Thursday, December 6, 2007

Week 14 - Bow Down to Beta - Capper comments on the Box

Well that's more like it, Matty. Make those picks that I completely disagree with. There's a lot of comfort in having the planets back in alignment, don't you think?

It's not so much that I disagree with the teams you picked, but which games you bet on. Here are your picks:

1. SD -0.01 v. TEN Away
2. ARI +7 v. SEA Away - Bet Soon
3. PIT +10 v. NE Away - Bet Soon
4. STL +6.5 v. CIN Away
5. KC +6.5 v. DEN Away

I can't fault you for any of your team choices, but these are games that seem to have a lot of uncertainty in them. In fact only the PIT v NE and STL v CIN have games involving teams that are in the top half of the league in consistency (based on your Beta rankings), and in each of the games (exception: PIT), you're putting your money on the MORE volatile team. Check out your picks with the Betas added:

1. SD -0.01 v. TEN
(28)............... (22)

2. ARI +7 v. SEA
(20)............. (13)

3. PIT +10 v. NE
(6)................ (12)

4. STL +6.5 v. CIN
(15)................. (7)

5. KC +6.5 v. DEN
(30).............. (18)

I'm not sure what your method is for your final picks, but I would expect higher success in games that history shows would be less volatile. Any thoughts on why the box doesn't weigh volatility more?

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