agree with your assessments. All of them, in fact. I'm counting on
the fact that TEN def is actually good, BUF can put together a win at
home (a la the home dog pick of BUF over NYJ a few weeks ago), and NE
just stops caring about killing a 0-5 team. The NYG game I'm staying
away from, except to be NYG to win. I think AZ can pound the ground
with Edge better than it has been, and definitely will now that Rattay
is in. They'll force Rattay to make just enough plays to win, but this
game will be Edge v. WAS. I still admit it's a long shot, but if the
game goes to the ground, I don't see it as a 9 point lay.
I'm truly hoping for a PIT implosion, but with Hines Ward back, it
gonna happen. Maybe Shanahan has used the bye week to teach D? I hope
TB should be favored in this game, I agree. And KC too, especially
LJ picking it up (even if Priest has resumed backup duties).
In terms of choosing games that won bets v. picks, I've been betting on
losers and missing some winners - I need to find a way to truly gauge
how risky a pick is. Maybe I can use that variance score to do that...