Week 5 - Final Bets

Yesterday I actually typed the following words into Google:

"How to become a bookie"

Now here's some information I found interesting. If you go to ****.com and click on 'trends', it will show you the spreads, lays and what the percentage breakdown of each game's betting is. That is, how many people are betting on ATL to cover +8. As you know, the spread is designed to induce 50% of betters to wager on each side, that way the house takes a consistent paycheck. When one side is being bet on lopsided-like, they adjust the spreads to induce more people to bet the other way. So check this out (your rank in parentheses, lower case where I picked against the box, *asterick when I picked with the box against my gut):


1 GB -3 v. CHI (5) - 92%

2 TB +10 v. IND (4) - 27%

3 ARI -3 @ STL (6) - 93%

4 DET +3.5 @ WAS (2) - 64%

5 SEA +6 @ PIT (8) - 51%

6 dal -10 over buf (9) - 97%

7 nyg -3 over nyj (12) - 93%

8 *NO -3 over CAR (3) - 81%

9 ATL +8 over TEN (1) - 31%

10 *KC +2 over JAX (7) - 52%

11 MIA +5.5 @ HOU (11) - 15%

12 sd over den (13) - 50%

13 ne over cle (10) - 84%

14 *BAL -3 @ SF - 87%

Seeing all those 80%-99% trends kinda freaked me out last night, so I rushed to lock in my parlays before the spreads changed. Actually the NYG v. NYJ game started at -3 and moved to -3.5 already, so that already cost me. If the Giants win by 3 I'm gonna be pissed. Anyway my parlays are locked in:

[GB - TB - ARI]
[GB - DET - SEA]
[TB - DAL - NYG]
[ARI - NO - ATL]
[GB - TB - ARI - SEA - DET - DAL]

On to my moneyline underdog strategy:

Actually the moneylines I listed are the bonus payouts for betting the underdog, so i am really excited:


> 1. TB +10 v. IND (+450) = 4.5-1 payout

> 2. DET +3.5 @ WAS (+165) = 1.65-1 payout

> 3. SEA +6 @ PIT (+200) = 2-1 payout

> 4. *KC +2 over JAX (+115) = 1.15-1 payout

> 5. ATL +8 over TEN (+320) = 3.2-1 payout



These are all underdogs that the box picked to cover the spread. I've
actually locked in all of these bets except ATL vs TEN. I really don't
see atlanta upsetting TEN, so I think i am gonna change it out with SD
over DEN. So far, this game's moneylines have been 'off' though. So
we'll see. I actually feel pretty good that 2 or three will upset,
especially DET and SEA. And I've gotta tell you, the TB vs IND game
has upset written all over it. Indy just lost their 2 main run
defenders: Rob Morris (LB out for the year) and Bob Sanders (S).
Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai also didn't finish the game last
week. Here comes TB, fired up to play the Champs with a power running
game and a high ranked defense. Garcia's no slouch either. I'm not
saying they should be favored, but I think this is a great upset
opportunity and a huge payout.

TMC