Thursday, December 13, 2007

Week 15 - What's that uncomfortable feeeling? Oh, it's my bets

Well Excelius, another week where we are staring each other down from opposite sides of the fence. A chain link fence, really. 'Cause if it were one of those wooden ones we couldn't see through it and would mostly be staring down lumber instead of each other... but I digress.

Yes... Staring each other down. I've got 9 games I'm interested in, first the ones we agree on:

1. ATL +13.5 vs TB - Earlier in the week I would have bet the other way, but then the coach quit, players were on the airwaves pissed as all get-out (which is a lot, i'm told), the spread shifted 3.5 points and The Box predicted an ATL cover. I'm on board, my friend.

This one could work straight up, or in a teaser, pushing the spread to +19.5. I wouldn't put them in a parlay since the risk of this team simply falling apart is too high to link them with other games.

2. JAX +3.5 vs PIT- This game is making me more and more nervous. NE beat PIT using the spread offense, and completely avoiding running into PIT's #1 run defense. JAX isn't an aerial team, so they will be running right into the teeth of PIT. The strength of JAX's defense is their run defense, also. BUT! Ben, Ward and Holmes can put up points through the air. More so than Garrard and the scrubs he has to throw to. I think I'm backing off this game, despite the fact that we agree on it in theory. I can see throwing this game into a teaser, figuring the game stays relatively close and JAX should win or cover the 9.5 points you would get.

3. NO -3.5 vs ARI- I am really sad you agreed with me here. ARI falling into my multiple personality team category, and NO not exactly ringing the Consistency Bell (it's down the street from the Liberty Bell) makes me uneasy about this one, too. I don't see an advantage is using teasers in this game, since if ARI does upset, your odds only give NO 2.5 points, not nearly enough of a cushion to warrant the lower teaser payout.

4. SEA -7 vs CAR- Hey! you picked a favorite! amazing. This is my favorite pick of the week. SEA is red hot, CAR is ice cold, and the spread is only a TD. I love this game in all bets. Teaser, straight up and in parlays. Bank on this one, folks.

5. PHI +10 vs DAL- McNabb is back. DET showed DAL can be beaten if your linemen don't try to pick up fumbles. PHI can play close to high-power teams, just ask the Patriots. All this points to a closer game than they are getting credit for. Having said that, betting against Dallas is risky, since they are as likely as the Pats to go and blow someone out. Because of that I don't think a teaser or a parlay is worth it here. Bet 'em straight up or not at all.

....and the games we disagree on:

6. IND -10 vs OAK: I love this game. You love this game. The box is crazy-talking. Take IND all over the place in this one - straight, teasers, parlays. Good stuff.

7. MIN -10 vs CHI: I'm flipping my opinion on this one. CHI is starting 3rd string Kyle Orton this week. CHI lost to WAS by 8 points last week. MIN is rolling over opponents. I definitely like this game in a Teaser, and I can see it in parlays also.

8. BAL -3.5 vs MIA: This is such a low spread I have to support BAL. The only logic against Baltimore I can come up with is that MIA has to beat somebody. But that's not good enough for me. I like this game in all bets.

9. GB -9.5 vs STL: Another bully game I love. Definitely use it in a teaser, STL isn't gonna get that close.

I'm gonna review these games, and get you my picks by tomorrow.

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