Friday, October 19, 2007

Week 7 - First Impressions - Break the Bank

1. So what did you mean by choosing games that won bets instead of picks? I didn't really follow the difference.

2. Wow, there are a few spread box games that make me nervous:

TEN (-1) @ HOU: VY is injured. HOU has a top ten rush defense. Shaub is real.

BUF (+3) vs BAL: I actually like Trent Edwards, but their offense scores no touchdowns. BAL, i think, is reguarly overrated, but I actually think their chances go up without McNair, who sadly is just not good anymore. I handicapped this game at BUF +6 prior to looking at the Vegas spreads.

MIA (+16.5) vs NE: Betting against NE = throwing away money.

SF (+9) @ NYG: I know this is a lot of points to lay, but these teams are going in opposite directions right now and I can definitely see NYG blow out SF at home.

ARI (+9) @ WAS: Similar situation as with sf vs nyg. backup quarterback, in this case it's Tim Rattay, and teams going in opposite directions. I can see WAS blowing them out at home.

DEN (+3) vs PIT: PIT has a top rushing attack, DEN has the #31 run defense. PIT looks like a top 3 team in all phases, DEN is tripping over itself. The only thing DEN has going is that the game is at Mile High. However, Indy went there and blew them out a couple weeks ago.

3. Spread box picks that I like:

TB (+2) @ DET: DET scares me, since you never know when they are going to put up 50 points. However, I agree with you here. I handicapped this game at TB -2, so I would have actually laid two points to bet TB in this game. Seeing them as the dog makes me happy.

KC (+3) @ OAK: KC has cost me a lot of money this year, playing spoiler. I bet against them in the SD game and the MIN game. They can definitely put a game together, and although I think OAK is on the rise, that means they'll beat bad teams, not good teams. I handicapped this game at KC -2, so once again I was pretty psyched to see KC as the dog.

4. All in! So if I stick with my all-in plan, i'm gonna pick between my top 3 favorites:

PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
TB (+2) @ DET
KC (+3) @ OAK

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