Brutal Week 15, reminds me of week 5. Maybe I avoid weeks ending in 5 next season? Anyway, here's the breakdown for Week 16:
VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER............... DIFF.
PIT (-7.5) at STL.....PIT(-7) ..................... 0.5
DAL (-11)at CAR...... DAL(-14) .................... 3.0
CLE(-3.0) at CIN..... CLE (-6) .................... 3.0
GB(-9.0) at CHI...... GB(-14) ..................... 5.0
HOU (+7.0) at IND.... HOU (+6)..................... 1.0
KC (+5.0) at DET..... KC (+6)...................... 1.0
NYG(-3) at BUF....... NYG (+2)..................... 5.0
OAK (+13) at JAX..... JAX (-9)..................... 4.0
PHI (+3) at NO....... PHI (+3)..................... 0.0
ATL (-10) at ARI..... ATL (+9)..................... 1.0
TB (-7) at SF........ TB(-11)...................... 4.0
MIA (+22) at NE...... MIA (+12).................... 10.0
BAL (+8) at SEA...... BAL (+6)..................... 2.0
NYJ (+8.5) at TEN.... NYJ (+7)..................... 1.5
WAS (+6.5) at MIN.... WAS(+5)...................... 1.5
DEN (+8) at SD ...... DEN (+11).................... 3.0
Not as much red as I've had in the past, but still plenty to talk about. As usual, I love the favorites, while The Box loves the underdogs. Vegas is hitting just shy of 50% on the year, so it really doesn't matter which way you play, as long as you know which games to play. Here are my favorites:
1. CLE -3 vs. CIN: CLE has been a stalwart this year. They are consistently underrated, and this week continues the trend. CIN has shown zero this year, and they are out of the playoff picture. CLE is racing to hold onto the #6 seed, plus they can catch PIT should they falter down the stretch. Talent + motivation = CLE wins. So the only question is what is the spread? It's only a field goal, baby. Bet it straight up, in parlays and in teasers.
2. TB -7 vs SF: SF beat CIN last week. whoopty doo. TB, like cleveland has been a mad capper darling this year, and I don't see any reason SF keeps up. Garcia is back healthy, the running game stays strong, and SF's debut of Shaun something or other last week don't mean squat here. Like it. Love it.
3. MIN -6.5 vs WAS: WAS upset the Giants last week. But MIN is a bad matchup for them. Todd Collins had a brilliant 1st game stepping into the lineup, but he was TERRIBLE last week, which is more in line with what is expected from a 35 yr old backup. WAS won't be able to run against MIN's #1 run defense, and Collins isn't gonna win the game for them. SO! how much will MIN win by? Spread is less than a TD, so I love it.
4. BUF +3 vs NYG: We all see the Giants free-falling. Can they salvage the season by winning this game? Maybe. BUF just got knocked out of the playoffs, so their will may be lowered... But if you look at the season, BUF doesn't lose games by much, plus they are the hotter team right now. Plus they are at home. Plus they have a bunch of young players trying to prove they should start next season. Did I mention Shockey is out for the year, Burres can barely walk and Eli doesn't have anyone else to throw to? I'm taking the dog, here. Byf +9 in a teaser looks like a winner, too.
5. GB -9 vs CHI: You know I love GB, the only question is how close can CHI get? I think we all saw why Kyle Orton is the 3rd stringer last week, and GB has done well covering large spreads this year. The talent and emotion both side with GB, so I'm trusting them to win this game by two scores. GB -3 in a teaser is awesome, also, no way the win this game by less than a field goal.
6. SD -8 vs DEN: Sort of a last minute insert, here, but SD is rolling, Tomlinson is kicking arse and DEN is falling rapidly. Game is in SD and I don't see DEN stopping SD's running game and play-action. SD -2 in a teaser is also a sweet deal, bypassing the critical 7, 4 and 3 point critical points (most likely point differentials).
7. HOU +7 vs IND: I'm so-so on this one, but IND hasn't been blowing out teams, and HOU remains another favorite of mine. I am bothered by IND being at home, so I may drop this pick. The Box likes it, though, so I may have to stick it out. The teaser doesn't give me any more comfort, so I would stay away unless you love IND -1 to win it.
8. TN -2.5 vs NYJ: This is the teaser-spread. The Titans won't get upset, they need this game too badly and young actually looks good. Teasing the spread to under a field goal is huge, here.
9. PIT -1.5 vs STL: Another teaser-only bet. PIT needs this game to stay ahead of CLE, and STL just hasn't played this year. Their run defense is terrible, so Willie Parker should have a field day. Not to mention PIT has lost two in a row, so I fully expect them to come up with vengeance.
Final picks coming up tomorrow...
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