Week 05: Rankings and Best Bets... what a wacky year

The ranks are getting better as the year goes on... note that the records ATS are better and better in the top half, which means the ranks are working. For the most part.

Now, if only I could win....

Power Ranks		▲▼	%FromTop	W/L/T	ATS
1	NYG		0%	4 - 0 - 0	3 - 1 - 0
2	IND	▲3	46%	4 - 0 - 0	3 - 1 - 0
3	JAC	▲1	46%	OFF	OFF
4	NO	▲2	50%	OFF	OFF
5	MIN	▼3	50%	4 - 0 - 0	3 - 1 - 0
6	PHI	▲23	56%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
7	DEN	▲1	57%	4 - 0 - 0	4 - 0 - 0
8	DAL	▼1	58%	2 - 2 - 0	2 - 2 - 0
9	GB		58%	OFF	OFF
10	BAL	▼7	59%	3 - 1 - 0	3 - 1 - 0
11	PIT	▲2	64%	2 - 2 - 0	1 - 3 - 0
12	ATL	▲2	65%	2 - 1 - 0	2 - 1 - 0
13	NYJ	▼3	65%	3 - 1 - 0	3 - 1 - 0
14	SEA	▼3	65%	OFF	OFF
15	HOU	▲3	66%	2 - 2 - 0	2 - 2 - 0
16	KC	▲7	67%	0 - 3 - 0	0 - 3 - 0
17	MIA	▲9	67%	1 - 3 - 0	1 - 3 - 0
18	SF	▲7	68%	3 - 1 - 0	4 - 0 - 0
19	NE	▼4	69%	3 - 1 - 0	2 - 2 - 0
20	ARI		69%	1 - 2 - 0	1 - 2 - 0
21	WAS	▼9	71%	2 - 2 - 0	1 - 3 - 0
22	SD	▼1	72%	OFF	OFF
23	CHI	▼1	72%	OFF	OFF
24	CLE	▲8	72%	0 - 4 - 0	1 - 3 - 0
25	CIN	▼8	72%	3 - 1 - 0	2 - 2 - 0
26	BUF	▼7	72%	1 - 3 - 0	2 - 2 - 0
27	TEN	▼3	73%	0 - 4 - 0	1 - 3 - 0
28	DET	▲3	75%	1 - 3 - 0	1 - 3 - 0
29	TB	▼1	75%	0 - 4 - 0	1 - 3 - 0
30	STL		77%	0 - 4 - 0	1 - 3 - 0
31	OAK	▼4	77%	1 - 3 - 0	2 - 2 - 0
32	CAR	▼16	80%	0 - 3 - 0	0 - 3 - 0

So what's that mean for my bets this week? Well, here's what the stats say:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt
1	IND	@ TEN	-3.5	31%	$23.46
2	HOU	@ ARI	+5.5	14%	$13.16
3	MIN	@ STL	-10	12%	$12.33
4	CLE	@ BUF	+6	12%	$11.94
5	DEN	v. NE	+3	9%	$10.59
6	DAL	@ KC	-7.5	9%	$10.58
7	WAS	@ CAR	+4	7%	$9.26
8	PHI	v. TB	-15.5	6%	$8.81
9	NYG	v. OAK	-15
10	PIT	@ DET	-10.5
11	BAL	v. CIN	-8.5
12	NYJ	@ MIA	-2
13	ATL	@ SF	+2.5

and the moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt
1	WAS	@ CAR	+180	71%	$8.58
2	ATL	@ SF	+120	23%	$6.15
3	HOU	@ ARI	+190	6%	$5.30
4	MIN	@ STL	-550
5	NYG	v. OAK	-980
6	PIT	@ DET	-520
7	BAL	v. CIN	-380
8	IND	@ TEN	-190
9	DAL	@ KC	-350
10	NE	@ DEN	-170
11	NYJ	@ MIA	-130
12	BUF	v. CLE	-250

So the reality is that the moneyline is keeping me afloat. My method has been working: pick only underdogs that the stats favor - the hit rate is around 45%, but when it hits, I win more than I lose over the long term. For the spread picks, it's just been ugly. This week, Vegas opened up spreads for the first time this year, and it looks like even they're not sure. Everyone's so confused, I never thought I'd see the day the modeling picked a favorite -15.5. Jesus, -15.5... and I bet it. Ridiculous.