When I rewrote all the errant parentheses, here's how it looks. Using the same assumptions as my previous post, the big winner? The cheap ass parlay ("crazy parlay Friday" for Sportsbook.com, my current book of choice). Time and time again, it seems to win the most in the long run compared to similar bets. I'm not sure how fully I believe that yet, but it would appear to be the case. Then again, it took me a while to believe in gravity, so I can be slow on the uptake. I could use a peer review of my numbers, so any interested parties, comment or email me and we can work it out.
Here are the charts at 45% (terrible), 52.38% (breakeven), and 55% (a moderate winner). Note that I changed the "edge" of the teaser parlays slightly if for no other reason than it's basically an arbitrary number right now. The "edge" was pretty high in the last series, since the difference between 52.38% and 53% is actually MASSIVE in terms of profitability. So I brought it down to more moderate levels.
| 0.33% | 0.66% | 1.00% | Ind Bets | ||||
| Prog | 6 Pt Tease | 6.5 Pt Tease | 7 Pt Tease | Chp Parl | Reg Parl | 45.00% | |
| 1 Team Bet | -$0.14 | ||||||
| 2 Team Bet | -$0.11 | -$0.12 | -$0.13 | -$0.23 | -$0.27 | -$0.28 | |
| 3 Team Bet | $0.00 | -$0.01 | -$0.02 | -$0.33 | -$0.36 | -$0.42 | |
| 4 Team Bet | -$0.79 | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.00 | -$0.41 | -$0.55 | -$0.56 |
| 5 Team Bet | -$0.83 | $0.04 | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$0.48 | -$0.52 | -$0.70 |
| 6 Team Bet | -$0.86 | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$0.54 | -$0.66 | -$0.85 |
| 7 Team Bet | -$0.93 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$0.60 | -$0.72 | -$0.99 |
| 8 Team Bet | -$0.94 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.01 | -$0.65 | -$0.75 | -$1.13 |
| 9 Team Bet | -$0.95 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0.69 | -$0.77 | -$1.27 |
| 10 Team Bet | -$0.97 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 | -$0.73 | -$0.76 | -$1.41 |
| 11 Team Bet | -$0.98 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$0.76 | -$0.83 | -$1.55 |
| 12 Team Bet | -$0.98 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$0.79 | -$0.88 | -$1.69 |
| 13 Team Bet | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$1.83 | |||
| 14 Team Bet | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$1.97 | |||
| 15 Team Bet | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -$2.11 |
Breakeven:
| 0.33% | 0.66% | 1.00% | Ind Bets | ||||
| Prog | 6 Pt Tease | 6.5 Pt Tease | 7 Pt Tease | Chp Parl | Reg Parl | 52.38% | |
| 1 Team Bet | $0.00 | ||||||
| 2 Team Bet | $0.03 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.04 | -$0.01 | $0.00 | |
| 3 Team Bet | $0.16 | $0.14 | $0.11 | $0.06 | $0.01 | $0.00 | |
| 4 Team Bet | -$0.64 | $0.18 | $0.15 | $0.12 | $0.09 | -$0.17 | $0.00 |
| 5 Team Bet | -$0.67 | $0.16 | $0.15 | $0.13 | $0.10 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| 6 Team Bet | -$0.69 | $0.12 | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.14 | -$0.15 | $0.00 |
| 7 Team Bet | -$0.83 | $0.11 | $0.10 | $0.09 | $0.17 | -$0.18 | $0.00 |
| 8 Team Bet | -$0.83 | $0.09 | $0.07 | $0.06 | $0.20 | -$0.14 | $0.00 |
| 9 Team Bet | -$0.84 | $0.06 | $0.05 | $0.04 | $0.22 | -$0.11 | $0.00 |
| 10 Team Bet | -$0.90 | $0.04 | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.25 | $0.09 | $0.00 |
| 11 Team Bet | -$0.91 | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.28 | -$0.10 | $0.00 |
| 12 Team Bet | -$0.91 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.31 | -$0.23 | $0.00 |
| 13 Team Bet | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| 14 Team Bet | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| 15 Team Bet | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
And the winner:
| 0.33% | 0.66% | 1.00% | Ind Bets | ||||
| Prog | 6 Pt Tease | 6.5 Pt Tease | 7 Pt Tease | Chp Parl | Reg Parl | 55.00% | |
| 1 Team Bet | $0.05 | ||||||
| 2 Team Bet | $0.08 | $0.06 | $0.05 | $0.15 | $0.09 | $0.10 | |
| 3 Team Bet | $0.22 | $0.19 | $0.16 | $0.23 | $0.16 | $0.15 | |
| 4 Team Bet | -$0.58 | $0.24 | $0.20 | $0.16 | $0.33 | $0.01 | $0.20 |
| 5 Team Bet | -$0.61 | $0.22 | $0.20 | $0.18 | $0.41 | $0.31 | $0.25 |
| 6 Team Bet | -$0.61 | $0.16 | $0.16 | $0.15 | $0.52 | $0.13 | $0.30 |
| 7 Team Bet | -$0.80 | $0.16 | $0.15 | $0.13 | $0.64 | $0.16 | $0.35 |
| 8 Team Bet | -$0.79 | $0.13 | $0.11 | $0.10 | $0.77 | $0.26 | $0.40 |
| 9 Team Bet | -$0.80 | $0.10 | $0.08 | $0.06 | $0.90 | $0.39 | $0.45 |
| 10 Team Bet | -$0.87 | $0.07 | $0.06 | $0.05 | $1.04 | $0.78 | $0.50 |
| 11 Team Bet | -$0.87 | $0.05 | $0.04 | $0.03 | $1.19 | $0.53 | $0.55 |
| 12 Team Bet | -$0.89 | $0.04 | $0.03 | $0.02 | $1.35 | $0.38 | $0.60 |
| 13 Team Bet | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.65 | |||
| 14 Team Bet | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.70 | |||
| 15 Team Bet | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.75 |
So the biggest, hardest to hit parlay with the giant payout is most worth it over time. Again, I would guess over a LONG time. The Box, in the last 2 seasons, has hit 12 win weeks only 4 times. And there's no guarantee you would pick the right 12 teams. I'm not sure how I could even figure that in. I would expect that, if you bet one 12 team parlay per week, you might hit one every few years or so. With a wacky Friday payout of 3066 to 1, that's why it's worth it. But the discipline and patience involved, plus the pure luck, are totally and utterly ridiculous. At $5 minimum bets, assuming you get lucky and it takes 2 seasons to hit once, it would only take a payroll $170. When it hits, it's worth an astounding $15,330.
I don't know about you, but I'm definitely not disciplined enough for that kind of betting. And I'm not that patient. These charts do make an argument for a.) betting a few 2 or 3 team parlays on wacky Friday every week, and b.) sticking to the winningest strategy (which for the Box is the top 5 spread picks) above all else.
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