Ok so we actually agreed on 8 of the 14 games this week, and my goal was to make sure I got most of them into my top 9, so they make it into my parlays. I kept my top 3 games in their slots, since you agreed with a fairly high win %. In case your curious, the games in caps are those we agreed on, those in lower case are ones i substituted my pick over the box, and those with an *asterick are ones I went with the box over my initial pick.
1 GB -3 v. CHI (5)
2 TB +10 v. IND (4)
3 ARI -3 @ STL (6)
4 DET +3.5 @ WAS (2)
5 SEA +6 @ PIT (8)
6 dal -10 over buf (9)
7 nyg -3 over nyj (12)
8 *NO -3 over CAR (3)
9 ATL +8 over TEN (1)
10 *KC +2 over JAX (7)
11 MIA +5.5 @ HOU (11)
12 sd over den (13)
13 ne over cle (10)
14 *BAL -3 @ SF
So of the games we disagree on, here are my comments:
6 dal -10 over buf (9): I think you should reconsider this one, although it's your #9, so you probably won't bet it. You like buffalo because dallas has unexposed flaws, and because buf is a home dog. I say Dallas has no flaws that Buffalo is going to exploit. This reminds me of the NE vs BUF game last week, where the big spread is a little alarming, but in the end you need to keep in mind that the top teams are destroying the little teams, not barely squeaking by. Buf still has no defense, so it's weakness vs strength there.
7 nyg -3 over nyj (12) : The Jets, the Chargers, and the Saints are the three teams this year who, like you said, I keep waiting to suddenly "show up". Hence I am not that cofident about this game. However, the Jets haven't proven anything yet, and are coming off a terrible loss vs. buffalo. On the other hand the Giants are hot right now, coming off two big wins vs. WAS and PHI.
8 *NO -3 over CAR (3): So you think the Saints are gonna "show up" this week, eh? I'm switching my pick for you buddy. I like CAR because of what I said Monday - strong running game, and big play threat from S. Smith is a Strength against NO's lack of run defense and propensity to get beat with the long ball. DelHomme being out definitely plays into NO's hand, so I can see that. Plus the 2 weeks of gameplanning, reflection and time to get on track. Plus their home. It's go time for Reggie Bush. He can't be the clever trick play guy anymore since Deuce "2nd round fantasy bust" McAllister is gone for the year.
10 *KC +2 over JAX (7): I can see this game going either way. I am not even sure why I picked JAX the first time... mainly because KC hasn't beaten anyone that hasn't hurt themselves yet I suppose. Anyway, this is your #7, KC's at home, they are on a winning streak... I'm with you, buddy.
12 sd over den (13): Yeah this is my version of the "show up" game. You know what I'm gonna say, so I'll just leave it be.
13 ne over cle (10): You said it - bettng against NE is throwing money away.
14 *BAL -3 @ SF: I anti-heart this game and am staying miles away. You like Baltimore? fine you talked me into it.
...coming soon! the new betting strategy...
TMC
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