My reasoning is based on the following statistics: cost per bet (which I fixed), and win percentage. While these are inexorably linked mathematically, I'm risk averse, so I don't quite trust my own winnings. I wanted to give myself a weekly shot at the big ticket win without risking much percentage-wise.
My theoretically best bet combination, which I'm sure will change as I get more data points, looks like this (with "asset allocations"):
1.) 4 Individual Spread Bets - 70.5%
2.) "Top 2" Team Parlay (with "Wacky Friday" vig if I can get it) - 18%
3.) "Top 7" Team Parlay - 7%
4.) "Top 9" Team Parlay - 4.5%
I'm well diversified, though there is a lot of duplication in the parlays. I've given some serious thought to switching out the 7 team parlay with a 7 team 6 point teaser (you'll see why in the win percentages below), but the payouts are just not compelling. I may change my tune in a big down week, but for now, I should stick to my guns. Here are the Box's win percentages since Week 1 of 2006 ("Tease" is 6 point teasers):
| Parlay | Tease | Ind | |
| 1 Team Bet | 0.00% | 0.00% | 87.10% |
| 2 Team Bet | 67.74% | 83.87% | 81.45% |
| 3 Team Bet | 45.16% | 67.74% | 75.81% |
| 4 Team Bet | 35.48% | 51.61% | 76.21% |
| 5 Team Bet | 25.81% | 41.94% | 70.65% |
| 6 Team Bet | 22.58% | 32.26% | 70.43% |
| 7 Team Bet | 19.35% | 22.58% | 71.43% |
| 8 Team Bet | 9.68% | 12.90% | 69.76% |
| 9 Team Bet | 6.45% | 12.90% | 66.31% |
| 10 Team Bet | 3.23% | 9.68% | 64.52% |
| 11 Team Bet | 0.00% | 6.45% | 62.61% |
| 12 Team Bet | 0.00% | 6.45% | 60.88% |
| 13 Team Bet | 0.00% | 6.45% | 59.77% |
| 14 Team Bet | 0.00% | 3.23% | 58.07% |
| 15 Team Bet | 0.00% | 3.23% | 57.65% |
Not so bad, I would say. Those results are through Week 14 of 2007. It clearly delineates what you would expect: it's easier to pick single teams (since you're chance of victory is hypothetically 50/50), teasers add a nice edge to straight parlays, and parlays are longshots but high payouts. With this sort of win percentages, the "cost per bet" as outlined previously should have looked like the below chart - I found a few errors in parenthesis and actually I was pointing to the wrong odds in some places:
| Prog | 6 Pt Tease | 6.5 Pt Tease | 7 Pt Tease | Chp Parl | Reg Parl | Ind Bets | |
| 1 Team Bet | $0.66 | ||||||
| 2 Team Bet | $0.60 | $0.54 | $0.48 | $1.57 | $1.44 | $0.55 | |
| 3 Team Bet | $0.90 | $0.76 | $0.63 | $2.34 | $2.16 | $0.45 | |
| 4 Team Bet | $1.24 | $1.06 | $0.81 | $0.55 | $4.15 | $2.90 | $0.45 |
| 5 Team Bet | $2.04 | $1.31 | $1.10 | $0.89 | $6.23 | $5.71 | $0.35 |
| 6 Team Bet | $3.41 | $1.26 | $1.10 | $0.94 | $11.42 | $8.26 | $0.34 |
| 7 Team Bet | $7.52 | $1.48 | $1.26 | $1.03 | $19.90 | $13.71 | $0.36 |
| 8 Team Bet | $5.83 | $1.06 | $0.68 | $0.42 | $19.42 | $13.61 | $0.33 |
| 9 Team Bet | $8.21 | $1.71 | $1.06 | $0.68 | $25.58 | $18.42 | $0.27 |
| 10 Team Bet | $7.88 | $1.52 | $1.03 | $0.55 | $24.97 | $21.61 | $0.23 |
| 11 Team Bet | -$2.04 | $1.32 | $0.68 | $0.35 | -$1.00 | -$1.00 | $0.20 |
| 12 Team Bet | -$0.88 | $2.29 | $1.32 | $0.68 | -$1.00 | -$1.00 | $0.16 |
| 13 Team Bet | $3.90 | $2.29 | $1.32 | $0.14 | |||
| 14 Team Bet | $2.26 | $1.45 | $0.65 | $0.11 | |||
| 15 Team Bet | $3.87 | $2.26 | $1.45 | $0.10 |
The light green highlight a.) straight parlays with 20% or better win percentage, b.) teasers with 50% or better win percentages, and c.) individual bets with 75% or better win percentages. That to me was the money spot, where the payouts were high but the risk was low(er). Again, I decided to stay away from teasers, as it's just obvious how much less they payout. With the payouts as they are and the win percentages I have, if I hit a 15 team 6 point teaser, I'd be compensated the same as if I hit a 4 team regular parlay because of the payout structure. So don't fool yourself: you PAY for those points. And you pay big.
Hypothetically, I'd be best off putting big dollars on the number one individual pick and bet like so:
| Best Bets | |
| Progressive | 9 Team Bet |
| 6 Pt Teaser | 13 Team Bet |
| 6.5 Pt Teaser | 13 Team Bet |
| 7 Pt Teaser | 15 Team Bet |
| Cheap Parlay | 9 Team Bet |
| Regular Parlay | 10 Team Bet |
| Individual Bets | 1 Team Bet |
And yes, if I did that, my winnings would be very very nice. But when I lose, not only do I lose - I lose 100% of my bet. It's hard to swallow, despite the winning trend. Maybe when I grow a pair next year, this is exactly how I'll bet. For now, I'm content with a more diversified approach. That said, going into this week, this is how my picks look:
| Bets for Week 15 |
| Spread: HOU +1 (-110) v. DEN - $20.19 to win $18.35 |
| Spread: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB - $23.42 to win $21.29 |
| Spread: JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT - $16.75 to win $15.23 |
| Spread: OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND - $17.14 to win $15.58 |
| Parlay: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN - $20.00 to win $52.00 |
| Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $7.50 to win $671.33 |
| Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, NO -3.5 (-110) v. ARI, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, BUF +5.5 (-110) v. CLE, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $5.00 to win $1644.39 |
| Bet Totals: | $110.00 |
| Potential Winnings: | $2,438.17 |
Redundant? Yes. Ridiculous? Absolutely. A winner? Of course... not? I don't know, but the bets are in, and we shall see. Don't let me down now, Box!
