The ranks are getting better as the year goes on... note that the records ATS are better and better in the top half, which means the ranks are working. For the most part.
Now, if only I could win....
| Power Ranks | ▲▼ | %FromTop | W/L/T | ATS |
| 1 | NYG | | 0% | 4 - 0 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 |
| 2 | IND | ▲3 | 46% | 4 - 0 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 |
| 3 | JAC | ▲1 | 46% | OFF | OFF |
| 4 | NO | ▲2 | 50% | OFF | OFF |
| 5 | MIN | ▼3 | 50% | 4 - 0 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 |
| 6 | PHI | ▲23 | 56% | 1 - 1 - 0 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 7 | DEN | ▲1 | 57% | 4 - 0 - 0 | 4 - 0 - 0 |
| 8 | DAL | ▼1 | 58% | 2 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 |
| 9 | GB | | 58% | OFF | OFF |
| 10 | BAL | ▼7 | 59% | 3 - 1 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 |
| 11 | PIT | ▲2 | 64% | 2 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 12 | ATL | ▲2 | 65% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 13 | NYJ | ▼3 | 65% | 3 - 1 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 |
| 14 | SEA | ▼3 | 65% | OFF | OFF |
| 15 | HOU | ▲3 | 66% | 2 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 |
| 16 | KC | ▲7 | 67% | 0 - 3 - 0 | 0 - 3 - 0 |
| 17 | MIA | ▲9 | 67% | 1 - 3 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 18 | SF | ▲7 | 68% | 3 - 1 - 0 | 4 - 0 - 0 |
| 19 | NE | ▼4 | 69% | 3 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 |
| 20 | ARI | | 69% | 1 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 21 | WAS | ▼9 | 71% | 2 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 22 | SD | ▼1 | 72% | OFF | OFF |
| 23 | CHI | ▼1 | 72% | OFF | OFF |
| 24 | CLE | ▲8 | 72% | 0 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 25 | CIN | ▼8 | 72% | 3 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 |
| 26 | BUF | ▼7 | 72% | 1 - 3 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 |
| 27 | TEN | ▼3 | 73% | 0 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 28 | DET | ▲3 | 75% | 1 - 3 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 29 | TB | ▼1 | 75% | 0 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 30 | STL | | 77% | 0 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 31 | OAK | ▼4 | 77% | 1 - 3 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 |
| 32 | CAR | ▼16 | 80% | 0 - 3 - 0 | 0 - 3 - 0 |
So what's that mean for my bets this week? Well, here's what the stats say:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | Spd | Bet % | Bet Amt |
| 1 | IND | @ TEN | -3.5 | 31% | $23.46 |
| 2 | HOU | @ ARI | +5.5 | 14% | $13.16 |
| 3 | MIN | @ STL | -10 | 12% | $12.33 |
| 4 | CLE | @ BUF | +6 | 12% | $11.94 |
| 5 | DEN | v. NE | +3 | 9% | $10.59 |
| 6 | DAL | @ KC | -7.5 | 9% | $10.58 |
| 7 | WAS | @ CAR | +4 | 7% | $9.26 |
| 8 | PHI | v. TB | -15.5 | 6% | $8.81 |
| 9 | NYG | v. OAK | -15 |
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| 10 | PIT | @ DET | -10.5 |
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| 11 | BAL | v. CIN | -8.5 |
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| 12 | NYJ | @ MIA | -2 |
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| 13 | ATL | @ SF | +2.5 |
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and the moneyline:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | ML | Bet % | Bet Amt |
| 1 | WAS | @ CAR | +180 | 71% | $8.58 |
| 2 | ATL | @ SF | +120 | 23% | $6.15 |
| 3 | HOU | @ ARI | +190 | 6% | $5.30 |
| 4 | MIN | @ STL | -550 |
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| 5 | NYG | v. OAK | -980 |
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| 6 | PIT | @ DET | -520 |
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| 7 | BAL | v. CIN | -380 |
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| 8 | IND | @ TEN | -190 |
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| 9 | DAL | @ KC | -350 |
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| 10 | NE | @ DEN | -170 |
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| 11 | NYJ | @ MIA | -130 |
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| 12 | BUF | v. CLE | -250 |
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So the reality is that the moneyline is keeping me afloat. My method has been working: pick only underdogs that the stats favor - the hit rate is around 45%, but when it hits, I win more than I lose over the long term. For the spread picks, it's just been ugly. This week, Vegas opened up spreads for the first time this year, and it looks like even they're not sure. Everyone's so confused, I never thought I'd see the day the modeling picked a favorite -15.5. Jesus, -15.5... and I bet it. Ridiculous.
