Thursday, December 20, 2007

Week 16 - True Win Percentages, Sighs Abound

So as I mentioned in my last post, I found a major flaw in my programming. A major flaw. What was it you ask? Let me tell you and rant about my moron-acy.

On a weekly basis, I enter the scores into the Box to update my performance. I went to enter the scores from Week 15 and update my performance when I noticed something odd happened -- my picks changed. Magic? I think not. So I deleted the scores and checked my picks, and they were back to the picks I posted here. "Hmmm..." I thought. That's odd. So I went back through my math, picking around, thinking maybe I just entered something wrong. Lo and behold, my stupidocity went far beyond a wrong entry.

Part of my pick algorithm figures in historical pick win percentages. For instance, if my number 6 pick historically is winning 60% and my number 5 pick is winning 50%, the Box is trained to say, "that's weird, we should switch them". As more data comes in, the Box should get more accurate as the best picks float to the top. It's a simple way to train the box using wins and losses, but it's been working effectively. This week, I noticed that the Box is not using historical win percentages (as in, based on overall win percentages on Week 14, the Box is trained for Week 15), it was using live win percentages (as in, as scores come in, the Box changes current picks to look like it wins more). That explains my win percentage of a ridiculously astounding 87% for my number one pick - the Box keeps CHANGING the number one picks going backwards to make them look like winners.


So, I have fixed the error. And I have cried and lied in the fetal position. I need a binky. Is all lost? Not even close.

Here are my true win percentages (note: these are before modification using the financials - actual win percentage should be slightly higher), and they are far more realistic:

Parlay Tease Ind
1 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 60.61%
2 Team Bet 39.39% 69.70% 59.85%
3 Team Bet 18.18% 48.48% 53.54%
4 Team Bet 9.09% 39.39% 50.38%
5 Team Bet 3.03% 27.27% 50.61%
6 Team Bet 0.00% 18.18% 50.76%
7 Team Bet 0.00% 15.15% 52.16%
8 Team Bet 0.00% 15.15% 52.08%
9 Team Bet 0.00% 15.15% 51.35%
10 Team Bet 0.00% 6.06% 51.82%
11 Team Bet 0.00% 3.03% 52.89%
12 Team Bet 0.00% 3.03% 52.90%
13 Team Bet 0.00% 3.03% 52.91%
14 Team Bet 0.00% 3.45% 52.59%
15 Team Bet 0.00% 5.26% 52.11%

If the glass was half empty, I just lost 27% of my number one pick win rate. If the glass is half full, 60% is INCREDIBLY PROFITABLE if you bet real money. So it's really bitter sweet. The teaser bets are a little misleading - I hit a 15 team teaser once last season, and it's skewed the results slightly. If you remove my 2006 numbers, my numbers get much uglier for 2007:

Parlay Tease Ind
1 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 50.00%
2 Team Bet 31.25% 62.50% 51.56%
3 Team Bet 12.50% 31.25% 45.83%
4 Team Bet 6.25% 31.25% 46.09%
5 Team Bet 6.25% 12.50% 46.88%
6 Team Bet 0.00% 6.25% 47.40%
7 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 47.77%
8 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 48.05%
9 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 46.18%
10 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 45.94%
11 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 45.74%
12 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 45.31%
13 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 45.91%
14 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 47.19%
15 Team Bet 0.00% 0.00% 44.81%

The favorite trend is killing the Box (and Vegas, for that matter - I read that handicappers can't figure out how high to set spreads, since this year the faves are just killing everything). But despite losing, the teasers win. And win with a buffer underneath them. Which tells me that the Box is roughly 6 points away from a killer win percentage this year. Sigh.

The real underlying issue now is confidence. My self confidence is mildly shattered. Well, that's a lie. I'm a cocky bastard. It might be sprained a bit, but nothing some HGH can't fix.

So the question now is, what to bet? Based on these win percentages, this is what I should do:

1.) 2 Individual Spread bets
2.) 2 Team Parlay (cheap if I can get it)
3.) 4 Team Teaser

That's right, the teaser. The teaser I so ardently mocked turns out to be my most profitable bet. Expect to see it this week in my bets, as I swallow my pride and go for the bucks.

Stay tuned for later today, and don't forget if the Steelers/Rams are in your line up, BET TODAY, it's crappy football Thursday on NFL Network!

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