did a
historical parlay study now, and the payouts have been good - 6
weeks in a 30 week span (so about 80% profitable), and when I win, I
usually win big (a few 200+% weeks in there). But my next step is to
work into the system some sort of algorithm to bet the "underbet" games

- basically avoid marquee matchups and play low volume bets with nicer
payouts and lower volatility. But I have no idea how to do that yet.

My confidence equals zero right now, so we'll see how this turns out.

Week 7 - First Impressions - Break the Bank

1. So what did you mean by choosing games that won bets instead of picks? I didn't really follow the difference.

2. Wow, there are a few spread box games that make me nervous:

TEN (-1) @ HOU: VY is injured. HOU has a top ten rush defense. Shaub is real.

BUF (+3) vs BAL: I actually like Trent Edwards, but their offense scores no touchdowns. BAL, i think, is reguarly overrated, but I actually think their chances go up without McNair, who sadly is just not good anymore. I handicapped this game at BUF +6 prior to looking at the Vegas spreads.

MIA (+16.5) vs NE: Betting against NE = throwing away money.

SF (+9) @ NYG: I know this is a lot of points to lay, but these teams are going in opposite directions right now and I can definitely see NYG blow out SF at home.

ARI (+9) @ WAS: Similar situation as with sf vs nyg. backup quarterback, in this case it's Tim Rattay, and teams going in opposite directions. I can see WAS blowing them out at home.

DEN (+3) vs PIT: PIT has a top rushing attack, DEN has the #31 run defense. PIT looks like a top 3 team in all phases, DEN is tripping over itself. The only thing DEN has going is that the game is at Mile High. However, Indy went there and blew them out a couple weeks ago.

3. Spread box picks that I like:

TB (+2) @ DET: DET scares me, since you never know when they are going to put up 50 points. However, I agree with you here. I handicapped this game at TB -2, so I would have actually laid two points to bet TB in this game. Seeing them as the dog makes me happy.

KC (+3) @ OAK: KC has cost me a lot of money this year, playing spoiler. I bet against them in the SD game and the MIN game. They can definitely put a game together, and although I think OAK is on the rise, that means they'll beat bad teams, not good teams. I handicapped this game at KC -2, so once again I was pretty psyched to see KC as the dog.

4. All in! So if I stick with my all-in plan, i'm gonna pick between my top 3 favorites:

PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
TB (+2) @ DET
KC (+3) @ OAK

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Week 7 - Box's Final Bets

Week 7 Final Bets per the Box are as follows:

Bets for Week 7
Spread: TB +2.5 (-110) v. DET - $5.03 to win $4.57
Spread: TEN -1 (-110) v. HOU - $7.72 to win $7.02
Spread: ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS - $5.00 to win $4.55
Moneyline: NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 to win $1.11
Parlay: NO (-450) v. ATL, ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS, TB (120) v. DET, NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 to win $26.37
Parlay: ATL +9 (-120) v. NO, ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS, CHI +5 (-110) v. PHI - $5.00 to win $28.41
Parlay: NO (-450) v. ATL, TB (120) v. DET, NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 to win $11.43

Bet Totals: $37.75
Potential Winnings: $83.46

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Week 6 - Box's Results

Rough week - went spread only, still got hurt. Sigh.

Results for Week 6
Spread: HOU +6.5 (-110) v. JAC - $5.37 wins $0.00
Spread: DAL +5 (-110) v. NE - $5.00 wins $0.00
Spread: OAK +9.5 (-110) v. SD - $7.90 wins $0.00
Spread: NO +6.5 (-110) v. SEA - $5.68 wins $10.84
Spread: MIA +4.5 (-110) v. CLE - $5.00 wins $0.00

Results for Week 6
Bet Totals: $28.95
Potential Winnings: $26.32
Potential Payouts: $10.84
Actual Profit: -$18.11
%s: Week 6 -62.56%

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Week 6 - Box's Final Bets

Final bets locked for Week 6:

Bets for Week 6
Spread: HOU +6.5 (-110) v. JAC - $5.37 to win $4.88
Spread: DAL +5 (-110) v. NE - $5.00 to win $4.55
Spread: OAK +9.5 (-110) v. SD - $7.90 to win $7.18
Spread: NO +6.5 (-110) v. SEA - $5.68 to win $5.16
Spread: MIA +4.5 (-110) v. CLE - $5.00 to win $4.55

Bet Totals: $28.95
Potential Winnings: $26.32

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Week 6 - Vegas Missed

Vegas really missed their spreads this week. I should have gotten back on the horse early, several of my favorites are getting hit. I can't believe you got in the NE game at -5. Wait, you bet against them? well i hate to tell you they have been sliding and after opening at -4.5 they are at -6 right now. You should check out the 'trends' section of sportsbook. tells ya what percentage of bets is being placed where.

so far i like:

1. (-3) nyg over atl
2. (-6) ne over dal
3. (-5.5) chi over min
4. (+3) was over GB
5. (+9.5) stl over bal

I think my bets are gonna be a hodge-podge this week

Week 6 - Box's First Impressions - Depression

This just in: Week 5 = terrible.

I decided to go the simple way: top 5 games against the spread. I
already placed the bets, keeping it simple. Last week, my top 5 were
2-3. The rest of my games were 1-8. Ridiculous.

So, I bet on the following:

1. OAK +9.5 @ SD
2. NO +6.5 @ SEA
3. HOU +6.5 @ JAC
4. DAL +5 v. NE
5. MIA +4.5 @ CLE

All dogs, most on the road. I expect to go a solid 0-5, but I'm
sticking with simple bets from here out. If nothing else, at least I
won't feel like I beat myself. My parlays (I did 3 last week) lost me
$15, plus the moneyline payouts aren't very good. So I'm sticking with
the spread picks that are the highest win %s.


Sunday, October 7, 2007

Week 5 - Box's Results

Worst. Week. Ever.

Results for Week 5
Spread: DET +3.5 (-110) v. WAS - $6.78 wins $0.00
Spread: ARI -3.5 (-110) v. STL - $11.94 wins $0.00
Spread: MIA +5 (-110) v. HOU - $9.20 wins $17.56
Spread: NO -3 (-125) v. CAR - $6.30 wins $0.00
Spread: TB +10 (-115) v. IND - $6.42 wins $0.00
Spread: DEN -1 (-115) v. SD - $19.29 wins $0.00
Spread: GB -3 (-130) v. CHI - $10.07 wins $0.00
Moneyline: ARI (-190) v. STL - $7.46 wins $11.39
Moneyline: GB (-180) v. CHI - $7.54 wins $0.00
Parlay: DEN -1 (-115) v. SD, ARI -3.5 (-110) v. STL, GB -3 (-130) v. CHI - $6.00 wins $0.00
Parlay: MIA (200) v. HOU, DAL (-600) v. BUF, GB (-180) v. CHI - $6.00 wins $0.00
Parlay: PIT (-250) v. SEA, NO -3 (-125) v. CAR, DET +3.5 (-110) v. WAS, DEN -1 (-115) v. SD, ARI (-190) v. STL - $5.79 wins $0.00

Results for Week 5
Bet Totals: $102.79
Potential Winnings: $200.89
Potential Payouts: $28.95
Actual Profit: -$73.84
%s: Week 5 -71.84%

Saturday, October 6, 2007

Week 5 - Box's Final Bets

Ridiculous amount of bets this week. Feeling good...

Bets for Week 5
Spread: DET +3.5 (-110) v. WAS - $6.78 to win $6.16
Spread: ARI -3.5 (-110) v. STL - $11.94 to win $10.85
Spread: MIA +5 (-110) v. HOU - $9.20 to win $8.36
Spread: NO -3 (-125) v. CAR - $6.30 to win $5.04
Spread: TB +10 (-115) v. IND - $6.42 to win $5.58
Spread: DEN -1 (-115) v. SD - $19.29 to win $16.77
Spread: GB -3 (-130) v. CHI - $10.07 to win $7.75
Moneyline: ARI (-190) v. STL - $7.46 to win $3.93
Moneyline: GB (-180) v. CHI - $7.54 to win $4.19
Parlay: DEN -1 (-115) v. SD, ARI -3.5 (-110) v. STL, GB -3 (-130) v. CHI - $6.00 to win $31.89
Parlay: MIA (200) v. HOU, DAL (-600) v. BUF, GB (-180) v. CHI - $6.00 to win $26.67
Parlay: PIT (-250) v. SEA, NO -3 (-125) v. CAR, DET +3.5 (-110) v. WAS, DEN -1 (-115) v. SD, ARI (-190) v. STL - $5.79 to win $73.70

Bet Totals: $102.79
Potential Winnings: $200.89

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Week 5 - Final Bets

Yesterday I actually typed the following words into Google:

"How to become a bookie"

Now here's some information I found interesting. If you go to ****.com and click on 'trends', it will show you the spreads, lays and what the percentage breakdown of each game's betting is. That is, how many people are betting on ATL to cover +8. As you know, the spread is designed to induce 50% of betters to wager on each side, that way the house takes a consistent paycheck. When one side is being bet on lopsided-like, they adjust the spreads to induce more people to bet the other way. So check this out (your rank in parentheses, lower case where I picked against the box, *asterick when I picked with the box against my gut):

1 GB -3 v. CHI (5) - 92%

2 TB +10 v. IND (4) - 27%

3 ARI -3 @ STL (6) - 93%

4 DET +3.5 @ WAS (2) - 64%

5 SEA +6 @ PIT (8) - 51%

6 dal -10 over buf (9) - 97%

7 nyg -3 over nyj (12) - 93%

8 *NO -3 over CAR (3) - 81%

9 ATL +8 over TEN (1) - 31%

10 *KC +2 over JAX (7) - 52%

11 MIA +5.5 @ HOU (11) - 15%

12 sd over den (13) - 50%

13 ne over cle (10) - 84%

14 *BAL -3 @ SF - 87%

Seeing all those 80%-99% trends kinda freaked me out last night, so I rushed to lock in my parlays before the spreads changed. Actually the NYG v. NYJ game started at -3 and moved to -3.5 already, so that already cost me. If the Giants win by 3 I'm gonna be pissed. Anyway my parlays are locked in:

[GB - TB - ARI]
[GB - DET - SEA]
[TB - DAL - NYG]
[ARI - NO - ATL]
[GB - TB - ARI - SEA - DET - DAL]

On to my moneyline underdog strategy:

Actually the moneylines I listed are the bonus payouts for betting the underdog, so i am really excited:

> 1. TB +10 v. IND (+450) = 4.5-1 payout

> 2. DET +3.5 @ WAS (+165) = 1.65-1 payout

> 3. SEA +6 @ PIT (+200) = 2-1 payout

> 4. *KC +2 over JAX (+115) = 1.15-1 payout

> 5. ATL +8 over TEN (+320) = 3.2-1 payout

These are all underdogs that the box picked to cover the spread. I've
actually locked in all of these bets except ATL vs TEN. I really don't
see atlanta upsetting TEN, so I think i am gonna change it out with SD
over DEN. So far, this game's moneylines have been 'off' though. So
we'll see. I actually feel pretty good that 2 or three will upset,
especially DET and SEA. And I've gotta tell you, the TB vs IND game
has upset written all over it. Indy just lost their 2 main run
defenders: Rob Morris (LB out for the year) and Bob Sanders (S).
Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai also didn't finish the game last
week. Here comes TB, fired up to play the Champs with a power running
game and a high ranked defense. Garcia's no slouch either. I'm not
saying they should be favored, but I think this is a great upset
opportunity and a huge payout.


Week 5 - Getting Ridiculous Lays, Final Bets

Sweet, I just finished a cleaner betting "interface". I'll add the
parlay bit again maybe for next week, I'm going to have to take tomorrow
off from the box in order to catch up on the job that actually PAYS me.

The moneylines are RIDICULOUS. IND +450?? You could win $1.11 on a
minimum $5.00 bet?? Why on earth bet the game? The payout on TB should
be -450 to make it worth betting on TB. I have to enter the lay on the
moneylines so I can see potentials, that will have to happen tomorrow.

I've decided this week to go with 2 spread conviction picks, 3 spread
win percentage picks, 1 moneyline conviction pick, 1 moneyline win
percentage pick, and 1 mixed 4 team parlay. Here's what I'm feeling now:

Spread Convictions:
1. ARI -3
2. DEN -1

Spread Win Percentage:
1. ATL +8
2. DET +3.5
3. TB +10

Moneyline Conviction:
1. NE - the lay on this will be stupid, may have to drop to the second
or third level pick

Moneyline Win Percentage:
1. DAL - see above, may have to move down the charts

4 Team Mix Parlay:
ARI (spread) - DEN (spread) - ATL (spread) - DAL (or replacement pick on

That's my current thinking, though I'm undecided about how best to
attack it. Right now, I have to pretend to sleep instead of thinking
about this. I'm totally obsessed. My bets will be in early this week,
probably tomorrow night, because I'll be away this weekend. Still get
email on my blackberry, so I'll be able to watch your progress.

We should honestly start a biz handicapping all day. I could do this
for a living.


Week 5 - A New Strategy: Bet the Dog?

New Betting Strategy:

This came together when I realized a few things:

-Your single-game bets cover some damage, and can net you a small profit.
-Moneyline underdogs payout more than 1-1.
-I have picked 9 out of 12 underdogs correctly this year (75%).
-A lot of underdogs have been winning this year.

So, In effort to cover my parlays, and still have some decent payoffs, I've decided to bet my top 5 underdogs as single-game bets with the moneyline, along with my usual parlay system, which has paid out the last 2 weeks. I also will not be hedging, i want to avoid betting against myself.

Using my current rankings, my bets would look like this:


1. TB +10 v. IND
2. DET +3.5 @ WAS
3. SEA +6 @ PIT
4. *KC +2 over JAX
5. ATL +8 over TEN

Since each of these games pays out more than 1-1, in reality I only need to hit 2 of them to push, and if i keep pace this year I would take down 3-4 each week, which would give me a small profit, and some cover for my parlays, which pay out big when they hit. I'm very curious to see when the moneylines come out for this week, and see what the potential winnings would be.

I'm sticking with my 5 parlay system for the other half of my bets.



Week 5 - Look Out World, We Agree!

Ok so we actually agreed on 8 of the 14 games this week, and my goal was to make sure I got most of them into my top 9, so they make it into my parlays. I kept my top 3 games in their slots, since you agreed with a fairly high win %. In case your curious, the games in caps are those we agreed on, those in lower case are ones i substituted my pick over the box, and those with an *asterick are ones I went with the box over my initial pick.

1 GB -3 v. CHI (5)

2 TB +10 v. IND (4)

3 ARI -3 @ STL (6)

4 DET +3.5 @ WAS (2)

5 SEA +6 @ PIT (8)

6 dal -10 over buf (9)

7 nyg -3 over nyj (12)

8 *NO -3 over CAR (3)

9 ATL +8 over TEN (1)

10 *KC +2 over JAX (7)

11 MIA +5.5 @ HOU (11)

12 sd over den (13)

13 ne over cle (10)

14 *BAL -3 @ SF

So of the games we disagree on, here are my comments:

6 dal -10 over buf (9): I think you should reconsider this one, although it's your #9, so you probably won't bet it. You like buffalo because dallas has unexposed flaws, and because buf is a home dog. I say Dallas has no flaws that Buffalo is going to exploit. This reminds me of the NE vs BUF game last week, where the big spread is a little alarming, but in the end you need to keep in mind that the top teams are destroying the little teams, not barely squeaking by. Buf still has no defense, so it's weakness vs strength there.

7 nyg -3 over nyj (12) : The Jets, the Chargers, and the Saints are the three teams this year who, like you said, I keep waiting to suddenly "show up". Hence I am not that cofident about this game. However, the Jets haven't proven anything yet, and are coming off a terrible loss vs. buffalo. On the other hand the Giants are hot right now, coming off two big wins vs. WAS and PHI.

8 *NO -3 over CAR (3): So you think the Saints are gonna "show up" this week, eh? I'm switching my pick for you buddy. I like CAR because of what I said Monday - strong running game, and big play threat from S. Smith is a Strength against NO's lack of run defense and propensity to get beat with the long ball. DelHomme being out definitely plays into NO's hand, so I can see that. Plus the 2 weeks of gameplanning, reflection and time to get on track. Plus their home. It's go time for Reggie Bush. He can't be the clever trick play guy anymore since Deuce "2nd round fantasy bust" McAllister is gone for the year.

10 *KC +2 over JAX (7): I can see this game going either way. I am not even sure why I picked JAX the first time... mainly because KC hasn't beaten anyone that hasn't hurt themselves yet I suppose. Anyway, this is your #7, KC's at home, they are on a winning streak... I'm with you, buddy.

12 sd over den (13): Yeah this is my version of the "show up" game. You know what I'm gonna say, so I'll just leave it be.

13 ne over cle (10): You said it - bettng against NE is throwing money away.

14 *BAL -3 @ SF: I anti-heart this game and am staying miles away. You like Baltimore? fine you talked me into it.

...coming soon! the new betting strategy...


Week 5 - The Box Picks the Games, Nose


And you will like many of them, actually. I've started using my Win %
over my conviction, as it actually seems to be winning more (of course
it is, it's WIN percentage). But here are the picks (I have been
overhauling the "Betting" section of the box so that it's easy to use, I
keep adding pieces to it and it's impossible to read):

in order of win %
1 ATL +8 @ TEN
2 DET +3.5 @ WAS
3 NO +3 v. CAR
4 TB +10 v. IND
5 GB +3 v. CHI
6 ARI -3 @ STL
7 KC +2 v. JAC
8 SEA +6 @ PIT
9 BUF +10 v. DAL
10 CLE +16.5 @ NE
11 MIA +5.5 @ HOU
12 NYJ +3.5 @ NYG
13 DEN -1 v. SD
14 BAL -3 @ SF

We have a bunch of agreements, and a couple of toss up games I think. I
am liking the top 3 picks right off the bat: ATL is better than the 8
their getting, DET is flat out a better team than WAS (since DET's real
issue is the D, and WAS's real issue is the O, it's strength against
strength and DET is just better than WAS's D), and NO is coming off a
bye to a hurt CAR team AND they're at home. This week will be Drew
Brees' "statement week" I think, where he throws for 4 TDs and laughs at
the camera afterwards.

The TB pick is another good one, but it's tough to pick against IND any
time their at home. I just think Babyface Gruden can't perform under
pressure of a real opponent - TB will be great in their weak ass
division and the weak ass NFC, but against one of the top teams in the
NFL? It's no wonder TB is my LAST convicted pick, despite the number 4
being such a high win percentage.

We both like GB, especially at home, and we both like ARI. The box
likes KC, and I know exactly why: JAC is terribly inconsistent,
especially against weaker teams. This game is middle of the pack for
the box, both on win % and conviction, so I'm staying away from it.
SEA, I think, is a great pick. That said, it's low on my win % and
conviction rate (almost last), so I'm staying away when I bet. BUF i
think is a great bet this week, at home (should be colder this weekend,
too), against a great DAL team that I think has unexposed flaws right
now. CLE is an obvious pick, just because it's such a big spread - I'm
staying far far away from it, since betting against NE is like giving
away money.

Jets/Giants to me is a toss up game - depending on which Eli Manning
shows up, whether or not Tommy Jones can run for more than 10 feet.
Since it is essentially a home game for both of them, I like the Jets.
I think they're better coached and more capable - they just need to shut
down Plaxico. DEN, I think, is a lock. They are number 2 on my
convictions (number 1 going to ARI), and I love that the spread is so
low. Everyone's afraid that SD will "show up" some week, but the fact
is, Norv Turner is to winning what cryptonite is to Supermen (yes,
multiple men). 1st and goal on the 5 against KC, what do they do?
Pass, pass, pass, FG. Where was LT? On the SIDELINE FOR TWO OF THE
PLAYS, then he BLOCKED for the other one!!! You have the leagues TOP
SCORER from last year blocking??? Norv is a total mo, he deserves to
lose, and any team that fires a 14-2 coach should never have the right
to go to the playoffs again. I hope Shanahan chews em up.

BAL is an interesting pick as a favorite, especially with the cross
country travel, but I can't see SF scoring any points. WIth a last name
so close to "Dillhole", I can't see Trent Dilfer driving at all. If BAL
can stop Gore, which is their only weapon, this game shouldn't be much
of a game.

And that's the quick rundown. I'll get into more this week, I honestly
feel like I have 3 jobs right now. I heart football.


Week 5 - First Impressions - Early Lines are Like Christmas

OK, the lines actually got in early this week, so here's my first impression, in order of conviction:

1. GB over CHI (-3) - Green Bay is one of my few winners all year. They keep winning and covering. CHI is not playing well, and they have 4 new starters in their secondary. Sounds like a good day for Favre to me.

2. TB over IND (+10) - IND as we know is awesome. However, this week's injury bug includes Bob Sanders, Marvin Harrison, and two other defensive starters. IND also struggles (relatively speaking) against teams with power running games and good defenses. Sounds a lot like Tampa. Cadillac being injured sucks, but Pittman is a solid backup and he ran well last week. I love taking the 10 points here.

3. ARI over STL (-3) - For some reason I am still scared of STL. Must be ghosts from the Mike Martz years, because they have played horribly, are injured all up and down the O Line, lost S Jackson, and Bulger is playing with broken ribs. Arizona on the other hand is playing well, Exhibit A being their upset of PIT last week.

4. NYG over NYJ (-3.5) - Both teams are essentially home, here. I don't know what to think about the Jets anymore. Last year a young playoff team, this year some good additions, and they can't put together a win against Buffalo, and squeak past Miami. G-men seem to have found their swagger, and Manning is quietly having a solid year.

5. SEA over PIT (+6) - What to do about Pittsburgh? Getting beat by Arizona hurts, but they looked great the 3 weeks before that. Of course that was against CLE, BUF, and SF. Seattle's a solid team, and I am pretty psyched they are 6 point dogs.

6. DAL over BUF (-10) - Dallas is destroying teams right now. Buffalo is still too banged up and inexperienced to be taken seriously. So far the big 3 (NE, IND, DAL) have been covering the big spreads all year.

7. NE over CLE (-16.5) - The box is going to disagree with me here. Using the same logic as with Dallas, NE hasn't let me down yet.

8. CAR over NO (+3) - This one is interesting. CAR lost DelHomme for a while to injury, so Carr is in. NO is getting off their bye week, so maybe they'll be back on track, and it doesn't hurt to have 2 weeks to gameplan. Having said all that, NO gets beat by running teams and deep threats. I submit DeShaun Foster and Steve Smith. Plus I get 3 points.

9. DET over WAS (+3.5) - This game could go either way I think. If DET gets off to a fast start, Campbell is going to have to air it out to catch up, which could lead to mistakes and gets them out of their Joe Gibbs - running attack game. If WAS controls the clock and plays tight D, they could just as easily win this one. WAS is also coming off a bye week. However, I figure if WAS wins it will be close, so I'll take the points.

10. JAX over KC (-2) - All of a sudden KC looks like a complete team. Bowe is the real deal, and Huard has been utilizing a combination of him and Gonzalez well the last two weeks (both wins). Not to mention L. Johnson is still on the team and has yet to break out. The defense looked intense this week against San Diego, also. Having said all that, though... San Diego was way up in that game, then Rivers just played horribly. They forgot to run the ball in the second half, and had a lot of negative plays. Their other win was a squeaker against lowly MIN. Jacksonville is a conservative team that won't give the game away, plus they've had 2 weeks to heal and gameplan.

11. SD over DEN (+1) - SD still scares me. DEN doesn't impress me. I'll take them as a dog against a weaker opponent still.

12. SF over BAL (+3) - Honestly, I don't like either team, so I'm taking the points.

13. MIA over HOU (+5.5) - At first I picked HOU. But I dunno... They got beat by ATL last week, and this is a big spread for a poor team to cover. Plus, I kinda get the feeling MIA is due.

14. ATL over TN (+8) - I like TN to win here, but 8 points seems like a lot for them. Harrington played well two weeks in a row, so maybe he's finally getting comfortable in the system. Basically at the bottom here, i'm just taking the dogs 'cause i don't trust the favorites.

OK, I'm looking forward to the box's analysis. I've been impressed so far, so minus a substitution or two I'm sticking with you all the way.


Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Week 5 - CIN + Linebackers = NE Mauling

Well I did the sensible thing and did not throw down any further money on the pats in attempts to cover my losses from sunday. Then it turns out Maroney is a scratch, so I'm feeling pretty good about my decision. Then the bengals lose every linebacker but two to injury. they played in a dime defense the whole game... then i felt dumb. then i watched the pats rack up the points again. then i saw the final score... and then i drank.

So what do you figure the spread on NE vs CLE is? -20? Actually I can see them giving CLE about the same spread as CIN, in which case I am betting the hell out of the pats.

Looking at your bets, I feel your pain on PIT. i had a four team parlay that blew up because of them. Would have paid off $100.

On to your comments for week 5:

DET +3.5 @ WAS - I currently hate WAS for blowing everything they should
win. Joe Gibbs needs to be put in a home by now, his old school style
is killing my box.

-->WAS has been killing me also. Once betting against them and once betting with them. Here's the thing, though... after seeing the Giants destroy Philly... maybe we shouldn't be too hard on the skins. They just might be the better team in this game.

TB +10 @ IND - this will be a pick I hate to make on the box, but the
box will pick it.

-->You know, I don't mind taking TB here at all. They are my new best friend. Cadillac went down for the year, but they have Pittman backing up, who I actually like. I'm pretty sure Indy lost 3-4 defensive starters last week, too.

SD @ DEN -1 - how on earth is this only -1? DEN in Mile High?? Against
the terrible Chargers? Even Jay Cutler should have a field day.

-->This game scares me. Well mostly it's the chargers that scare me. Are they imploding and will lose 14 games this year? possibly. Also just as likely that they get proud and start smacking teams around.

DAL @ BUF +10 - this will be a home dog pick and DAL's first real
challenge as a cross conference game. If the Bills get a little
healthier, I think they even have a shot to upset.

-->The big spreads have been covering this year. Especially when it's Indy, NE and DAL. I believe none of those teams have missed yet. I think this might be a trap bet. BUF upset NYJ this week, so it's going to be fresh in peoples minds that they can win. This doesn't change the fact that they have tons of injuries, and a rookie QB against a Dallas team that is clicking on 12 cylinders right now. I like Dallas here, I think. Then again, every team i've declared god-awful has made a comeback to make me look silly. first it was KC, then it was CLE, I trashed the Bills last week and they upset the jets. maybe the spite gods are coming after me again?


Week 5 - Matty's Naked Picks

Clearly, my spread abilities are better than my parlay abilities. That
said, $5 to win $48 on the 4 team moneyline parlay seems like worthy odds...

I don't have the stats for the Box to give me picks yet, but we'll see
how far I veer from what the box will say about the early spreads:

JAC @ KC +2 - a classic home dog pick here, the box will love it.
Frankly, so do I - Jags have a long history of playing down to weaker
opponents. The spread is pretty small, though, I'm hoping early bets
pump it up a point.

DET +3.5 @ WAS - I currently hate WAS for blowing everything they should
win. Joe Gibbs needs to be put in a home by now, his old school style
is killing my box.

TB +10 @ IND - this will be a pick I hate to make on the box, but the
box will pick it.

SD @ DEN -1 - how on earth is this only -1? DEN in Mile High?? Against
the terrible Chargers? Even Jay Cutler should have a field day.

DAL @ BUF +10 - this will be a home dog pick and DAL's first real
challenge as a cross conference game. If the Bills get a little
healthier, I think they even have a shot to upset.


Monday, October 1, 2007

Week 4 - Postgame Analysis

You know, I watched upset after upset go down, and got really frustrated, until i realized I actually did ok. The big loser was the moneyline betting. When the upsets hit, the moneylines just fell apart. Seeing as the payouts on winning the moneylines are so low, i am tempted to scrap the whole thing and stick with the spreads, especially considering that although over the 14 games this weekend I only got 5 right (possibly 6 with NE v CIN tonight), I don't bet all the games, only my top 9, and all 5 (or 6) were in my parlays. The parlay system I use did what it is supposed to, and pulled out one winner, which covered all the other losers, plus netted me a small profit. Pretty good for an off week. Unfortunately I got killed in the moneylines, so netted a 50% loss this week... terrible.

Week 4 comments:

PHI vs NYG - man this was a killer. I got your text about westbrook, but honestly i doubt it would have mattered. 12 sacks? Just plain awful. Taking the season as a whole it looks like the DET game was a fluke last week. I'm very anti Philly right now.

NYJ vs BUF - wtf? I know you had buffalo covering, but i don't get this one. This was my #2 pick this week, and it hit me really hard. Cost me 3 parlays. Lesson learned - my top 3 from now on will include picks that the box and I agree on, with a possibility of one replacement.

BAL vs CLE - again, wtf? again, i know you had cle covering, and yeah, i don't get it. Apparently I need to rethink these two teams the rest of the year. Suddenly CLE is 2-2, and has covered the spread 3 weeks straight. Meanwhile Baltimore is 2-2, and isn't covering spreads. Squeaking past NYJ, ARI, and losing to CLE and CIN is telling me to pick against these guys from now on.

OAK vs MIA - ok, we both picked correctly here, but the idea to hedge and pick MIA in the moneyline was not a good one. Hedging with parlays is a terrible idea, it seems, since you are likely to lose one of the parlays. It's hard enough to pick several teams to win in a group. Of course, if I had hit the middle I would be shouting how great an idea it was....

ARI vs PIT - Arizona is a spread buster. This week the upset PIT, last week they covered vs. BAL, Week 2 they upset SEA, and Week 1 they almost beat SF. I'm upgrading these guys, much like I did with TB this week.

TB vs. CAR - this one worked out great. You and I both liked this game, upgraded them from earlier in the year and now.... crap! Cadillac is out with a knee injury. What to do with them next week?

So I'm not sure if you bet the way you you sent out in your last email, but if you did, it looked like you got beat up trying to hedge those games. You correctly picked OAK, TB, and ARI to cover. Unfortunately they all upset and you would have lost your hedge bet on the moneyline, yielding a negative... Are you going to stick with the hedging?

Final thought... I am so pissed about the moneyline thing I am tempted to throw down $25 on the pats to cover tonight. Then I think... I may have a gambling problem.


Week 4 - Postgame Analysis, Breaking Even Is for Suckers

Hahaha... you are in the grips of the evil gambling monster I call Gamblore.

I am in total agreement about the moneyline. Maybe in the long run the
hedge scheme would work, especially if I concentrated on figuring the
payout schemes, but in the end, it's just too much work for too little
money. If I picked just the spreads this week, I would have broken
even. Instead, I got fancy, and I lost 15%. If I win both bets tonight
(CIN to cover, NE to win), I'll almost break even. Totally worthless.

Week 4 Box commentary:

The good:

Un-fucking-believable how right on the box is with these picks. All of
them were home dogs. All of them WON, much less covered. Home dogs
went 6-2 this week on my system, and 7-1 if my system had picked NYG (it
predicted a 3.1 spread, not 3.0, so it BARELY chose PHI). 7 and
freaking 1. If I had bet home dogs down the line, I would be up HUGE
(almost 100%). This is a pattern going back 2 years, too, so I really
like it once the season gets in sway and the pattern re-emerges. In
terms of team by team, I think all the above teams are losers for the
most part. TB is still overrated in my mind, since they lost to a
mediocre SEA, and beat the terrible NO, STL, and CAR, none of whom can
string together a win. Next week they play IND, then we'll see how good
they really are.

BUF and CLE will always hang around - they, like JAC, tend to play up or
down to their competition. BUF will get blown out for most of the year,
and CLE will be just annoying enough to be 8-8 or 7-9 this year. ATL,
ARI, and DET are total wildcards - depending on what kind of pasta they
ate the night before or how much fairy dust they sprinkle on themselves,
they will win or lose like champs or like they've never seen a football.

The bad:

I know Peyton's good, but that was just a terrible performance by DEN.
How do you run for 160 yards in the FIRST HALF and don't score? They
had to settle for FGs twice, and if they could get in the endzone, it's
a different game. Plus, the D just looked tired. With SD, I knew they
were worse this season, but KC??? Both of us didn't like that the box
picked KC to win, despite picking SD on the spread (an oxymoron, but SD
to cover was a "mean regression override" module, it would have picked
KC to cover if it wasn't overridden). But KC? Herm Edwards and Norv
Turner are far and away the worst head coaches in the NFL - I figured
between the two of them on the same field, the better team should win
handily. But that was ugly. MIN has the third worst coach in Bam
Childress, and he was in full form against the Pack. Three times he
punted from GB territory - and it took GB 5 plays to get to where the
ball was originally punted. Not to mention punting on the GB 48 yd line
while LOSING in the 4th quarter by a TD. They are just terrible. I
hope the system never picks MIN again.

PHI killed us both. The box loves PHI, and has for years actually. But
they just look awful. Next week, if the Box wants PHI, I'm personally
calling McNabb and saying, "black QBs are no good", because that's the
only thing that seems to get him charged enough to win.

All in all, I've made the following decisions: NO moneyline bets unless
it's the top percentage pick on good lays (-200 or better). ONE parlay
pick - parlays, unless you're using a system like yours where parlays
are the majority of your bets and you've spread out your chances, lose.
They're just not good bets for the most part, but I like them, so
doing it once a week with my highest percentage possibilities could be
good. Even if my top 3 parlay looks like: BUF +3.5, DAL to win, DET to
win. That would have won me big this week.

Right now, I hate half the NFL almost as much as my fantasy football
peewee team.

My final bets ended up as:

OAK +4.5
NE -330
BUF +3.5
GB -130

Moneyline Parlay [DET, TB, NE, PIT] (fucking PIT blowing what should
have been an easy win)
Spread Parlay [TB, PHI, MIN]
CIN +7.5
NYJ -190
MIN +2