Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Week 14 - Dropping and Double Down

I'll do you one better Capper, let Excelcius show you the way. Here are the games you tagged as low beta with "expected point differential" based on average points scored this season - the first column is the average points per game this season, the rank is the Beta rank for the GAME, and Pt Diff is the expected point differential:

DET 22.3 Rank: 1
DAL 32.9 Pt Diff: 10.7

PIT 24.7 Rank: 4
NE 39.1 Pt Diff: 14.4

STL 16.3 Rank: 6
CIN 24.3 Pt Diff: 7.9

SF 13.7 Rank: 3
MIN 23.2 Pt Diff: 9.5

BAL 17.2 Rank: 2
IND 28.1 Pt Diff: 10.9

Now remember, the Rams were without Jackson up until about two weeks ago, so their average is lower than it should be now. Also, the Vikings got Peterson back, so they should actually make up a little ground for the weeks they couldn't score. But you'll note that Vegas actually is on or right near most of these spreads. Actually, pretty AMAZINGLY close. Here are my pick ranks for these games with spreads:

7. STL +7 v. CIN Away - Bet Soon
8. PIT +13 v. NE Away - Bet Soon
11. SF +8.5 v. MIN @Home
13. BAL +9.5 v. IND @Home
15. DET +10.5 v. DAL @Home

Capper, you may have discovered a wonderful way to check a "pre vegas" spread! This may be a new betting method! Are you a genius? Yet to be seen. Are you at least mildly entertaining? In my book, hell yes.

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